2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

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SCCats
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by SCCats »

Main Event wrote:You have no idea how many murderous thoughts went through my mind the moment he shot that 3 before it went in.
No joke. Daggers shooting into the television.

Even Sean just said if Ristic had missed that 3 they'd be having a long talk.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Merkin »

Main Event wrote:You have no idea how many murderous thoughts went through my mind the moment he shot that 3 before it went in.

Not just you.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by ChooChooCat »

This team has 1 month to figure its shit out. Blowing double digit leads at home in consecutive games when you hold the talent advantage by a considerable amount is not acceptable. I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today. We shot over 60% from the field, were 10/16 from 3, and we only win by 1?
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by PieceOfMeat »

ChooChooCat wrote:This team has 1 month to figure its shit out. Blowing double digit leads at home in consecutive games when you hold the talent advantage by a considerable amount is not acceptable. I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today. We shot over 60% from the field, were 10/16 from 3, and we only win by 1?
you can't say "I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today" and then wonder how we win only by 1.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:

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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by ChooChooCat »

PieceOfMeat wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:This team has 1 month to figure its shit out. Blowing double digit leads at home in consecutive games when you hold the talent advantage by a considerable amount is not acceptable. I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today. We shot over 60% from the field, were 10/16 from 3, and we only win by 1?
you can't say "I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today" and then wonder how we win only by 1.
We had the edge at the line against Colorado by a considerable amount and it was the same story sans the final point margin. Every single game it's the same thing. Build a considerable double digit lead early in the game, lose that lead in one fell swoop, likely fall behind a possession or two, come back, and then it's a barn burner for the rest of the game. These were two home games against two non-tourney teams. Utah is 66th on Kenpom and Colorado is 111th ffs.

I know the pump sunshine into our asses club is going to say yeah, but we win these games. Good, great, grand. We haven't played a NCAA tourney team since 9 games ago and that team has been exposed for being what they really are and may limp into the tourney at best due to early season wins. So it's been the same story against marginal competition over and over and over again, which includes 2 home games in a row with almost identical scripts.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by TatetheGreat »

We outplayed Utah and barely won because of the refs. We came out on fire and had some lapses but basically dominated this game. The refs halted our momentum and honestly looked like they came in with an agenda. The tape needs to be reviewed and this crew needs to face consequences.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by SCCats »

TatetheGreat wrote:We outplayed Utah and barely won because of the refs. We came out on fire and had some lapses but basically dominated this game. The refs halted our momentum and honestly looked like they came in with an agenda. The tape needs to be reviewed and this crew needs to face consequences.
Consequences...like a raise?

Perhaps a trip to Cancun?
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by RondaeShimmy »

Main Event wrote:You have no idea how many murderous thoughts went through my mind the moment he shot that 3 before it went in.
Pretty much Miller's exact reaction
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by BBQ wildcat »

Sorry, choochoo, but the ONLY reason the game was so close was the refs. Period. End of discussion. They took PJC out of the game with those bogus fouls. They took Trier out of the game with those bogus fouls. They took Ristic out of the game as well. But today, Ristic got PISSED and really took over the game at the end.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Merkin »

Loved Miller's reaction on the last 3.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by BBQ wildcat »

Did he really want Trier to dribble around, then throw up something, while leaning into the defender, hoping to draw a foul? He never gets that call, and certainly would not have today.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by dovecanyoncat »

BBQ wildcat wrote:Did he really want Trier to dribble around, then throw up something, while leaning into the defender, hoping to draw a foul? He never gets that call, and certainly would not have today.
Dunno, but with 17 seconds left in the possession and Ayton fronted out of the roll with no one cutting or moving he probably wanted a reset, rescreen and post entry attempt.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by rgdeuce »

EOCT wrote:Today. !

Akot: You're a fucking GLOVE, man!
Dude is killing it on that end.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by PieceOfMeat »

ChooChooCat wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:This team has 1 month to figure its shit out. Blowing double digit leads at home in consecutive games when you hold the talent advantage by a considerable amount is not acceptable. I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today. We shot over 60% from the field, were 10/16 from 3, and we only win by 1?
you can't say "I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today" and then wonder how we win only by 1.
We had the edge at the line against Colorado by a considerable amount and it was the same story sans the final point margin. Every single game it's the same thing. Build a considerable double digit lead early in the game, lose that lead in one fell swoop, likely fall behind a possession or two, come back, and then it's a barn burner for the rest of the game. These were two home games against two non-tourney teams. Utah is 66th on Kenpom and Colorado is 111th ffs.

I know the pump sunshine into our asses club is going to say yeah, but we win these games. Good, great, grand. We haven't played a NCAA tourney team since 9 games ago and that team has been exposed for being what they really are and may limp into the tourney at best due to early season wins. So it's been the same story against marginal competition over and over and over again, which includes 2 home games in a row with almost identical scripts.
You're letting your frustration with a pattern you're seeing affect your perception of this one individual game.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:

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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by EOCT »

Colorado and Utah:

...No Adkins.

...Smith, Randolph, Akot got plenty of burn. Fifty three and 51 mins against Utah and Colorado, respectively. Would it be objective to process two things; one, if our starters had those minutes, would we have seen comfortable wins? Second, if we see value in burning in these players somewhat over these two games, will our gain impact the balance of our season?

...Tight wins by a young team add to growth. Young teams do grow.

We have areas to improve---D and consistent intensity on both sides of the ball.

I feel Coach has given us several stunning leadership moves recently. First, his crisp, truthful confrontation of our team following a recent loss. Second, investing substantial minutes over the last two two games in Smith, Randolph and Akot. And last, I gotta say stunning again---his brave use of Akot on the last play which we all knew was going to roll----the ball going to a strong player on an inbound pass next to the basket. I measured Em vs the player getting the ball----a full 1/16 of an inch. Yeah, Dude is a Glove.

Last thought. Is it illegal to say BEAR DOWN!!
Last edited by EOCT on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by DiehardDave37 »

SCCats wrote:
TatetheGreat wrote:We outplayed Utah and barely won because of the refs. We came out on fire and had some lapses but basically dominated this game. The refs halted our momentum and honestly looked like they came in with an agenda. The tape needs to be reviewed and this crew needs to face consequences.
Consequences...like a raise?

Perhaps a trip to Cancun?
That is exactly what I was thinking. They ALMOST earned themselves a vacation in Cancun.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Olsondogg »

ChooChooCat wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:This team has 1 month to figure its shit out. Blowing double digit leads at home in consecutive games when you hold the talent advantage by a considerable amount is not acceptable. I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today. We shot over 60% from the field, were 10/16 from 3, and we only win by 1?
you can't say "I don't give a rat's ass about how bad the refs were today" and then wonder how we win only by 1.
We had the edge at the line against Colorado by a considerable amount and it was the same story sans the final point margin. Every single game it's the same thing. Build a considerable double digit lead early in the game, lose that lead in one fell swoop, likely fall behind a possession or two, come back, and then it's a barn burner for the rest of the game. These were two home games against two non-tourney teams. Utah is 66th on Kenpom and Colorado is 111th ffs.

I know the pump sunshine into our asses club is going to say yeah, but we win these games. Good, great, grand. We haven't played a NCAA tourney team since 9 games ago and that team has been exposed for being what they really are and may limp into the tourney at best due to early season wins. So it's been the same story against marginal competition over and over and over again, which includes 2 home games in a row with almost identical scripts.
You whine as if 20 point wins make you feel any better. Immediately after a game the Eeyore crew run to Kenpom see what happenend and look to the sky for lightning about to strike us dead in March. It’s fucking pathetic. Throw our anything you just saw be it bad officiating or a star player sitting out and LOOK AT THE STATS. ARIZONA IS DOOMED.

STFU already.

There is one team that has played better since November. Purdue. That’s it. Next best record is Arizona.

We literally don’t know how good we have it.

Unreal.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by SteveKerrsStroke »

Appreciating tight wins and the lead in a (weak) conference and being massively concerned about our outlook against good OOC teams in March doesn't have to be binary
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by scumdevils86 »

Or you could look at how many final 4s we've had since I was 15 years old (I'll be 32 by March) and be rightfully concerned that we won't get there again...
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by zonagrad »

scumdevils86 wrote:Or you could look at how many final 4s we've had since I was 15 years old (I'll be 32 by March) and be rightfully concerned that we won't get there again...
Try to enjoy the ride. We're 18-4 and 8-1. Few teams have it so good. Yes, we have flaws. But so do so many other teams.

Would you rather be Kansas, on its way to another Big 12 title but knowing that those same flaws that were exposed by ASU & UW could easily show up again in the first week of the tournament?

Or Kentucky? A team that looks foreboding one game and schizophrenic the next?

Or Duke, which is relying on a shorter bench than Arizona and still can't guard? And has a douche bag like Grayson Allen?

The point is, enjoy the season. Enjoy Dusan Ristic and his incredible transformation. Enjoy Ayton. And Trier. Enjoy competing for another Pac 12 title. Don't take that for granted because it's hard to win a conference title. Just look at ASU.

There are no guarantees in March. Out of Villanova, Purdue and Virginia I'd bet only one of them gets to San Antonio. Upsets happen. Bad officiating happens. Poor shooting nights happen. Career nights by an opponent happen. Be thankful that Arizona is once again in the conversation and we have one of the best players in the country. And when we're healthy, we're fully capable of beating anyone.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by scumdevils86 »

How many final 4s and championships have Kansas, Duke and Kentucky had since 2002...
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Puerco »

Oh hey look. ODogg took a short break from his Twitter rants to come tell us we’re bad fans. What a surprise.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Olsondogg »

Puerco wrote:Oh hey look. ODogg took a short break from his Twitter rants to come tell us we’re bad fans. What a surprise.
No, not bad. Stupid and spoiled.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by ChooChooCat »

Olsondogg wrote:
Puerco wrote:Oh hey look. ODogg took a short break from his Twitter rants to come tell us we’re bad fans. What a surprise.
No, not bad. Stupid and spoiled.
High expectations going into the season set the table for how fans react. That along with the fact that Arizona is going to suffer down years for an unforeseen amount of time, so this literally is seen as a last chance season for many and quite frankly rightfully so as the future is as foggy as a San Diego morning. People including myself will naturally be more supercritical of what they see, especially when it's a pattern that has ensued over the past 9 games whether the refs have been an issue or not.

Get over yourself, you're not some all knowing spirit guide. You're just a dude who a year ago would say it's lunacy for any Sean Miller coached team have even a sub 50 AdjD on Kenpom and now anyone who views Kenpom's metrics as valuable is a schmuck. Sure buddy, whatever you say goes I guess. Btw yes a 20 point win over an inferior foe (the entire conference is all vastly inferior) would be a welcomed sight since it hasn't happened once at this midway point of conference play outside of Cal, which at this point would barely constitute as a functional Division III program.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by NYCat »

The high expectations were ridiculous. Arizona has one for sure NBA player who will be top 3 pick, a mid 2nd rounder and a guy who will be lucky to be drafted. It was ridiculous when people kept saying this was Miller's most talented team, it just isn't.

The Gordon/Stanley teams had more talent by far. They included two 1st round NBA talent each year, one of which were lottery picks each year - which was matched by Wisconsin of having two 1st round NBA talent in the same team. And of course TJ proved he could play in the league.

When the top NBA talent dropped off so did the teams. I know Miller gets top recruiting classes, but he's getting guys that are raw and development guys like Justin Simon (even Gordon's offensive game was raw), he also isn't recruiting on a Kentucky or Duke level besides getting Ayton.

This is all leading me to say that with this talent and roster composition, this team is a Sweet 16 caliber team just like year. I know they lost to a Xavier team they should've beaten but last years team wasn't very good either. The analytics showed that, this below from last year before the 2nd UCLA game and before the tournament run.
NYCat wrote:
Oregon:
Kenpom: #14 • Sargarin: #12 • BPI: #13 | RPI: #6 • Predictive rankings: #13 (18.3)

UCLA:
Kenpom: #18 • Sargarin #15 • BPi: #12 • RPI: #18 • Predictive rankings: #12 (18.6)

Arizona:
Kenpom #21 • Sargarin: #20 • BPI: #22 • RPi: #10 • Predictive rankings: #21 (15.6)

As you can see the stats showed they weren't a top tier team, they were ranked #4 that week with Oregon and UCLA a spot or a couple spots behind in the AP Poll. Arizona was always in the low 20s despite being top 4-8 AP team the whole year. The analytics wasn't buying Arizona, being behind even UCLA with a far worse defense on Kenpom. Last year was going to be a #4 seed before they got hot and won the tournament by beating UCLA/Oregon - the end result was on par with what that Arizona team was.

Basically what I was saying last year too was that team was destined for an early exit, either losing a 4/5 matchup or losing to the #1 seed in the S16 game, the only disappointing thing was that Arizona got a really favorable draw and teams were losing in front of them.

This year's ratings so far, they're slightly better
  • * Kenpom: 27
    * Sargarin: 14
    * BPI: 21
    * RPI: 14
I know it's weird to say that a team isn't very good despite being top ranked and winning games and winning the conference, but yeah team isn't very good again. This is unlike the 2014 & 2015 teams that were highly ranked in the media poll and in analytical rankings. My guess is Arizona is beating on what has been the worst major conference besides the AAC and the stats doesn't think it's impressive. We're like a really good mid major team at this point.

Think we're going in the same direction as last year, almost exactly the same except Oregon/UCLA aren't there. The team will win the conference, might win the tournament, get a top seed and lose because they actually weren't top seed quality and it'll be looked as a disappointment because the team overachieved during the regular season the sum of it's parts.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by ChooChooCat »

NYCat wrote:
I know it's weird to say that a team isn't very good despite being top ranked and winning games and winning the conference, but yeah team isn't very good again. This is unlike the 2014 & 2015 teams that were highly ranked in the media poll and in analytical rankings. My guess is Arizona is beating on what has been the worst major conference besides the AAC and the stats doesn't think it's impressive. We're like a really good mid major team at this point.

Think we're going in the same direction as last year, almost exactly the same except Oregon/UCLA aren't there.
Excellent post all around NYCat, except "beating on" the Pac-12 is certainly subjective based on how we are actually winning these games.

I know your argument for talent is in regards to how many NBA players we have on roster and that's fair, but having experienced talent I.E. Trier, Rawle, and even Ristic/PJC plus adding an all time talent Ayton and other highly rated players (Akot/Randolph) is typically a recipe for success. Villanova two years ago for instance was really what our roster make up from the outside looked like going into the season, except they certainly didn't have an all time talent on roster and had even less NBA players (Hart being the only one on roster). The returning experienced talent mixed in with the incoming talent is what provided the preseason expectations and you would figure/hope the metrics would improve with another year of experience and adding talent, but alas here we are. I know I'm rambling, but I'm just making the point for those who had very high aspirations going into this season. We had all the ingredients set, but for they just didn't mix correctly.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by NYCat »

It's sort of weird but we're like Self's Kansas' teams, especially a year like this one. This year's Kansas' team is bad who all they do is shoot 3s. Yet they're going to win the big 12 ... again, one of the toughest conference the last several years they just keep winning with meh teams. They're going to get a top seed because of it and lose and it'll be called a choke, despite the team being dreadful and somehow managed to win the conference again.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by zonagrad »

scumdevils86 wrote:How many final 4s and championships have Kansas, Duke and Kentucky had since 2002...
Comparison is the thief of joy. Of course everyone would like a final four. We've had some extraordinary bad luck. We were Final Four quality two years in a row. Grant Jerrett's early departure, Ashley's foot injury and a horrific offensive foul call derailed a sure fire Final Four team and possible National Title winner. A year later, it took a 10-12 second half 3 Pt. FT performance.

I'm impressed that despite early departures (all but Gordon, Rondae & Markannen were justified) that Miller has Arizona in the conversation. Arizona fans take this stuff for granted. Dana Altman's comments a few weeks back explains how the rest of the conference views Arizona. He said everyone is chasing our program and has been since he joined the Pac. That's despite Oregon having two incredible seasons. They've taken a giant step back and will likely miss the tourney. That doesn't happen at Arizona. Even in our roughest years (2016) we still overachieve.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Beachcat97 »

zonagrad wrote:I'm impressed that despite early departures (all but Gordon, Rondae & Markannen were justified) that Miller has Arizona in the conversation. Arizona fans take this stuff for granted. Dana Altman's comments a few weeks back explains how the rest of the conference views Arizona. He said everyone is chasing our program and has been since he joined the Pac. That's despite Oregon having two incredible seasons. They've taken a giant step back and will likely miss the tourney. That doesn't happen at Arizona. Even in our roughest years (2016) we still overachieve.
Great post, zg. I don't take for granted where Miller has us, and where he's kept us. 4 Pac titles in his first 8 seasons, and he's on pace for number 5. That's Olsonesque.

I think the frustration in having not gotten to the FF in so long has to do, in part, with the fact that virtually every other program who sees itself as elite has gotten to multiple FFs since our last one. FFs are not the only measure of a program's status, but they do matter. Would I trade places with a Butler fan (back to back FFs within the last decade)? Hell no. But I do think that Miller's legacy at AZ will be based in no small measure on whether he got us to a FF. If he wins 4 more Pac titles with no FFs and then bolts for UNC, I'm not sure whether he'll be remembered as a guy who sustained what Lute built (which is no small task) or a guy who built upon it.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by CalStateTempe »

Unc is cold cold cold on Miller three days.

Still,,,fuck em.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by PHXCATS »

Some quick thoughts.

With the way Miller has recruited and the performance of the team the last several years, it is very reasonable that final fours are the new goal and not meeting that goals is frustrating and disappointing. I have asked this before but how many regular season and conference tournaments have Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas and North Carolina won? I dont think anyone knows off the top of their head. But we know how many NCAA titles and finals fours those programs have. Miller has put U of A with his performance and recruiting to the level at or just below those schools so the goals should be the same. I am done with regular season titles. They are nice for schools that dont have the history, resources and pedigree of Arizona Basketball.

Yesterday was probably the worst officiated game I have ever seen in person and one of the worst if not the worst I have ever seen period. That said, officiating was not the only reason that Arizona gain blew double digit leads. It might be okay for a weak PAC-12 this year but that wont cut it come March.

As for people who want to compare UA to other teams that make final fours but miss the tournament other years, I would trade our regular season records for the final fours in a second. I dont care what UCONN is doing right now, I would trade everything for what they have had since 1998.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by btfd16 »

Anyone with insider that can provide info on "why Arizona is vulnerable"? Thought I had it and it expired last month.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

btfd16 wrote:Anyone with insider that can provide info on "why Arizona is vulnerable"? Thought I had it and it expired last month.
Not an insider, but I assume defense is heavily featured, as is lack of reliable depth.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by YoDeFoe »

Giant Killers why Oklahoma, Sooners, Arizona Wildcats are vulnerable
by John Gasaway on (original: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... vulnerable" target="_blank)

Maybe the NCAA men's basketball committee is getting smarter, or perhaps my colleague Joe Lunardi is giving them a bit too much credit in advance. Either way, this business of picking out vulnerable "Giants" under the Giant Killers model has traditionally been more straightforward.

Not this year. Based on the 16 teams that Joe is projecting for the top four seed lines, it would be said that the committee had done, on the whole, a good job seeding the top of the bracket. There wouldn't seem to be many opportunities for Giants to be upset by "Killers" seeded at least five lines below them.

There are, however, two prominent exceptions to this rule.

Oklahoma Sooners

Joe projects the Sooners as a No. 3 seed, and based on how well Lon Kruger's men play offense and defense from possession to possession, this would make them ripe for a Giant Killers upset. Maybe that would come to pass in a second-round game against a No. 11 seed that previously defeated the opponent on the No. 6 line. Potentially, though this would be more of a stretch, it could even occur in the first round against a No. 14 seed.

If Oklahoma ends up being seeded above its punching weight, that must be a Trae Young thing, right? Maybe people, including committee members, are so dazzled by what the freshman brings to the table that they can't help overrating the Sooners. Meaning if you're not dazzled by a 44-point effort on 20 shots in a 98-96 win over Baylor, I'm not quite sure what will do that trick for you.

Anyway, "We were all blinded by Young" will be the story told if OU makes a quick exit, but I'm not so sure it's the correct narrative. Kruger's team is, after all, 16-5 and 6-3 in the Big 12. That's very similar to what we see from West Virginia (16-5, 5-3), and the hard-working analysts here at Giant Killers HQ have zero problem with the Mountaineers' being on track for a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.

No, what appears to have occurred is simply that Oklahoma has overachieved. Even with Young in full sensation mode, this offense is still merely "very good" and not "great" in terms of what nine other teams have been able to record thus far in Big 12 play. Put another way, if the Sooners had an offense as good as TCU's, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

A comparison with OU's 2015-16 Final Four team led by Buddy Hield suggests that this season's Sooners lack an identity beyond being the team for which Trae Young plays. Two years ago, Oklahoma had one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big 12 while being far and away the most-perimeter oriented offense in the league. That was a really effective combination.

This season, conversely, OU is again making a high percentage of its 3s. But relative to the Big 12, Kruger's team isn't attempting nearly as many 3s as it did a couple seasons ago. This, to say the least, is a curious turn of events for a team making just 48 percent of its 2s in conference play.

Here, finally, we might be looking at something of a "Trae Young effect." The Sooners are easily the fastest-paced team in the Big 12, and to be sure, Young's pushing the ball up the floor has resulted in him making a good many trips to the line. That might be Oklahoma's most significant point of difference with respect to its conference opponents (this defense carries the league's lowest foul rate), but for a Giant, it's a less reliable stylistic trail to blaze.

If Kruger can find a way to bring together "Young shooting lots of free throws" with "the team shooting even more 3s," that could be a trajectory-changing development. Until then, OU rates out as a vulnerable Giant.

Arizona Wildcats

As one who rated Arizona No. 1 in the preseason, I didn't expect to be tagging the Wildcats as a vulnerable anything before we got to February. What happened?

This is the most suspect defense we've seen in Tucson in a good many years. Sean Miller's group has been good enough on that side of the ball in Pac-12 play, but good enough isn't customarily how we describe the defense of an Arizona team on track for a No. 3 seed.

Moreover, the Wildcats' good enough defense falls in line with what has been a five-season year-to-year slide on that side of the ball in Pac-12 play, one that tracks what we've seen in full-season adjusted defensive efficiencies as well. It has been a slow-motion development, relatively speaking, but now, after five years of movement in one direction, the impacts are becoming visible.

True, Miller's guys really know how to chase opponents off the 3-point line. No defense has held Pac-12 opponents to a lower rate of attempts from beyond the arc, and that has played to this defense's strengths. Arizona is pretty fair at forcing misses on 2-point attempts, ranking No. 3 to this point in Pac-12 play.

Still, the bottom-line results aren't there the way they usually are in Tucson. Allowing conference opponents 1.04 points per possession when an average Pac-12 defense allows 1.06 is not the traditional Arizona way.

Certainly, in the preseason, it would have been difficult to envision "defense that's just pretty good" nestling so comfortably alongside "a starting lineup that includes 7-foot-1 Deandre Ayton and 7-foot Dusan Ristic." Yet it's true that, as recently as 2015, Miller achieved much more impressive results in both interior D and defensive rebounding with rotations that were, on average, a hair shorter than the current one.

In sum, laptops look at Arizona and see a team with a dangerous offense but unspectacular defense. Maybe Ayton, who, to be clear, is already outstanding, can make the laptops look silly by taking his play to another level entirely in the season's remaining 60-odd days. Certainly, he appears eminently capable of doing so. It could happen, but it needs to start soon.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by YoDeFoe »

Use this in the future to get Insider for free:

http://insider2text.xyz/" target="_blank
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by YoDeFoe »

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
btfd16 wrote:Anyone with insider that can provide info on "why Arizona is vulnerable"? Thought I had it and it expired last month.
Not an insider, but I assume defense is heavily featured, as is lack of reliable depth.
Yeah: no surprise, it's the defense. The lack of trustworthy depth as well as the corresponding inconsistent rotations should have been highlighted as well.

The "this is a multi-year trend coming to a head!" take is really strange and not supported by the data, however.

37, 33, 1, 3, 29, 29, 97

See the trend??? Yeah me either. Looks to me like we had an absurdly good couple years of defense (hello TJ, NJ, RHJ, AG, KT...) four "normal" good years, and this very bad year.

This year isn't part of a trend - it's just the players we returned were our worst defenders, besides Rawle who has missed 60% of the season, and the players we've brought in aren't defensive phenoms like AG or RHJ and aren't being protected by exceptional upperclassmen. We've talked about this to no end and we're just a bunch of amateurs. Disappointing to see a pro journalist be lazy in their analysis (though unsurprising).
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by YoDeFoe »

Noticed he said "conference defense" where I cite total season defense. Looking at conference only... it's the same story. Below are AdjD numbers (lower is better, anything below 100 is good):

95, 98, 91, 87, 101, 100, 104

No trend. Just "usually pretty good, two years of greatness, oddly bad this year."

Given that proper analysis you get to "why is this year different" which brings you to the above "it's the players, stupid."
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

YoDeFoe wrote:Noticed he said "conference defense" where I cite total season defense. Looking at conference only... it's the same story. Below are AdjD numbers (lower is better, anything below 100 is good):

95, 98, 91, 87, 101, 100, 104

No trend. Just "usually pretty good, two years of greatness, oddly bad this year."

Given that proper analysis you get to "why is this year different" which brings you to the above "it's the players, stupid."
A lot comes down to personnel. You can run any defense in the known universe and look like a genius when you have guys like TJ, NJ, RHJ, SJ and AG running around. FWIW, I've always thought one issue was that Ray Smith and Justin Simon were our two replacements for the spidery wing that Miller has used so effectively. Those two and Terrance Ferguson were our three best defensive potential level recruits since 14-15 until you get to Ayton's freakish potential.

The reverse is true. There isn't a defensive scheme that can completely camouflage issues like Dusan/Ayton together and PJC's lack of size. Look at the physical abilities on our roster and tell me who has big time defensive potential. I'd say Ayton, Randolph and Akot. Randolph has struggled learning, Akot has struggled with the knees. The rest of the team just doesn't have a lot of defensively gifted dudes. Maybe Rawle?
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Harvey Specter »

PHXCATS wrote:Some quick thoughts.

With the way Miller has recruited and the performance of the team the last several years, it is very reasonable that final fours are the new goal and not meeting that goals is frustrating and disappointing. I have asked this before but how many regular season and conference tournaments have Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas and North Carolina won? I dont think anyone knows off the top of their head. But we know how many NCAA titles and finals fours those programs have. Miller has put U of A with his performance and recruiting to the level at or just below those schools so the goals should be the same. I am done with regular season titles. They are nice for schools that dont have the history, resources and pedigree of Arizona Basketball.

Yesterday was probably the worst officiated game I have ever seen in person and one of the worst if not the worst I have ever seen period. That said, officiating was not the only reason that Arizona gain blew double digit leads. It might be okay for a weak PAC-12 this year but that wont cut it come March.

As for people who want to compare UA to other teams that make final fours but miss the tournament other years, I would trade our regular season records for the final fours in a second. I dont care what UCONN is doing right now, I would trade everything for what they have had since 1998.
Wow... you are quite a student of College Hoops.

I do not know anyone who knows off the top of their head UK, Mich St, Duke, KU, and UNC have.

You trumped me. :lol:
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Bangkok Wildcat »

PHXCATS wrote:Some quick thoughts.

With the way Miller has recruited and the performance of the team the last several years, it is very reasonable that final fours are the new goal and not meeting that goals is frustrating and disappointing. I have asked this before but how many regular season and conference tournaments have Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas and North Carolina won? I dont think anyone knows off the top of their head. But we know how many NCAA titles and finals fours those programs have. Miller has put U of A with his performance and recruiting to the level at or just below those schools so the goals should be the same. I am done with regular season titles. They are nice for schools that dont have the history, resources and pedigree of Arizona Basketball.

Yesterday was probably the worst officiated game I have ever seen in person and one of the worst if not the worst I have ever seen period. That said, officiating was not the only reason that Arizona gain blew double digit leads. It might be okay for a weak PAC-12 this year but that wont cut it come March.

As for people who want to compare UA to other teams that make final fours but miss the tournament other years, I would trade our regular season records for the final fours in a second. I dont care what UCONN is doing right now, I would trade everything for what they have had since 1998.
I totally get the frustration of not having any FFs or more by CSM at this point. We were robbed by the horrendous offensive foul vs. Wiscy that should have been the first for CSM. However, barring the Wichita State 1sr round flameout, it’s nice to not have had to worry about these under CSM vs the Lute era. IMHO too much emphasis is placed on the NCAAs, but again, i badly want success there too.

Having said that, I enjoy each and every game I can find to watch and love the Year long battle for victories, prominence, and national recognition too. I absolutely want to win, and dominate, the P12 and win the P12 Tourney every year too!

But UCONN having 2 NCs and 1 FF since CSM has been here is very attractive for sure.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

Bangkok Wildcat wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:Some quick thoughts.

With the way Miller has recruited and the performance of the team the last several years, it is very reasonable that final fours are the new goal and not meeting that goals is frustrating and disappointing. I have asked this before but how many regular season and conference tournaments have Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke, Kansas and North Carolina won? I dont think anyone knows off the top of their head. But we know how many NCAA titles and finals fours those programs have. Miller has put U of A with his performance and recruiting to the level at or just below those schools so the goals should be the same. I am done with regular season titles. They are nice for schools that dont have the history, resources and pedigree of Arizona Basketball.

Yesterday was probably the worst officiated game I have ever seen in person and one of the worst if not the worst I have ever seen period. That said, officiating was not the only reason that Arizona gain blew double digit leads. It might be okay for a weak PAC-12 this year but that wont cut it come March.

As for people who want to compare UA to other teams that make final fours but miss the tournament other years, I would trade our regular season records for the final fours in a second. I dont care what UCONN is doing right now, I would trade everything for what they have had since 1998.
I totally get the frustration of not having any FFs or more by CSM at this point. We were robbed by the horrendous offensive foul vs. Wiscy that should have been the first for CSM. However, barring the Wichita State 1sr round flameout, it’s nice to not have had to worry about these under CSM vs the Lute era. IMHO too much emphasis is placed on the NCAAs, but again, i badly want success there too.

Having said that, I enjoy each and every game I can find to watch and love the Year long battle for victories, prominence, and national recognition too. I absolutely want to win, and dominate, the P12 and win the P12 Tourney every year too!

But UCONN having 2 NCs and 1 FF since CSM has been here is very attractive for sure.
Any time I want to be Uconn, I watch one of their games for 15 minutes. Then I realize they suck ass and our program is much healthier and that you can't actually trade places in real life. If we tried to be Uconn, we might just get the sucky part.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by PHXCATS »

4 titles since 1999

Enough said
2018 Bear Down Wildcats Conference Championship Challenge Champion
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

PHXCATS wrote:4 titles since 1999

Enough said
We can't get UConn's impressive past. We can get UConn's desultory future.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

Some thoughts on WSU.

They're bad, and we did what you need to do vs a bad team. We took all hope from them by midway though the first half, then just beat them down. Not letting an inferior opponent hang around is exactly what needs to happen and we made it happen. We didn't have to tire out anyone.

Our defense was much better than the final numbers showed. Most of the second half was garbage time. We were up 75-42 with 11:30 to go and gave up 30 points in the last 11:30. The downside of a blowout is the skew in stats like that. Those last 30 hurt our total defensive numbers, but they were irrelevant to the game.

It was nice that more shots went down for Randolph. He had a horrible slump but is showing signs of shaking it. That's big because he has the most bench potential.

For a blowout, PJC, Lee and Smith had pretty bleh stat lines. All in all, good send off to UW
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Longhorned »

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
For a blowout, PJC, Lee and Smith had pretty bleh stat lines. All in all, good send off to UW
Can Ira Lee even play basketball?

I realize he was scouted as a 4-star talent, and I've seen him do a couple of things with the ball in transition that I enjoyed seeing (though I see such things from in local pickup games, too). But even for freshman-level expectations, it's a matter of faith in what others claim to have seen. I'd trade him in an instant for a freshman Fendi Onobun, and that dude was more like a water buffalo than a basketball player.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by TheBlackLodge »

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Our defense was much better than the final numbers showed. Most of the second half was garbage time. We were up 75-42 with 11:30 to go and gave up 30 points in the last 11:30
To your point, when the score was 75-42 the game was at 48 possessions. Our raw Offenseive Efficiency was 1.57 PPP and the Defensive Efficiency was .88 PPP. Those are the kind of stats you want to see versus a basement dweller like Wazzu.

Another important number last night: 29 minutes, which was the most played any starter (Trier).
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by ChooChooCat »

Longhorned wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
For a blowout, PJC, Lee and Smith had pretty bleh stat lines. All in all, good send off to UW
Can Ira Lee even play basketball?

I realize he was scouted as a 4-star talent, and I've seen him do a couple of things with the ball in transition that I enjoyed seeing (though I see such things from in local pickup games, too). But even for freshman-level expectations, it's a matter of faith in what others claim to have seen. I'd trade him in an instant for a freshman Fendi Onobun, and that dude was more like a water buffalo than a basketball player.
Could Fendi Onobun ever play basketball?
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

Longhorned wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
For a blowout, PJC, Lee and Smith had pretty bleh stat lines. All in all, good send off to UW
Can Ira Lee even play basketball?

I realize he was scouted as a 4-star talent, and I've seen him do a couple of things with the ball in transition that I enjoyed seeing (though I see such things from in local pickup games, too). But even for freshman-level expectations, it's a matter of faith in what others claim to have seen. I'd trade him in an instant for a freshman Fendi Onobun, and that dude was more like a water buffalo than a basketball player.
Having seen Lee play in HS (on tape) he has potential. He seems to be trying to play at 100 mph all the time and it's hurting his ability. He made J's, FT's and finished in HS.

This year, he looks like he's playing every game on enough meth and Red Bull to melt his face. All energy and action, no rhythm and control. I feel bad for him because it comes from a good place. He obviously cares and really tries. He just isn't blending it with court sense and flow.
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by SunnyAZ »

ChooChooCat wrote: Could Fendi Onobun ever play basketball?
not sure but he did get drafted into the NFL
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Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

Post by EVCat »

scumdevils86 wrote:How many final 4s and championships have Kansas, Duke and Kentucky had since 2002...
How many have Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Georgetown, UCLA and....fuck, Florida? Had since this staff was assembled?

How many Final Fours has Kentucky won this week?

I know this staff came in to a dumpster fire and got to the 4th game in the tournament 3 times in 5 years. But the Final Four...that marketing strategy.

What the hell is a Final Four without a title? A loss in the 5th or 6th game.

This obsession with that one more game, at the exclusion of all the times we lost in the first game in the "glory years" is head spinning. No one said we were Duke. Or Kentucky. But we are in the ballgame with everyone else.
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