KenPom's Too Early 2018 Rankings

[EVCat]

Purely based upon his algorithm...

http://kenpom.com/blog/2018-pre-season-top-ten/

[Alieberman]

Only 2?

Even computers have an east coast bias.

[scumdevils86]

assuming Trier and Rawle return...which I think could be a big if.

[threenumberones]

What are the "few other things that could happen in the coming weeks that would boost Arizona to #1"? If it's understood that a Trier return means no Bowen, what is this referring to?

[Spaceman Spiff]

What are the "few other things that could happen in the coming weeks that would boost Arizona to #1"? If it's understood that a Trier return means no Bowen, what is this referring to?

Lauri, Trier and Rawle all return. Duval and Bowen commit here. Aaron Gordon gains an extra year of eligibility.

[prh]

What are the "few other things that could happen in the coming weeks that would boost Arizona to #1"? If it's understood that a Trier return means no Bowen, what is this referring to?

I wouldn't assume that Pomeroy realizes the Bowen/Trier dynamic. I'd go with the Lauri and Duval parts of Spiff's answer

[JMarkJohns]

Several aspects impact this too early ranking:

1. Lauri has a small chance of returning. I don't see it, but apparently his family thinks 2 years is a good plan. So, that would be awesome.

2. Trier has a slightly larger chance but still small chance Overall of returning. If his play in next 1-4 games mirrors play in last 4, he'll possibly be Tourney MOP and should go. If it doesn't, he may see the value of continued defensive improvement, and a full season.

3. Rawle has a 50/50 chance of staying. I think of the three, Rawle is the lowest ranked, but with the highest upside for a return. Slim down, improve lateral agility, continue to crash the boards, defend better, lead, get better off the bounce, and he's getting drafted in 2018. But probably not in 2017.

4. Bowen could be added if Trier leaves. Adding a scoring wing with athleticism is always a positive.

5. Akot may reclassify if Bowen doesn't commit and Trier leaves. Adding slashing and defensive versatility to a team in need of both.

6. Duvall could commit and actually play. Enough said. One of the best guards to consider Arizona in a long time.

7. An impact grad transfer could be added if Trier/Bowen/Akot all aren't on the 2018 roster.

8. Not really a concern, but Ayton could not end up playing at Arizona, which would have a significant impact.

9. Ristic. Does he stay for senior year? My gut says no. I think he has options abroad and should look at them because Ayton and Chance will have majority of C minutes next year.

10. D.Smith. How good is he? Some reports are saying he's an impact wing who can shoot, defend, and handle the ball (though maybe not as a PG, save for spot duty). If he's what Kadeem was last year, maybe minus a bit of defense but plus shooting/athleticism, that's a real big addition, regardless of Trier or Bowen or Akot.

[The Goat]

Pretty sure he also means winning some games here therefore improving our 2017 rating which gets baked into his 2018 early rankings.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Several aspects impact this too early ranking:

1. Lauri has a small chance of returning. I don't see it, but apparently his family thinks 2 years is a good plan. So, that would be awesome.

2. Trier has a slightly larger chance but still small chance Overall of returning. If his play in next 1-4 games mirrors play in last 4, he'll possibly be Tourney MOP and should go. If it doesn't, he may see the value of continued defensive improvement, and a full season.

3. Rawle has a 50/50 chance of staying. I think of the three, Rawle is the lowest ranked, but with the highest upside for a return. Slim down, improve lateral agility, continue to crash the boards, defend better, lead, get better off the bounce, and he's getting drafted in 2018. But probably not in 2017.

4. Bowen could be added if Trier leaves. Adding a scoring wing with athleticism is always a positive.

5. Akot may reclassify if Bowen doesn't commit and Trier leaves. Adding slashing and defensive versatility to a team in need of both.

6. Duvall could commit and actually play. Enough said. One of the best guards to consider Arizona in a long time.

7. An impact grad transfer could be added if Trier/Bowen/Akot all aren't on the 2018 roster.

8. Not really a concern, but Ayton could not end up playing at Arizona, which would have a significant impact.

9. Ristic. Does he stay for senior year? My gut says no. I think he has options abroad and should look at them because Ayton and Chance will have majority of C minutes next year.

10. D.Smith. How good is he? Some reports are saying he's an impact wing who can shoot, defend, and handle the ball (though maybe not as a PG, save for spot duty). If he's what Kadeem was last year, maybe minus a bit of defense but plus shooting/athleticism, that's a real big addition, regardless of Trier or Bowen or Akot.

I assume this list assumes Kobi's absence from next year's roster. There are just a lot of unknowns right now and moving parts for our roster composition.

[JMarkJohns]

If Kobi returns, it would be a miracle from what I understand.

I think he was always a 1/done, and @UCLA was the platform of his campaign. With minutes decrease and the recruits coming in, the long held assumption is Kobi isn't just testing the waters; but jumping in, splashing around, and staying in until he's all pruney.

[YoDeFoe]

Worth noting: CBS has Trier all the way up to the 10th pick in their latest mock draft.

"Allonzo Trier, SG, Arizona: Slowly, the world is coming around to realize that Trier might be the best shooting guard in this draft, and even if one prefers Monk, he’s a close second."

Most other draft lists continue to exclude Trier from the first round, while including guys like Dwayne Bacon, Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen and Terrance Ferguson over him.

I believe Trier is gone no matter what the draft guys say, but I further believe that he'll end up closer to the CBS projection than the rest. His stats are better than every SG above him - including Monk.

[YoDeFoe]

Re: Kobi, where would he go? The NBA? He's D-league material currently. He's been great about "team first" while his minutes have been cut - adamant that he's all in and echo'd by Miller.

[NYCat]

Re: Kobi, where would he go? The NBA? He's D-league material currently. He's been great about "team first" while his minutes have been cut - adamant that he's all in and echo'd by Miller.

I'm hopeful he tests the waters without hiring an agent, gets a bad grade and comes back. Hopefully that doesn't affect Bowen's decision. He really seems like he's all in despite having his minutes cut.

PJCs has been injured or sick every year he has been at Arizona and thus missed significant time. So him being the sole ball handler next year is terrifying. The team has no backup ball handler next year behind PJC.

Let Kobi come back and work on his ball handling, distribution, defense, etc. Kobi plays the 1 & 2, Rawle plays 2 & 3, Bowen plays 3 & 4 in off position/small lineups.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Re: Kobi, where would he go? The NBA? He's D-league material currently. He's been great about "team first" while his minutes have been cut - adamant that he's all in and echo'd by Miller.

I'm hopeful he tests the waters without hiring an agent, gets a bad grade and comes back. Hopefully that doesn't affect Bowen's decision. He really seems like he's all in despite having his minutes cut.

PJCs has been injured or sick every year he has been at Arizona and thus missed significant time. So him being the sole ball handler next year is terrifying. The team has no backup ball handler next year behind PJC.

Let Kobi come back and work on his ball handling, distribution, defense, etc. Kobi plays the 1 & 2, Rawle plays 2 & 3, Bowen plays 3 & 4 in off position/small lineups.

There's Barcello, but I would rather he had no immediate pressue his freshman year.

[The Goat]

Kobi is not coming back. He will not be missed.

[azcat49]

So you are saying we better win it this year because that sounds like an awful lot of attrition to the roster ( am assuming LM leaves)

[JMarkJohns]

So you are saying we better win it this year because that sounds like an awful lot of attrition to the roster ( am assuming LM leaves)

The case can be argued that if Simmons, Trier and Lauri all leave, along with Kadeem graduating, that so long as one of Bowen, Duvall, Akot join, that next year's roster has more actual talent and a higher ceiling.

Yet to be seen, and it would be nice if one of Trier or Lauri return plus maybe Akot joining, but overall, next year has the talent to absorb the attrition.

[YoDeFoe]

I continue to wonder what substantiation people have for

"KOBI 1000% gone to NBA"

It simply doesn't make sense given his draft board position (non-existent), his output (about the same) and his and Miller's comments regarding Kobi's reduced minutes.

He comes back next year and he has Kadeem Allen's role as a secondary ball handler / larger PG and combo guard.

[Alieberman]

Kobi is not coming back. He will not be missed.

Not saying this isn't true... I just don't get it.

If he gets told he's a middle to late 2nd rounder (at best) ... why wouldn't he stay? Transferring doesn't make sense.. that would mean 2 more years before going pro. Going to Europe? If he goes that route, he's never getting to the NBA.

Provided Trier is gone, he would get a ton of playing time.

Unless he's just pissed at Miller for getting squeezed out of playing time and his ego is too bruised... it just doesn't make any sense.

[NYCat]

I continue to wonder what substantiation people have for

"KOBI 1000% gone to NBA"

It simply doesn't make sense given his draft board position (non-existent), his output (about the same) and his and Miller's comments regarding Kobi's reduced minutes.

He comes back next year and he has Kadeem Allen's role as a secondary ball handler / larger PG and combo guard.

People have premium and already know he's gone is my guess.

Get premium!

[UAEebs86]

Scheer said on 1290 yesterday he's gone. His inner circle thinks he will be drafted at least in the second round.