I don't think we've ever said that so often. Even in the losses, they hung in there tough, finding every way to stay in the game until the lack of player development on the bench left no more ways. We haven't seen them just lose like last year's team did.
And make no mistake about it, last year's team on December 2 would have lost to this UConn team today at Hartford. The defense would have been helpless, they wouldn't have been able to get the ball into Ayton's hands, and there wouldn't have been the floor leadership or the toughness to win on the road like that.
Just finished watching it. So impressed by this team's poise down the stretch. How about those clutch FTs?! Luther, Randolph and Williams were all huge.
I'll echo what's been said about Jeter: he's better than I expected. Excellent footwork in the paint, and man does he have good instincts for taking a charge.
And when our bench plays like that, we're a different team.
I'm still not sure we can actually *win* the Pac, but these past couple weeks have me convinced we can at least be a contender.
Props to Sean Miller. This team is responding very nicely to what he's doing.
I don't think we've ever said that so often. Even in the losses, they hung in there tough, finding every way to stay in the game until the lack of player development on the bench left no more ways. We haven't seen them just lose like last year's team did.
And make no mistake about it, last year's team on December 2 would have lost to this UConn team today at Hartford. The defense would have been helpless, they wouldn't have been able to get the ball into Ayton's hands, and there wouldn't have been the floor leadership or the toughness to win on the road like that.
I'm hopeful the bench issues we saw in Hawaii are solveable, and we saw the solution yesterday. Akot, Lee and Smith all looked like legitimate options. They take us from 5 deep to 8 deep.
In Hawaii, Lee was ok and Akot and Smith did zilch. We went 8 deep with 2 (maybe 3 because Luther struggled) noncontributors. It's about 8 guys consistenty having a positive impact.
I wholly agree on the attitude last year vs this year. Last year we just played. If the other team raised intensity, we just ket toodling along. This year, we bring our own intensity and aggressiveness. We've only lost with a significant talent disadvantage.
rgdeuce wrote:Swapping Akot for Luther in the starting 5 has seemed to work very well thus far.
It's seemed to give Akot more confidence and aggressiveness while turning Luther into a stabilizing bench force. Akot gets to be a complementary part instead of having to lead the bench crew and Luther leads the bench crew.
I'd be surprised if we went back, as well as it's worked so far. Props to Luther for dealing with it so well too. No drama, just production.
The best thing I saw yesterday was the offense being used to its full capability.
I take the Luther foul on the baseline, where he had the man flying at him late and turned it into free throws. Ball started at the point, there was a screen and chance to drive, but it would have been a good, not great opportunity. Quickly swung left, shooter at the angle left quickly showed shot, drew the defender up, leaving Luther open in the corner.
If the point had driven, or the wing shooter had shot or used the close out defender to drive by, it would have been taking advantage of defensive assignments out of position and utilizing the personal skill of the two players to drive and finish or shoot the three. Both were capable.
But the defense was scrambling. Point has options, causes defense to react, swings to a shooter who quick fakes, causing the remaining defense on that side of the ball to react...now we have 2 or 3 defenders out of position and others scrambling to cover. We can take what has been given, which is good...or make that ONE MORE PASS to the corner and Luther, where UConn is so scrambled, they literally just Superman at him...the rotation is way too late to close with feet down on the shooter to take the drive away as well. It was a desperate close.
Luther jumps into the defender, gets a shot off, and we get FTs. Actually,if they didn't react as well as they did given how scrambled they were, Luther has a wide open corner 3. Either way...Best outcome basketball.
Last year, PJC tries to drive, or recognizes and kicks to Trier/Alkins, who has a defender coming from below to close on them, and they can shoot over the late defender or pump and blow by. What do you think they do? And in Trier's case, it might even be the right thing to do. But a better option for this team, with that wing (Smith?), lurked...and we took it.
That's why I get frustrated a bit when I hear about Sean Miller's offense being stagnant or too much hero ball in it, or whatever...the offense is built to be like a human computer, to use our interchangeable parts at 4 positions (fair enough it was usually 3 last year if Dusan and Deandre were on the court), to keep probing until the best possible option presents itself.
We did that well yesterday, especially in the end game. It was, I thought, the best example of two very competent X and O's coaches getting what they wanted out of teams that were, for the most part, willing to see the sets to their best conclusion. Then, sometimes, you get a kid like the UConn guard who split the hedge and Brandon Randolph with a low crossover and hit a pull-up...that's just fkn talent and a perfect individual play. Those are allowed in hoops, too.
I was just impressed with the team's willingness to max out a possession opportunity. Sometimes that is in transition, sometimes it happens 3 seconds in, sometimes, it takes 20 seconds and 10 passes. But we were getting very good looks and often didn't score when a take to the rim came off hard or rolled around and off.
Frybry02 wrote:Great win in a great road atmosphere. I believe the reported attend a e was over 14600. The only PAC12 team that the cats will face on the road that will come close to that number will be ASU. Utah and Oregon are usually in 12k range. I am looking forward to this teams continued improvement the rest of the non-conference slate.
Just like our pac road games, we draw the biggest crowds wherever we go to play.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:
You could tell AZ blew up ESPNs talking points. Greenburg couldn't have sounded more disappointed when the final horn sounded. And ANYthing Hurley did they were ready to call him the second coming of Coach Wooden. I'm sure they had a whole anointment post game segment ready to go the second UCONN won. Oh wait... fuck...
Frybry02 wrote:Great win in a great road atmosphere. I believe the reported attend a e was over 14600. The only PAC12 team that the cats will face on the road that will come close to that number will be ASU. Utah and Oregon are usually in 12k range. I am looking forward to this teams continued improvement the rest of the non-conference slate.
Just like our pac road games, we draw the biggest crowds wherever we go to play.
And the only reason the ASU crowd would be that big is since it's 50% Arizona fans. The biggest hostile true road crowds we'd ever see in conference aren't much more than 10-11k
i was going to put the ua/asu records here...but i forgot what they were.
Frybry02 wrote:Great win in a great road atmosphere. I believe the reported attend a e was over 14600. The only PAC12 team that the cats will face on the road that will come close to that number will be ASU. Utah and Oregon are usually in 12k range. I am looking forward to this teams continued improvement the rest of the non-conference slate.
Just like our pac road games, we draw the biggest crowds wherever we go to play.
And the only reason the ASU crowd would be that big is since it's 50% Arizona fans. The biggest hostile true road crowds we'd ever see in conference aren't much more than 10-11k
Not trying to fight with you here but when was the last time you went to UA at asu for men's basketball?
Nothing about who is a good or better fan. Just things have changed the last few years with that game so want to know your base for this comment
2018 Bear Down Wildcats Conference Championship Challenge Champion
Beachcat97 wrote:
I'm still not sure we can actually *win* the Pac, but these past couple weeks have me convinced we can at least be a contender.
What team in the Pac actually scares you?
Sure... we are going to lose some games in the Pac this year.... but there is honestly no game remaining on our schedule that I expect us to lose.
There's no team that scares me. I'm just trying to manage expectations in a year where we have so many new players and shaky depth. Maybe that shakiness stabilizes in the coming weeks.
Even though they've struggled, Oregon remains the team to beat, imo. They're not at full strength yet. 5-star Louis King is set to debut soon. I have a lot of respect for Altman. He'll have that team hitting their stride by February, if not sooner.
I think ASU is fool's gold. Again. They play Nevada this week, easily their toughest game. Let's see what happens.
UCLA has been up and down. They've got so many future pros on that roster that they can almost win by accident. So it just depends on which Bruin team shows up. The one that got run off the floor by MSU or the one that just steamrolled LMU last night.
I like that our defense is so improved this year. Miller's best teams have always been dominant defensively. Can we get enough consistency from our outside shooters over the course of the Pac season? Can Jeter stay out of foul trouble consistently? Will Akot emerge as a reliable 6th/7th man? Does Doutrive become a factor? Was Coleman's shooting in Maui a fluke, or can we expect similar performances as the season wears on? Can this team win on the road consistently?
I think we'll remain within striking distance of a Pac title all year. We'll just need to steal some road wins, protect home court and stay healthy. Gonna be a fun ride.
asu has unfortunately been impressive so far but they haven't really played anyone good. I think that Miss State team was slow and unathletic. We will see on them after they play Kansas and Nevada.
Oregon is very talented but a dumptster fire right now. Can Dana turn them around? He is a very good coach.
Other than those two teams, no one worries me at all
2018 Bear Down Wildcats Conference Championship Challenge Champion
Our games at Utah have been sold out or >98% capacity for the last several years, coinciding with Utah's rise (and continuing during the recent retreat) in basketball. While the attendance surpasses McKale, the atmosphere does not, although it is still much better than the rest of the conference. Also, don't forget last year, when it was the first conference road game, and was a pretty vile student section related to the FBI stuff (and Zo "PED").
Beachcat97 wrote:
I'm still not sure we can actually *win* the Pac, but these past couple weeks have me convinced we can at least be a contender.
What team in the Pac actually scares you?
Sure... we are going to lose some games in the Pac this year.... but there is honestly no game remaining on our schedule that I expect us to lose.
There's no team that scares me. I'm just trying to manage expectations in a year where we have so many new players and shaky depth. Maybe that shakiness stabilizes in the coming weeks.
Even though they've struggled, Oregon remains the team to beat, imo. They're not at full strength yet. 5-star Louis King is set to debut soon. I have a lot of respect for Altman. He'll have that team hitting their stride by February, if not sooner.
I think ASU is fool's gold. Again. They play Nevada this week, easily their toughest game. Let's see what happens.
UCLA has been up and down. They've got so many future pros on that roster that they can almost win by accident. So it just depends on which Bruin team shows up. The one that got run off the floor by MSU or the one that just steamrolled LMU last night.
I like that our defense is so improved this year. Miller's best teams have always been dominant defensively. Can we get enough consistency from our outside shooters over the course of the Pac season? Can Jeter stay out of foul trouble consistently? Will Akot emerge as a reliable 6th/7th man? Does Doutrive become a factor? Was Coleman's shooting in Maui a fluke, or can we expect similar performances as the season wears on? Can this team win on the road consistently?
I think we'll remain within striking distance of a Pac title all year. We'll just need to steal some road wins, protect home court and stay healthy. Gonna be a fun ride.
Agreed, there's no reason this team can't compete for the regular season title. Something tells me Oregon gets it together during conference play. I've seen UW 3 times now and for some reason they just don't look very good right now. They returned a lot of talent so it's a little surprising they aren't performing better. I think they will be a pesky out if the game is in Seattle. Az doesn't make the trip there this year though. Not sure of what to make of UCLA yet. Asu has more size this year but I'm not convinced they can win the conference. I'll be interest to see what happens against Nevada.
Anyone who's followed this team through the years knows that we reliably drop a couple we were favored to win. At first glance, there are a lot of Pac cupcakes out there: OSU, WSU, Cal, maybe Utah. But there's always that one game where we come out flat or run into a red-hot shooting opponent. Here's how I think the rest of the schedule goes:
Utah Valley - W
@Alabama - W
Baylor - W
Montana - W
UC Davis - W
Colorado - W
Utah - W
@Stanford - L
@California - W
Oregon - W
Oregon State - W
@USC - W
@UCLA - L
@Arizona State - W
Washington - W
Washington State - W
@Utah - W
@Colorado - L
California - W
Stanford - W
@Oregon State - W
@Oregon - L
Arizona State - W
That would get us to 25-6 and a virtual lock for a tourney bid. The closer to the low 20s our win total, the more "bubbly" we'll be looking.
I like this exercise...I would be surprised if we went 14-4 in the PAC. feel like it will be pretty jumbled at the top, but I think we may finish at 12-6 but still have a shot to win it. If we're 25-6 at the end of this year, we're likely around a 5 seed I would guess...think it's more likely we're 23-8, and we're something like a 7/8 seed.
goslingswagg wrote:I like this exercise...I would be surprised if we went 14-4 in the PAC. feel like it will be pretty jumbled at the top, but I think we may finish at 12-6 but still have a shot to win it. If we're 25-6 at the end of this year, we're likely around a 5 seed I would guess...think it's more likely we're 23-8, and we're something like a 7/8 seed.
23-8 is very possible, but where are those other losses coming? In these remaining OOC games or somewhere amid that mediocre Pac schedule?
goslingswagg wrote:I like this exercise...I would be surprised if we went 14-4 in the PAC. feel like it will be pretty jumbled at the top, but I think we may finish at 12-6 but still have a shot to win it. If we're 25-6 at the end of this year, we're likely around a 5 seed I would guess...think it's more likely we're 23-8, and we're something like a 7/8 seed.
That's how I had it playing out before the UConn game.
This conference is definitely winnable, if the bench keeps stepping up, could possibly add a couple wins if not winning the whole thing. Our conference schedule is top heavy with most of the tough games being in January so the bench will have to be playing well and contributing before then.
Looking back, Washington isn't very good right now and that's definitely a W Arizona can pick up at home. Oregon struggles to score but they got King coming and Altman's team get better later into the season, but that first Home game vs Oregon is very winnable. ASU, depending on what they do vs Nevada, @UGA, @Vandy, vs Kansas could be really tough - Dort looks really good and could be hard to stop at home.
Last edited by NYCat on Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
NYCat wrote:This conference is definitely winnable, if the bench keeps stepping up, could possibly add a couple wins if not winning the whole thing. Our conference schedule is top heavy with most of the tough games being in January so the bench will have to be playing well and contributing before then.
I agree that the bench is key. When Miller knows he can get good minutes out of Akot, Smith, Lee and/or Barcello, it changes everything.
goslingswagg wrote:I like this exercise...I would be surprised if we went 14-4 in the PAC. feel like it will be pretty jumbled at the top, but I think we may finish at 12-6 but still have a shot to win it. If we're 25-6 at the end of this year, we're likely around a 5 seed I would guess...think it's more likely we're 23-8, and we're something like a 7/8 seed.
Holding home court in conference would be huge. I think that defines how conference goes. On the road, I feel like we can knock off enough teams to be .500 at least.
That means home tips the scales. On the upside, I think we can do it. Oregon has been far from bulletproof and UW has been pretty meh.
Beating Alabama and Baylor would cap an OOC as good as I could reasonably have asked for.
SabinoDrifter wrote:FWIW, KenPom's revised prediction for the league is 11-7, which is +2 in wins compared to the pre-season.
Also, defensive efficiency started at 96 and is up to 54.
And someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Kenpom is still taking preseason rankings into account...I believe we have been much better on defense than 54 in AdjD so far this year, I would guess somewhere in the 20s/30s?
SabinoDrifter wrote:FWIW, KenPom's revised prediction for the league is 11-7, which is +2 in wins compared to the pre-season.
Also, defensive efficiency started at 96 and is up to 54.
And someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Kenpom is still taking preseason rankings into account...I believe we have been much better on defense than 54 in AdjD so far this year, I would guess somewhere in the 20s/30s?
I believe so. KenPom's rankings usually stretch back, I think at least to the last 10 games and predictive data.
SabinoDrifter wrote:FWIW, KenPom's revised prediction for the league is 11-7, which is +2 in wins compared to the pre-season.
Also, defensive efficiency started at 96 and is up to 54.
And someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Kenpom is still taking preseason rankings into account...I believe we have been much better on defense than 54 in AdjD so far this year, I would guess somewhere in the 20s/30s?
Correct on KenPom still using pre-season ratings - that will continue through Christmas. KenPom (and other predictives) should be taken with a grain of salt until conference play begins.
New top 25 has only ASU in from the Pac-12. Arizona received 12 votes (effectively making us the 36th ranked team in the country in the official poll).
T-Rank by Bartor Vik which is pretty close to Kenpom has Arizona #21 (90.0) in the last 10 games (only 8 games this season so it's counting that Buffalo massacre)
I think the Baylor and Alabama games will be very important in the long run. Those two (along with iowa State and Uconn) are probably tournament/bubble teams. If we do actually go 2-0 vs Bama and Baylor, and have a decent showing in the Pac I think we are looking at a tournament team.
billk78 wrote:I think the Baylor and Alabama games will be very important in the long run. Those two (along with iowa State and Uconn) are probably tournament/bubble teams. If we do actually go 2-0 vs Bama and Baylor, and have a decent showing in the Pac I think we are looking at a tournament team.
I don't disagree re: the importance of those two games, but Baylor I think at this point is very far from a tournament quality team.
Beachcat97 wrote:
I'm still not sure we can actually *win* the Pac, but these past couple weeks have me convinced we can at least be a contender.
What team in the Pac actually scares you?
Sure... we are going to lose some games in the Pac this year.... but there is honestly no game remaining on our schedule that I expect us to lose.
There's no team that scares me. I'm just trying to manage expectations in a year where we have so many new players and shaky depth. Maybe that shakiness stabilizes in the coming weeks.
Even though they've struggled, Oregon remains the team to beat, imo. They're not at full strength yet. 5-star Louis King is set to debut soon. I have a lot of respect for Altman. He'll have that team hitting their stride by February, if not sooner.
I think ASU is fool's gold. Again. They play Nevada this week, easily their toughest game. Let's see what happens.
UCLA has been up and down. They've got so many future pros on that roster that they can almost win by accident. So it just depends on which Bruin team shows up. The one that got run off the floor by MSU or the one that just steamrolled LMU last night.
I like that our defense is so improved this year. Miller's best teams have always been dominant defensively. Can we get enough consistency from our outside shooters over the course of the Pac season? Can Jeter stay out of foul trouble consistently? Will Akot emerge as a reliable 6th/7th man? Does Doutrive become a factor? Was Coleman's shooting in Maui a fluke, or can we expect similar performances as the season wears on? Can this team win on the road consistently?
I think we'll remain within striking distance of a Pac title all year. We'll just need to steal some road wins, protect home court and stay healthy. Gonna be a fun ride.
Agreed, there's no reason this team can't compete for the regular season title. Something tells me Oregon gets it together during conference play. I've seen UW 3 times now and for some reason they just don't look very good right now. They returned a lot of talent so it's a little surprising they aren't performing better. I think they will be a pesky out if the game is in Seattle. Az doesn't make the trip there this year though. Not sure of what to make of UCLA yet. Asu has more size this year but I'm not convinced they can win the conference. I'll be interest to see what happens against Nevada.
Oregon will be a completely different team once their all everything 5 star freshman is in the lineup.
billk78 wrote:I think the Baylor and Alabama games will be very important in the long run. Those two (along with iowa State and Uconn) are probably tournament/bubble teams. If we do actually go 2-0 vs Bama and Baylor, and have a decent showing in the Pac I think we are looking at a tournament team.
I don't disagree re: the importance of those two games, but Baylor I think at this point is very far from a tournament quality team.
Both games would really hurt our resume to lose. Passing OOC with only L's to Zaga and Auburn would really help establish us as a tourney team.
Then, pray for UConn and ISU to look great in conference play.
billk78 wrote:I think the Baylor and Alabama games will be very important in the long run. Those two (along with iowa State and Uconn) are probably tournament/bubble teams. If we do actually go 2-0 vs Bama and Baylor, and have a decent showing in the Pac I think we are looking at a tournament team.
I'd posit that the Baylor game is as big if not almost bigger than the Bama game simply based on how the Big 12 SOS will help us. Even on a down year for Baylor (they were a 3 seed and consistent tourney team just a year or two ago), their conference slate will boost our resume more than Bama IMO.
The Big 12 is such a gauntlet that they'll pull an upset here and there against a Quality team simply from facing worn out teams during the dog days of the season. Look at Iowa State last year. Their worst season in years but still had some great wins throughout the year and their resume was still VERY strong despite not being tourney worthy due to attrition in the Big 12
Basically, beat the Big 12 and it'll just get better and better, as we will have very few shots to really boost our resume once the Pac12 play starts
New top 25 has only ASU in from the Pac-12. Arizona received 12 votes (effectively making us the 36th ranked team in the country in the official poll).
Notice we're the top ranked Pac-12 team in his rankings? Has ASU at 36. Guessing that SOS of 277 might have something to do with that.
New top 25 has only ASU in from the Pac-12. Arizona received 12 votes (effectively making us the 36th ranked team in the country in the official poll).
Notice we're the top ranked Pac-12 team in his rankings? Has ASU at 36. Guessing that SOS of 277 might have something to do with that.
Being honest, I feel like we have the best resume of any Pac team right now. Our two losses are not bad, and certainly better L's than any other Pac team. Our ISU and UConn wins are also two better W's than virtually anyone else has.
New top 25 has only ASU in from the Pac-12. Arizona received 12 votes (effectively making us the 36th ranked team in the country in the official poll).
Notice we're the top ranked Pac-12 team in his rankings? Has ASU at 36. Guessing that SOS of 277 might have something to do with that.
Being honest, I feel like we have the best resume of any Pac team right now. Our two losses are not bad, and certainly better L's than any other Pac team. Our ISU and UConn wins are also two better W's than virtually anyone else has.
I am amazed how once again the Pac is doing so poorly. I though last year was bad (embarrassing) enough.
New top 25 has only ASU in from the Pac-12. Arizona received 12 votes (effectively making us the 36th ranked team in the country in the official poll).
Notice we're the top ranked Pac-12 team in his rankings? Has ASU at 36. Guessing that SOS of 277 might have something to do with that.
Being honest, I feel like we have the best resume of any Pac team right now. Our two losses are not bad, and certainly better L's than any other Pac team. Our ISU and UConn wins are also two better W's than virtually anyone else has.
I am amazed how once again the Pac is doing so poorly. I though last year was bad (embarrassing) enough.
It's not as bad as 11-12. That was the nadir. At least we have some decent OOC wins. 11-12 was basically a shutout.
But yeah, it would be nice if we weren't staring down a SOS hit in conference. Having UCLA not suck it would be a nice start, but I'm increasingly convinced Alford has nothing without Lonzo. Sadly, Oregon will start rolling right after they drop far enough that a loss to them will be bad for us.
Our neutral win over Iowa St is among the best of the conference thus far, up there with Oregon over Syracuse (neutral) and ASU over Miss. St (neutral).
Looking at the conference W-L by team... looks like only Arizona, ASU, Oregon, and UCLA could possibly get an at large bid from our conference.
UCLA is in a similar spot as us, with two forgivable losses and the opportunity to secure a handful of "good, not great" wins (though UCLA has none thus far and will need to win against Cincy and Ohio St in late December to secure theirs, while we have two in the pocket and a potential for one more at Alabama).
ASU has yet to lose and could drop their marquee games against Nevada and KU before feeling the bubble.
Oregon has one marquee win, two 50/50 game losses, and a bad home loss. They'd be toast if not for the injury to potential star wing Louis King. That excuse will likely wear thin if Oregon suffers another loss in their non-conference slate, with only a game at Baylor remaining among KenPom top 100 opponents.
Besides ASU, each team will need to win out in non-conference to feel good about their tournament resume. A bad showing in conference (likely anything more than 6 or 7 losses) will burst any of the four's bubble.
Last edited by YoDeFoe on Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I thought I was being a hater with not being impressed by asu's win over Miss St who was ranked 15 at the time. Glad I see things the same way as you all do
2018 Bear Down Wildcats Conference Championship Challenge Champion
And boeheim will still get in, again, like every year, over a bunch of other teams that will whine about the cuse getting in, then they will win 3 games and get in again next year.
Arizona State might have the most surprisingly anemic history in men's basketball of any program that you might think is better than it is.
-Norlander.
