Longhorned wrote: I seriously doubt Sean Miller urged Nico to limit college to a year. He just had to accept it as a precondition he'd have never agreed with.
I think this is right. It was mutually understood when Nico committed that he'd be OAD. Say what you will about that strategy, but it's what Nico and his people decided to roll with. Sean has had no illusions about this. He said publicly during the season that Nico was OAD.
I wonder if Sean exercises greater caution with these "preconditions" going forward. It's one thing if it's Ayton. The only thing that could've kept Ayton from dominating from day one was an injury or an eligibility issue, both of which he was fortunately able to avoid. There's more risk with a player who doesn't really dominate physically. Nico has talent, but he's not a guy who can impose his will on a game. Not like Ayton. I guess with the best of the best 5-stars (Ayton, Zion, Bagley, Lonzo, Okafor), if one of these guys wants to come to AZ, Sean would have to consider it. These guys can single-handedly elevate a team's prospects, even in one season. But these guys are rare. Some years there aren't any. Nico and Josh are not in that group. Zeke is closer, but as good as he was this past season, was he Ayton-good? No way.
Another issue is that guys want to start their nba clock as soon ASAP.
Of course these guys are sure they will stick in the league.
But you start getting the better contracts after 3-4 years so they see the need to get to nba sooner thinking they will get to the higher contract at a younger age.
We know how that works out for most.
This is also what happens when you have to make such a life altering decision at around 18. We have experience to tell us he should probably stay, but Nico probably thinks he's different from others and he'll be the one to make it big.
I hope he proves me wrong, but I just don't see him having a very successful and long lasting NBA career.
“The reality is that the hardest games to win are over teams on their home court. Teams that don’t play those games can spin it however they want, but what they’re saying is, ‘We don’t want to lose in our non conference season.’" - Sean Miller
Just start making a list of guys who are already in the NBA, or will soon be, who you expect to be better than Nico three years from now, provided they’re healthy. List gets pretty long, pretty quickly. He’s a backup PG at best. Imagine him trying to guard CP3, Westbrook, Steph, Lillard, Kyrie, Wall, Kemba...no chance.
So, is there any evidence that any top schools backed off his recruitment because of his unwavering commitment to OAD?
I guess another way of framing this would be: Was his freshman year performance a shock to everyone? Or had doubts been expressed by others in advance?
“If you have the choice between humble and cocky, go with cocky. There's always time to be humble later, once you've been proven horrendously, irrevocably wrong.”
pc in NM wrote:So, is there any evidence that any top schools backed off his recruitment because of his unwavering commitment to OAD?
I guess another way of framing this would be: Was his freshman year performance a shock to everyone? Or had doubts been expressed by others in advance?
Beachcat97 wrote:Just start making a list of guys who are already in the NBA, or will soon be, who you expect to be better than Nico three years from now, provided they’re healthy. List gets pretty long, pretty quickly. He’s a backup PG at best. Imagine him trying to guard CP3, Westbrook, Steph, Lillard, Kyrie, Wall, Kemba...no chance.
I'd like to see TJ and Nico go one on one since they have similar builds (e.g. alligator arms). Nico may be slightly more athletic with better hops and a quicker first step, but TJ is smarter, tons more experience, a much better defender and is in better shape.
pc in NM wrote:So, is there any evidence that any top schools backed off his recruitment because of his unwavering commitment to OAD?
I guess another way of framing this would be: Was his freshman year performance a shock to everyone? Or had doubts been expressed by others in advance?
That's a great question so I'm going to do that annoying thing where I don't know and will respond to a different question than you're asking, and with the knowledge coming only from watching recruiting and picking up cues from people on message boards who have insider knowledge.
Programs back off recruits for multiple reasons. Evaluations for individual players are all over the map for individual players because it's an art that nobody is truly good at, though some are better than others. Sometimes consistency coheres around individual players because they're Moses Malone, Darryl Dawkins, Jason Kidd, Kobe, Lebron, etc. And sometimes evaluation can be corrupted: Scouts you've never heard of and who have never even played the game only make so much money over the table, but their star rankings carry enormous impacts in positioning players surrounded by parties interested in young men potentially on their way toward making shoe money and stuffing agents' pockets. Not knowing anything, but remembering how it was common knowledge Nico was OAD, I'd guess that limited his value.
pc in NM wrote:So, is there any evidence that any top schools backed off his recruitment because of his unwavering commitment to OAD?
I guess another way of framing this would be: Was his freshman year performance a shock to everyone? Or had doubts been expressed by others in advance?
He had offers from Duke and Villanova.
An "offer" isn't an offer in the sense of an offer of a scholarship in exchange for playing basketball. It's more like a miniature Valentines Day card, which carries no extension of interest, but allows children to show that their baskets are filled with more cards than your basket is. Every once in while, a misguided player actually accepts an offer, which shocks the offering party and results in embarrassing and difficult behind-the-scenes conversations, and also 1) ironing out of the confusion on the part of the real recruits slotted for a given role now accepted by somebody who said "yes" to an "offer", and 2) the accepting player backing out and attending college elsewhere.
Beachcat97 wrote:Just start making a list of guys who are already in the NBA, or will soon be, who you expect to be better than Nico three years from now, provided they’re healthy. List gets pretty long, pretty quickly. He’s a backup PG at best. Imagine him trying to guard CP3, Westbrook, Steph, Lillard, Kyrie, Wall, Kemba...no chance.
I'd like to see TJ and Nico go one on one since they have similar builds (e.g. alligator arms). Nico may be slightly more athletic with better hops and a quicker first step, but TJ is smarter, tons more experience, a much better defender and is in better shape.
And 9 fucking years older than Nico
My lord at these terrible takes. Comparing Mannion as a college freshman to seasoned and experienced NBA veterans. Kemba Walker wasn't the same player as a freshman at UConn as he is now, not sure why that has to be said out loud....but it does
No one expects anyone outside the top 3-4 guys to come in and dominate. The goal is to end up in a backup role learning to mesh and play at a high level, so that by year 3 you can prove your worth and potential before going into your first long-term contract deal
All team Pac-12 player as a freshman, 14 ppg/5 apg (#1 among all freshman playing high major)
Beachcat97 wrote:Just start making a list of guys who are already in the NBA, or will soon be, who you expect to be better than Nico three years from now, provided they’re healthy. List gets pretty long, pretty quickly. He’s a backup PG at best. Imagine him trying to guard CP3, Westbrook, Steph, Lillard, Kyrie, Wall, Kemba...no chance.
I'd like to see TJ and Nico go one on one since they have similar builds (e.g. alligator arms). Nico may be slightly more athletic with better hops and a quicker first step, but TJ is smarter, tons more experience, a much better defender and is in better shape.
And 9 fucking years older than Nico
My lord at these terrible takes. Comparing Mannion as a college freshman to seasoned and experienced NBA veterans. Kemba Walker wasn't the same player as a freshman at UConn as he is now, not sure why that has to be said out loud....but it does
No one expects anyone outside the top 3-4 guys to come in and dominate. The goal is to end up in a backup role learning to mesh and play at a high level, so that by year 3 you can prove your worth and potential before going into your first long-term contract deal
All team Pac-12 player as a freshman, 14 ppg/5 apg (#1 among all freshman playing high major)
Any pre-committed OAD like Mannion is NOT a college "freshman" anymore! They ALL would be pros if the NBA allowed!!!
Now, really exceptionally-performing college freshman who become OAD's are another story!!
“If you have the choice between humble and cocky, go with cocky. There's always time to be humble later, once you've been proven horrendously, irrevocably wrong.”
Beachcat97 wrote:Just start making a list of guys who are already in the NBA, or will soon be, who you expect to be better than Nico three years from now, provided they’re healthy. List gets pretty long, pretty quickly. He’s a backup PG at best. Imagine him trying to guard CP3, Westbrook, Steph, Lillard, Kyrie, Wall, Kemba...no chance.
I'd like to see TJ and Nico go one on one since they have similar builds (e.g. alligator arms). Nico may be slightly more athletic with better hops and a quicker first step, but TJ is smarter, tons more experience, a much better defender and is in better shape.
And 9 fucking years older than Nico
My lord at these terrible takes. Comparing Mannion as a college freshman to seasoned and experienced NBA veterans. Kemba Walker wasn't the same player as a freshman at UConn as he is now, not sure why that has to be said out loud....but it does
No one expects anyone outside the top 3-4 guys to come in and dominate. The goal is to end up in a backup role learning to mesh and play at a high level, so that by year 3 you can prove your worth and potential before going into your first long-term contract deal
All team Pac-12 player as a freshman, 14 ppg/5 apg (#1 among all freshman playing high major)
Has that goal worked out for any PG's who left early and were not ready for the NBA and were selected in 20 - 50 range in the draft? I can not think of one, that is the point people are making. Coming back seems like it would have been the smart choice, but it is what it is at this point. Sean calling him out all season as a OAD didn't really help his need to be stubborn and leave before he was ready. The silver lining is that if the NBA does not work out he is more prepared for a Euro career than a lot of other guys. I am sure a small part of that played in to his decision to leave before he was ready.
pc in NM wrote:
Any pre-committed OAD like Mannion is NOT a college "freshman" anymore! They ALL would be pros if the NBA allowed!!!
Now, really exceptionally-performing college freshman who become OAD's are another story!!
My recommendation - pull up 2019's draft class, count for me how many FIRST rounders:
1. Started for their team
2. Averaged more than 6-7 PPG
3. Played in more than half of their teams games
And that draft class is significantly better than this year's.
It's very obvious who watches the NBA and who doesn't
Last edited by eoe on Fri May 01, 2020 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Merkin wrote:
My lord at these terrible takes. Comparing Mannion as a college freshman to seasoned and experienced NBA veterans. Kemba Walker wasn't the same player as a freshman at UConn as he is now, not sure why that has to be said out loud....but it does
No one expects anyone outside the top 3-4 guys to come in and dominate. The goal is to end up in a backup role learning to mesh and play at a high level, so that by year 3 you can prove your worth and potential before going into your first long-term contract deal
Were you thinking Nico would be asked to use a time machine to travel back and guard Kemba as a freshman at UConn? The age difference doesn't matter because they'll both be in the same league, playing at the same level.
How likely is it that Nico would actually guard Kemba next year? Not very. But Nico remains projected by some as a lotto pick. Lotto picks are often expected to contribute from day one.
And let's just say it's three years from now. That's a long way's off, but I still wonder how many top flight PGs Nico would be ready to guard by that point. Guess we'll see.
Beachcat97 wrote:
Were you thinking Nico would be asked to use a time machine to travel back and guard Kemba as a freshman at UConn? The age difference doesn't matter because they'll both be in the same league, playing at the same level.
How likely is it that Nico would actually guard Kemba next year? Not very. But Nico remains projected by some as a lotto pick. Lotto picks are often expected to contribute from day one.
And let's just say it's three years from now. That's a long way's off, but I still wonder how many top flight PGs Nico would be ready to guard by that point. Guess we'll see.
Were you thinking Nico's success would be measured by how well he can guard All-Star NBA players as a rookie? That's my point exactly. Nico doesn't have to outclass those guys ahead of him to earn a nice contract, he needs to be better than the players in his draft class and the ones that come after him because that's who he'll be competing with for time and opportunities to grow. You're looking at it completely wrong.
Here's my burning question: the scouting and reports around him called to mind Lonzo and Jason Kidd. Was there a drastic mis-evaluation, or was there something about him that just didn't live up to it and translate from high school?
As has been mentioned, the Illinois game seemed to be a harbinger of those great things, but then he regressed. Maybe some disinterest, especially later in the season? Big struggles in big games (Baylor, Gonzaga). The end of Oregon #2. The terrible shot selection throughout the year. Just so many things.
And a note, I do not at all mean this as a slight at those here who brought insight before he arrived (especially 97). I appreciate the hell out of all insight from everyone, and I think we could all see flashes of that potential at various times. He just seemed so puzzling at times.
He will be fighting for those minutes and contracts as a backup PG with guys like TJ McConnell. How long do guys who are unable to contribute stay in the League? How many get that second contract? I highly doubt he is going to be a high pick so wherever he ends up, that team will have very little investment in him and those veteran guards aren't going to be taking him under their wing. They are looking out for their own pockets. The NBA is a business that will chew up and spit out any one who is not prepared for the rigors that come with it. This guys leaving before their ready thing is a new phenomenon and we do not know the real effects to date. I am curious to see how people like Kobi Simmons, Jaylen Hands, Nico, Frank Jackson and the like last.
prh wrote:Here's my burning question: the scouting and reports around him called to mind Lonzo and Jason Kidd. Was there a drastic mis-evaluation, or was there something about him that just didn't live up to it and translate from high school?
As has been mentioned, the Illinois game seemed to be a harbinger of those great things, but then he regressed. Maybe some disinterest, especially later in the season? Big struggles in big games (Baylor, Gonzaga). The end of Oregon #2. The terrible shot selection throughout the year. Just so many things.
And a note, I do not at all mean this as a slight at those here who brought insight before he arrived (especially 97). I appreciate the hell out of all insight from everyone, and I think we could all see flashes of that potential at various times. He just seemed so puzzling at times.
Idk if this was widely reported, but he did have recurring lower back spasms and pains that left some tenderness. Eased up later on in the season, but he was definitely playing through injury for a good period of time
so its a durability issue, i can buy that...even more reason to stay an additional summer and full season, mature and learn how to navigate the grind (albeit on a smaller scale) and supports a big part of my original opinion - his strength and fitness isnt at an NBA level, hell it wasnt even at a division 1 power 6 collegian level.
Nov 6, 2019 thru March 12, 2020 Mannion played 32 forty minute games for Arizona.
during that same period the New York Knicks played 59 forty-eight minute games.
97cats wrote:Jason Kidd still might be the greatest high school player ive ever seen in person.
Elton Brand for me.
He DESTROYED my high school basketball team. Like, it could have been all of us vs. just him and he would have won by 15.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
The best high school basketball player I've ever seen in person was Kevin Minnifield. There are so few future D1 (let alone NBA) players in high school that most high school students never even see one play.
Channing Frye for me. He was a man among boys in my team's region. Lawrence Hill was a close second a few years later. Nobody else needed to even score on the nights I saw them.
84Cat wrote:Fat Lever was the best player from Tucson in my era. He was pretty much unstoppable in HS
He was one of our coaches at basketball camp in Coolidge. An earnest and kind grown man, like an unfunny Steven Colbert. Hard to believe he was just a college kid at the time.
Got the LeBron treatment during camp in HS and Travis Walton (Michigan State; 2 FFs) on the road against Lima Senior amongst many others. Mainly played against dudes who went to Ohio State. Also saw Bron win state as a Junior.
"Plus, why would I go to the NBA? Duke players suck in the pros."
I'm glad we're not going after any OAD this year, because this draft is probably going to be pretty embarrassing for us.
“The reality is that the hardest games to win are over teams on their home court. Teams that don’t play those games can spin it however they want, but what they’re saying is, ‘We don’t want to lose in our non conference season.’" - Sean Miller
TucsonClip wrote:Got the LeBron treatment during camp in HS and Travis Walton (Michigan State; 2 FFs) on the road against Lima Senior amongst many others. Mainly played against dudes who went to Ohio State. Also saw Bron win state as a Junior.
Year after i graduated i went to see my high school squad (small school in Nothern panhandle of WV) play in a tourney in Ohio. After our team played we were getting ready to leave and the place had racks of ppl flooding in. Kid a row down said “where are u going u won’t get ur seat back if u go get food now” , i said i was leaving he said you know the best HS b-ball player in the country is playing next and he’s only a sophomore ..... me and my buddy sat back down and needless to say Lebron is the best player in HS i ever saw as well. He did the between the legs, caught two off the board on breaks , and had 11!!!! Steals in a hs game along w a quad double in a game where his team scored like 70 points. It was the most ridiculous thing i have ever seen in a HS gym.
I knew that night that this dude was going down as one of the top 5-10 basketball players to ever live.
Just to add to that story , i had been to a few nba games so i understood the speed and incredible abilities of pros live at that time, and i can say without any exaggeration that Lebron could’ve at least come off the bench in the nba as a sophomore in HS and average at least 5-8ppg, he was that grown at 16 yrs old.
He had no polish to his O game, no real moves or anything so once teams had a scouting report on him he would basically be a non-factor in the half court obviously but he was as fast and athletic as any NBA SF at that time and almost as big.
One more thing lol, the second thing that jumped out (besides his obvious size and strength and athletic ability for a 16 yr old), was his hoop iq was incredible already. It was half the reason he had so many steals, you could see him seeing plays develop before they happened, his rotations on D (when he felt like it) were like a seasoned vet as well. This anticipatory innate hoop iq allowed most of his i believe 12 assists to be of the highlight variety as well.
Sorry for all the posts but when i think back to how much my mind was blown by a high school sophomore at that time (winter 2000-01 i believe) i still shake my head.
TucsonClip wrote:Got the LeBron treatment during camp in HS and Travis Walton (Michigan State; 2 FFs) on the road against Lima Senior amongst many others. Mainly played against dudes who went to Ohio State. Also saw Bron win state as a Junior.
Year after i graduated i went to see my high school squad (small school in Nothern panhandle of WV) play in a tourney in Ohio. After our team played we were getting ready to leave and the place had racks of ppl flooding in. Kid a row down said “where are u going u won’t get ur seat back if u go get food now” , i said i was leaving he said you know the best HS b-ball player in the country is playing next and he’s only a sophomore ..... me and my buddy sat back down and needless to say Lebron is the best player in HS i ever saw as well. He did the between the legs, caught two off the board on breaks , and had 11!!!! Steals in a hs game along w a quad double in a game where his team scored like 70 points. It was the most ridiculous thing i have ever seen in a HS gym.
I knew that night that this dude was going down as one of the top 5-10 basketball players to ever live.
I remember them moving a few of SVSM games, especially regionals to larger sites in order to meet the ticket demands. Believe a few games were move to Akrons arena and definitely regionals were moved to Toledo's to accommodate.
Dude was on an entirely different level in HS, not to mention he played with dudes like Romeo Travis, Drew Joyce III, Sian Cotton.
"Plus, why would I go to the NBA? Duke players suck in the pros."
Ya 99% sure the mini tourney series was in Akron that night actually. Not even sure how our team got into it lol. We got crushed and the year before we didn’t play on any Ohio tournies so not even sure why we were there. I just remembered a few of the guys who graduated year before were home on Xmas or thanksgiving break from college and we decided to go for something to do since we were close w some of the kids the next class down. Turned out to be a great decision despite fact my alma mater was run out the gym lol.
Greg Goorjian - in 1978 he averaged 43 points a game for Crescenta Valley in SoCal. Notable because virtually all of his buckets were from the outside and there was no 3-point shot at that time.
catgrad97 wrote:Channing Frye for me. He was a man among boys in my team's region. Lawrence Hill was a close second a few years later. Nobody else needed to even score on the nights I saw them.
Harper Kamp dominated Lawrence Hill so did Lee Cummard. Lawrence Hill was a better college player that high school imo. He was over shadowed by Joey Shaw and Christian Polk.
Harper Kamp, Mickey McConnell, and Jerryd Bayless dominated in Az my high school years. Harper won 3 straight state titles. Bayless had 3 final 4s and two runner ups. McConnell made 2 final 4s and was WCC player of the hear his sr season of college and made an epic sweet 16 run hitting the go ahead 3 to upset number 1 seed Villanova his jr year. Those three were the most dominant I saw and played against.
catgrad97 wrote:Channing Frye for me. He was a man among boys in my team's region. Lawrence Hill was a close second a few years later. Nobody else needed to even score on the nights I saw them.
Harper Kamp dominated Lawrence Hill so did Lee Cummard. Lawrence Hill was a better college player that high school imo. He was over shadowed by Joey Shaw and Christian Polk.
Harper Kamp, Mickey McConnell, and Jerryd Bayless dominated in Az my high school years. Harper won 3 straight state titles. Bayless had 3 final 4s and two runner ups. McConnell made 2 final 4s and was WCC player of the hear his sr season of college and made an epic sweet 16 run hitting the go ahead 3 to upset number 1 seed Villanova his jr year. Those three were the most dominant I saw and played against.
Ah Lee Cummard. I was a senior at Mesa HS the year that Cummard led us to the state title against Desert Vista. He did end up being a starter at BYU in like 2008 and theres been a lot of better players but that year at Mesa he was darn near unstoppable.
i was going to put the ua/asu records here...but i forgot what they were.
