Tommy Lloyd

[Chicat]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

[Spaceman Spiff]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

100%.

It's one or the other. Either we hold him to a standard of roughly the same as we would have held Miller to, or we basically admit we downgraded and/or Lloyd isn't ready to be a HC.

I'm not even really claiming it has to be something specific. Things like Pac strength, injuries, etc. influence what is expected. But if he doesn't give us something similar to what you think Miller would have done, what that means is obvious.

Akinjo is a good player, but he was testing the waters before Miller was fired and is only one player. I don't mean it as a shot at Akinjo, but he isn't a "how can you possibly replace that guy" guy.

This is particularly so when Lloyd inherited a Murphy run recruitment of Tyty and an unprecedented number of immediately eligible transfer options. Losing only one guy in that scenario isn't an impossible obstacle, it's the obstacle Lloyd is paid to overcome.

It's just weird to hear saying you expect the same as Lloyd as you did of Miller is "raising expectations." They're literally the same expectations.

[Basketcats]

Expectations really shouldn't matter at this point. I agree, BBTL (Bobby's Boy Tommy Lloyd) has been given the keys to the Ferrari and should be able to put together a decent team/season, however, I can also see the flip side of it all. The guys have a new system to learn and with that new roles to play. Chemistry issues may develop. So, training wheel mode maybe necessary the first season only.

Either way, Bobby's Boys (BBJF and BBTL) are going nowhere for at least 3 or 4 years. I just hope and pray that something good comes from all this mess (dismissing of Robbins and Heeke or successful football and basketball seasons). In the meantime, I am just going to sit back, watch the burning ship and see just how close to the edge it gets without falling over.

[Chicat]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

100%.

It's one or the other. Either we hold him to a standard of roughly the same as we would have held Miller to, or we basically admit we downgraded and/or Lloyd isn't ready to be a HC.

I'm not even really claiming it has to be something specific. Things like Pac strength, injuries, etc. influence what is expected. But if he doesn't give us something similar to what you think Miller would have done, what that means is obvious.

Akinjo is a good player, but he was testing the waters before Miller was fired and is only one player. I don't mean it as a shot at Akinjo, but he isn't a "how can you possibly replace that guy" guy.

This is particularly so when Lloyd inherited a Murphy run recruitment of Tyty and an unprecedented number of immediately eligible transfer options. Losing only one guy in that scenario isn't an impossible obstacle, it's the obstacle Lloyd is paid to overcome.

It's just weird to hear saying you expect the same as Lloyd as you did of Miller is "raising expectations." They're literally the same expectations.

Absolutely.

In fact, I'm guilty of decreased expectations. In an earlier post I said I want to see Tommy finish in the top 4 of the conference standings and earn a 6 seed or better, but just now I said my expectations for Miller were competing for a conference championship and a 4 seed or higher.

You Lloyd fans should be furious that I would downgrade your boy like that. I mean, good enough to replace Miller, good enough to get the same expectations going into next year, right?

[zonagrad]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

Yep. This is pretty much where I'm at. If there were roster defections because of the coaching change, then Lloyd gets a pass for the first year and we see what kind of growth and improvement there is. The worst case scenario by firing Miller was an absolute total rebuild. That's obviously not happening because a) Miller had a very good roster in place AND b) Lloyd has been able to maintain that roster except for Akinjo -- and Lloyd may be able to upgrade the point position with TyTy Washington. If Arizona gets the top point guard recruit for next season, why would Lloyd get a pass on next season?

The message boards should be great fun next March if Lloyd gets a decent seed and then gets upset in the first round. What will all the Miller critics say?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Absolutely.

In fact, I'm guilty of decreased expectations. In an earlier post I said I want to see Tommy finish in the top 4 of the conference standings and earn a 6 seed or better, but just now I said my expectations for Miller were competing for a conference championship and a 4 seed or higher.

You Lloyd fans should be furious that I would downgrade your boy like that. I mean, good enough to replace Miller, good enough to get the same expectations going into next year, right?

I feel like I'm trying to be reasonable and flexible by saying he needs to be around where Miller would have been. I'm not going to **** a brick and get mad if I think Miller would have been #15 and it is actually #19 under Lloyd.

There are reasonable individual variations. If Benn goes cold and shoots horribly for a 4-5 game stretch, that happens.

I don't get the logic that Lloyd is worthy of hiring at a top ten job, but it's also unfair to expect he will produce the same basic kind of season as the guy who was fired to bring him in. That sounds like the logic when someone leaves a collapsing roster or replacing a midmajor coach who leaves for greener pastures.

I remember March when the logic was if Miller continued into 21-22, he needed a top 15-20 season to survive. Are people ready to throw that expectation out?

[AzCatFan2]

Lute often said the best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores. The modern college basketball game is different, as many of these kids are bouncing balls all year round, and have played a ton of minutes already before stepping on campus. But that doesn't negate the fact that we have a bunch of freshmen like Tubelis, Keriisa, Mathurin, and Terry that should all be improved as sophomores. I'd argue a guy like Koloko will also be better, because COVID took away a year of development with limited weight room time and practice. And this team, with the core of youngsters, including Brown and Akinjo, were a bubble team this year. A step forward to being a top 4 PAC and battling for a protected seed, with a Sweet 16 appearance at least were the expectations before Miller was fired.

Hiring Lloyd didn't raise my expectations at all. Akinjo was testing the NBA waters before, but I believe he would have stayed in Tucson had Miller been retained. And as of today, the additions to the roster don't make up for the loss of the best player we had last year, who was also our PG, and made the team go. If say, we struggle as a bubble team next year and Akinjo leads Baylor to another Final Four, it's more than fair to ask what might have been had Miller not been let go.

Contending for a PAC-12 Title, winning in Vegas, and getting a top 4 Tournament seed are the expectations for Arizona Basketball. The reason many of us were upset Miller was let go is because we felt he was leading the team back to meeting these expectations, and didn't get the chance to finish what he was rebuilding. Now Lloyd is inheriting many of the same pieces, and heck, even two of the same assistants, If we don't live up to expectations next year, it's going to be a touch pill to swallow. If we don't live up to expectations by Lloyd's third year, then what?

[Spaceman Spiff]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

Yep. This is pretty much where I'm at. If there were roster defections because of the coaching change, then Lloyd gets a pass for the first year and we see what kind of growth and improvement there is. The worst case scenario by firing Miller was an absolute total rebuild. That's obviously not happening because a) Miller had a very good roster in place AND b) Lloyd has been able to maintain that roster except for Akinjo -- and Lloyd may be able to upgrade the point position with TyTy Washington. If Arizona gets the top point guard recruit for next season, why would Lloyd get a pass on next season?

The message boards should be great fun next March if Lloyd gets a decent seed and then gets upset in the first round. What will all the Miller critics say?

It's also just a function of the fact at Arizona, we expect good. Lloyd retaining the roster is good work, but I hesitate to label it as exceeding what we expect, because I do expect good.

Sean Miller was good. He recruited talent, won a fair amount and had us in a good place entering 21-22. I expect Lloyd to deliver good as well.

His tasks are different than SM's would have been, but I struggle for why we shouldn't want his competence and performance comparable to Miller initially.

Down the road, I think you want his performance to exceed Miller's if the idea is that the firing wasn't a mistake. Meaning, he keeps us on the current path and builds to things like Final Fours in a few years.

[DrWildcat]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

Yep. This is pretty much where I'm at. If there were roster defections because of the coaching change, then Lloyd gets a pass for the first year and we see what kind of growth and improvement there is. The worst case scenario by firing Miller was an absolute total rebuild. That's obviously not happening because a) Miller had a very good roster in place AND b) Lloyd has been able to maintain that roster except for Akinjo -- and Lloyd may be able to upgrade the point position with TyTy Washington. If Arizona gets the top point guard recruit for next season, why would Lloyd get a pass on next season?

The message boards should be great fun next March if Lloyd gets a decent seed and then gets upset in the first round. What will all the Miller critics say?

I think they might say we could have kept Miller if we wanted to be disappointed with the way the season ended.

[Alieberman]

Let's not make this more complicated than it needs to be.

Last year, under Miller, we beat NAU by 43.

This year, under Lloyd, we need to beat NAU by 43 or greater, or else he's a disappointment and should be fired on the spot.

[Longhorned]

Sign me up for ending this conversation with the NAU contest.

[SCCats]

Tommy! Tommy! Tommy!!

[Postmaster]

I’m planning on year two and three being down years due to more sanctions.
Even if we don’t get a post season ban I still expect scholarship reductions and maybe recruiting limits.

I’d love to see Robbins and Heeke get suspended for their part in allegations.

[EastCoastCat]

The expectations for Coach Tommy Lloyd were commensurate with our previous coach and pre-season polls, and then the UA President got involved.

Oh, wait...never mind.

[AzCatFan2]

Any sanctions that come down from the IARP won't likely happen until, at the very least, this next season is all but over. We'll be given the opportunity to either accept them for next season, or have them start in 2022-23. Given we'll likely have a full scholarship roster of 13, even if we lose 2 the next year, we should be OK. There will be scholarship players on the roster that will be projects next year.

Of course, if we get hammered by the IARP, sure, it will temper expectations. But if the punishment is 1 year post-season ban and say 3 scholarship losses over 2 years, that's a wrist slap. And shouldn't temper anything.

[azgreg]

So.....hoping for a nice CIB invitation is aiming too low then?

[Alieberman]

So.....hoping for a nice CIB invitation is aiming too low then?

I don't know.... Did Miller receive a CIB invitation last year?

[UAEebs86]

So.....hoping for a nice CIB invitation is aiming too low then?

I don't know.... Did Miller receive a CIB invitation last year?

Arizona was going to get some kind of tournament invite, and then the UofA President got involved.

[Spaceman Spiff]

So.....hoping for a nice CIB invitation is aiming too low then?

I don't know.... Did Miller receive a CIB invitation last year?

It was going to be hard for him to get a Combat Infantryman Badge as a college basketball coach.

Or are you wondering if he got invited to Nepal's national investigation agency? I'm not sure it's fair to ding him for that.

[YoDeFoe]

In fact, I'm guilty of decreased expectations. In an earlier post I said I want to see Tommy finish in the top 4 of the conference standings and earn a 6 seed or better, but just now I said my expectations for Miller were competing for a conference championship and a 4 seed or higher.

You Lloyd fans should be furious that I would downgrade your boy like that. I mean, good enough to replace Miller, good enough to get the same expectations going into next year, right?

This is about where I'm at as well: Be in the top 25 nationally, top 4 in the conference, and 6 seed in the tournament (and make it out of the first weekend). That would be a successful first season for Tommy, to me.

But that's about what my expectations were for Miller this season. That might just be a result of three straight tough seasons, but I'd lost the fighting spirit to say we were definitely going to crush it next year.

When those "Arizona will be a top 15 team next season" projections came out, I felt like an ugly dude getting hit on by a pretty girl - "Thanks, lovely compliment, but let's not kid ourselves."

[U.P. Zona Fan]

All it took for our expectations to go up was a coaching change.

Our expectations for this team under Miller next year were to compete for a conference championship and to achieve a top 4 seed.

No one is demanding Tommy do better than that.

Some people expect very little drop off since he is supposedly Miller’s equal or even an upgrade. Others want everyone to know he's still got his training wheels on. Which to me means he’s not Miller’s equal, and he’s certainly not an upgrade.

You guys are cool with this? If so, that reflects your decreased expectations, not that mine have increased.

From this year I really want to see, a mostly retained roster and appropriate replacements for those that leave.

Remember how ucla was after they hired mick? They took a while to get going and lost guys and didn't have buy in right away. I think we are already in a better spot than ucla was part way through the season.

I want to see the guys play hard early, as hard as they did last year, I want to see that they will go to war with CTL and not give up especially against high level competition. That is a real sign that coach is getting buy in from the players. Looking forward to hopefully michigan game and man I'd love to see them play the zags.

I want to see improvement over the year and can't wait to see what clip has to say about how we are progressing.

I'm almost always optimistic, I think we'll get off to a better start than ucla and mick, I would love a final four next year.

[HiCat]

Wildcat Breakdown: The Tommy Lloyd era begins
April 28, 2021

https://kvoa.com/sports/2021/04/28/wild ... asketball/

"I put my time in.."
Coach Tommy's a likeable guy. Seems genuine, comes across well..friendly, not arrogant.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Remember how ucla was after they hired mick? They took a while to get going and lost guys and didn't have buy in right away. I think we are already in a better spot than ucla was part way through the season.

I want to see the guys play hard early, as hard as they did last year, I want to see that they will go to war with CTL and not give up especially against high level competition. That is a real sign that coach is getting buy in from the players. Looking forward to hopefully michigan game and man I'd love to see them play the zags.

I want to see improvement over the year and can't wait to see what clip has to say about how we are progressing.

I'm almost always optimistic, I think we'll get off to a better start than ucla and mick, I would love a final four next year.

I'd seriously hope we're better than UCLA when Cronin took over. If Lloyd is anywhere close to that, it's a massive disappointment.

UCLA was coming off a 17-16 season and lost 4 of their top 5 scorers going into Cronin's first year. We could have returned 7 of the top 9 scorers from a 17-9 team. Even losing Akinjo, it's still 6 of the top 9 returning.

We set up much better than UCLA for immediate success.

[Beachcat97]

Remember how ucla was after they hired mick? They took a while to get going and lost guys and didn't have buy in right away. I think we are already in a better spot than ucla was part way through the season.

I want to see the guys play hard early, as hard as they did last year, I want to see that they will go to war with CTL and not give up especially against high level competition. That is a real sign that coach is getting buy in from the players. Looking forward to hopefully michigan game and man I'd love to see them play the zags.

I want to see improvement over the year and can't wait to see what clip has to say about how we are progressing.

I'm almost always optimistic, I think we'll get off to a better start than ucla and mick, I would love a final four next year.

I'd seriously hope we're better than UCLA when Cronin took over. If Lloyd is anywhere close to that, it's a massive disappointment.

UCLA was coming off a 17-16 season and lost 4 of their top 5 scorers going into Cronin's first year. We could have returned 7 of the top 9 scorers from a 17-9 team. Even losing Akinjo, it's still 6 of the top 9 returning.

We set up much better than UCLA for immediate success.

Okay, I'll just say it. How many years had Cronin been a head coach at other schools before being hired at UCLA? Maybe it doesn't matter, but I think a better comparison may be Steve Lavin, who, like Lloyd, had never been a HC before. Lavin actually did much better than Cronin in his first season, arguably because he inherited a team only a couple years removed from a national title. I really don't think our roster next season is on par with what UCLA had in 1996-97, but feel free to change my mind.

[threenumberones]

For me year one is about optics and trajectory. Especially in recruiting. Too many moving parts and inertia to gain to bring hard targets imo. Building a program for sustainable success requires that foundation in so many ways..it doesn't just happen.

And also I'd say yr1 success also doesn't necessarily do anything to predict what yr5 will look like. Just like a middle of the Pac team next year wouldn't spell doom.

So he gets a yr1 pass from me. Man I've gone soft lol

[Spaceman Spiff]

Remember how ucla was after they hired mick? They took a while to get going and lost guys and didn't have buy in right away. I think we are already in a better spot than ucla was part way through the season.

I want to see the guys play hard early, as hard as they did last year, I want to see that they will go to war with CTL and not give up especially against high level competition. That is a real sign that coach is getting buy in from the players. Looking forward to hopefully michigan game and man I'd love to see them play the zags.

I want to see improvement over the year and can't wait to see what clip has to say about how we are progressing.

I'm almost always optimistic, I think we'll get off to a better start than ucla and mick, I would love a final four next year.

I'd seriously hope we're better than UCLA when Cronin took over. If Lloyd is anywhere close to that, it's a massive disappointment.

UCLA was coming off a 17-16 season and lost 4 of their top 5 scorers going into Cronin's first year. We could have returned 7 of the top 9 scorers from a 17-9 team. Even losing Akinjo, it's still 6 of the top 9 returning.

We set up much better than UCLA for immediate success.

Okay, I'll just say it. How many years had Cronin been a head coach at other schools before being hired at UCLA? Maybe it doesn't matter, but I think a better comparison may be Steve Lavin, who, like Lloyd, had never been a HC before. Lavin actually did much better than Cronin in his first season, arguably because he inherited a team only a couple years removed from a national title. I really don't think our roster next season is on par with what UCLA had in 1996-97, but feel free to change my mind.

This is the dynamic Chicat brought up.

If no prior HC experience is a huge handicap, why'd we hire this guy? If no HC experience makes it impossible to deliver on fairly reasonable expectations based on talent level, what was the point of this hire?

Or (and this is my view) Lloyd got hired because the thought is he has qualities that can offset the lack of experience. So, we should expect that.

Your Lavin example is solid for that second view. As is Michigan with Juwan. Beilein left along with the two top scorers. Juwan was solid his first year with the returning rotation guys and added to become very good in year 2.

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

[Beachcat97]

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

I'm perfectly comfortable with this expectation. Expecting more is setting yourself up for disappointment. We struggled to remain ranked last season, with most of the same roster.

If Lloyd finishes better than 4th in the Pac, reaches the tourney, and actually wins a game or two, I'll be very pleased with his first season.

[Spaceman Spiff]

For me year one is about optics and trajectory. Especially in recruiting. Too many moving parts and inertia to gain to bring hard targets imo. Building a program for sustainable success requires that foundation in so many ways..it doesn't just happen.

And also I'd say yr1 success also doesn't necessarily do anything to predict what yr5 will look like. Just like a middle of the Pac team next year wouldn't spell doom.

So he gets a yr1 pass from me. Man I've gone soft lol

Robert Robbins, is that you?

Just kidding. On the serious note, I do think you're going soft. We have a very good returning core, Lloyd inherited an assistant leading Tyty's recruitment, and there are a historic number of players in the transfer portal immediately eligible.

The raw materials are there. Yeah, there are challenges, but in high major ball with a 3 mil salary, you're expected to solve them.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

I'm perfectly comfortable with this expectation. Expecting more is setting yourself up for disappointment. We struggled to remain ranked last season, with most of the same roster.

If Lloyd finishes better than 4th in the Pac, reaches the tourney, and actually wins a game or two, I'll be very pleased with his first season.

It's a flexible bar for me. I mean, if (God forbid) Mathurin and Tubelis have season ending injuries in Game #2, that obviously changes where the bar is set.

Conversely, if we landed Tyty and a backup guard to fill the rotation out and have a healthy year, that's a Top 16/Sweet 16 talent level and I don't think it's unfair to expect Lloyd to pay that off with results.

[Beachcat97]

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

I'm perfectly comfortable with this expectation. Expecting more is setting yourself up for disappointment. We struggled to remain ranked last season, with most of the same roster.

If Lloyd finishes better than 4th in the Pac, reaches the tourney, and actually wins a game or two, I'll be very pleased with his first season.

It's a flexible bar for me. I mean, if (God forbid) Mathurin and Tubelis have season ending injuries in Game #2, that obviously changes where the bar is set.

Conversely, if we landed Tyty and a backup guard to fill the rotation out and have a healthy year, that's a Top 16/Sweet 16 talent level and I don't think it's unfair to expect Lloyd to pay that off with results.

I think I've underestimated the impact of landing Tyty. Prior to this month, I didn't realize he was a OAD-level player who could almost single-handedly elevate our prospects next season. Feels like we haven't had a guard like that in a while, and certainly not a point guard. Nobody better say Nico.

[gronk4heisman]

I will be content if after one year we compete in the Pac 12, make the tournament, win at least one game in that tournament, show we are growing, keeping core talent, players improving, etc. If that happens that will be an improvement of what we have seen 5 of the last 6 years. I expect some troubles out the gate as we learn new schemes and coaches and players get familiar with one another but I also expect the by the middle of conference season that most of those kinks will be worked out.

If they are not and we are out of the Pac 12 race and looking like a bubble team or worse, I will be very upset. I get this is a hire with a long term outlook, but poor short term results will make good long term results less likely.

[gronk4heisman]

I think I've underestimated the impact of landing Tyty. Prior to this month, I didn't realize he was a OAD-level player who could almost single-handedly elevate our prospects next season. Feels like we haven't had a guard like that in a while, and certainly not a point guard. Nobody better say Nico.

You have to say Nico, Nico was supposed to be that but you never know what you are getting until they get here. That is why building a strong core is so important.

[Beachcat97]

Nico is so interesting to me. I don't know whether his evaluations were off or if he was just immature, but he ended up bringing much less in his one year at AZ than many expected. Would he have done bigger things in a possible sophomore season? Probably, but who knows? Kerr has given him a chance with the Warriors, and since that team has injuries galore, Nico is probably getting more minutes as a rookie than some expected. He's not a trainwreck; he's just not the next-level player many had him pegged as.

Anyway, I couldn't tell you how Tyty's game and prospects compare to Nico's. In the footage I've seen, Tyty looks more athletic and seems to have better instincts on offense.

[RondaeShimmy]

I'm taking last year with a huge grain of salt.

The weird covid season that may skew our perceptions of things. Lots of weird things happened around the country that I don't think would happen the same in a normal season.

Hard to get transitive property from last year and say we have top 20 talent or team.

[YoDeFoe]

This is the dynamic Chicat brought up.

If no prior HC experience is a huge handicap, why'd we hire this guy? If no HC experience makes it impossible to deliver on fairly reasonable expectations based on talent level, what was the point of this hire?

Or (and this is my view) Lloyd got hired because the thought is he has qualities that can offset the lack of experience. So, we should expect that.

Your Lavin example is solid for that second view. As is Michigan with Juwan. Beilein left along with the two top scorers. Juwan was solid his first year with the returning rotation guys and added to become very good in year 2.

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

Worth noting on Michigan:

Beilein left after a 30-7 season where they went 15-5 in the B1G.
Howard went 19-12 and 10-10 in the B1G

Howard returned 53% of Beilein's minutes - Lloyd will return 58% of Miller's minutes if the roster holds.

Would 19-12 and finishing 9th in conference be a "solid first year" for Lloyd?

[Chicat]

For me year one is about optics and trajectory. Especially in recruiting. Too many moving parts and inertia to gain to bring hard targets imo. Building a program for sustainable success requires that foundation in so many ways..it doesn't just happen.

And also I'd say yr1 success also doesn't necessarily do anything to predict what yr5 will look like. Just like a middle of the Pac team next year wouldn't spell doom.

So he gets a yr1 pass from me. Man I've gone soft lol

[YoDeFoe]

Nico is so interesting to me. I don't know whether his evaluations were off or if he was just immature, but he ended up bringing much less in his one year at AZ than many expected. Would he have done bigger things in a possible sophomore season? Probably, but who knows? Kerr has given him a chance with the Warriors, and since that team has injuries galore, Nico is probably getting more minutes as a rookie than some expected. He's not a trainwreck; he's just not the next-level player many had him pegged as.

Anyway, I couldn't tell you how Tyty's game and prospects compare to Nico's. In the footage I've seen, Tyty looks more athletic and seems to have better instincts on offense.

Nico was that guy for Arizona until he injured his back in the Wooden Classic. After that his jump shot and floater never really seemed to recover.

[AzCatFan2]

Nico looked for his own shot way too often. And didn't have the lateral quickness to get around guards at the college level, let alone defend them. Maybe his shot can improve in the pros, but he'll never have the quickness. Role player off the bench in the NBA is probably the best he can do in my opinion.

As for Lloyd, it's unfair to judge a coach by his first year. If we struggle, it will certainly be a disappointment, because I believe we have a roster than can get us to the Sweet 16. But I'll trade a NIT appearance in Lloyd's first year if he can get to a Final Four by the 5th year.

With that said, we struggled a lot last year because we had a lot of new parts that due to restrictions, just didn't have the proper time to practice and gel. We weren't the only ones in this predicament either. See Duke and Kentucky, that had worse seasons, or Kansas, who struggled very early, but picked it up near the end of the season. With a more normal off-season and a year together, expectations for the team should be from bubble team to a team fighting for a protected, top-4 seed in the big dance.

[Spaceman Spiff]

This is the dynamic Chicat brought up.

If no prior HC experience is a huge handicap, why'd we hire this guy? If no HC experience makes it impossible to deliver on fairly reasonable expectations based on talent level, what was the point of this hire?

Or (and this is my view) Lloyd got hired because the thought is he has qualities that can offset the lack of experience. So, we should expect that.

Your Lavin example is solid for that second view. As is Michigan with Juwan. Beilein left along with the two top scorers. Juwan was solid his first year with the returning rotation guys and added to become very good in year 2.

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

Worth noting on Michigan:

Beilein left after a 30-7 season where they went 15-5 in the B1G.
Howard went 19-12 and 10-10 in the B1G

Howard returned 53% of Beilein's minutes - Lloyd will return 58% of Miller's minutes if the roster holds.

Would 19-12 and finishing 9th in conference be a "solid first year" for Lloyd?

I've got to call respectful BS on your interpretation of Michigan's 19-20 season. They were an 9-3 team in the top ten when their best player, Isaiah Livers, got injured. They beat Presbyterian to go to 10-3, then lost 4 of 5 without Livers and were 11-8 when he returned.

They lost his first game back with limited minutes to go to 11-9. They then righted the ship and went 8-3 in a decent Big 10 conference to get to that 19-12.

So when you ask if Michigan is a decent comparison, are we factoring in the idea our best player is injured and we win 70% of our games with him and 20% without him? Also, are we playing the 3rd toughest schedule strength in the nation?

[azcat49]

I think Lloyd will do great but the one thing he will learn quickly is playing our conference schedule and getting 14 wins will be a lot tougher than his WCC. schedule where he could get 18 wins a season

[Spaceman Spiff]

Nico is so interesting to me. I don't know whether his evaluations were off or if he was just immature, but he ended up bringing much less in his one year at AZ than many expected. Would he have done bigger things in a possible sophomore season? Probably, but who knows? Kerr has given him a chance with the Warriors, and since that team has injuries galore, Nico is probably getting more minutes as a rookie than some expected. He's not a trainwreck; he's just not the next-level player many had him pegged as.

Anyway, I couldn't tell you how Tyty's game and prospects compare to Nico's. In the footage I've seen, Tyty looks more athletic and seems to have better instincts on offense.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... lits/2020/

There are two splits that tell you everything about Nico's season here. First is month by month, second is wins and losses.

Month by month, he shot well in November and we were 8-0. He shoot poorly in December and we were 2-3. He shot ok in January and we were 4-3. He shot poorly in February and we were 5-4. He shot well in March and we were 2-1.

He shot 44% and 38% from 3 in wins. He shot 33% and 25% from 3 in losses.

That tells you so much about him and our team. He was our only multidimensional perimeter player, so we depended on him a huge amount. His shooting was also inconsistent, and as such, we suffered heavily when his J didn't fall. He was as predictive a player as it gets.

This isn't really his fault either. Sometimes playera don't make shots. It wasn't like his shot quality varied wildly.

I disagree on him vs Tyty. Nico was a good distributor and 35.1 ast% and 2-1 assist/TO as a freshman shows that. Tyty, I see him more as a scorer. I think they're comparable as shooters. If Tyty has an advantage, it isn't offense, it's defensive length. That's what is exceptional about Tyty.

All due respect, I think you're judging offensive instincts off highlights for Tyty and full game for Nico. I tend to the opposite. I think Nico was a more refined player, but Tyty has the 6'9 wingspan freak factor Nico didn't.

[Longhorned]

This is the dynamic Chicat brought up.

If no prior HC experience is a huge handicap, why'd we hire this guy? If no HC experience makes it impossible to deliver on fairly reasonable expectations based on talent level, what was the point of this hire?

Or (and this is my view) Lloyd got hired because the thought is he has qualities that can offset the lack of experience. So, we should expect that.

Your Lavin example is solid for that second view. As is Michigan with Juwan. Beilein left along with the two top scorers. Juwan was solid his first year with the returning rotation guys and added to become very good in year 2.

I think that's what you expect from Lloyd. To perform to the talent level, which is likely top 20, depending on guard additions.

Worth noting on Michigan:

Beilein left after a 30-7 season where they went 15-5 in the B1G.
Howard went 19-12 and 10-10 in the B1G

Howard returned 53% of Beilein's minutes - Lloyd will return 58% of Miller's minutes if the roster holds.

Would 19-12 and finishing 9th in conference be a "solid first year" for Lloyd?

I've got to call respectful BS on your interpretation of Michigan's 19-20 season. They were an 9-3 team in the top ten when their best player, Isaiah Livers, got injured. They beat Presbyterian to go to 10-3, then lost 4 of 5 without Livers and were 11-8 when he returned.

They lost his first game back with limited minutes to go to 11-9. They then righted the ship and went 8-3 in a decent Big 10 conference to get to that 19-12.

So when you ask if Michigan is a decent comparison, are we factoring in the idea our best player is injured and we win 70% of our games with him and 20% without him? Also, are we playing the 3rd toughest schedule strength in the nation?

Ah, you're one of those people who interrogate the limits of the relevance of pure mathematics in light of the specific details and textured untidiness of real life.

[Sid]

The first time he slings his sport coat to the bench and has zero pit stains, that will be good enough for me.

[Beachcat97]

Nico is so interesting to me. I don't know whether his evaluations were off or if he was just immature, but he ended up bringing much less in his one year at AZ than many expected. Would he have done bigger things in a possible sophomore season? Probably, but who knows? Kerr has given him a chance with the Warriors, and since that team has injuries galore, Nico is probably getting more minutes as a rookie than some expected. He's not a trainwreck; he's just not the next-level player many had him pegged as.

Anyway, I couldn't tell you how Tyty's game and prospects compare to Nico's. In the footage I've seen, Tyty looks more athletic and seems to have better instincts on offense.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... lits/2020/

There are two splits that tell you everything about Nico's season here. First is month by month, second is wins and losses.

Month by month, he shot well in November and we were 8-0. He shoot poorly in December and we were 2-3. He shot ok in January and we were 4-3. He shot poorly in February and we were 5-4. He shot well in March and we were 2-1.

He shot 44% and 38% from 3 in wins. He shot 33% and 25% from 3 in losses.

That tells you so much about him and our team. He was our only multidimensional perimeter player, so we depended on him a huge amount. His shooting was also inconsistent, and as such, we suffered heavily when his J didn't fall. He was as predictive a player as it gets.

This isn't really his fault either. Sometimes playera don't make shots. It wasn't like his shot quality varied wildly.

I disagree on him vs Tyty. Nico was a good distributor and 35.1 ast% and 2-1 assist/TO as a freshman shows that. Tyty, I see him more as a scorer. I think they're comparable as shooters. If Tyty has an advantage, it isn't offense, it's defensive length. That's what is exceptional about Tyty.

All due respect, I think you're judging offensive instincts off highlights for Tyty and full game for Nico. I tend to the opposite. I think Nico was a more refined player, but Tyty has the 6'9 wingspan freak factor Nico didn't.

Outstanding breakdown, Spiff. Much appreciated.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Worth noting on Michigan:

Beilein left after a 30-7 season where they went 15-5 in the B1G.
Howard went 19-12 and 10-10 in the B1G

Howard returned 53% of Beilein's minutes - Lloyd will return 58% of Miller's minutes if the roster holds.

Would 19-12 and finishing 9th in conference be a "solid first year" for Lloyd?

I've got to call respectful BS on your interpretation of Michigan's 19-20 season. They were an 9-3 team in the top ten when their best player, Isaiah Livers, got injured. They beat Presbyterian to go to 10-3, then lost 4 of 5 without Livers and were 11-8 when he returned.

They lost his first game back with limited minutes to go to 11-9. They then righted the ship and went 8-3 in a decent Big 10 conference to get to that 19-12.

So when you ask if Michigan is a decent comparison, are we factoring in the idea our best player is injured and we win 70% of our games with him and 20% without him? Also, are we playing the 3rd toughest schedule strength in the nation?

Ah, you're one of those people who interrogate the limits of the relevance of pure mathematics in light of the specific details and textured untidiness of real life.

I can try mathematically if you prefer.

Michigan went 19-12 vs the #3 SOS. Scaled to Arizona's likely SOS, that would equal about 22-9.

Michigan also lost their top two players. Assuming Akinjo is one of our top 2, but we retained the other (Mathurin or Tubelis) we scale another win or two upwards. Now the bar is 23-8 or 24-7.

Michigan also lost 4 of 5 games without their best player. If Arizona is healthy, this probably leads to another 2 game scale to presume UM goes 3-2 with Livers.

End result, the Michigan comparison bar for a healthy Arizona team is probably 25-6 or 26-5.

It's as mathematical as I can make it, but:

[ByJoveByJingle]

The first time he slings his sport coat to the bench and has zero pit stains, that will be good enough for me.

I can probably manage that. Where’s my $3 million/year?

[YoDeFoe]

How do we feel about Lloyd seemingly "self sanctioning" our scholarship limit this season? Because I fucking hate it. Now, I'm not having a good day, so I fucking hate a lot of things today, so please give me some feedback: yay or nay to self imposing a scholarship limit in order to get that out of the way?

[gronk4heisman]

How do we feel about Lloyd seemingly "self sanctioning" our scholarship limit this season? Because I fucking hate it. Now, I'm not having a good day, so I fucking hate a lot of things today, so please give me some feedback: yay or nay to self imposing a scholarship limit in order to get that out of the way?

If he is self sanctioning scholarship limits this year, that is a huge mistake IMO. I am absolutely a nay there. If that is why he is chasing these guys off I will no longer be on board the Tommy train.

[Spaceman Spiff]

How do we feel about Lloyd seemingly "self sanctioning" our scholarship limit this season? Because I fucking hate it. Now, I'm not having a good day, so I fucking hate a lot of things today, so please give me some feedback: yay or nay to self imposing a scholarship limit in order to get that out of the way?

First, sorry you're having a bad day, man.

This is my cynical side speaking. I wonder if this is not partially a way to limit expectations.

Why do I think that? It makes very little sense to me that Arizona would self sanction in two different ways at two different times. Why tourney ban in December, then do a full round 2 of self sanctions a few months later?

It would make far more sense to me to announce a single set of self sanctions that fits what we believe our culpability is for the allegations in the NOA. Piecemealing it makes no strategic sense.

Or perhaps the dark theory is true. The tourney ban was solely a way for Robbins to leverage firing Miller, so Robbins took the tourney from the players to handicap Miller and decided to figure out the rest later.

I do think scholarship restrictions create an excuse for Lloyd, and that helps his situation. Of course, if he's expecting scholarship restrictions, I find his decision to lock up 3 scholarships on true C's like Ballo, Koloko and Brown to be a little baffling.

Dunno, just my random thoughts on it.

[Longhorned]

I think it would mean he's working under the assumption of a future scholarship reduction, and therefore planning to fill those fewer scholarships with more impactful players in the future, rather than bringing on longer-term projects sooner who would prevent future recruiting while contributing relatively less in the short term.