Unlucky

[Chicat]

Plenty of bad plays and mental lapses contributed to this loss, but there was a ton of bad luck too. Two banked in threes? Two blocks that end up right back in their hands, including the one that lead to the game-winning shot?

Sometimes, it’s just not your night...

[whatisee]

Yep. That sucked

[Longhorned]

It was a lot of things, but you can't deny it was unlucky. I'm putting that at the top of the list.

[cats101]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

[Longhorned]

I'm convinced that some of you know nothing about college basketball. You just post here.

[zonagrad]

I'm convinced that some of you know nothing about college basketball. You just post here.

Yes. Absolutely yes.

[FreeSpiritCat]

What I saw tonight was a team that matured quite a bit in the second half. They were running a much better offense, and the defense was much better. Like Monty said the game was played at a high level at the end of the game. This is the first time I really saw the fight in the Cats. They need to play with that energy and smart play on offense more often.

[zonagrad]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Riiiiiigggghhhhht. First place and top ten without a key player for much of the season. Just lost to a really good team, on the road, by a prayer. See Longhorned's post about basketball knowledge and take it to heart.

[Merkin]

You make your own luck. You fight for loose balls, and win them, then luck seems to follow you. Cats lost almost every loose ball situation.

[Longhorned]

By the way, with all of the over-the-top luck of Washington, it's only fair to point out the single and only lucky moment of Arizona the entire game: When Crisp was late getting to his spot, the ref under the basket didn't make a signature PAC-12 offensive foul call on Rawle on his only made basket of the night. By the standards of tonight's game, that was lucky.

[FreeSpiritCat]

You make your own luck. You fight for loose balls, and win them, then luck seems to follow you. Cats lost almost every loose ball situation.

I did like the way PJC dove for the loose ball at the end of the game. Other plays need to do the same. I've never seen Ristic dive for a loose ball.

[zonagrad]

By the way, with all of the over-the-top luck of Washington, it's only fair to point out the single and only lucky moment of Arizona the entire game: When Crisp was late getting to his spot, the ref under the basket didn't make a signature PAC-12 offensive foul call on Rawle on his only made basket of the night. By the standards of tonight's game, that was lucky.

Yes, and it was clearly a blocking foul. But lucky Pac 12 referee suckage didn't present itself.

[cats101]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Riiiiiigggghhhhht. First place and top ten without a key player for much of the season. Just lost to a really good team, on the road, by a prayer. See Longhorned's post about basketball knowledge and take it to heart.

So, this team wins more than 2 games in March? Which team since November has this team beaten worth bragging about? I'm typically an optimistic Homer, but I'm sorry this team just isn't that great. College bball stinks this year.

Btw uw is barely a tournament team. At best.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

They are now

[KillerKlown]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Riiiiiigggghhhhht. First place and top ten without a key player for much of the season. Just lost to a really good team, on the road, by a prayer. See Longhorned's post about basketball knowledge and take it to heart.

So, this team wins more than 2 games in March? Which team since November has this team beaten worth bragging about? I'm typically an optimistic Homer, but I'm sorry this team just isn't that great. College bball stinks this year.

Btw uw is barely a tournament team. At best.

So college basketball stinks because this team isn't great? Most season's there isn't a great team in college. This is a very good team like every other top team this season besides one.

[Beachcat97]

Whatever. No one in their right mind thought we were running the table. Gotta sweep the L.A. schools next week. No excuses.

[dmjcat]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Riiiiiigggghhhhht. First place and top ten without a key player for much of the season. Just lost to a really good team, on the road, by a prayer. See Longhorned's post about basketball knowledge and take it to heart.

So, this team wins more than 2 games in March? Which team since November has this team beaten worth bragging about? I'm typically an optimistic Homer, but I'm sorry this team just isn't that great. College bball stinks this year.

Btw uw is barely a tournament team. At best.

So college basketball stinks because this team isn't great? Most season's there isn't a great team. This is a very good team like every other top team this season besides one.

No, College basketball has been stinking for a while thanks to One n Done.

And anyone who thinks AZ is "Great" needs to get off the opiods/crack/meth. Our D is very, very pedestrian.

[BearDown89]

I think you tip your hat to Noah Dickerson and call it a night.

[zonagrad]

I think you tip your hat to Noah Dickerson and call it a night.

Yep. And when Washington hits the road, the road is going to hit back. Dickerson won't be getting half the calls in which he was bailed out and UW won't bank in two threes and get two more desperation three pointers after blocked shots. Dickerson played a helluva game and made some tremendous shots in traffic.

[PHXCATS]

Whatever. No one in their right mind thought we were running the table. Gotta sweep the L.A. schools next week. No excuses.

I am 99.9 percent sure you said UA wouldn't lose a conference game

[Captain Obvious]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Disappointing season? First of all it's far from over and secondly I'm very pleased with this team. Yeah the Bahamas trip was rough but since then all W's except for two tough road losses against good teams. I'd rather the Cats be tested like tonight and against defenses like Washington plays. That is what will get us ready for the rigors of the NCAA tournament. It won't be an easy path to get to the Final Four (never is) but I'm confident the Cats can do it.

[zonagrad]

This team just isn't that great. Disappointing season.

Riiiiiigggghhhhht. First place and top ten without a key player for much of the season. Just lost to a really good team, on the road, by a prayer. See Longhorned's post about basketball knowledge and take it to heart.

So, this team wins more than 2 games in March? Which team since November has this team beaten worth bragging about? I'm typically an optimistic Homer, but I'm sorry this team just isn't that great. College bball stinks this year.

Btw uw is barely a tournament team. At best.

Oh, I don't know. We beat Texas A&M BEFORE they were hit with suspensions. We beat Alabama, which just knocked off Oklahoma AND Florida on the road. Remember Florida? An Elite 8 team a year ago? We beat an undefeated and prematurely praised ASU team and knocked them off their pedestal. We won at Stanford, which by all arguments is a tournament caliber team now that they're healthy.

I do know one thing. We didn't shit the bed at home against Oklahoma State. And we didn't shit the bed at Madison Square Garden, on network television, against a St. John's team in the depths on an 11-game losing streak. We lost to a tournament caliber team that played out their asses, got every lucky bounce and every call and still needed a desperation game winner to put the nail in our coffin.

[Beachcat97]

Whatever. No one in their right mind thought we were running the table. Gotta sweep the L.A. schools next week. No excuses.

I am 99.9 percent sure you said UA wouldn't lose a conference game

I might’ve said that before the Bahamas, in a foolishly optimistic way.

I think there are two more losses coming before Selection Sunday. @ASU and one in the Pac tourney.

That’ll land us a 4 seed. We’d probably need to win the Pac tourney to reach the next seed line. Also depends on what’s going on in the ACC and Big 12, of course.

[Harvey Specter]

Whatever. No one in their right mind thought we were running the table. Gotta sweep the L.A. schools next week. No excuses.

I am 99.9 percent sure you said UA wouldn't lose a conference game

Given your track record of predictions, a saying about glass houses comes to mind.

[Harvey Specter]

You make your own luck. You fight for loose balls, and win them, then luck seems to follow you. Cats lost almost every loose ball situation.

That's popular conventional wisdom that makes for a nice mantra. As for the value of conventional wisdom, I side with Thomas Paine.

Over time that statement applies. Over a small sample size? It is patently false. Read The Drunkard's Walk... Great book.

First Hal was rough, second half was solid. We play against any team the way we did over the final 20 and we will be just fine. Rawle plays even close to his ability on top of it and we will beat just about anybody.

This is the first loss of the season I am not pissed off about. Disappointed, yes. We will fall 2-3 spots in the polls, and that's it. More positives than negatives for me tonight.

[DrWildcat]

Unlucky defines Arizona basketball for as many years as I can remember.

[Longhorned]

Played very poorly the first half

Got out-hustled on almost every loose ball

PJC’s effort coming out of the half was awful

Poor shot selection down the stretch

Akot could have made some kind of brilliant momentary decision to anticipate Ayton’s block and stay on Green instead of going for the rebound

——

All those above were in Arizona’s control. Yet Arizona still wins that game if not for getting ridiculously unlucky.

[PHXCATS]

U of A played a very unclean game and got very unlucky.

U of A is very good and was the better team clearly.

Hats off to Washington for playing smart ( knowing Ayton blocks balls out to the 3 point line) and hitting shots although they were extremely lucky shots.

[Beachcat97]

Not worried about losing on a buzzer beater to a good team at their place, as long as we bounce back and go 2-0 this week. We can virtually lock up the Pac with two wins.

[CalStateTempe]

Harv, you know I respect your opinion so for sake of discussion. How much time is needed for an appropriate sample size in a single game.

I have always maintained that single game outcomes are the result of aggregate plays, decisions, and nuances that occur over the game.

The perception is the the last 3 was a huge “unlucky shot” and it weighted in our memory accordingly whereas the three Washington drained in the first half due to poor defense and being outhustled are weighted in our collective memory incredible low, if they are even remembered. But both contribute equally to the outcome. As play well within our control in the first half.

Thanks for the book selection, I have a feeling I’ll dig it.

I too am not worried about this loss. As lite would say, when you lose, don’t lose the lesson.

Hope they learn from this and move on.

[ChooChooCat]

Disappointed with the effort in the 1st half, but that had to do with missing those open shots at the FT line that UW was just begging us to shoot. We hit those and the effort level rises. Not concerned about this loss, but would really like to see a leader on the floor demand the most out of his guys though, so we don't have these effort issues due to poor shooting.

[Beachcat97]

Not pointing fingers, but Ayton missing that go-ahead FT really hurt. It meant a live rebound situation rather than an out of bound situation. Our defense was more back on its heels, so even though DA did get a huge block and almost lock up the win for us, that missed FT changed the rhythm of the game’s final possession.

[Harvey Specter]

Harv, you know I respect your opinion so for sake of discussion. How much time is needed for an appropriate sample size in a single game.

I have always maintained that single game outcomes are the result of aggregate plays, decisions, and nuances that occur over the game.

The perception is the the last 3 was a huge “unlucky shot” and it weighted in our memory accordingly whereas the three Washington drained in the first half due to poor defense and being outhustled are weighted in our collective memory incredible low, if they are even remembered. But both contribute equally to the outcome. As play well within our control in the first half.

Thanks for the book selection, I have a feeling I’ll dig it.

I too am not worried about this loss. As lite would say, when you lose, don’t lose the lesson.

Hope they learn from this and move on.

I only can judge each game as I see it... I thought the first half was quite poor, and coming out of the break was abysmal. I thought for the last ~17? minutes, they looked extremely good with the exception of Alkins. Trier (who you know I cannot stand) was outstanding.

My takeaway from last night: I thought the team turned it around in a BIG way and had several guys make BIG plays down the stretch in a VERY hostile environment against a team that I think is under-respected. For Chrissakes, ASU was still in the Top 25 despite being 4-5 in a SHIT conference because they beat KU in AFH; So did the Huskies.

The lethargic effort in the first half where UW clearly appeared to want it more was disturbing... so my overall perspective is quite possibly (even likely) the result of recency bias.

As for the pervading board sentiment... I am not one who constantly applies the "we were unlucky" rallying cry to many losses... but I would say the ball did not bounce our way last night. 2 banked 3's, the final Ayton shot-block assist for a winning 3, and some horrendous foul calls on our big men outweighed any good fortune that came our way. The only other loss I recall thinking "man, God was just not a Cat fan tonight" was one of the E8 losses to Wiscy where they could not miss ANY rainbows from 3. I would also say that losing Ashley (late in the one season where I felt like we had the best team in CBB) was another stroke.

That book is a PHENOMENAL read and if you do not LOVE it... PM me and I will reimburse you. It is THAT good.

We as fans judge results... and over time, given a level playing field and enough data points, that is a legitimate measure. And while others can say "CSM has been here 9 years and we have ZERO Final 4's", I would counter that my view of his teams' collective performance over those 9 years demonstrated a level of (generally consistent) excellence with which I am quite satisfied.

For an example outside the Sports world: Ask any HR person "Who is the best salesperson?" on any team, and they will scramble for the latest rack & stack because "numbers don't lie" (Another good book called "How to lie with statistics" comes to mind). Where a sales rep ranks "on the board" is based on a variety of factors, many of which have ZERO to do with how effective they are in their role: territory makeup, local market dynamics, politicized or random processes for budget assignment, etc.

You want to really know who the best salesperson on a team is? Don't ask HR, Finance, or Operations; hell, don't ask executive sales leadership, either. Get all the salespeople in the group together, and tell them to imagine they have a deal they HAVE to win and they MUST pick someone to fill in on their behalf: they have to vote for ONE person, and they cannot vote for themself. The results of that exercise will give you the correct answer to the question, answered by the people who know.

I have not seen any surveys of college coach opinions of their peers, but I strongly suspect that Sean Miller would finish quite high on a national level, and clearly tops in the PAC. Until my perception of THAT dynamic changes, he will have my unwavering support... regardless of whether or not we make a Final 4.

[Puerco]

Bad luck is hard to beat with no defense

[FreeSpiritCat]

Bad luck is hard to beat with no defense

Right! If the Cats would have played hard for 40 minutes luck would have unlikely played a role on who won the game. Human tendency is to be unfocused until stress builds up sufficiently. On the road this has more of an impact.

[Bangkok Wildcat]

Losing at UW sucks but I do like how the Cats fought back in the second half AND with that last minute crazy 3 to win, makes it a bit easier to swallow.....However, I’m still bitter losing at Rado. Hate, hate, hate whiny Tad Boyle!

[rgdeuce]

Good reason to play hard for the full 40. With the amount of talent on this team, it's a good way to greatly mitigate the chance of bad bounces or bad calls affecting the final outcome.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Play better and you don't need luck.

Have more luck and you don't need to play better.

Team only controls one of those variables.

[dcZONAfan]

Hats off to Washington for playing smart ( knowing Ayton blocks balls out to the 3 point line)

Ummmmmm what?

[PHXCATS]

Hats off to Washington for playing smart ( knowing Ayton blocks balls out to the 3 point line)

Ummmmmm what?

I cannot find video of the one a little earlier but at the end of the game right now, but look at the final play. Green is in perfect position to get the blocked ball and to shoot.

Washington on the final play.

You have the driver who gets swatted. You have two other guys crashing to get a board/putback. Then you have Green in perfect position for the ball being swatted to the corner. You also have one other guy moving to the top of the key to get the ball potentially if Ayton swats it that way.

Ayton swats the ball OB towards the baseline or tips it high to grab it or uses two hands like Walton always preaches, U of A forces OT.

[Chicat]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

[Spaceman Spiff]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

If they anticipated that correctly, they are coached by some sort of wizard. To presume a block and anticipate direction and length...dang.

[PHXCATS]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

If they anticipated that correctly, they are coached by some sort of wizard. To presume a block and anticipate direction and length...dang.

It happened twice so either Washington got extremely lucky being in the right spot at the right time twice and that he players didnt crash the boards to get a tip in or offensive board or I should be a basketball coach because I saw this clear as day.

Or we can listen to Bill Walton and play OT

[Spaceman Spiff]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

If they anticipated that correctly, they are coached by some sort of wizard. To presume a block and anticipate direction and length...dang.

It happened twice so either Washington got extremely lucky being in the right spot at the right time twice or I should be a basketball coach because I saw this clear as day.

Or we can listen to Bill Walton and play OT

Maybe you should be a basketball coach?

Maybe UW rotates shooters to specific locations on drives for the kick and the block happened to go to those locations?

[PHXCATS]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

If they anticipated that correctly, they are coached by some sort of wizard. To presume a block and anticipate direction and length...dang.

It happened twice so either Washington got extremely lucky being in the right spot at the right time twice or I should be a basketball coach because I saw this clear as day.

Or we can listen to Bill Walton and play OT

Maybe you should be a basketball coach?

Maybe UW rotates shooters to specific locations on drives for the kick and the block happened to go to those locations?

I just added to my post but especially the last play with two seconds left you would think you would crash the boards more for a tip in or offensive rebound. If someone on Washington gets an offensive rebound they probably dont have the time to kick it back out to the guy on the 3 line.

[Longhorned]

This notion of scouting shot blockers to position your players in the exact spot on the floor to get an open shot after a swat.... Just imagine that conversation among the coaches, and in practice, and in the huddle:

"Green - you stand at a 43 degree angle from the center of the hoop at a distance of 21 feet. Crisp - you drive, stop and shoot right here where Ayton shares the radial axis with the hoop and Green!"

Now try to imagine a huddle where the coach positions shooters on the perimeter for the kick out after a penetrating teammate draws defenders, or after a teammate grabs an offensive rebound.

How smart is Washington?

Old NBA players say Bill Russel had the all-time best timing and control on shot blocking. He frequently blocked to a teammate instead of swatting it out of bounds or creating a broken play that created a shot opportunity. No, Ayton doesn't have that. Neither did Wilt.

[Olsondogg]

We can't have nice threads.

[Spaceman Spiff]

This notion of scouting shot blockers to position your players in the exact spot on the floor to get an open shot after a swat.... Just imagine that conversation among the coaches, and in practice, and in the huddle:

"Green - you stand at a 43 degree angle from the center of the hoop at a distance of 21 feet. Crisp - you drive, stop and shoot right here where Ayton shares the radial axis with the hoop and Green!"

Now try to imagine a huddle where the coach positions shooters on the perimeter for the kick out after a penetrating teammate draws defenders, or after a teammate grabs an offensive rebound.

How smart is Washington?

Old NBA players say Bill Russel had the all-time best timing and control on shot blocking. He frequently blocked to a teammate instead of swatting it out of bounds or creating a broken play that created a shot opportunity. No, Ayton doesn't have that. Neither did Wilt.

Positioning for the kick out is it. Saying crash the boards, well, until the driver shoots, the spot up shooter doesn't know if the ball is getting shot or kicked to him.

Here's the setup. See Green already positioned for a kick.



He stays put to provide spacing and a kick option for Nowell. He has nowhere to sink with the drive. When Nowell puts it up and it is blocked, he is there.

"Crashing the boards" kills spacing by running your defender into the driver. Staying spaced makes the D commit one way or another by the threat of the kick. That is a EXTRAORDINARILY common offensive tack. The ballside corner 3...many offenses are premised on that.

[Harvey Specter]

No team positions based on the anticipation of a blocked shot.

If they anticipated that correctly, they are coached by some sort of wizard. To presume a block and anticipate direction and length...dang.

It happened twice so either Washington got extremely lucky being in the right spot at the right time twice and that he players didn't crash the boards to get a tip in or offensive board or I should be a basketball coach because I saw this clear as day.

Or we can listen to Bill Walton and play OT

It's unfortunate you are not more intelligent, because if you were you'd make one helluvan entrepreneur. Your imagination is... active.

PS - Seeing things that others don't doesn't always make a person a visionary.

[YoDeFoe]

It happened twice so either Washington got extremely lucky being in the right spot at the right time twice and that he players didn't crash the boards to get a tip in or offensive board or I should be a basketball coach because I saw this clear as day.

Or we can listen to Bill Walton and play OT

Seeing things that others don't doesn't always make a person a visionary.