Sean Miller
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Re: Sean Miller
The industry means the announcing industry? What f'n industry is he talking about?
Re: Sean Miller
Not only will it hamstring recruiting, encourage transfer, it will also send a message to a future hire that this place will let you dangle in the wind. This guy has NO IDEA how to deal with coach or athletic department or people. It will also lose any big donors we have as no one thinks that someone should be treated like this.
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Re: Sean Miller
I wouldn't take his comments today seriously. He wants to fire Miller and he either will or he defers to the boosters and resigns him. I don't know which way this will go.
If I had to make a guess today I'd say Sean is gone, but it won't be hashed out until towards the end of the tourney.
Re: Sean Miller
What does that mean. The college basketball industry as a whole? Coaches, player, administrators, ball boys, announcers, writers. Who is considered in the college basketball industry? I'm sure he sampled the whole industry. Just protects the ESPN angle.
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Re: Sean Miller
... He probably is referring to Vital's Twitter...TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:36 pmWhat does that mean. The college basketball industry as a whole? Coaches, player, administrators, ball boys, announcers, writers. Who is considered in the college basketball industry? I'm sure he sampled the whole industry. Just protects the ESPN angle.
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Re: Sean Miller
All of it.TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:36 pmWhat does that mean. The college basketball industry as a whole? Coaches, player, administrators, ball boys, announcers, writers. Who is considered in the college basketball industry? I'm sure he sampled the whole industry. Just protects the ESPN angle.
Coaches, players, journalists, announcers, administrators, your mom, my dad, all of it. Doesn't mean they're all right about it, but ask anyone involved with college basketball and the rumor is Sean is done.
Re: Sean Miller
What coaches is Robbins friends with that we need to worry about? Please include high school PE coaches, YMCA, etc. on that list...
Last edited by mofo on Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Sean Miller
The end of which tourney? PAC?ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:32 pmI wouldn't take his comments today seriously. He wants to fire Miller and he either will or he defers to the boosters and resigns him. I don't know which way this will go.
If I had to make a guess today I'd say Sean is gone, but it won't be hashed out until towards the end of the tourney.
Re: Sean Miller
What makes you say he wants to fire Miller? I can't think of a player besides Koloko who would stay. They are young in their careers and this new recruiting strategy will not have time to see if it pans out. NCAA is about to allow one transfer w/o penalty and if a coach leaves that is almost always a approved waver. The other thing is Sean may choose to leave on his own if no extension is granted.ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:32 pmI wouldn't take his comments today seriously. He wants to fire Miller and he either will or he defers to the boosters and resigns him. I don't know which way this will go.
If I had to make a guess today I'd say Sean is gone, but it won't be hashed out until towards the end of the tourney.
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Re: Sean Miller
From every angle right now it sucks to be us.
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
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Re: Sean Miller
Sean has nowhere to go or at least nowhere to the level of Arizona. He's not going anywhere and he's also not going to leave 2.5 million in salary on the table, unless you're implying he'd just leave after his contract were up. If it gets to that point Arizona isn't going to resign him anyways.TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:45 pmWhat makes you say he wants to fire Miller? I can't think of a player besides Koloko who would stay. They are young in their careers and this new recruiting strategy will not have time to see if it pans out. NCAA is about to allow one transfer w/o penalty and if a coach leaves that is almost always a approved waver. The other thing is Sean may choose to leave on his own if no extension is granted.ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:32 pmI wouldn't take his comments today seriously. He wants to fire Miller and he either will or he defers to the boosters and resigns him. I don't know which way this will go.
If I had to make a guess today I'd say Sean is gone, but it won't be hashed out until towards the end of the tourney.
As far as Robbins goes I've heard he at the very least wants to seriously explore canning him. The boosters are resisting against him on that. The basketball boosters have more say than the football boosters do of course, but Robbins honestly probably doesn't give a shit.
Re: Sean Miller
For some people pride means more than money. Sean impresses me as one of those guys. Do you really think that the money is a motivating factor for him? Robbins needs to make a decision one way or another NOW. If not we can't start a serious search for another coach, no recruiting and loss of current players, and boosters that are seriously needed right now are gone. It truly will suck to be us.........
Re: Sean Miller
Robbins will end up extending Miller, but what a dumb route he’s taken.
I fly like a hawk, or better yet an eagle--a seagull. I sniff suckers out like a beagle...My ego is off and running and gone, Cause I'm about the best and if you diss than that's wrong
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Re: Sean Miller
If Miller is fired, the reactions on here are going to be must-see TV.
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- Alieberman
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Re: Sean Miller
If AZ fires Miller... who gets to a Final Four first..... Miller or Arizona?
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Re: Sean Miller
There is no reason that exists today to fire Sean Miller.
Therefore it will probably happen.
We live in the Upside Down.
Therefore it will probably happen.
We live in the Upside Down.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: Sean Miller
I have to believe he'd be radioactive if fired in terms of how he was viewed for other jobs. No NCAA program is hiring him with a NOA against him.ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:17 pmHe's not leaving over $2.5 million dollars to not go and coach elsewhere.
If Robbins pulls this trigger, it's one more mistake in a line of them.
Re: Sean Miller
Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:20 pm If AZ fires Miller... who gets to a Final Four first..... Miller or Arizona?
Neither...
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Re: Sean Miller
Isn't Bill Self going into the last year of his contract? Kansas has done a lot better than Arizona since this whole FBI thing, are their fans going this crazy over an extension?
Last edited by gronk4heisman on Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sean Miller
No, because they'd land Chris Beard or whoever the hell they wanted if they fire Bill Self.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:33 pm Isn't Bill Self going into the last year of his contract? Kansas has done a lot better Arizona since this whole FBI thing, are their fans going this crazy over an extension?
Who is Arizona going to end up with? That's our issue and it's our burden to bear. We have financial issues, which will only be further complicated by pissing off the basketball boosters. If Kansas moves on from Self, they'd be fine on all fronts.
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Re: Sean Miller
Choo, I can not follow what you want. Do you want him fired or extended? I thought two weeks ago you were the conductor of the fire him train now I am not sure where you sit?
Re: Sean Miller
Precisely why Miller will be re signed, but Robbins isn’t in a hurryChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:34 pmNo, because they'd land Chris Beard or whoever the hell they wanted if they fire Bill Self.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:33 pm Isn't Bill Self going into the last year of his contract? Kansas has done a lot better Arizona since this whole FBI thing, are their fans going this crazy over an extension?
Who is Arizona going to end up with? That's our issue and it's our burden to bear. We have financial issues, which will only be further complicated by pissing off the basketball boosters. If Kansas moves on from Self, they'd be fine on all fronts.
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Re: Sean Miller
I think it's best for both parties to move on to be fair, but I don't think there's a winning situation here. I truly don't know what level of candidate we could pull and giving Sean a couple more years may make the most sense. Either way IMO it's not going to get any better any time soon whether we keep Sean or let him go.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:37 pm Choo, I can not follow what you want. Do you want him fired or extended? I thought two weeks ago you were the conductor of the fire him train now I am not sure where you sit?
Re: Sean Miller
I just want this to end. Either extend him or fire him and move on for a few years. Christy almighty
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Re: Sean Miller
I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay, which admittedly is very short sighted. I think that Sean has serious limitations when it comes to player development and making the most of the roster he has. I am honestly fine with keeping him or replacing him and just hope that our solid foundation and tradition can help be there to lift up our replacement. I am of the minority that is not deeply entrenched one way or the other which works for a fan, but looks pretty shitty from an administration.
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Re: Sean Miller
I don't think either party can do better right now and any separation would hurt both parties.ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:39 pmI think it's best for both parties to move on to be fair, but I don't think there's a winning situation here. I truly don't know what level of candidate we could pull and giving Sean a couple more years may make the most sense. Either way IMO it's not going to get any better any time soon whether we keep Sean or let him go.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:37 pm Choo, I can not follow what you want. Do you want him fired or extended? I thought two weeks ago you were the conductor of the fire him train now I am not sure where you sit?
I do think if we resolve the IARP without significant additional penalties, including no direct penalty to Miller, and our young core pans out like I think they can, I think we may be in place for a better separation in 2-3 years. I like Miller, but I'd be ok with that option too.
Re: Sean Miller
Neither.Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:20 pm If AZ fires Miller... who gets to a Final Four first..... Miller or Arizona?
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Re: Sean Miller
“Coach Miller is our coach," Robbins said. "We’re working with him about remaining our coach, obviously. We’re very eager to find out of all of those allegations. We’ll have our opportunity to address those, but we have not heard from the IARP. So, the IARP is going through this process. They will be the final word. There’s no appeal process with the IARP, but we will have a chance to address the new notice of allegations that will come from the IARP.
“... I’m not sure what the timing is gonna be. We hope as soon as possible. That we can get past this as a university, coach Miller and his family and basketball program can move forward and look forward. He’s out there recruiting. I think signing day is coming up soon. We’ve got a really good team. They’re young but good, and we’re eager to move forward and get the final chapter of this now almost four-year saga over. But, coach Miller is our coach. I talked to him last week, and we want to move forward to continue to make progress and keep our team together. Give him the ability to go out and recruit players, and plan for next year."
"I don't expect anything," Miller said when asked after the loss to Oregon what his expectations are about having the matter of his contract and future resolved. "I know now that the season is over I'm gonna have the opportunity to talk to Dr. Robbins and Dave Heeke, and I look forward to having the opportunity to do that. When that time happens I think that I'll certainly know a lot more."
“... I’m not sure what the timing is gonna be. We hope as soon as possible. That we can get past this as a university, coach Miller and his family and basketball program can move forward and look forward. He’s out there recruiting. I think signing day is coming up soon. We’ve got a really good team. They’re young but good, and we’re eager to move forward and get the final chapter of this now almost four-year saga over. But, coach Miller is our coach. I talked to him last week, and we want to move forward to continue to make progress and keep our team together. Give him the ability to go out and recruit players, and plan for next year."
"I don't expect anything," Miller said when asked after the loss to Oregon what his expectations are about having the matter of his contract and future resolved. "I know now that the season is over I'm gonna have the opportunity to talk to Dr. Robbins and Dave Heeke, and I look forward to having the opportunity to do that. When that time happens I think that I'll certainly know a lot more."
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Re: Sean Miller
I wonder how many will leave if the Cats get an extended post season ban? I imagine the NCAA will give any player a waiver who wants to leave. If there is a 5 year post season ban, no matter how unlikely, I imagine they will all bail. Even 2 years is an incredible amount of time for a college basketball player.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay
No chance at ever playing the in second biggest US sporting event after the Super Bowl? If that was my son playing, I would recommend they go elsewhere. Especially with Miller's fondness for scheduling cupcakes such as CSU and directional schools, outside of one or two marquee games like Gonzaga.
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Re: Sean Miller
I think we all need to prepare the next couple of years are going to suck if Miller is the coach or isn't the coach. What sucks is if Miller isn't the answer, the program is too toxic for an established name to uproot and move to Tucson, but also tantalizing enough for an up and comer to make a significant stake in their career development especially if they come here knowing they won't play in the tournament. It could be very much like Penn State football who hired Bill O'Brien and he jumped to the NFL after two seasons. And, Penn State won the Big Ten under Franklin in his third season.
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Re: Sean Miller
Chances are minimal this is decided before next year.Merkin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:31 pmI wonder how many will leave if the Cats get an extended post season ban? I imagine the NCAA will give any player a waiver who wants to leave. If there is a 5 year post season ban, no matter how unlikely, I imagine they will all bail. Even 2 years is an incredible amount of time for a college basketball player.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay
No chance at ever playing the in second biggest US sporting event after the Super Bowl? If that was my son playing, I would recommend they go elsewhere. Especially with Miller's fondness for scheduling cupcakes such as CSU and directional schools, outside of one or two marquee games like Gonzaga.
Memphis submitted their case in March, 2020 and no decision a year later. We submitted in December, 2020, so even if Memphis got decided tomorrow, we'd be midseason on their timeline.
A waiver is no issue. This is a free transfer offseason where no one has to sit. Our NCAA situation plays no role there.
Re: Sean Miller
That doesn't make me feel better because I don't think it's fair to fire him right now, and I sure as hell don't trust him to hire a good replacement.ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:32 pmI wouldn't take his comments today seriously. He wants to fire Miller and he either will or he defers to the boosters and resigns him. I don't know which way this will go.
If I had to make a guess today I'd say Sean is gone, but it won't be hashed out until towards the end of the tourney.
Hopefully the boosters can talk him out of it. Geez this guy pisses me off so much. How can a university president be this incompetent?
“The reality is that the hardest games to win are over teams on their home court. Teams that don’t play those games can spin it however they want, but what they’re saying is, ‘We don’t want to lose in our non conference season.’" - Sean Miller
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Re: Sean Miller
I have a list of rules that seem to reflect life pretty well. Of them:Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:45 pmChances are minimal this is decided before next year.Merkin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:31 pmI wonder how many will leave if the Cats get an extended post season ban? I imagine the NCAA will give any player a waiver who wants to leave. If there is a 5 year post season ban, no matter how unlikely, I imagine they will all bail. Even 2 years is an incredible amount of time for a college basketball player.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay
No chance at ever playing the in second biggest US sporting event after the Super Bowl? If that was my son playing, I would recommend they go elsewhere. Especially with Miller's fondness for scheduling cupcakes such as CSU and directional schools, outside of one or two marquee games like Gonzaga.
1. Everything takes longer than it should unless it's really, really bad, and then it happens much too fast.
2. I don't get what I want the way I want it.
So, I agree with both of you.
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
~ Wilhoit's Law
~ Wilhoit's Law
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Re: Sean Miller
It must suck for current and recent students who completely missed out on AZ being elite and in the mix of teams capable of winning it all. Can't believe how spoiled I was in the late 90s/early 00s. Woah.
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Re: Sean Miller
If he left, I’d guess he catch on with a pro team.
Re: Sean Miller
If you know a coaching change needs to happen eventually, it needs to happen now. Why wait? What's the benefit of keeping Miller employed if we're only going to let him go before next season?
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Re: Sean Miller
He is assuming Sean doesnt leave first. What a buffoon. Maybe then Sean wont want to extend. Certainly wouldnt blame him.
2014-2015 RAP Football Champion
Re: Sean Miller
I think he is saying there are two issues. One getting the Miller deal done and the second is what results from the investigation will be. I don't think he is saying one is dependent on the other.
Last edited by TheCat on Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Sean Miller
The investigation is done. It's over. The FBI investigated. The NCAA tried to investigate (and not surprisingly, nobody on earth is gonna cooperate with them. The university investigated. That's it.
The NCAA took all the info they could, rolled it into the most biased NOA they could possibly muster and then shipped it to the UA. And the UA rightly said, "fuck you, we're going the IARP route."
And that's where we are. The IARP is gonna read the documents, ask questions and make a decision based on arguments from the NCAA and the UA. Regardless of the decision of the IARP, Robbins and Arizona should have already reached their decision. They need to stand up and take a position and not be cowards and wait for someone else to make an announcement they can hide behind.
Either say the damage is too much and we're moving on -- and pay Miller for the final year and start anew.
Or extend Miller 2-3 years and take whatever, if any, punishment the IARP hands down and go public with your decision and the reasons for your decision.
I hate gutless cowards!
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Re: Sean Miller
No half measures.zonagrad wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:40 pmThe investigation is done. It's over. The FBI investigated. The NCAA tried to investigate (and not surprisingly, nobody on earth is gonna cooperate with them. The university investigated. That's it.
The NCAA took all the info they could, rolled it into the most biased NOA they could possibly muster and then shipped it to the UA. And the UA rightly said, "fuck you, we're going the IARP route."
And that's where we are. The IARP is gonna read the documents, ask questions and make a decision based on arguments from the NCAA and the UA. Regardless of the decision of the IARP, Robbins and Arizona should have already reached their decision. They need to stand up and take a position and not be cowards and wait for someone else to make an announcement they can hide behind.
Either say the damage is too much and we're moving on -- and pay Miller for the final year and start anew.
Or extend Miller 2-3 years and take whatever, if any, punishment the IARP hands down and go public with your decision and the reasons for your decision.
I hate gutless cowards!
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
~ Wilhoit's Law
~ Wilhoit's Law
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Re: Sean Miller
This is genius, how old are you, that type of wisdom takes decades to figure out.dovecanyoncat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:54 pmI have a list of rules that seem to reflect life pretty well. Of them:Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:45 pmChances are minimal this is decided before next year.Merkin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:31 pmI wonder how many will leave if the Cats get an extended post season ban? I imagine the NCAA will give any player a waiver who wants to leave. If there is a 5 year post season ban, no matter how unlikely, I imagine they will all bail. Even 2 years is an incredible amount of time for a college basketball player.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay
No chance at ever playing the in second biggest US sporting event after the Super Bowl? If that was my son playing, I would recommend they go elsewhere. Especially with Miller's fondness for scheduling cupcakes such as CSU and directional schools, outside of one or two marquee games like Gonzaga.
1. Everything takes longer than it should unless it's really, really bad, and then it happens much too fast.
2. I don't get what I want the way I want it.
So, I agree with both of you.
Arizona State might have the most surprisingly anemic history in men's basketball of any program that you might think is better than it is.
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Re: Sean Miller
Because our ability to get a new coach is impaired with the NCAA process hanging over our head. It's hard to grab a talented coach to step into a situation where immediate sanctions could exist.
Miller should be extended for 2-3 years. It's also dumb to let him coach with no extension. You're throwing away a recruiting class. Whether or not you intend to keep him, that hurts.
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Re: Sean Miller
On the off-chance you're not being facetious:U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:55 amThis is genius, how old are you, that type of wisdom takes decades to figure out.dovecanyoncat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:54 pm
I have a list of rules that seem to reflect life pretty well. Of them:
1. Everything takes longer than it should unless it's really, really bad, and then it happens much too fast.
2. I don't get what I want the way I want it.
So, I agree with both of you.
"I am too young to die
Too old for a lullaby
Too tired for life on the ledge"
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
~ Wilhoit's Law
~ Wilhoit's Law
Re: Sean Miller
This is my current sweet spot.dovecanyoncat wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:38 amOn the off-chance you're not being facetious:U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:55 amThis is genius, how old are you, that type of wisdom takes decades to figure out.dovecanyoncat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:54 pm
I have a list of rules that seem to reflect life pretty well. Of them:
1. Everything takes longer than it should unless it's really, really bad, and then it happens much too fast.
2. I don't get what I want the way I want it.
So, I agree with both of you.
"I am too young to die
Too old for a lullaby
Too tired for life on the ledge"
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Re: Sean Miller
I never understand this criticism of Miller. In the past handful of years, here are guys that have massively overperformed their rank.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:47 pm I really like our returning core next year (assuming everyone comes back) which is the only reason I want Miller to stay, which admittedly is very short sighted. I think that Sean has serious limitations when it comes to player development and making the most of the roster he has. I am honestly fine with keeping him or replacing him and just hope that our solid foundation and tradition can help be there to lift up our replacement. I am of the minority that is not deeply entrenched one way or the other which works for a fan, but looks pretty shitty from an administration.
TJ, not on any recruiting map, now a NBA vet.
Kadeem, not highly recruited, several years in the NBA.
Lauri, ranked #36 by 247, OAD lottery pick.
Zeke, ranked #40 by 247, OAD first rounder.
Mathurin, ranked #128 by 247, in draft conversation after one year.
Tubelis, not ranked by 247, in draft conversations after one year.
That's a pretty consistent record of non 5 star recruits overperforming their rankings. The issue Miller has is almost that he develops too well, meaning a lot of guys like Zeke are gone sooner than we'd anticipate.
Our 5 stars have had solid production, too. Even guys like PJC and Ristic, you could see development year to year.
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Re: Sean Miller
I am referring to players getting better year over year, I would argue most those you listed were not so much a development thing as much as a underrated thing. Lauri got here and day 1 it was clear he was way better then his ranking, I could see an argument that Ben showed development for half the year but then he regressed like so many Miller players seem to do. PJC's higest efficeniency rating was his first year, Other than Nick Johnson I can not think of one occasion (over the last 10 years) when I saw a player come back and I said, "Wow he really improved over the summer". Maybe I was spoiled during the Lute days when every year you saw a big jump (just towards the end of his run alone you have Jordan Hill, Ivan, Hot Sauce, Iggy, Salim, Marcus Willaims, Channing, etc.). I am still hopefully we will see more jumps like that and less Brandon Randolph and Rawle Alkins but the short term results are part of the reason we are even discussing a potential change in coaching.
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Re: Sean Miller
If you improve in year 1, you don't see a second year to make a jump. In a heavy one and done era, I think it's engineering a result to discount the guys who improve so fast they are ready to jump.gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:01 pm I am referring to players getting better year over year, I would argue most those you listed were not so much a development thing as much as a underrated thing. Lauri got here and day 1 it was clear he was way better then his ranking, I could see an argument that Ben showed development for half the year but then he regressed like so many Miller players seem to do. PJC's higest efficeniency rating was his first year, Other than Nick Johnson I can not think of one occasion (over the last 10 years) when I saw a player come back and I said, "Wow he really improved over the summer". Maybe I was spoiled during the Lute days when every year you saw a big jump (just towards the end of his run alone you have Jordan Hill, Ivan, Hot Sauce, Iggy, Salim, Marcus Willaims, Channing, etc.). I am still hopefully we will see more jumps like that and less Brandon Randolph and Rawle Alkins but the short term results are part of the reason we are even discussing a potential change in coaching.
I would also disagree you always saw big jumps under Lute. Point me to the big jumps Isiah Fox, Mohammed Tangara, Chris Rodgers and Justin Wessel had.
I also think you're cherry picking on guys like PJC. His freshman efficiency #'s you cite to were in 9 mpg of spot and garbage time duty vs 32 mpg as a starter when he was a senior. Even with that, his 3 point % significantly increased.
Rawle was hobbled by the broken foot as a soph and still upped his ppg from 11 to 13.
I think you're disregarding guys who overperform and that this is a different world. Guys who would make a soph jump like Justin Simon now transfer much faster. Guys who break out as freshmen leave. Guys like Arenas and Jefferson w oi uld be OAD's today.