Conference Realignment

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AzCatFan2
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by AzCatFan2 »

I'd leave for the B1G and $60 million a year in a heartbeat. But if UCLA says no, I'd imagine there would be other PAC schools ahead of us in the +1 pecking order. Stanford, which is private, or Utah and Colorado, which doesn't have an in-state PAC partner, so BOR isn't an issue.

Pure speculation, but I wonder if the PAC is waiting to announce a media deal until the CAL BOR meets. Maybe there are two deals ready to sign. ~$35 million per school if UCLA bails, but North of $40 per school if they stay?

Would that be enough for UCLA to stay? It's still a $20 million a year difference. I don't see UCLA turning that down. And I don't see, even with UCLA, a PAC deal worth much more than $40 million per school.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

I thought UC campus presidents had sole authority over such contracts?
CardiacCats97 wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:20 pm If they can’t go, we should be doing everything in our power to be USC’s +1.
I imagine Stanford would be in the discussion for that. Besides, ABOR would not allow UA to go without ASU.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CardiacCats97 »

I’m not saying we’d be successful, but even having our name floated as a possibility moves us into the upper echelon of potential additions to other conferences.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

I agree, if other conferences hear the UA is looking to move on and up, then the thought will at least cross their mind.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Gonna feel sick if Gonzaga gets this done and we're stuck in this shit stain of a conference.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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azgreg wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:57 pm What do you think most PAC-8 fans thought of Arizona and ASSu?
https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ ... 535235002/

Sorry have been off the grid for a couple of weeks traveling...I did a little digging and found this article. It is a decent read. PAC 8 fans were split on the Arizona schools joining. From the Arizona school perspective, A$$U (well Frank Kush) was totally against the move. He felt as though the WAC was where they needed to be to maintain their upward momentum in CFB. Arizona and the regents felt otherwise though.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

Back when Wilbur still was armed.

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Haha, fuck ASU.

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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by GlobalCat »

A few thoughts:

1. There are some deeply personal things Regents members are working through right now that likely influenced a scheduling decision push back
2. If you've spent any time with key leaders in Sacramento, you know they have a very different framework for looking at universities (and college athletics) than your average sports fan. Social issues receive top attention, thus the impacts on student athletes in Olympic sports (particularly women's sports) will be influential.
3. UCLA athletics funding gap is not as bad as it was earlier this year. Under Armor settled with the school and they are now signed with Jordan Brand
4. UCLA's secretive and unilateral move to the Big 10 without Cal or UC Regents receiving at least a courtesy heads up has created ill-will. I suspect more maneuvering will take place to scold UCLA's leadership.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

UCLA subsidize Berkeley? In what world would that ever be considered or even brought up into conversation?

UC schools make their own contracts at the discretion of the campus president.

Is George doing anything, besides playing tennis with Larry Scott?
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Re: Conference Realignment

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GlobalCat wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:38 pm
2. If you've spent any time with key leaders in Sacramento, you know they have a very different framework for looking at universities (and college athletics) than your average sports fan. Social issues receive top attention, thus the impacts on student athletes in Olympic sports (particularly women's sports) will be influential.
UCLA is banking on the Big Ten for the football/basketball $$$. I don't think they put much thought for how unrealistic a Big Ten conference schedule would be for all the other sports - volleyball, gymnastics, baseball, tennis - to the point I could see athletes transfer out due to the travel alone, and likewise recruiting would take a hit once it's proven how much more travel is involved compared to staying in your own time zone. Sacramento is right on point to ask about this.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by TheCat »

Merkin wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:22 pm I thought UC campus presidents had sole authority over such contracts?
CardiacCats97 wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:20 pm If they can’t go, we should be doing everything in our power to be USC’s +1.
I imagine Stanford would be in the discussion for that. Besides, ABOR would not allow UA to go without ASU.
Merkin I believe they do but there are other purse strings are not under their control. I live in California and what I have heard is them say go ahead and leave but we are going to compensate Cal and potentially UCSD to make them whole and it will come from UCLA funds. Net gain will be lower than UCLA is thinking it will be along with increase in travel and Olympic sports damaged. Stanford and USC are both private schools so control over them is less.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Basketcats »

84Cat wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:31 am
I think he meant to say he is full of bullshit.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

Basketcats wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:58 am I think he meant to say he is full of bullshit.

He has been since Day 1. He's a talker but so far hasn't walked the walked.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

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https://twitter.com/latbbolch/status/16 ... 2263984128

Also "recommends" that UCLA pays Cal some cash so it doesnt look like the UC Regents didnt just waste everyone's time.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by RichardCranium »

So UCLA has to 'mitigate travel and student wellbeing'?

I guess they now have to play all home games in Oklahoma City and away games in Denver?

Or some such?
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by AzCatFan2 »

Here's an article from a solid media source, John Ourand, who also has a podcast. He's been more right than wrong when it comes to media deals for not just college, but all sports. https://sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journ ... media.aspx

Ourand predicts that Amazon will win Sunday Ticket. Also predicts that ESPN won't outbid what they have paid for the BIG 12 for the PAC, but Amazon will. So the PAC will go mostly with Amazon, while selling some Tier 1 games to CBS. Not sure if ESPN figures into this or not.

The positive is if Amazon does get Sunday Ticket, they will likely extend their agreement with DirctTv Business they have with TNF to be able to show Sunday Ticket in Sports Bars/Restaurants. DTV Business would also have to give Amazon the 7 channels it uses for Sunday Ticket, so DTV Business subscribers can show multiple games at once. I would imagine Amazon would use these channels for PAC-12 Network, and those games will finally be able to be seen in sports bars across the nation.

Amazon won't also be limited by the number of channels they have. Nor will they have obligations to other conferences, or other sports leagues. ESPN would have contracts, for example, with the SEC, BIG 12, and MLB, that could cause, and has caused 8:00 PM local starts because that's the slot ESPN can fill. Amazon? With only NFL only, no competition for time slots. We could ask to never have a start after 7:00 PM, and Amazon should be able to accommodate. No conflicts.

Amazon will also want to make money off its PAC investment. Have to figure that Amazon is going to promote the heck out of their PAC slate of games during NFL on Thursday night and again Sunday Ticket. Can't put a dollar figure on that amount of branding.

The negatives are obvious. It's a risk to be first to go majority streaming. It could flop, and the PAC becomes even more irrelevant than it is. And if we're not on ESPN at all, the WW leader will treat us as also-rans.

Personally, I think it's worth the risk. The extra money is important. This is money we'll be able to pay to keep coaches and assistants. And the risks, in my opinion, are mitigated, because the contract will likely only run 2025-2030. And by 2028, when the next round of negotiations start, we'll have our answer on whether or not this is sustainable, or if we need to significantly change course. Which would likely mean leave for the BIG 12.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CardiacCats97 »

If you thought we were a forgettable second-rate conference that gets ignored in the national conversation before, just wait until most of our games are streaming on a non-sports platform.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:47 pm If you thought we were a forgettable second-rate conference that gets ignored in the national conversation before, just wait until most of our games are streaming on a non-sports platform.
If Amazon also wins NFL Sunday Ticket, and broadcasts all NFL games to out-of-market areas, can you call them a non-sports platform? Amazon also allows subscribers to pay for MLB.TV, and Amazon also has exclusive rights to UEFA Champions League Soccer the next three years. It's not ESPN. But it's making heavy investments into live sports.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CardiacCats97 »

AzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:53 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:47 pm If you thought we were a forgettable second-rate conference that gets ignored in the national conversation before, just wait until most of our games are streaming on a non-sports platform.
If Amazon also wins NFL Sunday Ticket, and broadcasts all NFL games to out-of-market areas, can you call them a non-sports platform? Amazon also allows subscribers to pay for MLB.TV, and Amazon also has exclusive rights to UEFA Champions League Soccer the next three years. It's not ESPN. But it's making heavy investments into live sports.
If most people are using your service to stream shows about mythical elves & orcs and superheroes gone bad, you’re a non-sports platform.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by AzCatFan2 »

CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:57 pm
AzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:53 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:47 pm If you thought we were a forgettable second-rate conference that gets ignored in the national conversation before, just wait until most of our games are streaming on a non-sports platform.
If Amazon also wins NFL Sunday Ticket, and broadcasts all NFL games to out-of-market areas, can you call them a non-sports platform? Amazon also allows subscribers to pay for MLB.TV, and Amazon also has exclusive rights to UEFA Champions League Soccer the next three years. It's not ESPN. But it's making heavy investments into live sports.
If most people are using your service to stream shows about mythical elves & orcs and superheroes gone bad, you’re a non-sports platform.
Maybe. But you can't deny the large investment Amazon is making with broadcasting live sports events. Even without the PAC, Amazon will broadcast more live sports next year than in their history.

Amazon isn't ESPN, and that presents both risk and reward. ESPN is the worldwide leader, but also very crowded, as multiple college conferences and pro leagues fight for prime time slots. At Amazon, the PAC won't have any other college sports competition.

The streaming experiment may fail. But is also may be a boon? Who would've guessed ESPN would be the sports juggernaut it is today when they first broadcast a local slow pitch softball league final as their first live sports broadcast? Streaming with Amazon could be great for the PAC. If not, it's a short term contract which helps mitigate the risk.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

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CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:57 pm
AzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:53 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:47 pm If you thought we were a forgettable second-rate conference that gets ignored in the national conversation before, just wait until most of our games are streaming on a non-sports platform.
If Amazon also wins NFL Sunday Ticket, and broadcasts all NFL games to out-of-market areas, can you call them a non-sports platform? Amazon also allows subscribers to pay for MLB.TV, and Amazon also has exclusive rights to UEFA Champions League Soccer the next three years. It's not ESPN. But it's making heavy investments into live sports.
If most people are using your service to stream shows about mythical elves & orcs and superheroes gone bad, you’re a non-sports platform.
The Big Dance is broadcast by CBS; TBS; TNT; & truTV
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Re: Conference Realignment

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pc in NM wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:31 pm The Big Dance is broadcast by CBS; TBS; TNT; & truTV
The tourney is broadcast by CBS Sports which then uses four channels (three of which regularly broadcast games for NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA and many other sports) that people can get to just by flipping channels through their cable or satellite service.

It’s also the biggest sports property outside of the NFL Playoffs/Super Bowl, on par with the College Football Playoff. I wouldn’t call a December Thursday night Arizona vs Montana St game it’s equivalent but maybe you disagree? Either way you’re not disproving my point that Amazon is not a naturally advantageous platform for the conference.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by AzCatFan2 »

There is a first time for everything, and the times, they are a changing. 20 years ago, sports networks and conferences feared that putting the majority of their broadcast rights on Cable might be penny wise but pound foolish. That turned out to be of no concern. Now, there is fear that if we go with a streaming service, that too will be penny wise but pound foolish. And it may turn out to be, but streaming services are in a better position than cable companies were 20 years ago.

For those of us old enough to remember, ESPN dipped their toes with broadcasting "professional" sports in 1983 by showing Major Indoors Soccer League games. The first college football game broadcast live on ESPN happened in December, 1982, with the Independence Bowl. ESPN didn't start regularly broadcasting live games until the next season.

Pro sports on streaming services have already shown a successful proof of concept. Major League Soccer is on Apple+, Thursday Night Football on Amazon, Premiere League on Peacock, etc. And NFL Sunday Ticket will be on a streaming service come next year. There is good reason why big streaming services are making a play for live sports (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/tech ... ights.html). Even if the sports are loss leaders, they bring in numbers that ultimately make the decision profitable. Sunday Ticket was a loss leader for DirecTv. The money it paid the NFL was more than it made from selling commercials during the games. But for over a decade, Sunday Ticket was a reliable driver of DTV subscribers that it made sense for DTV to spend the money. DTV is now in a position that paying for a loss leader like Sunday Ticket is no longer a profitable decision. But that's not true for Apple and Amazon.

There are no guarantees, but many people thought 24 hours sports or 24 hour news networks were stupid ideas destined for the dustbin. CNN was labeled the Chicken Noodle Network by the experts, who gave it 6 months max before it went off the air. CNN launched in June, 1980.

Yes, going with Amazon is a gamble, but one that isn't as destined to fail as many people here believe. And the PAC? We're in a position to take a gamble. The B1G was gracious enough not to give us a death sentence by waiting on taking Oregon and Washington this round of expansion, but no guarantee it won't happen next round. And it's not like the PAC was thriving under our current ESPN and Fox contract. So why not gamble with Amazon? If it doesn't work, at least we'll take their money for a few years, before the conference likely dissolves and we head to the BIG 12. But if it works? Then we'll be in a better position we are in today.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by 84Cat »

Looks like YouTube is going to get Sunday night ticket. What happened to Amazon?
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Re: Conference Realignment

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84Cat wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:20 am Looks like YouTube is going to get Sunday night ticket. What happened to Amazon?
That tweet is inaccurate. Sunday Ticket is going to YouTube (that’s all games not on Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night).

Thursday night football games are still Amazon’s. Sunday night will still be NBC. And Monday will still be ESPN.

But the question is if Amazon is such a future live sports juggernaut, why weren’t they ever in the running for Sunday Ticket?
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Apple was considered the early frontrunner for Sunday Ticket. Amazon was usually running second, with Google/YouTube and ESPN+ in the running, but long shots. Apple started to fade, and it looked like Amazon was going to be the winner, but looks like Google/YouTube put in a late push and eventually signed the contract.

Will be interesting how this plays out for DirecTv Business, which sells subscriptions to sports bars and restaurants. Sunday Ticket was a huge sell for DTV Business, and 99% of sports bars are DTV subscribers, mainly because of Sunday Ticket. Amazon struck a deal with DTV Business for Thursday nights. Loos like DTV Business will have to figure something out now with Google.

As for the PAC, assuming we go with Amazon, being on the same streaming network as Sunday Ticket would have been a branding boost. Amazon still has TNF, but how many people spend hours every Sunday in sports bars watching multiple games? And it's not like these guys and gals are changing the channels during commercials.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

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CardiacCats97 wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:03 am
84Cat wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:20 am Looks like YouTube is going to get Sunday night ticket. What happened to Amazon?
That tweet is inaccurate. Sunday Ticket is going to YouTube (that’s all games not on Thursday night, Sunday night, and Monday night).

Thursday night football games are still Amazon’s. Sunday night will still be NBC. And Monday will still be ESPN.

But the question is if Amazon is such a future live sports juggernaut, why weren’t they ever in the running for Sunday Ticket?

Because they already had Thursday night :roll:
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CardiacCats97 »

So we’ll have to subscribe to see PAC-10 games separately and won’t just get to see them because we have Prime? Awful, and even worse for conference visibility unless it’s bundled with the NFL Thursday Night and select MLB games.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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CardiacCats97 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:47 am So we’ll have to subscribe to see PAC-10 games separately and won’t just get to see them because we have Prime? Awful, and even worse for conference visibility unless it’s bundled with the NFL Thursday Night and select MLB games.
And the argument about how many more Prime subscribers there are goes completely out the fucking window. Signing up with Amazon for anything that's not Tier 3 is such a terrible idea, which is why the Pac-12 is going to do it, because they don't know how to do anything outside of terrible ideas. This will be Pac-12 Network part deux, but with bigger games being on there instead. Bobby Robbins is so going to fuck over Arizona Athletics.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Not a fan of going Amazon if the games require an additional subscription and app. It does sound like the PAC12 Network debacle all over again. The casual fan who has Prime is unlikely to sign up for an additional fee, but would watch on Prime. And sports bars? Only will pay extra in market areas, but not nationally. On Prime, these sports bars already show TNF.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:41 am Not a fan of going Amazon if the games require an additional subscription and app. It does sound like the PAC12 Network debacle all over again. The casual fan who has Prime is unlikely to sign up for an additional fee, but would watch on Prime. And sports bars? Only will pay extra in market areas, but not nationally. On Prime, these sports bars already show TNF.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:46 am
AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:41 am Not a fan of going Amazon if the games require an additional subscription and app. It does sound like the PAC12 Network debacle all over again. The casual fan who has Prime is unlikely to sign up for an additional fee, but would watch on Prime. And sports bars? Only will pay extra in market areas, but not nationally. On Prime, these sports bars already show TNF.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CardiacCats97 »

ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:46 am
AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:41 am Not a fan of going Amazon if the games require an additional subscription and app. It does sound like the PAC12 Network debacle all over again. The casual fan who has Prime is unlikely to sign up for an additional fee, but would watch on Prime. And sports bars? Only will pay extra in market areas, but not nationally. On Prime, these sports bars already show TNF.
Welcome to the dark side my friend.
Our only hope is that when you subscribe to get Thursday Night Football the PAC is bundled in with it and that people are too dumb to cancel when the NFL season ends.

But even if it’s bundled this would be awful for every sport except maybe football.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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CardiacCats97 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:23 pm
ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:46 am
AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:41 am Not a fan of going Amazon if the games require an additional subscription and app. It does sound like the PAC12 Network debacle all over again. The casual fan who has Prime is unlikely to sign up for an additional fee, but would watch on Prime. And sports bars? Only will pay extra in market areas, but not nationally. On Prime, these sports bars already show TNF.
Welcome to the dark side my friend.
Our only hope is that when you subscribe to get Thursday Night Football the PAC is bundled in with it and that people are too dumb to cancel when the NFL season ends.

But even if it’s bundled this would be awful for every sport except maybe football.
I've long advocated that the only sport that could possibly work (and not great mind you) on Amazon is football. Basketball on Amazon would literally murder Arizona unless it's the Tier 3 games only.
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Re: Conference Realignment

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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by PHXCATS »

I see people are trying to read into this. I do not think it is anything besides he would be happier taking the Bears job if offered

But yeah he really fucked up college athletics
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by CatsbyAZ »

San Diego State and SMU are speculated as two preferable additions should the conference chose to return to 12 teams. San Diego State makes geographic sense, but as for SMU I don't think it's culturally worked out when conferences chase schools because of their surrounding market share. Maryland and Rutgers still don't sound at home in the Big Ten, for example.

"Pac-12 insider Jon Wilner recently identified both San Diego State and SMU as the two top candidates to replace USC and UCLA. San Diego State has always been considered to be one of the teams atop of the waiting list and now is their time to shine as Wilner explained: “I think San Diego State’s probably No. 1 because it’s a pretty good media market and also, the Pac-12 needs to have a campus in Southern California."

"...when a market like Dallas is available you have to jump. SMU is in the heart of one of the biggest recruiting hotbeds in the country and is a huge market, something that Wilner reiterated saying: “But if they do add a 12th, I think SMU might be at the top of the list,” Wilner said. “Because I think that they would like to get into Dallas for recruiting and also for the media market just to kind of expand the conference footprint."
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by azcat49 »

I would prefer UNLV to SMU. It’s the center of our big championship games. Both those schools have made strides academically.
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ChooChooCat
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by ChooChooCat »

I would prefer to nuke the Pac 12 conference from existence rather than sign up to stay for an absolutely awful television deal.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by AzCatFan2 »

SDSU does seem like the most logical choice. Keeps a S. California presence for the PAC, and SDSU has put a lot of investments into the new arena and stadium. They are ready for the jump. I also agree with UNLV over SMU. I'd rather own a growing market like Las Vegas than be a bit player in a huge market. SMU will never own the college athletics market in Dallas the way UNLV owns Vegas. I also think UNLV would be unlikely to ever jump, whereas SMU would consider the BIG 12 as a better fit should they decide to grow again. The risks of SMU just aren't worth the rewards in my opinion.
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Merkin
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by Merkin »

Did something change where PAC presidents will now accept lower tier academic schools? SDSU and UNLV have been discussed for decades.

PAC presidents have wanted elite academic schools going back to 1978 when they added Arizona. It sure wasn't for the UA sports programs.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by gouacats »

Merkin wrote: Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:08 am Did something change where PAC presidents will now accept lower tier academic schools? SDSU and UNLV have been discussed for decades.

PAC presidents have wanted elite academic schools going back to 1978 when they added Arizona. It sure wasn't for the UA sports programs.
Also, is SMU still a religious school (Southern Methodist)? Also something the PAC presidents have frowned upon.
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Re: Conference Realignment

Post by ChooChooCat »

Merkin wrote: Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:08 am Did something change where PAC presidents will now accept lower tier academic schools? SDSU and UNLV have been discussed for decades.

PAC presidents have wanted elite academic schools going back to 1978 when they added Arizona. It sure wasn't for the UA sports programs.
The Pac-12 isn't exactly operating from a position of strength on any front.

I've heard it's very likely we go to 11 schools and call it a day. SMU's academics are better than any of the other alternatives, so that gives them the edge as school 12 if they do go that route. SDSU is the priority due to SoCal, academics will not be a factor either way there.
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