Official Bracketology Thread

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:59 am

On Saturday the NCAA will reveal it's top 16.

With our metrics it will be interesting to see if we make the list. I'm guessing we land at #15.

pokinmik · Post by **pokinmik** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:15 am

That would be nice. Definitely possible.

It’s so painful to think if we just held on versus Oregon and AsU we’d be ranked top10 right now with a 4-2 road record.* Oh well just keep notching victories.

*other teams could definitely say this too and maybe we wouldn’t have learned some painful lessons for the long haul. I guess no point thinking of “what if”

Statfreak77 · Post by **Statfreak77** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:19 am

Alieberman wrote:On Saturday the NCAA will reveal it's top 16.

With our metrics it will be interesting to see if we make the list. I'm guessing we land at #15.

Metric wise, Arizona should be in the top 16.

Overall resume, I just don't think they meet that criteria.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:42 am

We actually moved down in KenPom after last nights win. I think we could move down farther without a big win on Saturday

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:48 am

84Cat wrote:We actually moved down in KenPom after last nights win. I think we could move down farther without a big win on Saturday

We need to get back on the losing track.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:58 am

pokinmik wrote:That would be nice. Definitely possible.

It’s so painful to think if we just held on versus Oregon and ASU we’d be ranked top10 right now with a 4-2 road record.* Oh well just keep notching victories.

*other teams could definitely say this too and maybe we wouldn’t have learned some painful lessons for the long haul. I guess no point thinking of “what if”

the ASU loss specifically is painful...and even in that, if Arizona continues its hot play could come back from the Bay winners of eight of its last nine games including its last four on the road hosting the Oregon schools in what could be a revenge weekend to get to eight straight.

im a broken record, i know, but Arizona's schedule has set up perfect this year, thats why the loss to ASU hurts so much - legitimately Arizona could play its way to the two line if it continues this hot streak and capitalizes on the oft mentioned favorable schedule by some annoying guy on here.

my expectation is for Arizona to win its next four games

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:04 am

97cats wrote:
pokinmik wrote:That would be nice. Definitely possible.

It’s so painful to think if we just held on versus Oregon and ASU we’d be ranked top10 right now with a 4-2 road record.* Oh well just keep notching victories.

*other teams could definitely say this too and maybe we wouldn’t have learned some painful lessons for the long haul. I guess no point thinking of “what if”
the ASU loss specifically is painful...and even in that, if Arizona continues its hot play could come back from the Bay winners of eight of its last nine games including its last four on the road hosting the Oregon schools in what could be a revenge weekend to get to eight straight.

im a broken record, i know, but Arizona's schedule has set up perfect this year, thats why the loss to ASU hurts so much - legitimately Arizona could play its way to the two line if it continues this hot streak and capitalizes on the oft mentioned favorable schedule by some annoying guy on here.

my expectation is for Arizona to win its next four games

That's my expectation too I just don't trust this team to not fuck it up.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:14 am

Not to overlook UCLA, who we all know will have their best shooting game of the season tomorrow, but Stanford did beat Oregon in Palo Alto, so I’d be pleasantly surprised to win that one. Going forward we just need to avoid any more bad losses and beat Oregon at McKale.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:37 am

Beachcat97 wrote:Not to overlook UCLA,

doesnt matter, they are dog shit awful this year - dog shit

Beachcat97 wrote:who we all know will have their best shooting game of the season tomorrow,

wont matter

Beachcat97 wrote: but Stanford did beat Oregon in Palo Alto,

Arizona is comfortable in Palo Alto

Beachcat97 wrote:so I’d be pleasantly surprised to win that one.

did you know, Sean Miller is 9-0 at Stanford while head man at Arizona and 18-0 overall

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:49 am

If our perimeter guys play smart, we can beat anybody. Unfortunately, we haven't done that yet. They fall in love with the 3 and our offense falls apart for large stretches allowing teams to get back into the game. Play smart and we should win the rest of our conference games.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:07 pm

97cats wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:Not to overlook UCLA,
doesnt matter, they are dog shit awful this year - dog shit

Beachcat97 wrote:who we all know will have their best shooting game of the season tomorrow,
wont matter

Beachcat97 wrote: but Stanford did beat Oregon in Palo Alto,
Arizona is comfortable in Palo Alto

Beachcat97 wrote:so I’d be pleasantly surprised to win that one.
did you know, Sean Miller is 9-0 at Stanford while head man at Arizona and 18-0 overall

All good points, 97. Glad to see your confidence in this team is enduring.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:30 pm

It’s not hard to be confident in this team due to their talent in relation to the rest of the league and the rest of D1.

It is hard to be confident at times though when you look at things like execution down the stretch and how young our core is.

We can certainly win our next four games. We are also some tired legs and a late game Dylan Smith turnover fest away from 2-2 or worse.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:42 pm

Chicat wrote:It’s not hard to be confident in this team due to their talent in relation to the rest of the league and the rest of D1.

It is hard to be confident at times though when you look at things like execution down the stretch and how young our core is.

We can certainly win our next four games. We are also some tired legs and a late game Dylan Smith turnover fest away from 2-2 or worse.

Last night's game was the first, maybe all season, where my prediction was pretty close. The spread was around 10, some were expecting we'd win by 20, but I thought it would be closer. No particular reason. USC is decent, and we've struggled to play good basketball for 40 full minutes.

I hear ya, Chi. The talent and potential is there. Every year there are teams that click at the right time and surprise everyone late in the season. One of these years, it's going to be us. I actually think it's more likely that one of our more marginal teams (ranked in the 15-25 range) reaches the FF than one of our preseason top 10 teams.

I do think we'll beat UCLA tomorrow. We've played our best ball at McKale, and even though UCLA has played better lately, I think they're going to struggle guarding Zeke. Just gotta keep them off the offensive boards. USC got waaaaaay too many second chances.

Beyond that, here's how I think the remaining reg season games will go:

@Cal (W)
@Stanford (W)
OSU (W)
ORE (W)
@USC (L)
@UCLA (W)
WSU (W)
UW (W)

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:48 pm

97cats wrote:
pokinmik wrote:That would be nice. Definitely possible.

It’s so painful to think if we just held on versus Oregon and ASU we’d be ranked top10 right now with a 4-2 road record.* Oh well just keep notching victories.

*other teams could definitely say this too and maybe we wouldn’t have learned some painful lessons for the long haul. I guess no point thinking of “what if”
the ASU loss specifically is painful...and even in that, if Arizona continues its hot play could come back from the Bay winners of eight of its last nine games including its last four on the road hosting the Oregon schools in what could be a revenge weekend to get to eight straight.

im a broken record, i know, but Arizona's schedule has set up perfect this year, thats why the loss to ASU hurts so much - legitimately Arizona could play its way to the two line if it continues this hot streak and capitalizes on the oft mentioned favorable schedule by some annoying guy on here.

my expectation is for Arizona to win its next four games

I'm only confident of winning 3/4. I will be pleasantly surprised if we beat Stanford in Palo Alto but I'm not expecting it. The one road sweep we have is over the 10/12th place teams in the conference.......and the #12 team nearly beat us. We have still not defeated any team of note on the road.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:52 pm

97cats wrote:did you know, Sean Miller is 9-0 at Stanford while head man at Arizona and 18-0 overall

Is that good? Asking for a friend.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:53 pm

azgreg wrote:
97cats wrote:did you know, Sean Miller is 9-0 at Stanford while head man at Arizona and 18-0 overall
Is that good? Asking for a friend.

decent - if Arizona loses on the NorCal trip, history would say its at Cal...we will see.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:09 pm

84Cat wrote:If our perimeter guys play smart, we can beat anybody. Unfortunately, we haven't done that yet. They fall in love with the 3 and our offense falls apart for large stretches allowing teams to get back into the game. Play smart and we should win the rest of our conference games.

I'm not disagreeing with this -- but also consider the type of players that are settling for jump shots.

Miller has touched on the concern about not getting to the FT line enough -- attacking the rim. Mannion & Green have the skill set to do this and they did so last night. Both got to the FT line quite a bit. They need to do that more often.

But Baker, Hazzard and Smith are not good at attacking the rim. It's just not a strength.

On another note, Miller and the staff really needs to evaluate playing time in tight games, especially involving Dylan Smith.
His conference stats are really poor -- in 9 games he's shooting 35% FG, 31% 3 pt.FG, and 59% FT. But in tight games he's been more of a liability.

Against Oregon, ASU and UW (in which Arizona went 1-2) Dylan Smith shot 1-6 from the FT line. A number of those misses were in the final minutes in which the pressure was greater. He missed the front end of a 1 and 1 at Oregon with 1:28 remaining, which would've given Arizona potentially a six point lead.

Against ASU he missed two FTs with 3:25 remaining and Arizona trailing by two.

Against UW, he went 1-3 (one of the misses was a front end so a potential for 2 points).

Last night, Smith went 3-4 from the line but 1-2 in the final :25 as Arizona looked to ice the game.

1-6 FTs in crunch time is a big deal and presents a problem for the coaching staff that understands Smith is a best choice for defense late in the game but also a big liability on offense because of his poor decision-making.

PennZona20 · Post by **PennZona20** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:29 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
Chicat wrote:It’s not hard to be confident in this team due to their talent in relation to the rest of the league and the rest of D1.

It is hard to be confident at times though when you look at things like execution down the stretch and how young our core is.

We can certainly win our next four games. We are also some tired legs and a late game Dylan Smith turnover fest away from 2-2 or worse.
Last night's game was the first, maybe all season, where my prediction was pretty close. The spread was around 10, some were expecting we'd win by 20, but I thought it would be closer. No particular reason. USC is decent, and we've struggled to play good basketball for 40 full minutes.

I hear ya, Chi. The talent and potential is there. Every year there are teams that click at the right time and surprise everyone late in the season. One of these years, it's going to be us. I actually think it's more likely that one of our more marginal teams (ranked in the 15-25 range) reaches the FF than one of our preseason top 10 teams.

I do think we'll beat UCLA tomorrow. We've played our best ball at McKale, and even though UCLA has played better lately, I think they're going to struggle guarding Zeke. Just gotta keep them off the offensive boards. USC got waaaaaay too many second chances.

Beyond that, here's how I think the remaining reg season games will go:

@Cal (W)
@Stanford (W)
OSU (W)
ORE (W)
@USC (L)
@UCLA (W)
WSU (W)
UW (W)

I think we lose 2 more. Split road games v usc and tree and prob lose in conf tourney. Or lose both and win tourney.

That’s 26-8 and prob a 4 seed. Whether it’s out west or not likely depends on where Oregon finishes.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:37 pm

Good stuff ZG, thanks for the breakdown!

MountainCat · Post by **MountainCat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:43 pm

PennZona20 wrote:
...That’s 26-8 and prob a 4 seed....

Starting to sound more like the '97 Cats...

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:40 pm

MountainCat wrote:
PennZona20 wrote:
...That’s 26-8 and prob a 4 seed....
Starting to sound more like the '97 Cats...

I thought we promised each other we weren’t going to do that anymore.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:58 am

NCAA TOP 16 is out......AZ not in it

Oregon is the only PAC12 team represented........4 seed in the West

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com ... right-now/" target="_blank

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:58 am

dmjcat wrote:NCAA TOP 16 is out......AZ not in it

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com ... right-now/" target="_blank

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:00 am

They have as a #6 right now.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:18 am

Wasn't that long ago when the UA was in trouble of not making the tourney at all, so I will take it. Still not convinced they will make it out of the first weekend.

Just quit blowing leads.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:43 am

I’m ok with Arizona not being top-16.

I’m NOT ok with Michigan State being included.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:54 am

Chicat wrote:I’m ok with Arizona not being top-16.

I’m NOT ok with Michigan State being included.

Yeah... it's hard to get a grasp of these Big 10 teams. I thought nobody eats their own like the Pac 12... but the Big 10 teams are just killing each other.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:59 am

Alieberman wrote:
Chicat wrote:I’m ok with Arizona not being top-16.

I’m NOT ok with Michigan State being included.
Yeah... it's hard to get a grasp of these Big 10 teams. I thought nobody eats their own like the Pac 12... but the Big 10 teams are just killing each other.

Well Sparty is getting whooped by unranked Michigan today so probably already out of the top 16.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:06 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:
Chicat wrote:I’m ok with Arizona not being top-16.

I’m NOT ok with Michigan State being included.
Yeah... it's hard to get a grasp of these Big 10 teams. I thought nobody eats their own like the Pac 12... but the Big 10 teams are just killing each other.
Well Sparty is getting whooped by unranked Michigan today so probably already out of the top 16.

Hilariously it is probably their win over then-ranked #12 Michigan that put them there in the first place.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:36 pm

Yea funny how they look at things. Our conference last place team is the only team to beat #1 and we thrashed the B1G leader

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:20 pm

Merkin wrote:Wasn't that long ago when the UA was in trouble of not making the tourney at all, so I will take it. Still not convinced they will make it out of the first weekend.

Just quit blowing leads.

Last season?

At no point this season have the Cats been anywhere close to the bubble

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:56 pm

PHXCATS wrote:
Merkin wrote:Wasn't that long ago when the UA was in trouble of not making the tourney at all, so I will take it. Still not convinced they will make it out of the first weekend.

Just quit blowing leads.
Last season?

At no point this season have the Cats been anywhere close to the bubble

Totally. Each week we add another good loss or two to our record cementing our status as a lock for a tourney bid.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:37 am

Arizona Wildcats

"Pencil this group in for a potential No. 6 seed," the Watch said with customary bravado when last we discussed Arizona. "All bets are off with this sporadically hapless group," the Watch now says with newfound concern regarding the Wildcats. Sean Miller's group went out and lost 65-52 at home to UCLA, adding to a growing body of work under the heading of weirdly troubling defeats. With losses to the non-tournament likes of St. John's, Oregon State and now the Bruins, the men from Tucson are looking more and more like a middle seed that will be feared by few.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... bble-years" target="_blank

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:06 pm

first, boy was I wrong and in that so disappointed.

Arizona will make the tournament barring a colossal collapse down the stretch, but is will be a middle(ish) seed in March, IMO ...and I can’t argue, as of Saturday strikes fear into few.

**two points from bumping the blowout loses thread

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:04 pm

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:08 pm

Bracket Matrix has us as a six seed right now.

http://bracketmatrix.com/" target="_blank

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:35 pm

ESPN has ASU listed as a play-in team right now.... everything is lining up perfectly!

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:06 pm

Alieberman wrote:ESPN has ASU listed as a play-in team right now.... everything is lining up perfectly!

Everything feels right with the world.

Have fun getting spanked by Rutgers, scummies...

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:15 pm

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:32 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:58 pm

AZ:

Oregon:

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:41 pm

Think our worst possible seed is 6, best is 4. I mean, if we run the table from here to Selection Sunday, maybe 3. Somebody get Nico some spinach.

Captain Obvious · Post by **Captain Obvious** » Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:57 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:
Merkin wrote:Wasn't that long ago when the UA was in trouble of not making the tourney at all, so I will take it. Still not convinced they will make it out of the first weekend.

Just quit blowing leads.
Last season?

At no point this season have the Cats been anywhere close to the bubble
Totally. Each week we add another good loss or two to our record cementing our status as a lock for a tourney bid.

Maybe the more we lose the higher seed we'll get! But then we'd be Duke.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:35 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:Think our worst possible seed is 6, best is 4. I mean, if we run the table from here to Selection Sunday, maybe 3. Somebody get Nico some spinach.

Our worst seed is a like play in 11 seed. If we collapse down the stretch and go like 1-6 and lose our first PAC 12 game we could still even miss the tournament.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:10 am

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:11 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Dosia · Post by **Dosia** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:17 am

ASUHATER! wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:Think our worst possible seed is 6, best is 4. I mean, if we run the table from here to Selection Sunday, maybe 3. Somebody get Nico some spinach.
Our worst seed is a like play in 11 seed. If we collapse down the stretch and go like 1-6 and lose our first PAC 12 game we could still even miss the tournament.

Well that is unrealistic so what is the point of even discussing it?

eoe · Post by **eoe** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:24 am

Dosia wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:Think our worst possible seed is 6, best is 4. I mean, if we run the table from here to Selection Sunday, maybe 3. Somebody get Nico some spinach.
Our worst seed is a like play in 11 seed. If we collapse down the stretch and go like 1-6 and lose our first PAC 12 game we could still even miss the tournament.
Well that is unrealistic so what is the point of even discussing it?

It's a fair correction to the previous post

We can certainly finish worse than a 6 seed, but beat Oregon and we'll be in a good spot with the last weekend at home vs the Washington schools

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:27 am

We are up to #7 in the NET rankings.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:35 am

Even with this handy dandy NCAA tweet I still don't understand NET rankings.

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