Conference Realignment

[azgreg]

[ChooChooCat]

So haven't been following this, like has been said, it's Groundhog Day again, but this this is the gist?

Amazon for most games streaming, with ESPN having first choice doing the 10pm ET games.

SDSU and SMU to join before the contract is signed.

Amazon/ESPN offering $250M, now is that for 10 or 12 schools?


Can't imagine PAC presidents relishing SDSU. There was a reason SDSU was never invited to the PAC for decades.

I've heard Amazon will have first choice. ESPN gets its late night game. Amazon/ESPN+ gets the rest. So that's 5/6 on streaming only. I haven't heard about basketball, but late night ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN+ is what we're likely in for.

Yeah it's bad. The fact that people inside the Pac-12 are openly talking about how bad it is is a very bad sign for the future of the Pac-12.

[ChooChooCat]

The other night in the Big 12 a couple of top teams (they all are but this was Kansas/KState) we’re playing on +. You could hear the angst from Kansas fans when they couldn’t watch the game.

There's a reason for that.

In regards to basketball, the TV networks decide which games will air on the main networks and which will go to Tier 3 before the season even tips off. Kansas State was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12, hence why their game against Kansas was pegged for ESPN+. Nobody expected that to be a matchup of top 10 teams. So a top 10 matchup on ESPN+ is ridiculously rare and would take a major surprise to occur again like KSU this year.

[ChooChooCat]

With NIL now, I dont think people fully grasp how much media rights money means to the University

A lot of the money that boosters were giving to improve the locker room or weight room is now going to the NIL collectives. But Arizona still needs to keep its facilities up to date and with less booster donations this is how you make up for it, media rights

Actually with NIL now, I don't think people here fully grasp how important exposure is to the University. Money is always required of course, but we are in no position to make SEC/B1G money. If the money the Pac 12 is expected to make via heavy streaming is similar to the Big 12's TV deal which is primarily on Television, then it should be a no brainer decision. Streaming heavy is not a recipe for success this decade in regards to exposure.

[ChooChooCat]

We survived with a significant portion of our games on the PAC-12 Network, which had less distribution than any streaming service. We won't die with half our games being streamed. In fact, we might actually thrive? It's high risk, but with high risk often comes high reward. And with more and more people cutting cords, and networks like Fox and ESPN getting less and less carriage fees from cable providers, as this article states, the future of live sports is streaming (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... itional-tv) It's not if, it's when.

Also remember, that the BIG 12 new contract basically designates all T3 content to ESPN+. It's not like we're going to get away from streaming, unless we can get an invite to the SEC of B1G. And fat chance of that happening any time soon, if ever.

You are so out of touch with reality. This forum is dumber for having you post never ending drivel in this thread. Nothing you post has a shred of accuracy to it let alone rational thought.

[GlobalCat]

You are so out of touch with reality. This forum is dumber for having you post never ending drivel in this thread. Nothing you post has a shred of accuracy to it let alone rational thought.

You are better than this.

[ChooChooCat]

You are so out of touch with reality. This forum is dumber for having you post never ending drivel in this thread. Nothing you post has a shred of accuracy to it let alone rational thought.

You are better than this.

I'm not though. I'm tired of the drivel. I care about the health of Arizona Athletics and what he/she has been advocating for is the literal death of Arizona Athletics.

[CardiacCats97]

We survived with a significant portion of our games on the PAC-12 Network, which had less distribution than any streaming service. We won't die with half our games being streamed. In fact, we might actually thrive? It's high risk, but with high risk often comes high reward. And with more and more people cutting cords, and networks like Fox and ESPN getting less and less carriage fees from cable providers, as this article states, the future of live sports is streaming (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... itional-tv) It's not if, it's when.

Also remember, that the BIG 12 new contract basically designates all T3 content to ESPN+. It's not like we're going to get away from streaming, unless we can get an invite to the SEC of B1G. And fat chance of that happening any time soon, if ever.

You know that part in The Truman Show when Jim Carey is arguing with his wife and she turns to where she knows a camera is and launches into an ad for dish soap or something and he looks at her and says, “Who the hell are you talking to??”

My dude, that’s what I think when I read your posts. You’re acting like we didn’t all just read how the conference is circling the drain. You are the Iraqi Information Minister telling everyone the Americans aren’t driving a column of tanks into Baghdad while anyone could switch the channel to CNN and watch it live.

You should stop. If you’ve convinced even one person that it’s a good idea to stick with this dead horse of a conference, I would be beyond surprised.

[azcat49]

Tubelis could score 60 a night and no one will see it or hear about it other than streaming AZ fans

I can’t believe this has gone from bad to worse. Wait, it’s the PAC, of course it would

[AzCatFan2]

Anyone tell me, in 5 years, at the continued rate of cord cutting, how ESPN and FOX are going to be able to afford paying sports contracts with significantly reduced carriage rate payments from traditional cable companies? Cable companies have lost over 25 million subscribers already, and are losing 5 million more a year, in average, every year. https://www.zippia.com/advice/cord-cutting-statistics/

Just because you don't like what I'm saying, doesn't make it wrong. ESPN continues to raise its carriage fees and its up to over $7.50 per subscriber. At 4 million cord cutters, this equates to $30 million ESPN stands to lose in revenue this year alone! How do you think ESPN will make up this difference? It's not like expenses are going down.

ESPN will likely raise carriage fees, but when they do, it means only more cord cutters. It's a draining cycle, with the answer being get more people subscribing to ESPN+. How do they do that? Put more premium content on streaming only. What other answer do they have? If anyone has some good answers, you can post it here. But I'd also suggest giving your resume to Robert Iger, head of Disney.

The future of live sports will include more and more streaming. It already does with TNF, MLS on Apple, NASCAR on Peacock, etc. No college conference will be able to escape this fact forever, especially when ESPN and FOX need to start paying their new SEC and B1G contracts respectively soon.

If anyone wants to actually debate what I wrote instead of mindlessly insulting me, which is a sign you will lose the debate if you engage, I'd love to hear a good rebuttal. Bottom line, if the money is better in the PAC, we should stay. If not, we should leave. A good number of games will be streaming in the future regardless. Including plenty of T3 BIG 12 games.

[azgreg]

Scroll past activated.

[EastCoastCat]

We survived with a significant portion of our games on the PAC-12 Network, which had less distribution than any streaming service. We won't die with half our games being streamed. In fact, we might actually thrive? It's high risk, but with high risk often comes high reward. And with more and more people cutting cords, and networks like Fox and ESPN getting less and less carriage fees from cable providers, as this article states, the future of live sports is streaming (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... itional-tv) It's not if, it's when.

Also remember, that the BIG 12 new contract basically designates all T3 content to ESPN+. It's not like we're going to get away from streaming, unless we can get an invite to the SEC of B1G. And fat chance of that happening any time soon, if ever.

Please, please just stop for Christs sake…

[GlobalCat]

FWIW, most of the major distribution players have either recently completed major re-orgs (Amazon in Jan) or knew major re-orgs were pending (see Disney's announcement yesterday). Major deals rarely get some during these times transition. Numbers get tossed around to keep deal talk alive, but things don't get signed until the accountable executives get settled into what they will prioritize during their tenure.

And AzCatFan isn't wrong on macro-media trends. Its a different perspective than a school-specific viewpoint, but not factually wrong.

[azgreg]

[CardiacCats97]

Bottom line, if the money is better in the PAC, we should stay. If not, we should leave.

Did you read today about how the chances of the money being better in the PAC is very very slim?

I just saved you from typing 30 more novel-length posts continuing to desperately try to convince everyone it would be better to stay.

You’re welcome.

[ChooChooCat]

FWIW, most of the major distribution players have either recently completed major re-orgs (Amazon in Jan) or knew major re-orgs were pending (see Disney's announcement yesterday). Major deals rarely get some during these times transition. Numbers get tossed around to keep deal talk alive, but things don't get signed until the accountable executives get settled into what they will prioritize during their tenure.

And AzCatFan isn't wrong on macro-media trends. Its a different perspective than a school-specific viewpoint, but not factually wrong.

What are the macro-media trends for viewing sports?

[84Cat]

[ChooChooCat]

The Big 12 has all the juice right now and just got a big recruiting pitch with that $100 million.

[84Cat]

[KillerKlown]

We survived with a significant portion of our games on the PAC-12 Network, which had less distribution than any streaming service. We won't die with half our games being streamed. In fact, we might actually thrive? It's high risk, but with high risk often comes high reward. And with more and more people cutting cords, and networks like Fox and ESPN getting less and less carriage fees from cable providers, as this article states, the future of live sports is streaming (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... itional-tv) It's not if, it's when.

Also remember, that the BIG 12 new contract basically designates all T3 content to ESPN+. It's not like we're going to get away from streaming, unless we can get an invite to the SEC of B1G. And fat chance of that happening any time soon, if ever.

Conferences that matter want the exact opposite of what you want. They want tv contracts. They've probably even invested millions into researching it and coming to that conclusion. The amount of copium you have is enough to od an elephant.

[AZCatGirl]

I'd love to listen in on this conversation.

[AzCatFan2]

We survived with a significant portion of our games on the PAC-12 Network, which had less distribution than any streaming service. We won't die with half our games being streamed. In fact, we might actually thrive? It's high risk, but with high risk often comes high reward. And with more and more people cutting cords, and networks like Fox and ESPN getting less and less carriage fees from cable providers, as this article states, the future of live sports is streaming (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-a ... itional-tv) It's not if, it's when.

Also remember, that the BIG 12 new contract basically designates all T3 content to ESPN+. It's not like we're going to get away from streaming, unless we can get an invite to the SEC of B1G. And fat chance of that happening any time soon, if ever.

Conferences that matter want the exact opposite of what you want. They want tv contracts. They've probably even invested millions into researching it and coming to that conclusion. The amount of copium you have is enough to od an elephant.

It's not what I want. It's the ugly truth of macro trends in televised sports. And ugly truths are still the truth. And that truth is cord cutters are cutting into the carriage fees networks like ESPN are getting. By the tune of tens of millions in less revenues per year from carriage fees.

Networks have to make this revenue up somewhere, especially with increased costs. Raising carriage fees per customer won't do it, because it will lead to more cord cutters. The way to make up the revenue is more streaming subscribers.

Conferences like the SEC and B1G might be to hold on longer before ESPN and FOX push some T1 content to streaming, but other conferences may not have that luxury. Still, by next round of negotiations, 5 years from now, if an additional 20 million have cut cords, that's a ton of revenue lost. What other options will the big networks have?

What I want? A B1G invite or a SEC western expansion that includes us. Those aren't happening any time b soon, if ever. Next best thing? If we can make more money staying in the PAC, that's our best bet in my opinion.

[CardiacCats97]

I'd love to listen in on this conversation.

Hopefully Heeke is giving him some version of “it’s not us, it’s you” but I’m not hopeful.

[AZCatGirl]

I'd love to listen in on this conversation.

Hopefully Heeke is giving him some version of “it’s not us, it’s you” but I’m not hopeful.

[dmjcat]

[GlobalCat]

FWIW, most of the major distribution players have either recently completed major re-orgs (Amazon in Jan) or knew major re-orgs were pending (see Disney's announcement yesterday). Major deals rarely get some during these times transition. Numbers get tossed around to keep deal talk alive, but things don't get signed until the accountable executives get settled into what they will prioritize during their tenure.

And AzCatFan isn't wrong on macro-media trends. Its a different perspective than a school-specific viewpoint, but not factually wrong.

What are the macro-media trends for viewing sports?

https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/l ... are-ready/

[GlobalCat]

FWIW, most of the major distribution players have either recently completed major re-orgs (Amazon in Jan) or knew major re-orgs were pending (see Disney's announcement yesterday). Major deals rarely get some during these times transition. Numbers get tossed around to keep deal talk alive, but things don't get signed until the accountable executives get settled into what they will prioritize during their tenure.

And AzCatFan isn't wrong on macro-media trends. Its a different perspective than a school-specific viewpoint, but not factually wrong.

What are the macro-media trends for viewing sports?

https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/l ... are-ready/

Fwiw, live sports (along with local news) are one of the few ties that have kept people on cable packages. As infrastructure is proven to support live streaming broadcasts (and content expands), that last pillar crumbles.

[azcat49]

If Kliavkoph was at the game that seems to hint we have at least told them we are not happy with things and might bolt. He had to be here on a mission to conserve

[AzCatFan2]

FWIW, most of the major distribution players have either recently completed major re-orgs (Amazon in Jan) or knew major re-orgs were pending (see Disney's announcement yesterday). Major deals rarely get some during these times transition. Numbers get tossed around to keep deal talk alive, but things don't get signed until the accountable executives get settled into what they will prioritize during their tenure.

And AzCatFan isn't wrong on macro-media trends. Its a different perspective than a school-specific viewpoint, but not factually wrong.

What are the macro-media trends for viewing sports?

https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/l ... are-ready/

Fwiw, live sports (along with local news) are one of the few ties that have kept people on cable packages. As infrastructure is proven to support live streaming broadcasts (and content expands), that last pillar crumbles.

A very old technology is actually becoming a player again in TV. Especially those who just want the local news. The antenna. According to this Forbes article, over 8.5 million TV antennas were bought in 2021 alone (https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardhomo ... 7612f6aad7)

If you go back to the previous cord cutting link, it also gives demographics. 80% of those 65 and older in the US subscribe to cable. That number for 18 - 29 year olds is only 34% and falling. Begs the question, what are things going to look like 10 years from now?

Again, the bigger players like the B1G and SEC can put off the coming streaming of premium content. But when next contract negotiations roll out, ESPN and FOX will be paying these conferences more than ever, while making less and less off of carriage fees as more people cut the cord. The networks can charge more for advertising, but they run the risk of pricing companies out of spots. The answer will be more and more live sports, including some premium content, on streaming services.

I wish we were aligned with one of those bigger brands and could delay the inevitable for as long as possible. But that's not the truth we're facing in the PAC. It isn't the truth for the BIG 12 either. They already have many games streaming on ESPN+, and I bet we're all getting advertising about the BIG 12, AAC, and other conference basketball games showing exclusively on ESPN+. It's always a risk being the first, but with greater risk comes greater potential for rewards. And the next round of contracts five years from now, I'd be absolutely shocked if streaming wasn't a major part of the negotiations for all conferences.

[Merkin]

If Kliavkoph was at the game that seems to hint we have at least told them we are not happy with things and might bolt. He had to be here on a mission to conserve

Seems pretty much the case.

[84Cat]

[PHXCATS]

Just remember who people's sources are

[FreeSpiritCat]

Definitely the way I watch UA has changed. I've cut the cord based on the incredible cost, especially when you include all the fees. I'm guessing the average cost is over $150/month because of adding the Pac-12 Network channels, receiver, DVR etc...

I am not a fan of the streaming service options like FUBO, Sling, Vidgo. It's still too expensive for what I would receive. I only care about watching UA sports. I don't watch TV. And it is rare I can watch a game live because I'm working.

Furthermore I hate that I have to pay $23 for the priviledge of watching local channels. Antennas don't work where I live because I live in a river valley, and no clear site to the broadcast antennas. I can get local CBS through Paramount+ and local NBC through Peacock. Fox and ABC I'm out of luck unless I buy the more expensive packages.

I am all for any service that can play live games, or be able to replay games without having to deliver a treasure chest full of coins for the privelege if being able to watch the Cats. If I can pay $140 per year to watch all MLB games live and on demand. Why should I have to pay almost that much per month to be able to watch all the Cats games? I am for streaming services if I can see all the games on demand and can save me money.

[Merkin]

I'm with you Cith. I cut the cord many years ago and never ever thought about getting satellite again. Just nothing on TV I want to watch with commercials. I stream everything, and pay for Paramount+ and Peacock not to get commercials.

I just turn on Sling when UA football season starts, and turn it off the day the MBB loses their last game. It has a DVR feature, but have never used it.

Streaming really is the future.


Both Disney Channel and ESPN each lost 2 million subscribers this fiscal year, The Walt Disney Co. reported Tuesday. At 74 million subscribers, the two cable networks are the media conglomerate's largest, according to the filing Disney disclosed through the Securities and Exchange Commission.

[CardiacCats97]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

[84Cat]

Just remember who people's sources are

Who is Jason's source?

[dirtbags]

aw man, the dissolution of the pac will break uncle bill's heart (and mine). whatever happened to the possible acc broadcast alliance with espn? i've lost track, though i seem to remember jon wilner of all ppl hyping it up

[azgreg]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

They would still be sources.

[GlobalCat]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

Location matters quite a bit on personal perspective/preferences too.

Lots of Cats fans don't live in Arizona. OTA + cable bring along geographic restrictions the games being shown. It may be shown on ESPN in Tucson, but elsewhere the games feature some local schools that no one cares about. The Pac-12 Network shit the bed because they tried streaming, but under the limitations of traditional cable agreements. ESPN is frustrating for the same reason (and ESPN+ is obnoxious).

With DTC streaming, those limitations go out the window.

[GlobalCat]

Seems pretty much the case.

Huh? Musing from some random Kansas fan?

[Merkin]

Huh? Musing from some random Kansas fan?

He has the same source Scheer has.

But all everyone is doing is speculating. Amazed that there hasn't been any real leaks with all the people involved.

[PHXCATS]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

That is not the point

[PHXCATS]

Just remember who people's sources are

Who is Jason's source?

Not the same as Canzano or Wilner or Dodd or others.

You can piece it all together

[PHXCATS]

And that is not an attack on Scheer in any way what so ever.

I am simply saying think of who the sources are or most likely are when you get information like that.

No one will say outright who their sources are but you can figure it out a bit based on the stories that are broken

[AzCatFan2]

We have no idea who the sources are, nor what kind of negotiator Kliavkoff is. It's possible that Kliavkoff and his people are behind some of negative leaks, but a deal is already done that will make the PAC teams happy. Kliavkoff then comes off as a white knight hero who struggled, but came out victorious. This is pure speculation on my part, and not saying this is what is happening. Just saying it's one possible explanation.

I think the real problem is the two large schools, Oregon and UW, want out. But while the B1G put the PAC on life support, the B1G has decided not to pull the plug yet, and take the two PAC NW schools. But if the 4-corner schools went BIG 12, that would leave the PAC with just 6, which triggers the NCAA pulling the P5 designation, and the B1G would have no guilt in picking up the two PAC NW schools, plus maybe Stanford and CAL. Behind the scenes, I think Oregon and UW are doing everything to muck up the PAC negotiations so they can get out.

The two AZ schools may be ready to leave, but Utah and Colorado would rather stay in the PAC than go BIG 12. And I'm sure if the BIG 12 takes just the two AZ schools. We're additions, but would only bring the Phoenix market, whereas the other 4-corner schools would bring Phx, SLC, and Denver. If just the two AZ schools leave without UU and CU, Oregon and UW are still stuck in the PAC.

[PHXCATS]

Seems pretty clear that by the final four we will either hear U of A is moving to the Big 12 or George pulled out a major move beyond SDSU and SMU

I would think that George would want an announcement on expansion and TV by March 8th, the first day of the PAC-12 tournament.

[CardiacCats97]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

That is not the point

You told us to remember who peoples’ sources are, but we don’t actually know who peoples’ sources are. If you do, you should share that info so we can all be as informed as you are.

[PHXCATS]

Just remember who people's sources are

If we knew who people’s sources were, they wouldn’t be sources. They’d be quoted and named interviewees.

That is not the point

You told us to remember who peoples’ sources are, but we don’t actually know who peoples’ sources are. If you do, you should share that info so we can all be as informed as you are.

If you put some thought into it it is clear who people are talking to.

University presidents and ADs will say different things and have different viewpoints than assistant coaches for example.

I am not claiming to be informed more than you are. But I have ideas who talks to recruiting websites and I have ideas who national writers talk to. I factor that in with what I am told from recruiting website editors and what I am told from national writers.

What do they know. Who do they know. What is their goal. What information may they have that other people wouldnt. Etc

[GlobalCat]

Huh? Musing from some random Kansas fan?

He has the same source Scheer has.

But all everyone is doing is speculating. Amazed that there hasn't been any real leaks with all the people involved.

Ha! So Big 12/Kansas/KSU rumors?

[azcat49]

We have no idea who the sources are, nor what kind of negotiator Kliavkoff is. It's possible that Kliavkoff and his people are behind some of negative leaks, but a deal is already done that will make the PAC teams happy. Kliavkoff then comes off as a white knight hero who struggled, but came out victorious. This is pure speculation on my part, and not saying this is what is happening. Just saying it's one possible explanation.

I think the real problem is the two large schools, Oregon and UW, want out. But while the B1G put the PAC on life support, the B1G has decided not to pull the plug yet, and take the two PAC NW schools. But if the 4-corner schools went BIG 12, that would leave the PAC with just 6, which triggers the NCAA pulling the P5 designation, and the B1G would have no guilt in picking up the two PAC NW schools, plus maybe Stanford and CAL. Behind the scenes, I think Oregon and UW are doing everything to muck up the PAC negotiations so they can get out.

The two AZ schools may be ready to leave, but Utah and Colorado would rather stay in the PAC than go BIG 12. And I'm sure if the BIG 12 takes just the two AZ schools. We're additions, but would only bring the Phoenix market, whereas the other 4-corner schools would bring Phx, SLC, and Denver. If just the two AZ schools leave without UU and CU, Oregon and UW are still stuck in the PAC.

Seems that second paragraph makes the exact case of why we should have bolted months ago. We must control our own destiny. This thing is on life support. 3 months or 5 years but it’s done.

Go to the Big 12, take the money and the exposure and wait for streaming to dominate as you say