Conference Realignment

[dmjcat]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/c ... 475223007/


Colorado's move to the Big 12 jeopardizes the Pac-12's very survival
Ever since USC and UCLA blindsided the Pac-12 a year ago, announcing they were bound for the Big Ten, the league has been on shaky ground. Colorado's move to the Big 12 is a crushing blow.

Dan Wolken
USA TODAY

For the last calendar year, the Big 12 has been looking at the Pac-12 the way Hannibal Lecter looks at dinner guests, and now it’s finally time to eat. The only question is whether there will be any flesh left on the bone once Brett Yormark, the brash Big 12 commissioner, is finished dining out on the incompetence of his competitors.

There’s no way to spin this: Colorado’s conference switch to the Big 12 is a crushing blow to the Pac-12 and its commissioner, George Kliavkoff. A league that once seemed stable at the very least is now thrust into an existential crisis with no certainty that it will even survive.

In a vacuum, it should not matter that much to lose Colorado, a football program that hasn’t been good in decades and does not have a huge national following. Excitement over first-year coach Deion Sanders notwithstanding, the Buffaloes are not some huge realignment prize.

But within the context of the turf war that has been simmering between the Big 12 and Pac-12 over the last couple of years, Colorado is the tipping point. The argument is effectively over.

Roaring back from its own brush with death in 2021 when Oklahoma and Texas accepted invitations to the SEC, the Big 12 will be justified in declaring total victory. In the current cable television environment, Yormark’s strategy to secure a media deal last fall and then become a realignment predator looks more and more like a stroke of genius.

For the Pac-12, though, the symbolism of losing Colorado is probably even more crushing than the value of its athletic programs.

Ever since USC and UCLA blindsided the conference a year ago by announcing they were bound for the Big Ten, the Pac-12 has been on shaky ground.

Sure, you can have a nice football league with Oregon, Washington and Utah and have Arizona basketball carry your banner in March. But is that really a power conference? The Pac-12 hasn’t had a representative in the College Football Playoff since 2016, and the cold reality is that UCLA and USC leaving has diminished the league in a way that it had no real chance to recover from.

The Pac-12’s only shot at stability was Kliavkoff locking down a television contract that kept the remaining schools in the game financially with the Big 12 and ACC. We all know that the SEC and Big Ten are miles ahead of everyone else, but being No. 3 is important. And being No. 5 leaves you incredibly vulnerable.

For months, the Pac-12 has promised a media deal that would be competitive in terms of dollars and exposure on major television networks. But Kliavkoff simply hasn’t delivered what he promised.

The Pac-12 was supposed to announce its media deal this spring. Then that deadline got delayed to the early summer while credible reporting suggested that neither ESPN nor Fox were interested in spending big money to buy the Pac-12’s rights. By last week, the story had changed again: The Pac-12 was trying to put out the message that waiting longer had brought new bidders to the table. Things were so rosy in Kliavkoff's world, he declared that losing schools "is not a concern."

Apparently Colorado wasn’t buying it. And who can blame them?

Kliavkoff came to college sports from the rough-and-tumble world of Las Vegas entertainment, but his Pac-12 tenure thus far has been marked by naïveté and squandered credibility. In the wake of Oklahoma and Texas going to the SEC, Kliavkoff signed the Pac-12 up to be part of a so-called “Alliance” with the ACC and Big Ten that was predicated on working together and calming the realignment waters.

When I asked what kind of document had been signed to formalize the alliance and whether it included any language that would prevent one league from poaching another’s members, Kliavkoff was almost dismissive of the question.

“There’s an agreement among three gentlemen and there’s a commitment from 41 presidents and chancellors and 41 athletic directors to do what we say we’re going to do,” he said. “There’s no contract. There’s no signed document and there doesn’t need to be.”

Months later, USC and UCLA were out the door.

In truth, Kliavkoff’s job became impossible once that happened. The Pac-12 just didn’t have a lot of value without the two schools in the nation’s No. 2 media market. It would have been hard for anyone, especially with the significant belt-tightening going on at ESPN and other cable entities, to go forward and secure a lucrative media deal.

But it also underscores just how badly Kliavkoff was outmaneuvered by Yormark and the Big 12, which beat the Pac-12 to the punch in getting a deal done. Furthermore, it included a clause that allowed the value to increase by a proportional share if future Big 12 expansion included other Power Five schools.

In other words, Colorado made the move knowing exactly how much it will earn in the Big 12 — a full $31 million annual share. As of this week, it had no assurance the Pac-12 would pay that much. Given those uncertainties and the fact that the Big 12 affiliation will get Colorado and Sanders back into the game in recruiting Texas high school prospects, it’s a no-brainer that everyone in the Pac-12 should have seen coming.

As for the rest of the league, it will be fascinating in the coming days and weeks to see what unfolds. The Big 12, which has coast-to-coast ambitions under Yormark, would obviously love to add other valuable properties. The Arizona schools, Utah and perhaps even Oregon have to be antsy and considering their options at this point. How many more defections would it take to end the Pac-12 altogether?

None of this is a great development for college sports. It’s almost unthinkable that the only West Coast-based conference in the Power Five could just disappear. But a series of unusual circumstances and bad decisions has rendered it a real possibility. Colorado might just be a canary in the coal mine.

[AzCatFan2]

My God, you are as delusional as PHXCATS.

Do you understand that the the UA's media value is a fraction of what the SEC/B1G are paying out???

Are you naive enough to believe that the other members of the B1G or SEC are all going to take a pay cut to let the UA in???

Show me your crystal ball that accurately predicts the future, please?!?

We know the networks like ESPN and FOX are the ones who really pull the strings. What we don't know is how these entities will look circa 2030. It's unlikely they will look like they do today, as more people cut cords, rumors are Disney is looking to sell whole or part of ESPN, and ESPN will likely go full streaming sooner rather than later. Is it not possible that FOX/ESPN dictates to the conferences that they want to consolidate? Go all-in on one big dog conference with 24 teams, versus trying to pay multiple deals with multiple conferences?

Again, show me your crystal ball where this 100%, is not the future of college sports, please. Because I believe it is a distinct possibility. And in this case, yes, one of these conferences may pay a team like Arizona $60 million, because they would be cutting ties with conferences like the BIG12 and whatever is leftover from the ACC. Which would mean anyone who is not in the top 2 conference is on the outside looking in. It's Coke, Pepsi, and a bunch of sodas that all fight for a minute amount of shelf space that nobody really cares about, because they are infinitesimally small.

Like I said before. There's a chance getting off the PAC to go to the BIG12 is leaving the Titanic only to get a ticket on the Lusitania.

Your argument/word salad is so illogical its hard to know where to start.

1) What the future of ESPN/Disney looks like is irrelevant. The UA will still have a much lower media value than what the existing
schools in the B1G/SEC have. NOBODY is going to take a pay cut to admit the UA to one of those conferences...........PERIOD

2) I will ask you again...Do you understand that the UA has a much lower media value than what the SEC/B1G are paying out??

3) Do you understand that the other members of the SEC/B1G would need to take a pay cut to admit the UA??

Using your logic (?) the UA should stay on the Titanic because we have a chance to get a seat on the Challenger

Sorry if my intellect is too much for you.

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry?

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out.

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out.

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today!

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry? It means only the schools with the highest media value will get whatever monies are left....and that will not be the UA

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out. Again, this is irrelevant. We will still have less media value than the other schools......they will NOT take a pay cut to let us in

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G. Totally illogical, again. The B1G and SEC are NOT going to expand just to lose money by paying the UA more than it is worth.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12. There is also the chance that you might come to your senses and realize that you have been wrong all along.......but I'm not holding my breath.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out. You keep shreaking about a $100M buyout........that can be negotiated

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today! It STILL leaves the B12 in a better position than the PAC6 or MWC12 or whatever conference we would wind up in if we follow your convoluted logic

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.

Outside of Notre Dame, who is valued at $60 million a year or more that is not already in the B1G or SEC? Answer is maybe nobody. This means some schools will be getting more than then their value to fill out content. Vanderbilt and Rutgers already fills this role. They aren't worth more than we are.

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout?

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time.

[dmjcat]

Show me your crystal ball that accurately predicts the future, please?!?

We know the networks like ESPN and FOX are the ones who really pull the strings. What we don't know is how these entities will look circa 2030. It's unlikely they will look like they do today, as more people cut cords, rumors are Disney is looking to sell whole or part of ESPN, and ESPN will likely go full streaming sooner rather than later. Is it not possible that FOX/ESPN dictates to the conferences that they want to consolidate? Go all-in on one big dog conference with 24 teams, versus trying to pay multiple deals with multiple conferences?

Again, show me your crystal ball where this 100%, is not the future of college sports, please. Because I believe it is a distinct possibility. And in this case, yes, one of these conferences may pay a team like Arizona $60 million, because they would be cutting ties with conferences like the BIG12 and whatever is leftover from the ACC. Which would mean anyone who is not in the top 2 conference is on the outside looking in. It's Coke, Pepsi, and a bunch of sodas that all fight for a minute amount of shelf space that nobody really cares about, because they are infinitesimally small.

Like I said before. There's a chance getting off the PAC to go to the BIG12 is leaving the Titanic only to get a ticket on the Lusitania.

Your argument/word salad is so illogical its hard to know where to start.

1) What the future of ESPN/Disney looks like is irrelevant. The UA will still have a much lower media value than what the existing
schools in the B1G/SEC have. NOBODY is going to take a pay cut to admit the UA to one of those conferences...........PERIOD

2) I will ask you again...Do you understand that the UA has a much lower media value than what the SEC/B1G are paying out??

3) Do you understand that the other members of the SEC/B1G would need to take a pay cut to admit the UA??

Using your logic (?) the UA should stay on the Titanic because we have a chance to get a seat on the Challenger

Sorry if my intellect is too much for you.

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry?

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out.

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out.

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today!

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry? It means only the schools with the highest media value will get whatever monies are left....and that will not be the UA

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out. Again, this is irrelevant. We will still have less media value than the other schools......they will NOT take a pay cut to let us in

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G. Totally illogical, again. The B1G and SEC are NOT going to expand just to lose money by paying the UA more than it is worth.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12. There is also the chance that you might come to your senses and realize that you have been wrong all along.......but I'm not holding my breath.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out. You keep shreaking about a $100M buyout........that can be negotiated

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today! It STILL leaves the B12 in a better position than the PAC6 or MWC12 or whatever conference we would wind up in if we follow your convoluted logic

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.

Outside of Notre Dame, who is valued at $60 million a year or more that is not already in the B1G or SEC? Answer is maybe nobody. This means some schools will be getting more than then their value to fill out content. Vanderbilt and Rutgers already fills this role. They aren't worth more than we are.

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout?

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time.

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.
Do you understand (evidently not) that your argument is irrelevant?? Regardless of what consolidation occurs it won't change the fact that the UA still won't have any media value and still will not be sought after by the B1G or SEC.......In fact, the UA will be even LESS desirable

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout? Again irrelevant.......the UA would be in MUCH worse shape in the PAC6 or MWCWhatever if we follow your suggestion and ESPN consolidates

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time. The vast majority are happy. A few clueless ones are unhappy.......they have their PHXCATS and AZCATFAN2's as well. There's 1 or 2 on every board

[TucsonCat]

Show me your crystal ball that accurately predicts the future, please?!?

We know the networks like ESPN and FOX are the ones who really pull the strings. What we don't know is how these entities will look circa 2030. It's unlikely they will look like they do today, as more people cut cords, rumors are Disney is looking to sell whole or part of ESPN, and ESPN will likely go full streaming sooner rather than later. Is it not possible that FOX/ESPN dictates to the conferences that they want to consolidate? Go all-in on one big dog conference with 24 teams, versus trying to pay multiple deals with multiple conferences?

Again, show me your crystal ball where this 100%, is not the future of college sports, please. Because I believe it is a distinct possibility. And in this case, yes, one of these conferences may pay a team like Arizona $60 million, because they would be cutting ties with conferences like the BIG12 and whatever is leftover from the ACC. Which would mean anyone who is not in the top 2 conference is on the outside looking in. It's Coke, Pepsi, and a bunch of sodas that all fight for a minute amount of shelf space that nobody really cares about, because they are infinitesimally small.

Like I said before. There's a chance getting off the PAC to go to the BIG12 is leaving the Titanic only to get a ticket on the Lusitania.

Your argument/word salad is so illogical its hard to know where to start.

1) What the future of ESPN/Disney looks like is irrelevant. The UA will still have a much lower media value than what the existing
schools in the B1G/SEC have. NOBODY is going to take a pay cut to admit the UA to one of those conferences...........PERIOD

2) I will ask you again...Do you understand that the UA has a much lower media value than what the SEC/B1G are paying out??

3) Do you understand that the other members of the SEC/B1G would need to take a pay cut to admit the UA??

Using your logic (?) the UA should stay on the Titanic because we have a chance to get a seat on the Challenger

Sorry if my intellect is too much for you.

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry?

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out.

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out.

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today!

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry? It means only the schools with the highest media value will get whatever monies are left....and that will not be the UA

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out. Again, this is irrelevant. We will still have less media value than the other schools......they will NOT take a pay cut to let us in

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G. Totally illogical, again. The B1G and SEC are NOT going to expand just to lose money by paying the UA more than it is worth.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12. There is also the chance that you might come to your senses and realize that you have been wrong all along.......but I'm not holding my breath.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out. You keep shreaking about a $100M buyout........that can be negotiated

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today! It STILL leaves the B12 in a better position than the PAC6 or MWC12 or whatever conference we would wind up in if we follow your convoluted logic

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.

Outside of Notre Dame, who is valued at $60 million a year or more that is not already in the B1G or SEC? Answer is maybe nobody. This means some schools will be getting more than then their value to fill out content. Vanderbilt and Rutgers already fills this role. They aren't worth more than we are.

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout?

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time.

Why is this so hard for some people to understand? Vanderbilt has been in the SEC since 1932. And guess what? Once upon a time, they were a football powerhouse. But regardless, well before any of this craziness was even a concern. Rutgers? Not a great program, but they own the New Jersey (i.e. New York) television market for the Big10. Guess what that region has that Tucson does not? About 10-million pairs of eyeballs to watch football. Arizona had none of that. A mega conference in today’s market is not going to waste money on a program that doesn’t bring in potential advertising revenue. Tucson does not bring in enough to come close to warranting an invite. The idea that consolidation will end up allowing a team to be overpaid is ridiculous. No business would ever operate that way and hope to survive. The money saved would be reinvested in money making ventures, or would be stockpiled for future downturns in the entertainment industry. But sure, let’s believe they would waste money on a non-revenue generating product like AZ, just to fill in more already low performing television space. Brilliant idea, Einstein.

[AzCatFan2]

Your argument/word salad is so illogical its hard to know where to start.

1) What the future of ESPN/Disney looks like is irrelevant. The UA will still have a much lower media value than what the existing
schools in the B1G/SEC have. NOBODY is going to take a pay cut to admit the UA to one of those conferences...........PERIOD

2) I will ask you again...Do you understand that the UA has a much lower media value than what the SEC/B1G are paying out??

3) Do you understand that the other members of the SEC/B1G would need to take a pay cut to admit the UA??

Using your logic (?) the UA should stay on the Titanic because we have a chance to get a seat on the Challenger

Sorry if my intellect is too much for you.

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry?

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out.

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out.

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today!

1. The future of ESPN and Disney is 100% relevant. They are paying the bills. What happens to all the monies college sports are making if the mouse runs out of cash and the well runs dry? It means only the schools with the highest media value will get whatever monies are left....and that will not be the UA

2. Yes, I understand we have less value then what the B1G and SEC are paying out. But ESPN and FOX are both consolidating and backing just one conference each, that means the BIG12 is out. That saves the ESPN and FOX money. But a 16-team conference is likely not enough content. So you expand to 24. What 16 college teams out there are more valuable than Arizona not already in the SEC or B1G? Like I said before, we're close to the cut-line. If we owe the BIG12 $100 million, that means we're likely out. Again, this is irrelevant. We will still have less media value than the other schools......they will NOT take a pay cut to let us in

3. Not true. Because again, FOX and ESPN will be consolidating. They won't be paying the BIG12 or the ACC any more money. They would reinvest this money into expanding the B1G and SEC respectively. 14 ACC teams at $20 million each, plus now 13 BIG12 teams at $31 million each is a lot of money ESPN and FOX could reinvest by adding more teams to the SEC and B1G. Totally illogical, again. The B1G and SEC are NOT going to expand just to lose money by paying the UA more than it is worth.

There's also the chance that the top schools in the ACC and PAC merge and create a third best conference that isn't at the level at the top 2, but competitive enough, and clearly better than the BIG12. There is also the chance that you might come to your senses and realize that you have been wrong all along.......but I'm not holding my breath.

But, by my logic, we go BIG12 now, that's our endgame. We have no other options after that. At least without coming up with a $100 million buy out. You keep shreaking about a $100M buyout........that can be negotiated

Logically, if FOX and ESPN does consolidate and each only backs one mega-conference, where does that leave the BIG12 when it comes to channel(s) it might be broadcast on? Likely the same choices the PAC is looking at today! It STILL leaves the B12 in a better position than the PAC6 or MWC12 or whatever conference we would wind up in if we follow your convoluted logic

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.

Outside of Notre Dame, who is valued at $60 million a year or more that is not already in the B1G or SEC? Answer is maybe nobody. This means some schools will be getting more than then their value to fill out content. Vanderbilt and Rutgers already fills this role. They aren't worth more than we are.

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout?

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time.

Do you understand the concept of consolidation? What happens to the money ESPN and FOX are currently paying BIG12 and ACC teams if the next round of contracts, they decide not to carry more than one major conference? It consolidates and can be paid to the B1G and SEC respectively. But it's unlikely 16 teams will provide enough content for FOX or ESPN. They will need to add teams to the big conferences.
Do you understand (evidently not) that your argument is irrelevant?? Regardless of what consolidation occurs it won't change the fact that the UA still won't have any media value and still will not be sought after by the B1G or SEC.......In fact, the UA will be even LESS desirable

We go BIG12 now, and when their TV contract runs out, we face the very real possibility of ESPN and FOX consolidating, and taking teams that aren't facing huge BIG12 buyouts. Even if we negotiate a $60 million buyout, why take Arizona when say Duke can be had at a much lesser buyout? Again irrelevant.......the UA would be in MUCH worse shape in the PAC6 or MWCWhatever if we follow your suggestion and ESPN consolidates

Many Colorado fans on their board are not happy. There are several making the exact same argument I'm making. They are now stuck in a 3rd best, at best conference, and likely there for a long time. Meanwhile, after 2030, the BIG12 could very well be shut out of ESPN and FOX, and the B1G and SEC might be growing at the same time. The vast majority are happy. A few clueless ones are unhappy.......they have their PHXCATS and AZCATFAN2's as well. There's 1 or 2 on every board

Let's do a little math problem. If there are potentially 16 spots left in the SEC and B1G combined circa 2030, and only Notre Dame is worth $60 million or more, how many schools valued at >$60 million could potentially get a coveted SEC or B1G spot? Please, tell me again how UA being valued less than $60 million is irrelevant if the BIG two conferences expand again?

ESPN is already consolidating. They let the MLS go. They let a bunch of top talent go. Rumors are Disney and Comcast might work out a deal where the NBA goes to Comcast/NBC. No guarantee that after 2030, the BIG12 will be on ESPN or FOX.

Last, metro areas are meaningless. Rutgers might be in New Jersey, but the whole NY/NJ area is a pro sports area. Nobody cares about Rutgers. But they are in now, and will be in the future. In no way, even located in the huge market, Rutgers is worth $60 million.

[Alieberman]

Guys… please shorten the messages you are quoting… this is getting ridiculous

[EastCoastCat]

Smart move by CU. They were always a better Big 12 football school so this makes sense on so many levels.

We better be fucking next.

[RondaeShimmy]

Nobody knows the future. But a conference with a $100 million payout is likely unlikely in the near future. The B1G has the largest at $60 million now. And the future of TV channels like ESPN and FS1 is cloudy at best.

It is possible that 16-team conferences are untenable, especially with the travel schedule. USC and UCLA are now in the same conference as Rutgers. Football might not travel that far that often, but what about softball or baseball? Teams usually work in a Tuesday game when they travel for a conference weekend. What does the travel schedule look like with this game added?

It's also possible that the SEC and B1G decide to expand to 24 the next round. That leaves 16 more schools who get a ticket punched to the top 2. Arizona is near the cut-line in my opinion of top 16 teams not in the B1G or SEC right now. If we have a $100 million buyout from the BIG12, this would all but put us on the outside looking in. If this happens, there will be little difference between who is the 3rd best conference and who is the 5th best conference.

The sec and big ten are never inviting Arizona because a school like Arizona would take more than they would bring in.

It's the reason the big ten aren't adding Washington and Oregon right now, because they would take far more than bring in right now. And it's only going to get worse from now on, those are bigger brands than us that would be moochers off of the big ten but wouldn't generate the revenue from neetworks

Why would schools admit another school that would cut into their revenue shares?

[AzCatFan2]

Why would the SEC or B1G take a member that brings in less money? Because the person holding the wallet, in this case ESPN or FOX, is consolidating. There may be a future with only a big 2 and crumbs for everyone else. In this future, FOX and ESPN only back their one big dog, and no longer carry anything but the SEC or B1G. But 16 schools do not produce enough content, so the networks ask the conferences to expand.

Which brings us to the math problem. If there are 16 spots open between the SEC and B1G in the future, and only Notre Dame is worth > $60 million, how many schools worth less than $60 million get invites to fill out the conference?

[azcat49]

This discussion about the SEC and the B1G is dumb IMO. What isn’t is that no one seems to want the PAC-12 media rights. Not providing any of the schools hard data shows things are very very bleak. That alone should make our decision easy

For those that want to wait for an offer, some timeline has to be drawn in the sand. 30 days at most or we go (should go right now but we are not obviously).

We can’t go into the start of the season not knowing where we will be. You have to do scheduling and other logistics a season out.

It’s sad the PAC is done but the ineptness of its Presidents got us here

[RondaeShimmy]

Why would the SEC or B1G take a member that brings in less money? Because the person holding the wallet, in this case ESPN or FOX, is consolidating. There may be a future with only a big 2 and crumbs for everyone else. In this future, FOX and ESPN only back their one big dog, and no longer carry anything but the SEC or B1G. But 16 schools do not produce enough content, so the networks ask the conferences to expand.

Which brings us to the math problem. If there are 16 spots open between the SEC and B1G in the future, and only Notre Dame is worth > $60 million, how many schools worth less than $60 million get invites to fill out the conference?

All of this from you and phoexmchina assumes that expansion is inevitable. Look at what actually has happened in expansion, only big brands are getting scooped up, UT and OU, and the LA schools.

The rest like Nebraska, TAMU, Colorado, Louisville, Pitt etc moving are just reactionary moves to fill a void. None of these moved scared anyone that there will be only a couple huge leagues left. Most of the moves are just the big 12 trying to keep itself afloat, which the pac 12 should be doing but they can't do that or get a tv deal.

Everyone just overreacts and assumes there will be huge expansion and consolidation that will only leave a couple conferences. But they ignore that UT/OU and the LA school's are big brands that actually add value to a conference. There isn't really big moves that can happen other than Notre Dame, or big 10/sec members swapping conferences for some reason.

ACC schools are tied for awhile, and only a few of those like FSU, Clemson, the U, VA tech would fit in the sec. UNC and maybe a couple others would fit in the B1G academically but they have to wait for ND to join and the B1G isn't expanding w/o them. And again, they would need to bring enough value to dramatically IMPROVE the revenue stream.

USC/UCLA essentially left a sinking boat. The conference leadership is pathetic. They wouldn't expand when they could've gotten Texas and OK schools. They wouldn't let in BYU, or anyone else. Now they can't add SDSU or smu (thank god). They can't get a tv deal to save themselves.

The almost for sure future is that there isn't going to be ground shaking alignment anymore other than trying to patch holes of schools leaving. None of these moves like Louisville moving for example is going to shake alignment like the two big moves from OU/UT and USC/UCLA moving or ND deciding to join would make.

If we stay we're essentially going to be in a glorified MWC conference. We really can't trust this conference leadership enough to stay even though I don't really love the academic and geographic part of it. They've done nothing to gain enough trust these past couple of decades to stay.

[dmjcat]

Another clueless post filled with fantasies

Let's do a little math problem. If there are potentially 16 spots left in the SEC and B1G combined circa 2030, and only Notre Dame is worth $60 million or more, how many schools valued at >$60 million could potentially get a coveted SEC or B1G spot? Please, tell me again how UA being valued less than $60 million is irrelevant if the BIG two conferences expand again? Potentially 16??? Thats just hope and drivel. The reality is that there are very few spots left open....maybe for a Notre Dame. NOBODY is going to take a team like the UA that has a lower media value than the conference payout. Thats BASIC Math which you appear to have serious issues with

ESPN is already consolidating. They let the MLS go. They let a bunch of top talent go. Rumors are Disney and Comcast might work out a deal where the NBA goes to Comcast/NBC. No guarantee that after 2030, the BIG12 will be on ESPN or FOX. More irrelevant drivel....ESPN/Disney are NOT going to overpay for a team like the UA which brings in less money than what the conference would pay out. Thats BASIC MATH...which again you seem to have problems with.

Last, metro areas are meaningless. Rutgers might be in New Jersey, but the whole NY/NJ area is a pro sports area. Nobody cares about Rutgers. But they are in now, and will be in the future. In no way, even located in the huge market, Rutgers is worth $60 million. What a crock....Metro areas are certainly valuable. Ask the B1G and ESPN if they think USC/UCLA are worth less because they are in the LA metro area. You really need to get a clue

[dmjcat]

Why would the SEC or B1G take a member that brings in less money? Because the person holding the wallet, in this case ESPN or FOX, is consolidating. There may be a future with only a big 2 and crumbs for everyone else. In this future, FOX and ESPN only back their one big dog, and no longer carry anything but the SEC or B1G. But 16 schools do not produce enough content, so the networks ask the conferences to expand.

Which brings us to the math problem. If there are 16 spots open between the SEC and B1G in the future, and only Notre Dame is worth > $60 million, how many schools worth less than $60 million get invites to fill out the conference?

My God, this is the most illogical drivel you have posted today. The networks are NOT Consolidating to pay out more money. They are trying to pay out LESS to increase their bottom lines. They are not going to increase their bottom line by overpaying for a team like the UA with a very low media value. Thats BASIC grade school level MATH. WAKE UP.

[AZCatGirl]

Colorado leaves and the plan is to stay the course. Great leadership.

[btfd16]

Colorado leaves and the plan is to stay the course. Great leadership.

The Pac as we know it is toast. Time to pack up.

[AzCatFan2]

If you think the changing television landscape is irrelevant, I have no words. The SEC and B1G are top dogs because ESPN and FOX are paying them. But what would happen if the well starts to run dry? Which it is, by the way. ESPN just laid off a lot of people, and more pain is likely coming as more people cut the cord.

Yes, there's no guarantee the SEC and B1G ever expand again. But right now, ESPN is will be paying for 16 SEC teams, 14 full ACC teams plus ND, and a minimum of now 13 BIG12 teams, with a 14th likely to come. Is it really that far fetched to think, in a future where everything is streaming, ESPN cuts the ACC and BIG 12 out, and instead of paying the 28 +1 teams in those conferences, they consolidate and pay for just 8 more in the SEC?

The savings would come from having less crews,less equipment, and less travel, covering only 24 campuses versus 44. ESPN couldn't do it alone, but partner with Comcast, they could. FOX could partner with CBS.

Two major conferences, 24 teams each, each with its own playoff to find a champ, followed by the two winners playing for the championship. Think NFL model.

Not saying this is the future. But it's a possible future. And in this scenario, the BIG12 becomes irrelevant. And in this future, teams not worth $60 million get invites to the big 2.

[TucsonCat]

Wrong. Simply wrong.

[dmjcat]

If you think the changing television landscape is irrelevant, I have no words. The SEC and B1G are top dogs because ESPN and FOX are paying them. But what would happen if the well starts to run dry? Which it is, by the way. ESPN just laid off a lot of people, and more pain is likely coming as more people cut the cord.

Yes, there's no guarantee the SEC and B1G ever expand again. But right now, ESPN is will be paying for 16 SEC teams, 14 full ACC teams plus ND, and a minimum of now 13 BIG12 teams, with a 14th likely to come. Is it really that far fetched to think, in a future where everything is streaming, ESPN cuts the ACC and BIG 12 out, and instead of paying the 28 +1 teams in those conferences, they consolidate and pay for just 8 more in the SEC?

The savings would come from having less crews,less equipment, and less travel, covering only 24 campuses versus 44. ESPN couldn't do it alone, but partner with Comcast, they could. FOX could partner with CBS.

Two major conferences, 24 teams each, each with its own playoff to find a champ, followed by the two winners playing for the championship. Think NFL model.

Not saying this is the future. But it's a possible future. And in this scenario, the BIG12 becomes irrelevant. And in this future, teams not worth $60 million get invites to the big 2.

More illogical drivel. If the money dries up......it dries up. The UA is not going to be on the winning side of that.

If ESPN/Whomever choose to fund only two conferences they are going to stock those conferences with teams that have HIGH MEDIA payouts (ESPN wants to make money). Anyone suggesting that the SEC (or the networks) are going to intentionally lose money by adding teams (UA) that have lower media payouts than what the conferences/media are paying is a BLITHERING IDIOT.

[AzCatFan2]

If you think the changing television landscape is irrelevant, I have no words. The SEC and B1G are top dogs because ESPN and FOX are paying them. But what would happen if the well starts to run dry? Which it is, by the way. ESPN just laid off a lot of people, and more pain is likely coming as more people cut the cord.

Yes, there's no guarantee the SEC and B1G ever expand again. But right now, ESPN is will be paying for 16 SEC teams, 14 full ACC teams plus ND, and a minimum of now 13 BIG12 teams, with a 14th likely to come. Is it really that far fetched to think, in a future where everything is streaming, ESPN cuts the ACC and BIG 12 out, and instead of paying the 28 +1 teams in those conferences, they consolidate and pay for just 8 more in the SEC?

The savings would come from having less crews,less equipment, and less travel, covering only 24 campuses versus 44. ESPN couldn't do it alone, but partner with Comcast, they could. FOX could partner with CBS.

Two major conferences, 24 teams each, each with its own playoff to find a champ, followed by the two winners playing for the championship. Think NFL model.

Not saying this is the future. But it's a possible future. And in this scenario, the BIG12 becomes irrelevant. And in this future, teams not worth $60 million get invites to the big 2.

More illogical drivel. If the money dries up......it dries up. The UA is not going to be on the winning side of that.

If ESPN/Whomever choose to fund only two conferences they are going to stock those conferences with teams that have HIGH MEDIA payouts (ESPN wants to make money). Anyone suggesting that the SEC (or the networks) are going to intentionally lose money by adding teams (UA) that have lower media payouts than what the conferences/media are paying is a BLITHERING IDIOT.

The money is already drying up. When that happens, businesses either try to raise revenues, tighten belts, or both. ESPN is a business. Consolidating the number of schools they broadcast is a way to tighten the belt. A NFL style SEC/B1G modeled after the AFC/NFC is a potential way to raise revenues.

It's one possible future. And I'm not the only one who thinks it might happen. https://csnbbs.com/thread-965129.html

https://bamahammer.com/2022/07/01/alaba ... -24-teams/

There's plenty more of you Google 24 team super conference, or something similar.

If this is the future, and granted, it's just one possibility, the BIG12 will be relegated to a non-power conference.

Call me illogical, crazy, or whatever you want. But the v real power in any situation is found in the purse strings. FOX and ESPN are contractually bound for now, but they could think the two, 24-team conferences is the best future. And what could stop them?

[dmjcat]

If you think the changing television landscape is irrelevant, I have no words. The SEC and B1G are top dogs because ESPN and FOX are paying them. But what would happen if the well starts to run dry? Which it is, by the way. ESPN just laid off a lot of people, and more pain is likely coming as more people cut the cord.

Yes, there's no guarantee the SEC and B1G ever expand again. But right now, ESPN is will be paying for 16 SEC teams, 14 full ACC teams plus ND, and a minimum of now 13 BIG12 teams, with a 14th likely to come. Is it really that far fetched to think, in a future where everything is streaming, ESPN cuts the ACC and BIG 12 out, and instead of paying the 28 +1 teams in those conferences, they consolidate and pay for just 8 more in the SEC?

The savings would come from having less crews,less equipment, and less travel, covering only 24 campuses versus 44. ESPN couldn't do it alone, but partner with Comcast, they could. FOX could partner with CBS.

Two major conferences, 24 teams each, each with its own playoff to find a champ, followed by the two winners playing for the championship. Think NFL model.

Not saying this is the future. But it's a possible future. And in this scenario, the BIG12 becomes irrelevant. And in this future, teams not worth $60 million get invites to the big 2.

More illogical drivel. If the money dries up......it dries up. The UA is not going to be on the winning side of that.

If ESPN/Whomever choose to fund only two conferences they are going to stock those conferences with teams that have HIGH MEDIA payouts (ESPN wants to make money). Anyone suggesting that the SEC (or the networks) are going to intentionally lose money by adding teams (UA) that have lower media payouts than what the conferences/media are paying is a BLITHERING IDIOT.

The money is already drying up. When that happens, businesses either try to raise revenues, tighten belts, or both. ESPN is a business. Consolidating the number of schools they broadcast is a way to tighten the belt. A NFL style SEC/B1G modeled after the AFC/NFC is a potential way to raise revenues.

It's one possible future. And I'm not the only one who thinks it might happen. https://csnbbs.com/thread-965129.html

https://bamahammer.com/2022/07/01/alaba ... -24-teams/

There's plenty more of you Google 24 team super conference, or something similar.

If this is the future, and granted, it's just one possibility, the BIG12 will be relegated to a non-power conference.

Call me illogical, crazy, or whatever you want. But the v real power in any situation is found in the purse strings. FOX and ESPN are contractually bound for now, but they could think the two, 24-team conferences is the best future. And what could stop them?

All of which is completely IRRELEVANT.

Regardless of what consolidation occurs, Regardless of what happens to ESPN, the UA is NOT going to be invited to join the B1G or the SEC.

The UA has a LOWER MEDIA value than those conferences pay out.....'do you UNDERSTAND that??????

Whether its ESPN or the SEC/B1G conference members they will want nothing to do with cutting their payouts/profits just to have the UA in their conference.

This really isn't complicated........You have to be the most 1 dimensional thinker on this board.

[EastCoastCat]

DM - I'm sorry but posting it twice won't make AzCatFan2 understand.

People are allowed to be as delusional as they want until the bitter end. Let's just hope Robbins and Heeke are not in that camp.

[EastCoastCat]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... onference/

[AzCatFan2]

If you think the changing television landscape is irrelevant, I have no words. The SEC and B1G are top dogs because ESPN and FOX are paying them. But what would happen if the well starts to run dry? Which it is, by the way. ESPN just laid off a lot of people, and more pain is likely coming as more people cut the cord.

Yes, there's no guarantee the SEC and B1G ever expand again. But right now, ESPN is will be paying for 16 SEC teams, 14 full ACC teams plus ND, and a minimum of now 13 BIG12 teams, with a 14th likely to come. Is it really that far fetched to think, in a future where everything is streaming, ESPN cuts the ACC and BIG 12 out, and instead of paying the 28 +1 teams in those conferences, they consolidate and pay for just 8 more in the SEC?

The savings would come from having less crews,less equipment, and less travel, covering only 24 campuses versus 44. ESPN couldn't do it alone, but partner with Comcast, they could. FOX could partner with CBS.

Two major conferences, 24 teams each, each with its own playoff to find a champ, followed by the two winners playing for the championship. Think NFL model.

Not saying this is the future. But it's a possible future. And in this scenario, the BIG12 becomes irrelevant. And in this future, teams not worth $60 million get invites to the big 2.

More illogical drivel. If the money dries up......it dries up. The UA is not going to be on the winning side of that.

If ESPN/Whomever choose to fund only two conferences they are going to stock those conferences with teams that have HIGH MEDIA payouts (ESPN wants to make money). Anyone suggesting that the SEC (or the networks) are going to intentionally lose money by adding teams (UA) that have lower media payouts than what the conferences/media are paying is a BLITHERING IDIOT.

The money is already drying up. When that happens, businesses either try to raise revenues, tighten belts, or both. ESPN is a business. Consolidating the number of schools they broadcast is a way to tighten the belt. A NFL style SEC/B1G modeled after the AFC/NFC is a potential way to raise revenues.

It's one possible future. And I'm not the only one who thinks it might happen. https://csnbbs.com/thread-965129.html

https://bamahammer.com/2022/07/01/alaba ... -24-teams/

There's plenty more of you Google 24 team super conference, or something similar.

If this is the future, and granted, it's just one possibility, the BIG12 will be relegated to a non-power conference.

Call me illogical, crazy, or whatever you want. But the v real power in any situation is found in the purse strings. FOX and ESPN are contractually bound for now, but they could think the two, 24-team conferences is the best future. And what could stop them?

All of which is completely IRRELEVANT.

Regardless of what consolidation occurs, Regardless of what happens to ESPN, the UA is NOT going to be invited to join the B1G or the SEC.

The UA has a LOWER MEDIA value than those conferences pay out.....'do you UNDERSTAND that??????

Whether its ESPN or the SEC/B1G conference members they will want nothing to do with cutting their payouts/profits just to have the UA in their conference.

This really isn't complicated........You have to be the most 1 dimensional thinker on this board.

Again, only one school, Notre Dame, has a media value north of what the B1G and SEC are getting. So, if the B1G and SEC do expand to 24 each, guess what happens? Schools with media values less than $60 million get invites! Why can't UA be one of them? Wouldn't be assured, but if the future is 48 teams between top 2 conferences, UA is right near the cut line.

And why would FOX and ESPN go this direction? One, to save money. Fewer crews, fewer production teams, less travel. Employees are generally a business' largest expense.

Now, imagine the playoff model in this scenario. The SEC and B1G each have 4 divisions with 6 teams each. Division winners plus 2 wildcards make the playoffs. Winner of each conference plays each other for a championship. Sound familiar? It's basically the NFL model. And the NFL regular season is generally the most exciting, with the largest TV ratings. Why? Because almost every game matters.

In MLB, you can get swept in a series in June, but nobody will remember if you win your division. NFL? Lose 3 straight games and most likely you won't make the playoffs. To combat this, MLB keeps adding wildcard playoff teams, because when a team is in the hunt for a playoff spot, attendance goes up. So does TV viewers.

If college goes the NFL model, there will be several important games with playoff implications every week. That creates intrigue, which drives people to watch, which drives TV revenue.

Can't say for sure what the numbers would be, but a reduction in coverage plus potential increase in viewers may mean this is the most profitable path for ESPN and FOX. And know what? It can't Hakeem unless schools with lower media values less than what the B1G and SEC currently pays get invites to the big 2.

[PHXCATS]

I am genuinely curious

We have seen and heard so many national writers and college football people say they expect more changes after these current tv deals come up and when we are in the expanded football playoff for a while.

What do you think that means? Do you think both the SEC and B1G stay at 16 each at that point?

[PHXCATS]

Or let's say we have four 20 team conferences in 2030 and espn redoes the ACC contracts and GOR

I would personally rather be in the ACC than the Big 12 at that point

[dmjcat]

Again, only one school, Notre Dame, has a media value north of what the B1G and SEC are getting. So, if the B1G and SEC do expand to 24 each, guess what happens? Schools with media values less than $60 million get invites! Why can't UA be one of them? Wouldn't be assured, but if the future is 48 teams between top 2 conferences, UA is right near the cut line.

The answer is simple (at least for most people) The conferences will NOT expand unless it makes economic sense. Both the conferences and the networks would have to make money to want to expand. The UA football enterprise does NOT pass muster for a B1G/SEC from an economic standpoint. Both the Networks and the individual conference members would lose money if they added the UA......The UA has a much lower media value than what the Big 2 conferences are paying out. If you can't grasp this 2nd grade math concept I can't help you

[dmjcat]

https://247sports.com/article/2023-conf ... 213304867/

Yormark's primary target is Arizona, sources tell 247Sports. The university is open to discussing its future and the Big 12 has communicated with the Wildcats' leadership for several months. Members of Arizona's board of regents have expressed a desire to keep Arizona State and Arizona in the same conference, sources tell 247Sports, but that is not expected to be a roadblock if the Wildcats want to go alone and join Colorado in the Big 12. Arizona State's university leadership has been cautious with the changing landscape and is not bullish on moving to the Big 12, sources tell 247Sports.

[dmjcat]

https://saturdayoutwest.com/arizona-wil ... er-report/

[RondaeShimmy]

Looks like when George is forced to show any deal and it's bad, Arizona will bounce

[RondaeShimmy]

[CardiacCats97]

You don’t want to be the school without a Big12 chair when the music stops. The time to go is now. Not in two months when Kliavkoff is still pretending he’ll have numbers to share “soon”.

[84Cat]

So not 16 teams or is he bluffing to get more movement?

[PHXCATS]

The panic of you all is crazy

No one can see beyond next year.

[AzCatFan2]

Again, only one school, Notre Dame, has a media value north of what the B1G and SEC are getting. So, if the B1G and SEC do expand to 24 each, guess what happens? Schools with media values less than $60 million get invites! Why can't UA be one of them? Wouldn't be assured, but if the future is 48 teams between top 2 conferences, UA is right near the cut line.

The answer is simple (at least for most people) The conferences will NOT expand unless it makes economic sense. Both the conferences and the networks would have to make money to want to expand. The UA football enterprise does NOT pass muster for a B1G/SEC from an economic standpoint. Both the Networks and the individual conference members would lose money if they added the UA......The UA has a much lower media value than what the Big 2 conferences are paying out. If you can't grasp this 2nd grade math concept I can't help you

I agree, conferences won't expand unless it makes economic sense...for the TV networks. They are the ones who control the purse strings. And if two, 24-team conferences in an NFL model is the most efficient for the TV networks, i.e., most revenues and least expenses, that's the direction the TV networks will pursue. And this means, again, more teams will be added to the SEC and B1G. And guess how many schools with a media value less than the current deal will get an invite? Here's a hint. Only one school has more media value than current SEC and B1G contracts.

You are looking at things as if current contract conditions will remain past the end of current contracts. That's highly unlikely, especially considering the changing television market with the rise of streaming and cord cutting. Think beyond 2030. And if ESPN and FOX believe two, 24-team conferences is the best way forward, how does the B1G and SEC get there without inviting teams that are currently valued less than $60 million? Answer, they don't. If you can't understand this concept, I can't help you.

Is the two, 24-team conference concept the future? Nobody knows. But it may be, especially if this model decreases costs and increases revenues better than any other model for the TV networks.

[84Cat]

[arizonawildcats]

[RondaeShimmy]

So not 16 teams or is he bluffing to get more movement?

They'll only go to 14 teams this round of expansion for a couple years, and it's likely Arizona or UConn

It's maybe just trying to put pressure schools

[84Cat]

According to this guy the Pac presidents did not agree on expansion so we are staying at 9 for now

[SabinoDrifter]

I know it's not an apples-to-apples since Arizona Stadium is much smaller, but Penn State got 106,626 for a noon kickoff against Central Michigan and Arizona drew 36K for their conference opener. The B1G or SEC isn't going to pay attention to Arizona.

[azcat49]

Robbins might be in a tough spot given he is chairing that leadership committee and he has stated he would wait to see the media deal offer first.

He doesn’t seem like a guy you can pressure . Giving him a deadline might not be the best move but then again, they do have to make some decisions. I really wonder if Robbins is blowing up GK’s phone?

[arizonawildcats]

[Alieberman]

I have stayed out of this and I can at least admit I don't know shit about any of this but...

But it seems to me... if just 1 more team bolts... the Pac is finished... and will basically become the new Mountain West.

It seems very likely at least 1 more team will bolt as soon as they have a deal to their liking.

It really seems to be a no brainer to take this spot in the Big 12... and I say that as a father whose oldest will be starting at the UofA next month and I always wanted my kids to go to Pac-12 schools

[RondaeShimmy]

[CardiacCats97]

I love it that another conference wants us and doesn’t give a shit about ASU. Maybe it’s Crow telling other conferences to buzz off, but I like to think it’s because they are a bunch of cheating losers.

[OSUCat]

Well, that’s a list of teams that could be on Arizona non conference schedule…..sounds terrible for in conference.

[Carcassdragger]

We need to salvage the PAC and bring in SDSU or recruiting will be a bitch. Southern California kids are going to want to play near home once in a while and we're not generally going to be able to compete for Texas kids if we go to the Big 12.

[EastCoastCat]

If UCONN joins the Big 12 instead of us I will be REALLY pissed off.

[CopaCat]

I know it's not an apples-to-apples since Arizona Stadium is much smaller, but Penn State got 106,626 for a noon kickoff against Central Michigan and Arizona drew 36K for their conference opener. The B1G or SEC isn't going to pay attention to Arizona.

Doesn't help our Football program has been mostly terrible since Tomey, except a few Stoops/Rich Rod years. We have also never won a consequential post season game in our history, save the 1994 Fiesta Bowl and 1998 Holiday Bowl. If we built a perennial contender you could guarantee the excitement level in Tucson would increase exponentially and suddenly poor little Arizona wouldn't look like a financially destitute pig to the big boys. Will that actually ever happen? Never say never.

[RondaeShimmy]

Looks like the meeting yesterday went badly

[RondaeShimmy]

Kliavkoff held a meeting with Pac-12 Presidents and Athletic Directors on Thursday and sources indicate to WildcatAuthority that it could not have gone worse. At a time where the schools want and need clarity, Kliavkoff was unable to give it.

The Wildcats never wanted to be the first to go and Colorado got that out of the way. Robbins will now ask for numbers like he has in the past and they won’t be presented. Eventually the Big 12 will push a little bit and when that happens, Arizona is likely to go.