Conference Realignment

[PHXCATS]

It is word games

Meetings vs discussions

All of this is a ploy to make the existing PAC-12 schools more desirable and drive up the pricing

[DrWildcat]

Interesting.........multiple credible PAC12 sources are saying the Big12 meeting with the 4 corner schools is blatantly false. Someone is full of crap....wonder who?

Everyone is full of crap until the deal is done.

[AzCatFan2]

The differences in spring sports revenue are far more "minimal" than the football differences. Again, football accounts for around 80% of total revenue and thats why AZ is ranked below most of the teams mentioned........and thats not my opinion. Its the opinion of the media outlets (Fox/ESPN) that are driving the re-alignment.

Sure. Compare Arizona with any of the top 35 revenue generating programs in football and we can't offer anything in the spring to compare. But the next 35 football programs? In terms of revenue and eyeballs, not much of a difference. So if you're ESPN, and all the top 35 football programs are taken up in long-term contracts, who has more value to you? The 45th best football team, with spring sports to match? Or the 55th best football program, but top 10 in all springs sports? The answer is the latter.

You are not spending significant time and money promoting the 45th best football team over the 55th. Both teams are empty calories, and the meat and potatoes are the top programs. The only way the 45th or 55th best team gets prime tv in the fall is if they are playing one of the big guys. Football may be 80%, but programs 45 and 55 don't have enough the pie to significantly move the needle.

But a school that is top 10 in spring sports to fill out a conference has some value to the TV networks. This is a school the network can ignore in the fall, but promote the hell out of in the spring. Versus say ASu. Think they will ever get top billing in football? Or in the spring?

ESPN/Fox/Networks don't agree with you.

Actually, they do. Which cost more for a 30 second commercial. A 11:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPNU in the Fall? Or a 4:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPN in the Spring?

The first round of expansions have involved the top tiers in football. They are most valuable. The football also-rans will be lumped into the next group. And Arizona has a lot to offer, because our percentage we can garner from the 20% for spring sports is more valuable than the miniscule percentages of the 80% schools like Arizona and Colorado have when it comes to football.

What is the average viewership of U of A softball in the regular season on espn? How many millions of people?

I don't know. But again, what is more valuable TV real estate? 11:00 PM Eastern on a Saturday night on ESPNU in October? Or midday on EPSN, May on a Saturday? Because that's the difference we're talking about.

Schools like Arizona and Colorado have such a small percentage of the 80% that it's negligible. We're the schools that play the late games on the U or the Conference Network unless we are playing a top team that gets top billing. And there are so many TV networks, and so many timeslots. For football, we're just filler content. But so are Utah, ASu, and Colorado. For football, really think ESPN distinguishes between these schools? We know they don't. How many times have they confused us with ASu?

But it's not like all these schools are the same. For football, yes, but there is 20% of the pie that has value. If it didn't, ESPN wouldn't broadcast college basketball and the baseball/softball tournaments. And it's in the spring sports Arizona has more value than some of the schools we may be competing with if it comes down to limited slots.

Again, put us against a team that has top football revenue, and it's no contest, nor does it matter what that school does in the spring. Football is king. And this is why Arizona isn't mentioned in the first wave of expansion, but schools like Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA were. But among the football also-rans, we have a lot more to offer than many others, thanks to the strength of our spring sports.

[MountainCat]

I wonder if it would be better if the Pac-12 asked schools from the Big-12 to join? This way they don't have to add the far-away schools like Central Florida, West Virginia and Cincinnati. It might also keep the Rose Bowl.

Agreed - Try to keep the remaining Pac 10 teams in tack, then bring in Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, BYU, Houston. That takes it to 18. If these super conferences go to 20, then add a couple more out of Cincinnati, West Virginia, Central Florida, or maybe even San Diego State, Nebraska. Don't forget the ACC to rob from also as I think they may fall apart in time too.

If something doesn't happen by the end this week in regards to WU and OU moving to the Big 10 or the 4 Pac 12 teams to the Big 12, then the Pac ## could survive with any luck. If it does, then USC and UCLA may regret their move as they could become a future opponent.

...then again who knows what may happen. May just have to wait our fate. I hope Robbins doesn't screw this up.

[Merkin]

On the Ocho!

[RondaeShimmy]

This guy was right about USC and UCLA to the big ten a long time ago and has some interesting tweets lately

[pc in NM]

I wonder if it would be better if the Pac-12 asked schools from the Big-12 to join? This way they don't have to add the far-away schools like Central Florida, West Virginia and Cincinnati. It might also keep the Rose Bowl.

Agreed - Try to keep the remaining Pac 10 teams in tack, then bring in Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, BYU, Houston. That takes it to 18. If these super conferences go to 20, then add a couple more out of Cincinnati, West Virginia, Central Florida, or maybe even San Diego State, Nebraska. Don't forget the ACC to rob from also as I think they may fall apart in time too.

If something doesn't happen by the end this week in regards to WU and OU moving to the Big 10 or the 4 Pac 12 teams to the Big 12, then the Pac ## could survive with any luck. If it does, then USC and UCLA may regret their move as they could become a future opponent.

...then again who knows what may happen. May just have to wait our fate. I hope Robbins doesn't screw this up.

Some really tough decisions in the near future...

... where to arrange those pesky lounge chairs on the deck of the Titanic!!

[PHXCATS]

Sure. Compare Arizona with any of the top 35 revenue generating programs in football and we can't offer anything in the spring to compare. But the next 35 football programs? In terms of revenue and eyeballs, not much of a difference. So if you're ESPN, and all the top 35 football programs are taken up in long-term contracts, who has more value to you? The 45th best football team, with spring sports to match? Or the 55th best football program, but top 10 in all springs sports? The answer is the latter.

You are not spending significant time and money promoting the 45th best football team over the 55th. Both teams are empty calories, and the meat and potatoes are the top programs. The only way the 45th or 55th best team gets prime tv in the fall is if they are playing one of the big guys. Football may be 80%, but programs 45 and 55 don't have enough the pie to significantly move the needle.

But a school that is top 10 in spring sports to fill out a conference has some value to the TV networks. This is a school the network can ignore in the fall, but promote the hell out of in the spring. Versus say ASu. Think they will ever get top billing in football? Or in the spring?

ESPN/Fox/Networks don't agree with you.

Actually, they do. Which cost more for a 30 second commercial. A 11:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPNU in the Fall? Or a 4:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPN in the Spring?

The first round of expansions have involved the top tiers in football. They are most valuable. The football also-rans will be lumped into the next group. And Arizona has a lot to offer, because our percentage we can garner from the 20% for spring sports is more valuable than the miniscule percentages of the 80% schools like Arizona and Colorado have when it comes to football.

What is the average viewership of U of A softball in the regular season on espn? How many millions of people?

I don't know. But again, what is more valuable TV real estate? 11:00 PM Eastern on a Saturday night on ESPNU in October? Or midday on EPSN, May on a Saturday? Because that's the difference we're talking about.

Schools like Arizona and Colorado have such a small percentage of the 80% that it's negligible. We're the schools that play the late games on the U or the Conference Network unless we are playing a top team that gets top billing. And there are so many TV networks, and so many timeslots. For football, we're just filler content. But so are Utah, ASu, and Colorado. For football, really think ESPN distinguishes between these schools? We know they don't. How many times have they confused us with ASu?

But it's not like all these schools are the same. For football, yes, but there is 20% of the pie that has value. If it didn't, ESPN wouldn't broadcast college basketball and the baseball/softball tournaments. And it's in the spring sports Arizona has more value than some of the schools we may be competing with if it comes down to limited slots.

Again, put us against a team that has top football revenue, and it's no contest, nor does it matter what that school does in the spring. Football is king. And this is why Arizona isn't mentioned in the first wave of expansion, but schools like Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA were. But among the football also-rans, we have a lot more to offer than many others, thanks to the strength of our spring sports.

Thats not how it works

Fox and espn already have all that baked into everything when they negotiate with the conferences

[CalStateTempe]

Interesting.........multiple credible PAC12 sources are saying the Big12 meeting with the 4 corner schools is blatantly false. Someone is full of crap....wonder who?

Pac12 shills

There is no honor among Thieves

[azgreg]

[AzCatFan2]

ESPN/Fox/Networks don't agree with you.

Actually, they do. Which cost more for a 30 second commercial. A 11:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPNU in the Fall? Or a 4:00 PM Eastern spot on ESPN in the Spring?

The first round of expansions have involved the top tiers in football. They are most valuable. The football also-rans will be lumped into the next group. And Arizona has a lot to offer, because our percentage we can garner from the 20% for spring sports is more valuable than the miniscule percentages of the 80% schools like Arizona and Colorado have when it comes to football.

What is the average viewership of U of A softball in the regular season on espn? How many millions of people?

I don't know. But again, what is more valuable TV real estate? 11:00 PM Eastern on a Saturday night on ESPNU in October? Or midday on EPSN, May on a Saturday? Because that's the difference we're talking about.

Schools like Arizona and Colorado have such a small percentage of the 80% that it's negligible. We're the schools that play the late games on the U or the Conference Network unless we are playing a top team that gets top billing. And there are so many TV networks, and so many timeslots. For football, we're just filler content. But so are Utah, ASu, and Colorado. For football, really think ESPN distinguishes between these schools? We know they don't. How many times have they confused us with ASu?

But it's not like all these schools are the same. For football, yes, but there is 20% of the pie that has value. If it didn't, ESPN wouldn't broadcast college basketball and the baseball/softball tournaments. And it's in the spring sports Arizona has more value than some of the schools we may be competing with if it comes down to limited slots.

Again, put us against a team that has top football revenue, and it's no contest, nor does it matter what that school does in the spring. Football is king. And this is why Arizona isn't mentioned in the first wave of expansion, but schools like Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA were. But among the football also-rans, we have a lot more to offer than many others, thanks to the strength of our spring sports.

Thats not how it works

Fox and espn already have all that baked into everything when they negotiate with the conferences

Fox and ESPN have baked in commercial rates for 30 second spots when they negotiate with the conferences? I don't think that's how it works, and selling air time is one of the ways these networks make money. The only way for Fox OTA (over-the-air), whereas cable companies also get subscription fees, known as carriage fees. I guess both can do paid informercials too, but they aren't huge revenue generators. And generally, the market sets the price for advertising dollars. A single DMA, 30-second spot on ESPN probably runs maybe $250 to $300. On a OTA network, same time spot is $2,000 to $3,000. Nationally, you are getting into the big bucks. Super Bowl last year, 30 seconds cost $5.6 million.

It's the carriage fees and advertising dollars that allow these networks to pay the schools the millions of dollars per school, especially with carriage fees becoming a smaller slice of the pie due to streaming services. And generally, ad spots prices are set by supply and demand. How many people are watching is the demand, and the number of companies willing to pay for a spot is the supply. Wouldn't surprise me if the 11:00 PM Eastern ESPNU ads are a bunch of overruns, which are free ads a company gets, because they paid for a prime time slot, the TV network couldn't fill the non-prime spot, so they just run a the same commercial again. This is why you often see the same commercials on late night television. It's not that the advertisers bought these time slots. The network didn't sell them, so they are overrunning the same ads.

So I ask again. Which ad time slot has more value to EPSN. The 11:00 pm Eastern fall slot? Or the Saturday spring 4:00 pm Eastern spring slot. Now, if we're comparing 4:00 pm Eastern in Oct versus 4:00 pm Eastern in Feb, Oct, and it's not even close. But Arizona football isn't competing with the schools who are going to be featured on that 4:00 pm Eastern slot week in and week out. Neither are the other three PAC schools in the Mountain time zone.

[PHXCATS]

Yes that is all baked it

[dmjcat]

[CalStateTempe]

Canzano sucks. Yesterday he was pleading for knight hat to step in where as now it’s revealed that knight wants Oregon to the big 10.

Writing is on the wall, arizona should go to the big12 while it can.

[PHXCATS]

Apple pays MLB $85 Million a year for one or two MLB games a week on Friday nights

$55 Million is the broadcast rights while $30 Million is advertising throughout the ballparks and other sources

Could Amazon or Apple or Netflix be the way to go? Figure they would pay a hell of a lot more for all sports especially 5-7 football games a week and men's basketball

[azcat49]

I don’t know CST. That sounds pretty interesting. Hopefully it would lock in teams for the remainder of this decade and beyond and we could leverage some nice eastern markets and Vegas for championships

[PHXCATS]

ACC has an absolutely awful TV agreement. Just barely over half of what the PAC-12 is expected to get without USC and UCLA

Unless Disney is willing to start a completely new deal that would be an awful move

[dirtbags]

https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/sto ... ms-big-ten

[azcat49]

Well it’s sounding like we have 30 days to sort things out and plot a course

I used to be a fan of USC and UCLA but now I hope they go 0-12 and live a miserable existence in all aspects of there move

[CalStateTempe]

https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/sto ... ms-big-ten

Gross.

Moving to the big 10 isn’t going to fill Pauley

[CalStateTempe]

Canzano just sounds dumb.

[1stNGrant Frys]

Neither. It's Big 10, SEC, possibly ACC or bust. These other conferences will all be 2nd tier at some point and the recruiting disadvantages of being 2nd tier will ruin our athletic programs. Not to mention a much much smaller opportunity to ever have a shot at National Championships. That is why this whole thing is a frigging joke. Barely even worth caring about college athletics anymore unless your school is economic powerhouse. Oh and Fuck Larry Scott for being a lazy parasite with no foresight whatsoever.

Why would any of those conferences want UA?

Maybe because we are a growing state and the UofA is a large University. We have great Basketball, Baseball, and Softball Programs. Could have a very competitive Football program under the right circumstances(being in one of big boy conferences would vault us up a notch or 2). Why does the Big 10 have Rutgers or Maryland? Minnesota? Northwestern? The UofA is better than all of them as far as athletics go.

Rutgers and Maryland are in for the NYC and DC markets respectively. And yes despite their lack of success they have strong fanbases. Northwestern (ie Chicago) and far higher academics than UA. MN is a founding member with roughly equal academics to U of A.

The Big 10 now has the largest markets for TV viewing across the country, and AZ is really an afterthought compared to such. The population of AZ and the population distribution of West is small relatively.

You are pretty much correct on everything you said other than Rutgers. Not sure Rutgers brings the NYC market into the equation much? Other than being located there. Who the hell is watching Rutgers? Nobody. They totaled 45 million in revenue last year. That would make them last in the Pac by a wiiide margin. They have been accruing massive debts the last several years in order to raise their mid major like program.

my late reply, but nonetheless I've known and seen Rutgers fans East and I wonder if they are thinking its a growth area, since its the only school till UCONN that has major college football.

They could also be playing to the high number of B1G Alumni in the NYC area that will tune into for their team to smash Rutgers. Sort of like LA football.

[AZCatGirl]

If this is what was meant earlier by “and George is kicking ass.” then

Another bs alliance isn't going to save the Pac.

[UAEebs86]

[azgreg]

[CatsbyAZ]

When statements are made like - "Four PAC-12 schools are reportedly meeting with Big 12 Officials about joining the conference. They include Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah" - who exactly would the U of Arizona be sending on the university's behalf to these meetings with the Big 12? A legal counsel to the AD?

[ASUHATER!]

I can see Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado going to the big 12 and Oregon and UW/Stanford to the big 10. And UW/Stanford Cal, OSU and WSU getting left out and having to join some super sized mountain west

I can also see UW/UO not getting a B1G invite and instead going to the B12..........which then has two spots left to pick from among Utah/asu/ua/Col..........with the UA being the odd man out and nowhere to go but back to a glorified WAC/MWC.

I would rather see both UW/UO get picked up by the B1G. What we have here is a consolidation of CFB teams........with fewer power schools left over once this game of musical chairs ends. The UA needs a chair to sit down in. We are a long way from being in a good position.

I really don't understand this sentiment. Arizona is absolutely not the odd man out in that situation. We're much more desirable than Utah or Colorado.

[azgreg]

[PHXCATS]

When statements are made like - "Four PAC-12 schools are reportedly meeting with Big 12 Officials about joining the conference. They include Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah" - who exactly would the U of Arizona be sending on the university's behalf to these meetings with the Big 12? A legal counsel to the AD?

No one ever said meeting. Discussions was the phrase used. Would be Heeke and Robbins with input from Heeke's staff and coaches

[azgreg]

[AzCatFan2]

Nor should there be. Adding low value schools does nothing for anyone in the PAC. If we expand, we need to start with current BIG 12 teams like OK State, TCU, TTech, and Baylor. Those schools have value.

If Oregon and Washington agree with the mountain 4 PAC schools to join the BIG 12, there is value there too. But I think Oregon has their sites on something better. That could be the BIG 10, or even the SEC.

The SEC understands the prize west coast schools are gone. But there are still western eyeballs that could provide value. The SEC could take UW and Oregon only, but they don't have the same value as the LA schools. And are farther away. The SEC could be thinking adding a number of PAC schools, and create a conference that is coast to coast.

Last, if you think Arizona has less value than say Colorado, imagine what interest an Arizona vs Kansas football game would draw. Think a Colorado vs Kansas football game ranks any higher on ESPN's radar? How about Utah or ASu vs. Kansas football? All late game, ESPNU or Conference Network fodder. But Arizona vs. Kansas basketball? Marquee match up with a ton of hype.

Football is king. But the networks don't care about the football peons. They are all the same in the fall. Opponents for the big guys to play, or filler games during times nobody is watching. But if a filler football school can grab a good chunk of the 20% non-football revenue, that school is more valuable than its filler sister schools.

[dmjcat]

[EastCoastCat]

Is it possible to just shut down this thread for the sake of preventing mental illness?

[azgreg]

Sounds like an alliance. Pass.

[dmjcat]

Is it possible to just shut down this thread for the sake of preventing mental illness?

I'll have to consult my therapist on that.

[GlobalCat]

Gross. Some of ya'll are excited to be paired up with a bunch of 5s and 6s.

If I'm any of the remaining 10 ADs, I'm throwing budget at the Stanford educated lawyers and law firms to bring the legal complaint to the UC Regents + Gavin Newsom to lobby/sue to block UCLA's departure while reminding anyone who will listen that Fox Sports is still part of Rupert Murdoch's empire. A bit of a wildcard play, but school administrations don't like to be affiliated with that kind of tainted business - particularly UC leadership. Getting some good ol' fashion public shaming is worth it.

In parallel, I'd be rallying the Mountain West, WCC, and any school in between to keep USC's closest scheduled games in the Big10 as punishment. Their recent arrogance is obscene, particularly with Lincoln Riley's arrival and the cash being thrown around behind the scenes... some of which is hiding the fact they recently had billion dollar settlements that forced divestments and program cuts.

[GlobalCat]

Ugh, when I looked at it again, there are some 4s mixed in too.

[OSUCat]

The alliance talk is a delay strategy to slow big-12 expansion. If ACC voluntarily leave their media deal then Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and probably others would jump ship.

I still don’t buy that SEC will just give the west coast to the Big-10 and Big-12. Too much viewership / streaming numbers to give up.

[KillerKlown]

Gross. Some of ya'll are excited to be paired up with a bunch of 5s and 6s.

Same can be said for the PAC and our gold-digging ass dimes just left us for the rich guy with all the cash. At this point a lot of us are solely focused on the potential basketball matchups. Football is going to shittier depths with the big corps (FOX,etc) finally getting to controll what and who goes where (USC,UCLA) and the average football viewer viewing something non football related. I feel I speak for a lot of us when I say, Fresno St in the Pac fuck that give me Kansas, Baylor and Houston at home.

[RondaeShimmy]

Since Dennis Dobbs sucks,

[CalStateTempe]

Gross. Some of ya'll are excited to be paired up with a bunch of 5s and 6s.

Same can be said for the PAC and our gold-digging ass dimes just left us for the rich guy with all the cash. At this point a lot of us are solely focused on the potential basketball matchups. Football is going to shittier depths with the big corps (FOX,etc) finally getting to controll what and who goes where (USC,UCLA) and the average football viewer viewing something non football related. I feel I speak for a lot of us when I say, Fresno St in the Pac fuck that give me Kansas, Baylor and Houston at home.

That’s how I feel, college fb will only be about 5/6 teams now and I rely only watch my team, so I can more about how this affects arizonas cash cow, basketball, at this point.

[ChooChooCat]

Gross. Some of ya'll are excited to be paired up with a bunch of 5s and 6s.

If I'm any of the remaining 10 ADs, I'm throwing budget at the Stanford educated lawyers and law firms to bring the legal complaint to the UC Regents + Gavin Newsom to lobby/sue to block UCLA's departure while reminding anyone who will listen that Fox Sports is still part of Rupert Murdoch's empire. A bit of a wildcard play, but school administrations don't like to be affiliated with that kind of tainted business - particularly UC leadership. Getting some good ol' fashion public shaming is worth it.

In parallel, I'd be rallying the Mountain West, WCC, and any school in between to keep USC's closest scheduled games in the Big10 as punishment. Their recent arrogance is obscene, particularly with Lincoln Riley's arrival and the cash being thrown around behind the scenes... some of which is hiding the fact they recently had billion dollar settlements that forced divestments and program cuts.

Lol if those are 5s and 6s, what does that make the remaining Pac-10 schools? 3s and 4s? This conference has been atrocious from a competitive standpoint for too long and when given the opportunity to improve numerous times through expansion they always took the conservative route and now look where it's brought us. Fuck the Pac-12.

[UAEebs86]

Amen Choo.


There should be a tribunal for what the university presidents and Larry Scott did to athletics in this now dead conference. And how many millions were wasted in the process.

[GlobalCat]

Lol if those are 5s and 6s, what does that make the remaining Pac-10 schools? 3s and 4s? This conference has been atrocious from a competitive standpoint for too long and when given the opportunity to improve numerous times through expansion they always took the conservative route and now look where it's brought us. Fuck the Pac-12.

I believe the correct term is "slump buster"

[RondaeShimmy]

Since Dennis Dobbs sucks,

Lol

[SabinoDrifter]

Amen Choo.


There should be a tribunal for what the university presidents and Larry Scott did to athletics in this now dead conference. And how many millions were wasted in the process.

Exactly. This has been an issue for YEARS and feigning ignorance is not an effective strategy.

[ChooChooCat]

Amen Choo.


There should be a tribunal for what the university presidents and Larry Scott did to athletics in this now dead conference. And how many millions were wasted in the process.

Exactly. This has been an issue for YEARS and feigning ignorance is not an effective strategy.

They're just going to hitch their wagon to George and his moronic ACC "partnership" and they're going to eat it up and jerk each other off as they scream about academics and then just be right back in this same spot 10 years later as the good ACC schools leave for the B1G and SEC.

[Merkin]

Crowe has to be on the top of the list for incompetent presidents destroying the PAC. He still is too.

Meanwhile

[RondaeShimmy]

Crowe has to be on the top of the list for incompetent presidents destroying the PAC. He still is too.

Meanwhile

We have to get out now to the big 12 and force they're hands, else we'll be fucked even more in a couple years from now when they try to bolt again

[Merkin]

We have to get out now to the big 12 and force they're hands, else we'll be fucked even more in a couple years from now when they try to bolt again

That has to be on the top of Robbin's and Heeke's mind. UA will end up in some reformed WAC with WSU/ntOSU if UO/UW go to the Big 12 with Utah/Colorado.

Doesn't help that ASU wants to stay in the PAC though.