Conference Realignment

[CardiacCats97]

The idea that there’s some programming exec in Bristol rubbing his hands together with glee while he reads my posts that express my disgust with the conference is so goddamn hilarious.

“Our plan is working PERFECTLY!!!” the overpaid VP sneered while twisting the ends of his evil mustache with malicious intent.

[azcat49]

Our comments or thoughts mean diddly squat in this negotiation. Those TV negotiators are like sharks and they smell blood in the water

[AzCatFan2]

Just putting this out there. At this points, it's nothing more than talk between the ACC and the PAC. Nothing may ever come out of it. But if something could be worked out, a conference with Clemson, FSU, Miami, Utah, Washington, and Oregon for football, and Arizona, Virginia, UNC, and Duke for basketball would be very close in quality with the B1G and SEC. A not-so-distant third, in my opinion. Question is, does the money exist to make this happen?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/16 ... _&ref_url=[/tweet]

[azgreg]

Just putting this out there. At this points, it's nothing more than talk between the ACC and the PAC. Nothing may ever come out of it. But if something could be worked out, a conference with Clemson, FSU, Miami, Utah, Washington, and Oregon for football, and Arizona, Virginia, UNC, and Duke for basketball would be very close in quality with the B1G and SEC. A not-so-distant third, in my opinion. Question is, does the money exist to make this happen?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/16 ... _&ref_url=[/tweet]

When you post the link: https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/16 ... 73760?s=20 remove everything from the ? on.

https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/16 ... 5968373760

[PHXCATS]

More layoffs at espn coming. Sucks how much power they have in college sports

[GlobalCat]

More layoffs at espn coming. Sucks how much power they have in college sports

(Please be Stephen A Smith, please be Stephen A…)

[MountainCat]

[quote=PHXCATS post_id=584507 time=<a href="tel:1681929685">1681929685</a> user_id=116]
More layoffs at espn coming. Sucks how much power they have in college sports

(Please be Stephen A Smith, please be Stephen A…)
[/quote]

More layoffs at espn coming. Sucks how much power they have in college sports

(Please be Stephen A Smith, please be Stephen A…)

Dick Vitale please!

[Merkin]

It's the end of April. When was George's deadline?

[PHXCATS]

[Merkin]

This also reads like ESPN might be involved and delaying signing due to the optics of layoffs.

So maybe summer.

[Irish27]

https://kslsports.com/501140/pac-12-big ... ock-huard/
Amidst all of those moves, the Pac-12 has remained silent as they continue to work on securing its future with a media rights package.

“On the flip side, the night before with the Pac-12, I’m not going to say survivalist, but it was not a lot of vision cast,” Huard said. “And how could it be with so much unknown in a media deal that, as one AD told me, ‘It’s close.’ But close is good for horseshoes and that’s not good in this business because we’ve got to get this deal done.”

Like the Big 12, the Pac-12 lost two bell cow brands when USC and UCLA announced they were going to the Big Ten. Since that day on June 30 last year, the Pac-12 has been working to secure its future. Huard, who is part of the Pac-12’s Football Alumni Council, shared his thoughts on the vision he heard from the league’s commissioner.

“Well, it was hard for me to listen to George Kliavkoff. I’ve been around him probably half a dozen times, and I sit on their alumni council. I’ve actually really appreciated much of his tone and tenor. I thought last year at Media Days he was bold, borderline gruff. … Showed his disappointment in USC and UCLA leaving, and all of that. I thought he handled it really well. This is the first time Monday night, where I’m like, ‘I don’t like the sound of that.’ I don’t need to hear about the water polo team and that you guys went 19-2 out of conference.”

[Merkin]

Premium, too bad no more UDub posters around.

[AZCatGirl]

Scheer doesn't believe this for what that's worth.

[Merkin]

Wasn't George K on the line to get something done by mid-April?

I bet the 4 Corner school ADs are all on the horn to the B12.

[AZCatGirl]

As long as this story ends with us to the Big 12 I'm happy. I don't care how stupid the journey has been.

[RichardCranium]

Now that the red parts of Washington and Oregon have split off and joined with 'Greater Idaho', it leaves UW and UO to jump any time they want without having to worry about Greater Idaho State (Pullman) or Greater Idaho State (Corvalis)

[TheCatInTheHat]

If Washington and Oregon are running a back-door stealth operation to sneak off to the Big Ten, they'd be doing us a favor in doing it now, rather than stringing it out and leaving us hanging. Unlike Arizona and the UC system, both schools have boards of regents or trustees independent of their "State U" opposite numbers. Unknown if they're still basically joined at the hip, but certainly the state legislatures that provide significant funding expect to have some say in big decisions. And the issue, like Cal with UCLA, is how to take care of the less self-sufficient (WSU & OSU) if the big brothers bail out and P5 conference money is no longer available to them. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, some talk about Fresno's facilities upgrades and Colorado State. Obviously, just as with San Diego State, it's a big come-down "replacing" the LA powers with any MWC mid-majors. But, especially with 3 members leaving, the remaining members of the AAC are no better than the MWC. Which brings me to SMU. There seems to be some thought that adding SMU to the Pac would cause a big ratings bump, as well as enable some huge entree to Texas recruiting that's not already there. But, I don't see it. The eyes of Texas are on UT, A&M, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, and maybe Houston in some order. I seriously doubt small potatoes SMU or Rice draw much more than their alumni bases, and playing distant and unrelatable west coast schools in a diminished Pac wouldn't figure to change that. So you add a lot of travel for non-existent and unrealized benefits. Sounds very Pac-like. And I don't care if Fresno builds the Taj Mahal, it's still Fresno and nobody wants to go there. I'm on record for getting off the carousel and going Big XII, but in the event we're stuck in the Pac due to Crow and his ilk, I'd add CSU as CU's designated rival and travel partner and pair SDSU with Utah.

[Merkin]

Fresno State for some odd reason seems a better get than SDSU. Even Boise State has better attendance. UA is heading to the WAC again if they don't move quickly.

Any city that would let the Chargers go is not sports oriented. But being a frequent visitor to SD, have to agree with my own assessment. Just full of young beautiful people that don't give a shit about sports.

[AzCatFan2]

Fresno St average attendance last year was about 33,000. SDSU, about 28,500. Not much of a difference. And adding a school to a conference is much more than football attendance.

Other sports count too. SDSU just made a Final Four run. It's also about area. San Diego produces a ton of D1 prep talent. The Central Valley? Not so much.

It's also doubtful the BIG12 ads more G5 schools. They just added 4, which represents 25% of the conference now. Adding more means more dilution. G5 schools also won't trigger the BIG12 elevator clause in their contract. Adding Fresno would either mean less money per school, or Fresno would come in at less than full share.

With that said, if UW and Oregon go to the B1G, our only decent option left is the BIG12. The question is, do the B1G schools want to give the PAC a death blow? So far, that answer has been no. But a new B1G Commissioner might change things.

[azgreg]

It has nothing to do with attendance, it has to do with media markets.

[Merkin]

I understand that, but would suggest low attendance in a brand new stadium where the Chargers used to play in a such a huge metropolitan area might correlate how little interest there is in SDSU football there. Media Market values only count if someone actually watches the game.

And like I said earlier, SDSU is full of young beautiful people that want to hang out outdoors in the worlds best climate.

UConn-San Diego State least-watched men’s title game: Why that should come as no surprise

Apr 3, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley celebrates after cutting down the net after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
By Richard Deitsch and Bill Shea
Apr 4, 2023
214

Monday night’s NCAA men’s basketball national championship game drew 14.69 million viewers on CBS, according to ShowBuzz Daily, making it the least-watched men’s title game on record.

[dmjcat]

Two weeks ago, inside a lavish resort in suburban Phoenix, down a long hallway and two flights of stairs, executives from two conferences inched closer to further altering the landscape of college sports.

They talked about expansion.

Often sparring publicly with one another, the two sets of league administrators separately met behind closed doors like a pair of boxers secretly preparing for the big fight against each other.

In one corner was the Pac-12, an array of broad-based universities, betrayed by their Los Angeles defectors and now at the mercy of media networks to prevent further departures.

In the other corner is the Big 12, an expanding group of universities, spanning Utah to Florida, with a brash commissioner whose aggressive nature makes him a territorial threat to the West.

[dmjcat]

[EastCoastCat]

"I don't think anybody wants to leave," Dr. Robbins told the Sacramento Bee in mid-March. "Why would you move for a couple million dollars a year more?"

What a short-sighted tool.

[TheCatInTheHat]

It's kind of like for anyone who's worked in an industry where technology changes the business significantly and there are mergers and acquisitions, and access to markets change. But within that, you can have people whose particular group has managed to stay insulated from all of it for a long time and they really want to hang on to their cushy situation just the way they've been comfortable until they can retire. And they squeeze their eyes shut and grit their teeth and hang on for all they're worth. It's a stupid and dangerous approach, and I've seen some sad stories over the years. You can't be afraid of change in life. You've got to accept and even drive it, and definitely stay out in front of it with training, jumping to a new job in a growth area, or whatever. Got to re-educate and reinvent yourself periodically as conditions require. You have to hope leadership doesn't take the whole ship down while re-arranging the deck chairs.

[Merkin]

Hey George...

[dmjcat]

Hey George...

Another example of why the UA needs to be proactive and move to the Big12 now. We might very well NOT make the cut for the 2 schools the B12 would select under this scenario.......and then if the B1G moves to add UO/UW down the road the UA is stuck in the new version of the WAC/MWC

[CardiacCats97]

The ACC 7 think they can dissolve the conference by all opting out together. Lawyers aren’t so sure.

[84Cat]

Hey George...

I hope we're one of the ones going to the Big12 or else we're going to be back in the WAC again. Watching bb recruiting a little more than usual this year and it's amazing how little we're being mentioned by top talent. I can really see that Lute was peak Arizona. Sean got our hopes up but NIL has really changed the game and being in the PAC10 is now a negative. We really need to be more proactive moving forward or we are going to be screwed

Edit: Haha, DMJ saying the same thing

[AzCatFan2]

Would a move to the BIG12 really be a step up for top ACC schools? No. And the B1G isn't likely to choose any ACC teams if they are to hold to AAU schools only, other than Notre Dame. Slim picking for the B1G, with Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Pitt, and Virginia the only AAU schools in the ACC. The SEC could scoop up the top ACC teams like Clemson, Miami, and FSU, but how much do two more teams in Florida and one more team in South Carolina really move the money needle for the SEC? Especially with the SEC tied to ESPN, who is laying off a number of people. Timing sucks for the PAC, and it would stink for the SEC to expand as well.

Have to think the ACC 7 wouldn't recruit an 8th and secede from the ACC without a pre-planned landing spot. I could see the B1G taking North Carolina and Virginia on a reduced rate, but not at a full member rate. I also don't see the SEC taking six. Would the BIG12 be willing to expand to include 4 to 6 former ACC schools? Would this many ACC schools agree to leave if the BIG12 is their only real landing spot?

[84Cat]

[PHXCATS]

Holy shit…..people are taking Swaim shoe seriously now ignoring his 25 previous wrong predictions and statements?

[CardiacCats97]

Holy shit…..people are taking Swaim shoe seriously now ignoring his 25 previous wrong predictions and statements?

Brett McMurphy is reporting the same info.

[ChooChooCat]

The ACC 7 think they can dissolve the conference by all opting out together. Lawyers aren’t so sure.

They'd need one more school to hop the fence with them. The issue is the GOR though. ESPN isn't going to take that laying down whatsoever.

[ChooChooCat]

Streaming will only work if the product on the streamer is in high demand, like NFL playoffs for instance. Pac 12 sports is not in high demand. That's always been the problem with going with a streamer for this conference. You'd put yourself on an island and it's an island that at least 75% of the country isn't going to pay for to watch your product. MLS is going through that right now with Apple.

[PHXCATS]

Holy shit…..people are taking Swaim shoe seriously now ignoring his 25 previous wrong predictions and statements?

Brett McMurphy is reporting the same info.

Please link where McMurphy is saying the Big 12 may only take 2 PAC-12 schools

[azcat49]

Can this thing just end soon. So tired on realignment talk, PAC imploding talk, college portal free agency and NIL deals.

College sports has become so much less attractive IMO.

[CardiacCats97]

Holy shit…..people are taking Swaim shoe seriously now ignoring his 25 previous wrong predictions and statements?

Brett McMurphy is reporting the same info.

Please link where McMurphy is saying the Big 12 may only take 2 PAC-12 schools

Please link where you mentioned that’s what you were specifically referring to and specifically not talking about the ACC 7.

But here’s a link to a radio interview from two days ago where he only mentions Oregon and Washington. Just for you sweetie - https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/ ... -mcmurphy/

[AzCatFan2]

Oregon and Washington were just vetted by the B1G. Really think they are going to a conference where full membership is worth $31 million a year, when even partial payment in the B1G will be temporarily worth more money? Oregon, Washington, and the top ACC schools like Clemson and FSU are pipe dreams for the BIG12. It's fine to dream big, but I stand by my statement that Washington will never become a BIG12 member. Their eyes are fully set on the B1G.

The issue for the ACC Magnificent 7 is finding an 8th, and convincing them that life outside of the ACC is guaranteed to be better. Not an easy sell. Large institutions like universities tend to be risk averse, and I doubt any ACC school will vote to leave the conference without knowing where they are going to land. The SEC seems like a likely landing spot for FSU and Clemson, and maybe even Miami. The B1G likely has interest in AAU schools like Virginia and North Carolina, but will say a Virginia Tech be happy if those 5 schools are making tens of millions more in their respective conferences, and VTech ends up in the BIG12?

As for streaming, NBC makes sense. They have been adding more sports content not only to Peacock, but USA Network as well. USA isn't ESPN, but it is a linear channel, and Premiere League Soccer has games airing on NBC, USA, and Peacock. Having the PAC12 gives NBC a lot more content, which is important. One major issue the MLS is running into with Apple is they are on a sports island. TV execs long ago figured out the value of shoulder content, and promoting shoulder content. Love show X, then tune in early for show Y, and make sure to stick around for show Z afterwards is common. Sports is no different. The only cross-over advertising MLS is getting are promos from ATT Wireless, and not from other sports shows. And if the PAC has the choice between Apple and NBC, I hope they go with NBC. Much rather have our promos running on NFL games, and the Premiere League probably has as many viewers, if not more than the MLS, even here domestically.

[TheCatInTheHat]

I'm not usually a big fan of lists or rankings of any kind, and in particular those with questionable criteria and which compare apples to oranges. So UArizona is putting this out in a press release. This version has it's own issues, and I don't particular trust much rigor beyond the first few hundred. But it's an alternative to USN&WR's "honor system" flaky mess. For purposes of comparison within the prism of sports here, you need to filter out the schools outside the US, and the various tiny and specialty schools; just P5 conference schools. Arizona's in the top 100 world-wide, and top 25 of P5 schools, so that's nice. In the context of conference realignment, it's phenomenal how highly-ranked Big Ten schools are, with 12 of their soon-to-be 16 teams ranked in the top 80 in the world. In the P5 world, I'd peg respectable in the low 200's in the world. The "new" SEC and Big XII each have 9 teams worse than that, and the "same old" ACC has 7 like that. If the four corners schools moved to the Big XII, they would instantly be the best academic schools in that conference. I realize people (the same ones who thought the Pac-12 would take over the whole Pacific Rim?) think SMU to the Pac will grab ratings from every college football fan in Texas. As stated earlier, I don't see it, and I'd like to see someone put their name and fortune on the line to guarantee those big ratings. Promises, promises. Meanwhile, Colorado St is academically ranked significantly higher than SMU, is geographically closer, and has an automatic rival in CU. To quote Bryan Cranston in Argo: "That's our least bad idea." Anyway, here are the academic rankings of the proposed "new" Pac-12. Definitely taking two steps w-a-a-y back under any scenario.

3. Stanford
12. Cal
25. Washington
66. Colorado
95. Arizona
117. Utah
186. ASU
273. OSU
302. WSU
343. SMU
421. Oregon
598. SDSU

https://cwur.org/2023.php

[84Cat]

Wow, Oregon 421? Lol!!!

[PHXCATS]

Let's be real here.

The chances of those 7 schools getting out of the Grant of Rights without espn doing a waiver is less than 1%. espn needs the content and cheap and they got the grant of rights and the contracts.

Now let's just say some how a miracle happens and those schools leave, they ain't all going to the Big 12. SEC and Big Ten want some of those schools.

Now let's say even IF somehow all 7 of those schools and Washington and Oregon all went to the Big 12 (we are at less than 1% of 1% of 1% now) then there would be more than enough schools and demand for content by the network that the remaining ACC and PAC 8 schools can do their own thing

So Arizona is fine no matter what is the point

[Merkin]

Wow, Oregon 421? Lol!!!

That's an eye opener for sure, since UO is an AAU school.

But even at 421st that's still top 2.1% according to that chart.

[wyo-cat]

They are losing or giving up their AAU membership IIRC.

Who needs to do research, academics and shit when you got Phil Knights money?

[Merkin]

[84Cat]

[EastCoastCat]

Tell us something we don't know...

[Merkin]

[AzCatFan2]

Looks like the ACC is sticking together for the time being. Probably means two things. One thing for sure, the GOR agreement is iron clad. If lawyers from 7 schools couldn't figure out a way to break it, it's not being broken.

The other thing is the B1G and SEC aren't looking to expand right now. From a financial perspective, if you're ESPN, you can get FSU, Clemson, and Miami for pennies on the dollar until 2036 at around $17 million a year. Move them to the SEC, and even at a half share, that's an increase of at minimum, $13 million per school. The SEC may want to expand, but the "Bank of ESPN" is currently laying off people, looking to change its business structure very soon, and may not be willing to spend the money.

What does this all mean for us? Not much has changed in the past few months. ACC aren't taking spots in the BIG12 any time soon, and the B1G aren't adding anyone new this cycle unless Oregon and UW suddenly become homeless. If the PAC can work out a deal close to, or worth more than the current BIG12 deal, that's probably best for us. Be a premiere NCAA property on say AppleTV, versus way down the list of games to watch on ESPN+.

[GlobalCat]

Going DTC was inevitable in the face of ongoing cord cutting