let's talk '21

Moderators: UAdevil, JMarkJohns

User avatar
YoDeFoe
Posts: 3276
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:35 am
Reputation: 476
Location: Costa Mesa, CA
Contact:

Re: let's talk '21

Post by YoDeFoe »

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:54 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:46 pm
RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:38 pm
That would be a gut punch. Kaluma has high upside.

Missing on both him and Tyty after seemingly leading for both for a bit would suck.
If we miss on Kaluma, it also leaves an open ended question of "Can Tommy Lloyd recruit big time US HS talent as a head guy?"
Dylan Anderson
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:02 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:54 pm

If we miss on Kaluma, it also leaves an open ended question of "Can Tommy Lloyd recruit big time US HS talent as a head guy?"
Dylan Anderson
One guy who does was destined to go to Gonzaga but came here when Tommy Lloyd moved to his home state is far from enough to answer that question for me when we have lost out on KJ Simpson, Dezonie (though this may have been mutual), Tyty (who we lead on but couldn't seal the deal) and now potentially Kaluma. Can he recruit U.S. players at a high level? I don't know which is why I said that is still a question.
RondaeShimmy
Posts: 2637
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:35 pm
Reputation: 432

Re: let's talk '21

Post by RondaeShimmy »

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:54 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:46 pm
RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:38 pm
That would be a gut punch. Kaluma has high upside.

Missing on both him and Tyty after seemingly leading for both for a bit would suck.
If we miss on Kaluma, it also leaves an open ended question of "Can Tommy Lloyd recruit big time US HS talent as a head guy?"
This podcast asked that question. It's relatively short.

I mean we've had to go international even with Miller and his last class because of the investigation and looming punishment.
Last edited by RondaeShimmy on Tue May 11, 2021 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Alieberman
Posts: 13750
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:50 am
Reputation: 2813
Location: I can't find my pants

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Alieberman »

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:54 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:46 pm
RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:38 pm
That would be a gut punch. Kaluma has high upside.

Missing on both him and Tyty after seemingly leading for both for a bit would suck.
If we miss on Kaluma, it also leaves an open ended question of "Can Tommy Lloyd recruit big time US HS talent as a head guy?"
Someone needs to start the "Can Tommy Recruit" thread.

The "Can Miller Recruit" thread was an all time great.
User avatar
BeardownZonaZona
Posts: 589
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:56 pm
Reputation: 96

Re: let's talk '21

Post by BeardownZonaZona »

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:28 pm
BeardownZonaZona wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 12:38 pm If Hickman does in fact end up at Gonzaga, I expect Harris to come available via transfer portal. I would be interested in that one
I would take Harris or Cook off of Gonzaga's hands.

Cook would be nice as a veteran on a young team, and a guy who might not care to come in as a back-up (so he doesn't eat up growth opportunity for our young players) - love his defense and he has a respectable three point shot.

Harris has the higher ceiling and I'd be stoked to add him as a second year player who has experience in Lloyd's system - would be a better pick-up than anyone not named "Washington." Good outside shot, attacks well off the dribble, can make the open pass, nice size and length to defend across the perimeter.
Harris yes. Cook, not sure if I agree but I'd need to watch more of him
I said what I said and I mean it.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

Is that supposed to be Creighton’s Ace Thakore?
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:11 pm
YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 2:02 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 1:54 pm

If we miss on Kaluma, it also leaves an open ended question of "Can Tommy Lloyd recruit big time US HS talent as a head guy?"
Dylan Anderson
One guy who does was destined to go to Gonzaga but came here when Tommy Lloyd moved to his home state is far from enough to answer that question for me when we have lost out on KJ Simpson, Dezonie (though this may have been mutual), Tyty (who we lead on but couldn't seal the deal) and now potentially Kaluma. Can he recruit U.S. players at a high level? I don't know which is why I said that is still a question.
There are a lot of TBD's with Lloyd. It's not a criticism or indictment, he just got hired late and has no prior HC experience.

We can say what we want and try to extrapolate, but I think the reality is Lloyd is still an unknown quantity, which I mean for better and worse. The better, I wouldn't ding him for missing on Kaluma or Tyty. The worse, no one knows if he has the requisite HC qualities.
Image
User avatar
UofAlum05
Posts: 4560
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 8:52 am
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by UofAlum05 »

Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?
User avatar
UAEebs86
Posts: 30154
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:41 pm
Reputation: 1834
Location: Mohave Dorm Room 417 Buzz 2

Re: let's talk '21

Post by UAEebs86 »

UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?

It's all about the Benjamins.
We are the people our parents warned us about.
-JB
2022 Survival Pool Co-Champion
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?
Kentucky is a pro showcase. Arizona...we were under Miller, but there's probably a TBD under Lloyd, especially guys like Tyty and transfers who have no interest in Lloyd's supposed long term developmental ability.
Image
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

UAEebs86 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:14 pm
UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?
It's all about the Benjamins.
If it isn't for us, we messed up.
Image
Beachcat97
Posts: 8585
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:20 pm
Reputation: 468
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Beachcat97 »

UAEebs86 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:14 pm
UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?

It's all about the Benjamins.
Can't tell if serious. You really think UK is still doing this after what's happened to us, Kansas and others? Like, did the last few years have *any* deterrent effect whatsoever?
Postmaster
Posts: 3457
Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:25 pm
Reputation: 335

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Postmaster »

No
Postmaster
Posts: 3457
Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:25 pm
Reputation: 335

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Postmaster »

Heck, the last two years probably gave some schools and easier path because all eyes were on AZ, LSU, USC
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?
Tyty is good, but so is Wheeler (35 mpg last year) and Mintz (31 mpg) and Fredrick (25 mpg) and Grady (35 mpg). That's a lot of guys who are strictly suited for the 1 and 2 who played big minutes on big programs last year.
User avatar
Longhorned
Posts: 14758
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:04 pm
Reputation: 975
Location: In a guayabera at The Sands Club, Arizona Stadium

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Longhorned »

Of course the boosters at UK will pay the fees. So will the boosters at the U fo A. Nobody got caught doing that. Anyone who stops now won't get any quality recruits.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:32 pm
UofAlum05 wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm Kentucky is about to land the Georgia PG transfer which apparently doesn't effect TyTy at all. So we can't get a PG to come here when we have 38 minutes a game waiting at the position but Kentucky can land like 6 of them?
Tyty is good, but so is Wheeler (35 mpg last year) and Mintz (31 mpg) and Fredrick (25 mpg) and Grady (35 mpg). That's a lot of guys who are strictly suited for the 1 and 2 who played big minutes on big programs last year.
This isn’t going to work out the way Calipari hopes it does. Kinda like this past season.
User avatar
Alieberman
Posts: 13750
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:50 am
Reputation: 2813
Location: I can't find my pants

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Alieberman »

All PG starting line-up?
User avatar
U.P. Zona Fan
Posts: 2647
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:57 pm
Reputation: 408
Location: Big bay, MI

Re: let's talk '21

Post by U.P. Zona Fan »

Man I missed a lot the last week. Did we lose tyty?
Arizona State might have the most surprisingly anemic history in men's basketball of any program that you might think is better than it is.
-Norlander.
User avatar
BeardownZonaZona
Posts: 589
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:56 pm
Reputation: 96

Re: let's talk '21

Post by BeardownZonaZona »

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:00 pm Man I missed a lot the last week. Did we lose tyty?
Not officially but yes we did. He's going to be a Wildcat, and not the good kind
I said what I said and I mean it.
User avatar
Merkin
Posts: 43170
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:31 am
Reputation: 1547
Location: UA basketball smells like....victory

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Merkin »

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:00 pm Man I missed a lot the last week. Did we lose tyty?
I don't think UA ever had him. Always seemed to be going to UK or the G league.
User avatar
TucsonClip
Posts: 1390
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:57 pm
Reputation: 169
Location: San Diego

Re: let's talk '21

Post by TucsonClip »

Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
"Plus, why would I go to the NBA? Duke players suck in the pros."

-Shane Battier
goslingswagg
Posts: 585
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:49 am
Reputation: 33

Re: let's talk '21

Post by goslingswagg »

TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
azcat49
Posts: 11293
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 4:33 pm
Reputation: 1027
Location: Gilbert Az

Re: let's talk '21

Post by azcat49 »

A little taller Gilbert Arenas. I know we have anointed BM that way but this kid could develop in a similar fashion
Waiting at the Rose Bowl patiently for the cats to arrive
"I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more wildcat sports"
2019 BDW Survivor Pool Champion
User avatar
YoDeFoe
Posts: 3276
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:35 am
Reputation: 476
Location: Costa Mesa, CA
Contact:

Re: let's talk '21

Post by YoDeFoe »

goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

Merkin wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:40 pm
U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 6:00 pm Man I missed a lot the last week. Did we lose tyty?
I don't think UA ever had him. Always seemed to be going to UK or the G league.
We had him until Hickman decided to bail.
User avatar
U.P. Zona Fan
Posts: 2647
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:57 pm
Reputation: 408
Location: Big bay, MI

Re: let's talk '21

Post by U.P. Zona Fan »

I heard about Hickman bailing,

Is going home to Washington?
Arizona State might have the most surprisingly anemic history in men's basketball of any program that you might think is better than it is.
-Norlander.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 2:05 am I heard about Hickman bailing,

Is going home to Washington?
Word is Gonzaga or the G League.
midnightx
Posts: 574
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2014 11:33 am
Reputation: 40

Re: let's talk '21

Post by midnightx »

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
That is true, and their early departures really impacted the depth of his latter-period rosters.
User avatar
YoDeFoe
Posts: 3276
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:35 am
Reputation: 476
Location: Costa Mesa, CA
Contact:

Re: let's talk '21

Post by YoDeFoe »

midnightx wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:00 am
YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
That is true, and their early departures really impacted the depth of his latter-period rosters.
Looking at you, Justin Simon
goslingswagg
Posts: 585
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:49 am
Reputation: 33

Re: let's talk '21

Post by goslingswagg »

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
I didn't necessarily mean in the sense that Miller didn't bring in developmental players, I meant more in the sense of the type of player he is - long, athletic wings in particular, with the ability to be successful complimentary pieces (i.e., 3-and-D). We never had enough of those types of players, and continually were spurned defensively as a result imo.

And to your point on Miller - he may have brought in some developmental players (particularly late in his tenure), but he had very little interest in investing time/resources to actually develop those players, which is why they generally didn't work out here.
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:18 am
midnightx wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:00 am
YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
That is true, and their early departures really impacted the depth of his latter-period rosters.
Looking at you, Justin Simon
I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm
TucsonClip wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 7:23 pm Bal has some interesting tools, but the redshirt year might be needed if he's still playing like he was in some of those videos.

Like Benn, he's got to build up his handles and confidence attacking off more than one or two dribbles and hoping he gets close enough to put up a shot.

Still, guys with his frame were abnormal here over the last 12 years. Welcome aboard.
To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
See, I go back and forth on this. Miller's final 2 classes (I'm counting Simpson, Dezonie and Nowell for this) are almost all developmental guys and the 2020 class was all going to stay.

Before that, he had Koloko in 2019 who has stayed to develop. In 2018, Doutrive would have been that if not for off the court issues. 2017, you had Lee and Barcello, we just hit a point where it made sense for both sides for Barcello to go to BYU. 2016, you had Simon and Comanche, who both left early. 2015, Ristic and PJC, who were 4 year guys and Craig Victor, who left early.

I look at it in terms of the overall picture. 33% of NCAA basketball players transfer at some point in their career. Our transfer rate has been fairly in line with that over the years. I'm not of the mid you can discount the national levels of transfers. Heck, at Lloyd's previous job, I'd posted my research a bit back that Gonzaga had a similar attrition rate among players with remaining eligibility leaving them not for the pros.

Especially in light of the FBI/ESPN article basically rendering one year a take what you can get year, I'm not convinced things were particularly out of line or that we should expect a tremendous change, especially in light of Miller's last two classes. We're still going to have a lot of transfers.
Image
RondaeShimmy
Posts: 2637
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:35 pm
Reputation: 432

Re: let's talk '21

Post by RondaeShimmy »

Spaceman Spiff wrote: See, I go back and forth on this. Miller's final 2 classes (I'm counting Simpson, Dezonie and Nowell for this) are almost all developmental guys and the 2020 class was all going to stay.

Before that, he had Koloko in 2019 who has stayed to develop. In 2018, Doutrive would have been that if not for off the court issues. 2017, you had Lee and Barcello, we just hit a point where it made sense for both sides for Barcello to go to BYU. 2016, you had Simon and Comanche, who both left early. 2015, Ristic and PJC, who were 4 year guys and Craig Victor, who left early.

I look at it in terms of the overall picture. 33% of NCAA basketball players transfer at some point in their career. Our transfer rate has been fairly in line with that over the years. I'm not of the mid you can discount the national levels of transfers. Heck, at Lloyd's previous job, I'd posted my research a bit back that Gonzaga had a similar attrition rate among players with remaining eligibility leaving them not for the pros.

Especially in light of the FBI/ESPN article basically rendering one year a take what you can get year, I'm not convinced things were particularly out of line or that we should expect a tremendous change, especially in light of Miller's last two classes. We're still going to have a lot of transfers.
He had to go that way (plus international) because of the looming sanctions and job uncertainty. If that wasn't the case he would still gone after top 30 guys/top 5 classes that would've played over any development kids. Again, not an environment conducive to developmental players.

Comanche, Victor, Barcello etc are proof of that. Arizona was going to get a class of Little, Quinerly, Williams, O'Neal, Bol (possibly Reid or Shittu) that would've played over the development guys. And it would've kept happening.

Miller had to scramble because Arizona had no one late last year and went and several internationals.
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

goslingswagg wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:28 am I didn't necessarily mean in the sense that Miller didn't bring in developmental players, I meant more in the sense of the type of player he is - long, athletic wings in particular, with the ability to be successful complimentary pieces (i.e., 3-and-D). We never had enough of those types of players, and continually were spurned defensively as a result imo.
Ooh, see, I heavily disagree here.

This would be my top of the head list of long, athletic perimeter guys (I'm using 6'5 to 6'7 as a classification point) in recent years.

Nowell
Mathurin
Terry
Green
Doutrive
Randolph
D. Smith
Akot
Simmons
Alkins
Simon
R. Smith

That goes back 6 years and is an average of 2 players in the 6'5-6'7 range per recruiting class. Not all them stayed, for good and bad reasons, but that's a pretty high number and doesn't even stretch to include guys like Trier and Allen.
Image
RondaeShimmy
Posts: 2637
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:35 pm
Reputation: 432

Re: let's talk '21

Post by RondaeShimmy »

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am
YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:18 am
midnightx wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:00 am
YoDeFoe wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:23 pm
goslingswagg wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 8:26 pm

To me, he’s a big ball of clay as a prospect, in a good way. Basically has the foundation of what you look for in a high level player, but needs to really put on weight and needs time to develop those skills to reach his potential as a player. Think he’s got a chance to very good by year 3 though. He’s exactly the right kind of long term prospect for us to invest in, and the archetype of the kind of a player that we had been missing under Miller.
Miller brought in plenty of developmental players - just didn't see a lot of them stay at Arizona long enough to deliver on their potential for us.
That is true, and their early departures really impacted the depth of his latter-period rosters.
Looking at you, Justin Simon
I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
York's camp was definitely making problems because York wasn't playing early. I don't know what he was promised but he and them clearly expected him to play more early.

Akot is another guy that was another high rated recruited that needed some development like Simon.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

*Jerk off motion*
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

RondaeShimmy wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:49 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: See, I go back and forth on this. Miller's final 2 classes (I'm counting Simpson, Dezonie and Nowell for this) are almost all developmental guys and the 2020 class was all going to stay.

Before that, he had Koloko in 2019 who has stayed to develop. In 2018, Doutrive would have been that if not for off the court issues. 2017, you had Lee and Barcello, we just hit a point where it made sense for both sides for Barcello to go to BYU. 2016, you had Simon and Comanche, who both left early. 2015, Ristic and PJC, who were 4 year guys and Craig Victor, who left early.

I look at it in terms of the overall picture. 33% of NCAA basketball players transfer at some point in their career. Our transfer rate has been fairly in line with that over the years. I'm not of the mid you can discount the national levels of transfers. Heck, at Lloyd's previous job, I'd posted my research a bit back that Gonzaga had a similar attrition rate among players with remaining eligibility leaving them not for the pros.

Especially in light of the FBI/ESPN article basically rendering one year a take what you can get year, I'm not convinced things were particularly out of line or that we should expect a tremendous change, especially in light of Miller's last two classes. We're still going to have a lot of transfers.
He had to go that way (plus international) because of the looming sanctions and job uncertainty. If that wasn't the case he would still gone after top 30 guys/top 5 classes that would've played over any development kids. Again, not an environment conducive to developmental players.

Comanche, Victor, Barcello etc are proof of that. Arizona was going to get a class of Little, Quinerly, Williams, O'Neal, Bol (possibly Reid or Shittu) that would've played over the development guys. And it would've kept happening.

Miller had to scramble because Arizona had no one late last year and went and several internationals.
The bolded, I just think it disregards how CBB works today. The 33% stat I posted is a real one.

If you look at Arizona's classes, we were not out of line with that national average in transfer rate. I also cited Gonzaga fairly intentionally where they lost 35% of their players.

You can expect a third of your players to leave because of things like dissatisfaction over playing time, being recruited over, etc. Look, Lloyd basically just looked to do that with Jordan Brown and Kaluma. It's how it is.
Image
User avatar
BeardownZonaZona
Posts: 589
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:56 pm
Reputation: 96

Re: let's talk '21

Post by BeardownZonaZona »

Zero chance he comes here. I'm going to laugh my ass off if he goes to LSU. Maybe Wade gave him a Stromg-ass Offer
I said what I said and I mean it.
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

Hopefully Tommy is already reaching out to others to get a desperately needed PG.
RondaeShimmy
Posts: 2637
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:35 pm
Reputation: 432

Re: let's talk '21

Post by RondaeShimmy »

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:55 am
goslingswagg wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:28 am I didn't necessarily mean in the sense that Miller didn't bring in developmental players, I meant more in the sense of the type of player he is - long, athletic wings in particular, with the ability to be successful complimentary pieces (i.e., 3-and-D). We never had enough of those types of players, and continually were spurned defensively as a result imo.
Ooh, see, I heavily disagree here.

This would be my top of the head list of long, athletic perimeter guys (I'm using 6'5 to 6'7 as a classification point) in recent years.

Nowell
Mathurin
Terry
Green
Doutrive
Randolph
D. Smith
Akot
Simmons
Alkins
Simon
R. Smith

That goes back 6 years and is an average of 2 players in the 6'5-6'7 range per recruiting class. Not all them stayed, for good and bad reasons, but that's a pretty high number and doesn't even stretch to include guys like Trier and Allen.
I think he's talking about big long wings (6'6-6'9-ish). Most of the guys you listed are too small or a guard. Rawle is unfortunately like 6'3.

I think the only ones are Ray Smith, Akot, Green (he was like 6'5 but had big wingspan), and now Terry. I think the Xavier game is good example of this black hole Arizona had, Macura and Blueitt were too big and quick for anyone on Arizona.

Even though they were both like 6'5-6'6, Arizona couldn't contain them and they had a ton of open layup lines. The twin towers didn't help either.

When Arizona did have one of these big long wings, it was almost always just 1 on roster. Case in point Smith going down twice or Arizona not being able to go small ball stretch 4 if the twin towers are getting killed like we saw in Atlantis or Buffalo or matchup with guys like Dillon Brooks.
RondaeShimmy
Posts: 2637
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:35 pm
Reputation: 432

Re: let's talk '21

Post by RondaeShimmy »

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:11 am [
The bolded, I just think it disregards how CBB works today. The 33% stat I posted is a real one.

If you look at Arizona's classes, we were not out of line with that national average in transfer rate. I also cited Gonzaga fairly intentionally where they lost 35% of their players.

You can expect a third of your players to leave because of things like dissatisfaction over playing time, being recruited over, etc. Look, Lloyd basically just looked to do that with Jordan Brown and Kaluma. It's how it is.
So why take those kids? Miller's recruiting strategy never made sense to me. He was never as good as Duke or Kentucky were at recruiting one and done's. He was never as good as getting good recruits to stay multiple years like Villanova or North Carolina.

He was in limbo in between the two.

Miller was never a developmental guy imo, I always heard he wasn't interested in it. His biggest success was when he had a bunch of 5*s who stayed 3-4 years and future NBA transfer pg. Again, his recruiting strategy never made sense because the 5*s he was nabbing weren't the top 7-10 instant impact players and were going to leave in a year or two at most. Leaving no experience and having to reload all the time with the same type of players that just left (add transfers to this recently).
Last edited by RondaeShimmy on Wed May 12, 2021 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

RondaeShimmy wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:41 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:11 am [
The bolded, I just think it disregards how CBB works today. The 33% stat I posted is a real one.

If you look at Arizona's classes, we were not out of line with that national average in transfer rate. I also cited Gonzaga fairly intentionally where they lost 35% of their players.

You can expect a third of your players to leave because of things like dissatisfaction over playing time, being recruited over, etc. Look, Lloyd basically just looked to do that with Jordan Brown and Kaluma. It's how it is.
So why take those kids? Miller's recruiting strategy never made sense to me. He was never as good as Duke or Kentucky were at recruiting one and done's. He was never as good as getting good recruits to stay multiple years like Villanova or North Carolina.

He was in limbo in between the two.

Miller was never a developmental guy imo. His biggest success was when he had a bunch of 5*s who stayed 3-4 years and future NBA transfer pg. Again, his recruiting strategy never made sense because the 5*s he was nabbing weren't the top 7-10 instant impact players and were going to leave in a year or two at most. Leaving no experience and having to reload all the time with the same type of players that just left.
Nail, meet head.
User avatar
YoDeFoe
Posts: 3276
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:35 am
Reputation: 476
Location: Costa Mesa, CA
Contact:

Re: let's talk '21

Post by YoDeFoe »

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Look at what Gonzaga is going through right now. In order to capitalize on their window of opportunity, Few is bringing in more five star players and more high level transfers - eschewing his developmental players. In turn, those developmental players are having to look to the transfer portal to find opportunity. It's the typical price of success - few teams are able to do development and championship runs at the same time.
ChooChooCat
Posts: 8692
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:47 pm
Reputation: 1152

Re: let's talk '21

Post by ChooChooCat »

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 am
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Look at what Gonzaga is going through right now. In order to capitalize on their window of opportunity, Few is bringing in more five star players and more high level transfers - eschewing his developmental players. In turn, those developmental players are having to look to the transfer portal to find opportunity. It's the typical price of success - few teams are able to do development and championship runs at the same time.

It should go in windows, you're absolutely right. After your window has closed, focus on development, and then once you're reaping the benefits of said development fit the rest of the holes with elite talent/high end transfers and profit.
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 am
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Look at what Gonzaga is going through right now. In order to capitalize on their window of opportunity, Few is bringing in more five star players and more high level transfers - eschewing his developmental players. In turn, those developmental players are having to look to the transfer portal to find opportunity. It's the typical price of success - few teams are able to do development and championship runs at the same time.
Gonzaga is returning 3 top 100 recruits from last year's class who played small roles. So they may be recruiting top guys but they are also keeping guys around.
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

RondaeShimmy wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:41 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:11 am [
The bolded, I just think it disregards how CBB works today. The 33% stat I posted is a real one.

If you look at Arizona's classes, we were not out of line with that national average in transfer rate. I also cited Gonzaga fairly intentionally where they lost 35% of their players.

You can expect a third of your players to leave because of things like dissatisfaction over playing time, being recruited over, etc. Look, Lloyd basically just looked to do that with Jordan Brown and Kaluma. It's how it is.
So why take those kids? Miller's recruiting strategy never made sense to me. He was never as good as Duke or Kentucky were at recruiting one and done's. He was never as good as getting good recruits to stay multiple years like Villanova or North Carolina.

He was in limbo in between the two.

Miller was never a developmental guy imo, I always heard he wasn't interested in it. His biggest success was when he had a bunch of 5*s who stayed 3-4 years and future NBA transfer pg. Again, his recruiting strategy never made sense because the 5*s he was nabbing weren't the top 7-10 instant impact players and were going to leave in a year or two at most. Leaving no experience and having to reload all the time with the same type of players that just left (add transfers to this recently).
I understand this isn't a popular opinion here, but I disagree and think a lot of people confuse pre and post FBI. Pre-FBI, virtually all Miller teams had good experience.

17-18: in our top 8, 2 freshmen, 2 sophs (one third year), 1 junior and 3 seniors.
16-17: top 8, 3 frosh, 2 sophs, 2 juniors and a 5th year senior.
15-16: top 8, 1 frosh, 2 sophs, a 4th year junior and 4 seniors (one 5th year, one grad transfer).

I'll stop there because you'd cited the 13-14 and 14-15 years as stronger ones. The major turnover and dearth of experience happened post-FBI. There was never a year where you had fewer than 5 of the top 8 possessing a year plus in the Arizona system under their belt.

Edit: to build that out, look at Gonzaga this year. Top 8 includes 2 freshmen, 2 sophs, 2 juniors and 2 seniors. 3 players in their first year with the Zags, 5 players with 1+ years in their system.

Very similar to pre-FBI roster composition at Arizona.
Image
User avatar
YoDeFoe
Posts: 3276
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:35 am
Reputation: 476
Location: Costa Mesa, CA
Contact:

Re: let's talk '21

Post by YoDeFoe »

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:04 am
YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 am
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Look at what Gonzaga is going through right now. In order to capitalize on their window of opportunity, Few is bringing in more five star players and more high level transfers - eschewing his developmental players. In turn, those developmental players are having to look to the transfer portal to find opportunity. It's the typical price of success - few teams are able to do development and championship runs at the same time.
Gonzaga is returning 3 top 100 recruits from last year's class who played small roles. So they may be recruiting top guys but they are also keeping guys around.
If Hickman commits to them - which Few would like - you're likely to see Dominick Harris exit, reducing the total to two freshmen returning; one of those dudes being a 2021 commit who reclassed into last year due to COVID canceling his high school season.
gronk4heisman
Posts: 1718
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:01 pm
Reputation: 333

Re: let's talk '21

Post by gronk4heisman »

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:35 am

If Hickman commits to them - which Few would like - you're likely to see Dominick Harris exit, reducing the total to two freshmen returning; one of those dudes being a 2021 commit who reclassed into last year due to COVID canceling his high school season.
That is true, could someone explain to me why we are not in on Hickman? We make so much more sense then Gonzaga who has their starting PG Nembhard returning along with Harris and adding Salis and Bolton. I know he wants to be closer to home, but his dad has implied that he wants to be close to home or a direct flight away. We already have the Terry connection and where in it until the end when he chose UK. He clearly fits Tommy's offense if Gonzaga is looking at him.
Spaceman Spiff
Posts: 14664
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2014 7:28 am
Reputation: 1150

Re: let's talk '21

Post by Spaceman Spiff »

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 10:43 am
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 9:30 am I blame a big piece of that on Miller not leveling expectations early on for the developmental players. If you get a top 50 guy they are going to expect to play. If you are not expecting them to play you need to sell them on developing them to contribute later on down the road. That clearly was not what was going on and that may just be what college basketball is today, but I for one am hoping to see a big change in that area. Gabe York and Dusan are the only guys who come to mind that were not instant impact players that developed and grew to starters. Looking from the outside it looked like Sean was more interested in getting the next superstar rather then building his own superstars, I don't know which method is better for winning but I know as a fan of the team I prefer the developmental path where you get to actually know the players on your team over time.
Look at what Gonzaga is going through right now. In order to capitalize on their window of opportunity, Few is bringing in more five star players and more high level transfers - eschewing his developmental players. In turn, those developmental players are having to look to the transfer portal to find opportunity. It's the typical price of success - few teams are able to do development and championship runs at the same time.
I'd add to this that Gonzaga hasn't been selling top 50 guys on sitting for multiple years. Even guys who aren't top 50 like Strawther and Harris, they're looking at rotation spots (if not starting) in year 2 because Ayayi, Suggs and Cook are all leaving.

Before these last few years, they weren't pulling enough highly rated guys period to make them sit.

This year's Gonzaga team is a pretty good indicator of how hard it is to keep players in a high level program. Ayayi and Suggs are leaving for the pros. Cook and Ballo transferred. People on here are rumoring Harris might leave. Add Kispert graduating and that's losing 6 of their top 10.
Image
Post Reply