Oregon and Washington want no part of the BIG12. None. Why? Because they know, one way or another, bigger and better things are on their horizon. What that looks like is TBD, but it's likely one of three things, a B1G invite, a SEC invite, or an APAC. By the way, this dipshit from ACC country thinks the APAC is the ACC's best option (
https://fansided.com/2023/02/26/clemson ... -acc-deal/), as is this writer from CAL (
https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/pac-12 ... ec-big-ten). Guess there are dipshits from coast to coast?
Regardless, whatever happens, there is a chance that we get to tag along with UW and Oregon, and end up in a conference that is bigger and better than the BIG12. If that doesn't happen, then the PAC leftovers are the top targets for BIG12 expansion. Our future is more cloudy than Oregon and UW, but it either includes a better deal in a few years, or a soft landing in the BIG12. There is zero chance UW and Oregon take our BIG12 spot, and almost as small a chance that our worst case scenario isn't a BIG12 invite.
If we go BIG12 now, we cast our lot with them long term, even if the rumors are false about Yormark wanting a longer GOR to ensure PAC schools don't use and abuse the BIG12. If the 4-corners go BIG12 now, the PAC no longer becomes a P5 conference, and the B1G picks up Oregon, UW, and the Bays at a discount. The APAC has zero chance, and the SEC has no good options to expand westward. Even if it's just the two AZ schools going BIG12, really think the PAC would invite us back in five years to an APAC? Highly unlikely.
What we really should wish to avoid is going BIG12 now, only to have the future look like two majors, one with ESPN, and one with FOX, with the B1G and SEC picking the top ACC and BIG12 schools to fill out their line-ups. In this scenario, the SEC and B1G become 1A and 1B, and the leftovers, which may likely include us, all become second rate.