Let's Talk '22

[HiCat]

Will Henderson be a capable replacement for Terry?

It's a downgrade. I think that's undeniable. But Henderson will have an opportunity to get minutes off the bench if he proves he can defend and make plays. In the small bit of video I've seen of him, he looks like he's got good size and speed, so that's positive.

Cedric Henderson Jr. commits to Arizona
ByJason Scheer 14 hours ago

Arizona basketball has a handful of openings on its current roster and filled one of them on Thursday with the commitment of Campbell graduate transfer Cedric Henderson Jr. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound wing took official visit on Monday and was on campus Tuesday as well. Henderson Jr. chose Arizona over offers from Texas Tech and NC State.

Henderson Jr. has scored in double digits 45 times in two seasons with CU and is only 211 points shy of reaching 1,000 for his career. He also already ranks 4th on the school career FG% charts (.538) in the D-I era (since ’77-78).

Last season, Henderson Jr. was a second-team All-Big South Conference choice and led the team and ranked sixth among Big South scoring leaders (15.0). He hit double digits 22 times in 27 games.

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/A ... 188556859/

[AzCatFan2]

Dalen Terry has much more upside than Henderson Jr. But a 5th year Henderson likely can match much of DT's productivity last year. Henderson is more mature, more experienced, and has played a lot more college basketball games. With that said, I think Larrson has more upside than Henderson, and will be getting more minutes at the wing. And Henderson will be coming off the bench, providing the kind of minutes Larrson played last year.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Dalen Terry has much more upside than Henderson Jr. But a 5th year Henderson likely can match much of DT's productivity last year. Henderson is more mature, more experienced, and has played a lot more college basketball games. With that said, I think Larrson has more upside than Henderson, and will be getting more minutes at the wing. And Henderson will be coming off the bench, providing the kind of minutes Larrson played last year.

Respect, this is actually the perfect comparison. In terms of what we should expect and get from Henderson, 21-22 Larsson is dead on.

20 MPG, good 3 point shooting, 7-8 ppg and solid D and rebounding off the bench would be exactly the role and productivity I'd look for in Henderson.

[Postmaster]

He has 1 year of eligibility?

[ChooChooCat]

He has 1 year of eligibility?

Yeah just a year.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The only odd part about Henderson, he was a very good 3 point shooter as a freshman, not good as a soph and good again as a junior. He was average to above average free throw shooter as a freshman and sophomore and then not good as a junior.

I mean this as an aside. Pelle in 21-22 is a role he could fill very well for us and I figure he should at least be a mid 30% shooter from 3. It's just an unusual stat line because he has one year in both 3's and ft's where his % fell off a cliff and they're not the same year.

[threenumberones]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJv1NKPowdQ

campbell v duke full gm

watching it rn and first thing that sticks out is he is big and a really good cutter

Thanks for posting. Yes please. We need more of him. Tough, well disciplined, strong fundamentals, versatile wing. He's Junior year Sol Hill.

[YoDeFoe]

The only odd part about Henderson, he was a very good 3 point shooter as a freshman, not good as a soph and good again as a junior. He was average to above average free throw shooter as a freshman and sophomore and then not good as a junior.

I mean this as an aside. Pelle in 21-22 is a role he could fill very well for us and I figure he should at least be a mid 30% shooter from 3. It's just an unusual stat line because he has one year in both 3's and ft's where his % fell off a cliff and they're not the same year.

Yeah oddly Henderson was only 28% on catch and shoot opportunities year before last, and then went for 44% on those last season with higher volume. Im going to choose to believe the 44%.

To Sunny’s sunny prognostication of Henderson as our best perimeter scorer, I’d caution that he’s the same player who had 8 points on 11 attempts in 37 minutes against lowly Hartford the game before Duke. I see what you see, he looks like he could be a very high level contributor - clearly the best player on his old team - but there’s some curious inconsistency that should be factored.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The only odd part about Henderson, he was a very good 3 point shooter as a freshman, not good as a soph and good again as a junior. He was average to above average free throw shooter as a freshman and sophomore and then not good as a junior.

I mean this as an aside. Pelle in 21-22 is a role he could fill very well for us and I figure he should at least be a mid 30% shooter from 3. It's just an unusual stat line because he has one year in both 3's and ft's where his % fell off a cliff and they're not the same year.

Yeah oddly Henderson was only 28% on catch and shoot opportunities year before last, and then went for 44% on those last season with higher volume. Im going to choose to believe the 44%.

To Sunny’s sunny prognostication of Henderson as our best perimeter scorer, I’d caution that he’s the same player who had 8 points on 11 attempts in 37 minutes against lowly Hartford the game before Duke. I see what you see, he looks like he could be a very high level contributor - clearly the best player on his old team - but there’s some curious inconsistency that should be factored.

That's why I can't get down with Sunny and the idea he's more than a rotation guy unless our rotation is so short he has to be a starter. He was the best player on a .500 team in the Big South. But not dominant in 25 ppg or anything.

He had 14.4 ppg at Campbell. You sort of assume he's unlikely to keep the type of opportunity in minutes or shots on the P5 level, particularly on a likely top 25 team. I mean, I would be staggered if he replicated 34 mpg here.

So that alone suggests he won't be a primary scorer. Pelle's per 40 production was pretty similar to Henderson's in 21-22, with a significant competition gap and significant difference in surrounding talent to monopolize shots.

The part of Henderson I'd focus on as upside is he did not have a huge usage rate at Campbell. Meaning, he's used to not being a guy who get the ball all the time, but has still produced. That's why I say so heavily the best thing is to get Ramey and bring Henderson off the bench.

Ramey, Pelle and Kerr chew up roughly 85 mpg on the perimeter. Henderson gets 20 mpg. Bal gets 15. That's what I'd see as the rough ideal for perimeter minute distribution.

[IndianaZonaFan]

So here’s what we’re looking at early on in my eyes…This would be a 10 man rotation.

I would expect Anderson and Filip to have Nowell/Bal type minutes later in the year. Fill in when needed but likely not get a lot of run without any injuries taking place.

PG- Kerr (25) / Ramey (15)
SG- Ramey (10) / Bal (20) / Henderson (10)
SF- Pelle (20) / Henderson (10) / Filip (10)
PF- Tubelis (25) / Henri (10) / Pelle (5)
C- Ballo (20) / Henri (10) / Anderson (10)

Kerr- 25
Ramey- 25
Pelle- 25
Tubelis- 25
Ballo- 20
Bal- 20
Henderson- 20
Henri- 20
Anderson- 10
Filip- 10

[IndianaZonaFan]

Also with Henderson only having played 3 seasons, one of which was the Covid year with no tourney…doesn’t he have the option to play a 5th year?

[ChooChooCat]

So here’s what we’re looking at early on in my eyes…This would be a 10 man rotation.

I would expect Anderson and Filip to have Nowell/Bal type minutes later in the year. Fill in when needed but likely not get a lot of run without any injuries taking place.

PG- Kerr (25) / Ramey (15)
SG- Ramey (10) / Bal (20) / Henderson (10)
SF- Pelle (20) / Henderson (10) / Filip (10)
PF- Tubelis (25) / Henri (10) / Pelle (5)
C- Ballo (20) / Henri (10) / Anderson (10)

Kerr- 25
Ramey- 25
Pelle- 25
Tubelis- 25
Ballo- 20
Bal- 20
Henderson- 20
Henri- 20
Anderson- 10
Filip- 10

Anderson isn’t getting 10 minutes per. If he is then that means we’re winning the majority of our games by 40.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Also with Henderson only having played 3 seasons, one of which was the Covid year with no tourney…doesn’t he have the option to play a 5th year?

I think I posted this the other day. I believe all college basketball players cirrently have unlimited eligibility until they declare for the draft currently. K think it derives from the dormant commerce clause.

[Alieberman]

[IndianaZonaFan]

Let’s go!!!!

[YoDeFoe]

WE'RE GONNA BE GOOD AGAIN

[YoDeFoe]

GUYS IT WORKED OUT

[Dave]

Awesome!!

[YoDeFoe]

KERR / RAMEY / PELLE / ZU / BALLO
VEESAAR / HENDERSON / BAL / BORO / ANDERSON

WE'RE GOOD GOOD

[Beachcat97]

Oh this is just the best way to start the weekend, baby.

BTFD!

Welcome, Courtney! Excellent choice!

[Spaceman Spiff]

Best possible outcome given the options at this point.

5 man perimeter rotation, starting Kerr, Ramey and Pelle, bringing Bal and Henderson off the bench.

3 man big rotation, starting (sooner or later) Veesaar and Tubelis with Ballo off the bench.

Anderson and Borocavinin learning and available in emergencies.

[Alieberman]

Do we think that's it or maybe 1 more?

I always want 1 more....

[Spaceman Spiff]

KERR / RAMEY / PELLE / ZU / BALLO
VEESAAR / HENDERSON / BAL / BORO / ANDERSON

WE'RE GOOD GOOD

I worry we have the NBA talent ceiling limit, but we weren't changing that this late in the game.

So, Ramey and Henderson give us an experienced, solid 8 man core rotation. Having a 3rd year starter and 5th year starter in the backcourt is about as much as anyone can hope for.

[YoDeFoe]

Do we think that's it or maybe 1 more?

I always want 1 more....

Hard to believe there's one more unless it's a redshirt / towel waiver. We really do have everything we need at this point and we know Tommy isn't going to bring in a guy just to have a guy.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Do we think that's it or maybe 1 more?

I always want 1 more....

1 more means that 1 more will be pissed about lack of PT. In the know when to hold em, fold em, walk away and when to run continuum, I'd put this at fast walk to slow run away from the table.

[YoDeFoe]

KERR / RAMEY / PELLE / ZU / BALLO
VEESAAR / HENDERSON / BAL / BORO / ANDERSON

WE'RE GOOD GOOD

I worry we have the NBA talent ceiling limit, but we weren't changing that this late in the game.

So, Ramey and Henderson give us an experienced, solid 8 man core rotation. Having a 3rd year starter and 5th year starter in the backcourt is about as much as anyone can hope for.

Junior / Super Senior / Junior / Junior / RS Junior
Freshman / Senior / Sophomore / Freshman / Freshman

Major upgrade in experience vs last season.

[SunnyAZ]

That's why I can't get down with Sunny and the idea he's more than a rotation guy unless our rotation is so short he has to be a starter. He was the best player on a .500 team in the Big South. But not dominant in 25 ppg or anything.

He had 14.4 ppg at Campbell. You sort of assume he's unlikely to keep the type of opportunity in minutes or shots on the P5 level, particularly on a likely top 25 team. I mean, I would be staggered if he replicated 34 mpg here.

So that alone suggests he won't be a primary scorer. Pelle's per 40 production was pretty similar to Henderson's in 21-22, with a significant competition gap and significant difference in surrounding talent to monopolize shots.

The part of Henderson I'd focus on as upside is he did not have a huge usage rate at Campbell. Meaning, he's used to not being a guy who get the ball all the time, but has still produced. That's why I say so heavily the best thing is to get Ramey and bring Henderson off the bench.

Ramey, Pelle and Kerr chew up roughly 85 mpg on the perimeter. Henderson gets 20 mpg. Bal gets 15. That's what I'd see as the rough ideal for perimeter minute distribution.

i'm talking about ability. dude is a bucket, there is a reason he has shot 52 FG% for his career, not many guards can do that. but one of the 1st things i saw when I searched him is an interview where he said something along the lines of that he doesn't like to be the main guy on a team, he just likes to fit in. something about being a son of an nba player and how he doesn't like the expectations he is supposed to take over gms etc. you can tell, he is not aggressive at all. hopefully he doesn't come in and try to be a role player, which he probably will.

[Alieberman]

Do we think that's it or maybe 1 more?

I always want 1 more....

1 more means that 1 more will be pissed about lack of PT. In the know when to hold em, fold em, walk away and when to run continuum, I'd put this at fast walk to slow run away from the table.

Yes but we are only 1 injury / suspension away from having a bunch of playing time to offer.

And unless I'm mistaken we are still the University of Arizona... so there are certain things we can count on....

[EastCoastCat]

Great news. CTL has a lot of good pieces to work with. Solid front and backcourt rotation.

I don't know why I say this but Bal to me is the wild card - will he continue to raise his game?

BTFD!

Ok, let's talk about pre-season rankings. Top 25 - yes. But can we get into the teens?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Do we think that's it or maybe 1 more?

I always want 1 more....

1 more means that 1 more will be pissed about lack of PT. In the know when to hold em, fold em, walk away and when to run continuum, I'd put this at fast walk to slow run away from the table.

Yes but we are only 1 injury / suspension away from having a bunch of playing time to offer.

And unless I'm mistaken we are still the University of Arizona... so there are certain things we can count on....

That's why Borocavinin and Anderson exist. Pipe dream for me anyone beyond a developmental project is signing on to be the in case of emergency, break glass guy. And we have two developmental guys in the glass.

[Beachcat97]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

[Spaceman Spiff]

KERR / RAMEY / PELLE / ZU / BALLO
VEESAAR / HENDERSON / BAL / BORO / ANDERSON

WE'RE GOOD GOOD

I worry we have the NBA talent ceiling limit, but we weren't changing that this late in the game.

So, Ramey and Henderson give us an experienced, solid 8 man core rotation. Having a 3rd year starter and 5th year starter in the backcourt is about as much as anyone can hope for.

Junior / Super Senior / Junior / Junior / RS Junior
Freshman / Senior / Sophomore / Freshman / Freshman

Major upgrade in experience vs last season.

Agree, except I thought we had good experience last year. These days, I skew towards role experience much more heavily than years. Last year, we had 6 of our top 7 being sophs, but all 7 of our top 7 were starters in 20-21.

I'd rather have a bunch of guys who have experience starting than just a bunch of years in college. Which is also why Anderson and Ramey are nice. They both know what it's like to have a major role.

[Chicat]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

I was also wondering where our current roster slots us in the league, but I don’t know near enough about the other rosters to take a guess.

[YoDeFoe]

Yes but we are only 1 injury / suspension away from having a bunch of playing time to offer.

And unless I'm mistaken we are still the University of Arizona... so there are certain things we can count on....

That's why Borocavinin and Anderson exist. Pipe dream for me anyone beyond a developmental project is signing on to be the in case of emergency, break glass guy. And we have two developmental guys in the glass.

Beyond activating Boro and Anderson, we also have guys who can take more minutes if need be. Kerr, Pelle, Ramey... could play any of those guys 35min/g if needed. Henderson, Bal, Veesaar - can play major minutes on those shoulders and they're each versatile enough to play two or more positions.

Again - break in case of emergency stuff - but we have the guys and especially the versatility among our guys that we can cover one man down. You lose two guys and all of a sudden Boro is forced into 20 something minutes a game - not ideal! But there's no such thing as losing two starters and feeling great about what you can do moving forward.

[YoDeFoe]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

I was also wondering where our current roster slots us in the league, but I don’t know near enough about the other rosters to take a guess.

Competing with UCLA for first. Top 15 roster in the nation. Veesaar and Bal are really the wildcards that determine if we fly above that.

[Beachcat97]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

I was also wondering where our current roster slots us in the league, but I don’t know near enough about the other rosters to take a guess.

From earlier this month:

https://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildca ... b97fa.html

[Spaceman Spiff]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

Positive take. I think we win the Pac. We have a lot of solid players who fit well and know how to avoid weird upsets by bringing a lunch pail to games like Cal and Oregon State.

Negative take. I think we fall short of the FF because we lack enough pro level talent for when it comes time to face the big boys.

Epitome of high floor, low ceiling.

[Beachcat97]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

I was also wondering where our current roster slots us in the league, but I don’t know near enough about the other rosters to take a guess.

Competing with UCLA for first. Top 15 roster in the nation. Veesaar and Bal are really the wildcards that determine if we fly above that.

If Veesaar becomes a starter by midseason (unlikely but possible), it's probably because his development is way ahead of schedule, and it could mean we have a higher ceiling next season than most will say when the season begins.

This is exciting, guys. Coach Lloyd and his staff should get a ton of credit for navigating this first round of early departures and roster turnover.

[YoDeFoe]

And UCLA... they have question marks still in their depth. Back-up PG is going to be a freshman (either Bailey sliding over or the four star Andrews coming on). Zero back-up PF of any worth. Zero back-up C of any worth (behind a raw five star incoming center).

They bring back Tyger and Jaime and Singleton and Clark and they bring in a nice class of two five stars and a four star. It's a good group but it's thin and the transfer market is depleted. Barring some major development they're going to be playing a lot of small ball with Jaquez getting minutes at the five.

[Beachcat97]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

Positive take. I think we win the Pac. We have a lot of solid players who fit well and know how to avoid weird upsets by bringing a lunch pail to games like Cal and Oregon State.

Negative take. I think we fall short of the FF because we lack enough pro level talent for when it comes time to face the big boys.

Epitome of high floor, low ceiling.

One glaring fact heading into next season is that ucla has Bob Marley and Jaquez back (Jaquez has been at ucla since at least 2013). That's arguably the best returning tandem in the conference. They also have Amari Bailey, who is likely to be OAD. I've already seen Micro Mick squander talent and underachieve, so I'm not at all convinced they should be the favorite. But they do have some serious talent returning.

Don't sleep on Utah and Stanford. Here's another good column:

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/P ... 88483456_4

[Spaceman Spiff]

Yes but we are only 1 injury / suspension away from having a bunch of playing time to offer.

And unless I'm mistaken we are still the University of Arizona... so there are certain things we can count on....

That's why Borocavinin and Anderson exist. Pipe dream for me anyone beyond a developmental project is signing on to be the in case of emergency, break glass guy. And we have two developmental guys in the glass.

Beyond activating Boro and Anderson, we also have guys who can take more minutes if need be. Kerr, Pelle, Ramey... could play any of those guys 35min/g if needed. Henderson, Bal, Veesaar - can play major minutes on those shoulders and they're each versatile enough to play two or more positions.

Again - break in case of emergency stuff - but we have the guys and especially the versatility among our guys that we can cover one man down. You lose two guys and all of a sudden Boro is forced into 20 something minutes a game - not ideal! But there's no such thing as losing two starters and feeling great about what you can do moving forward.

Agreed. I've always felt there's a certain degree of knowing the point at which you can't adequately prepare for every need.

Like, what if Ballo goes down, Anderson and Borocavinin aren't ready and then you also lose a perimeter guy so you can't flex Pelle or Henderson to the 4? You can't build a roster for every eventuality without a couple guys mad because they aren't getting PT they should.

I mean, either you lie to a kid and tell him he'll play and then bury him or your pitch is, come here and you might see the floor if two of our starters go down. Option 1 leaves you with a pissed off player. Option 2 is the worst recruiting pitch I've heard.

[YoDeFoe]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

Positive take. I think we win the Pac. We have a lot of solid players who fit well and know how to avoid weird upsets by bringing a lunch pail to games like Cal and Oregon State.

Negative take. I think we fall short of the FF because we lack enough pro level talent for when it comes time to face the big boys.

Epitome of high floor, low ceiling.

I buy this. I think our defense, guard play, and outside shooting make us dangerous come tournament time. Veesaar could blow up into a full blown problem come tournament time. Would love to imagine Zu and Pelle as reliable tournament bucket getters.

[azcat49]

Still concerned about Tubelis and his development. His off season will be nill due to the injury so he may start slow.

We lose three NBA level guys and we are counting on first year guys to fill some of those minutes.

I guess we will find out how much Lloyd is like Lute and see if he can replicate last season when not many expect it

[Spaceman Spiff]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

I was also wondering where our current roster slots us in the league, but I don’t know near enough about the other rosters to take a guess.

Competing with UCLA for first. Top 15 roster in the nation. Veesaar and Bal are really the wildcards that determine if we fly above that.

If Veesaar becomes a starter by midseason (unlikely but possible), it's probably because his development is way ahead of schedule, and it could mean we have a higher ceiling next season than most will say when the season begins.

This is exciting, guys. Coach Lloyd and his staff should get a ton of credit for navigating this first round of early departures and roster turnover.

Unlikely? My only question about Veesaar is whether he starts from Day 1 or gets into it. He's closer to the NBA then any other player we have by a significant margin.

Why I think we beat UCLA in the Pac is they may have more top level talent, but we have more solid experience. Winning the conference isn't about beating your main competitior, it's about not dropping any second level games. If we lose both to UCLA and win everything else, we go 16-2 and their youth probably won't match.

In my pro/con dynamic, it's also why I could easily see UCLA going further than us in the postseason.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

Positive take. I think we win the Pac. We have a lot of solid players who fit well and know how to avoid weird upsets by bringing a lunch pail to games like Cal and Oregon State.

Negative take. I think we fall short of the FF because we lack enough pro level talent for when it comes time to face the big boys.

Epitome of high floor, low ceiling.

I buy this. I think our defense, guard play, and outside shooting make us dangerous come tournament time. Veesaar could blow up into a full blown problem come tournament time. Would love to imagine Zu and Pelle as reliable tournament bucket getters.

Just to clarify...I agree with being dangerous. Maybe a better way to put my thought is we have the mark of a team who will have a fantastic regular season record, but less of the potential extra level in the tournament that teams with a bunch of NBA prospects do.

Edit: Like Garza's last Iowa team. Great regular season, #2 seed...also not a shock when your guy Duarte got them in the 2nd round.

[Beachcat97]

In my pro/con dynamic, it's also why I could easily see UCLA going further than us in the postseason.

Cronin's been past the S16 one time in his 25 years of head coaching. I wouldn't expect much postseason success from ucla while he's there.

[RawleArenas]

Ah yes, good news at last. Thanks Choo for the heads up.

The only thing we're missing is a combo forward. Actually, if Akot wasn't such a head case, he'd be perfect for what we need. He has elite guard speed, but only showed it in brief spurts when he was here. I just can't trust anyone who quits on his team like that.

If Veesar starts hitting shots like Lauri, then this team can do a lot of damage. Even without a combo forward, we have a very talented team. With one, we can inch closer to last year's ceiling.

[Spaceman Spiff]

In my pro/con dynamic, it's also why I could easily see UCLA going further than us in the postseason.

Cronin's been past the S16 one time in his 25 years of head coaching. I wouldn't expect much postseason success from ucla while he's there.

I'm much higher on Cronin than you are. His Cincy teams were the epitome of my theory about lack of NBA talent lowering your tourney ceiling. But now he has that talent.

[Alieberman]

I guess I have lower expectations this year as I don't feel like our top 3 new guys are anywhere close to replacing Benn, CLo and DT.

[YoDeFoe]

I know it's early, and this is probably the wrong thread, but I really, really wanna see some Pac 12 preview chatter after the dust settles from these two huge commitments.

I think most Pac rosters are pretty solidified at this point. Lots of new players in the league this season, transfers and freshmen. Should be a fun season.

Positive take. I think we win the Pac. We have a lot of solid players who fit well and know how to avoid weird upsets by bringing a lunch pail to games like Cal and Oregon State.

Negative take. I think we fall short of the FF because we lack enough pro level talent for when it comes time to face the big boys.

Epitome of high floor, low ceiling.

I buy this. I think our defense, guard play, and outside shooting make us dangerous come tournament time. Veesaar could blow up into a full blown problem come tournament time. Would love to imagine Zu and Pelle as reliable tournament bucket getters.

Just to clarify...I agree with being dangerous. Maybe a better way to put my thought is we have the mark of a team who will have a fantastic regular season record, but less of the potential extra level in the tournament that teams with a bunch of NBA prospects do.

Edit: Like Garza's last Iowa team. Great regular season, #2 seed...also not a shock when your guy Duarte got them in the 2nd round.

I get what you mean - you usually have to have a couple of guys with next level talent to break through. But it's not a rule, right?

UNC made it to the title game without an NBA draft pick. Nova made it to the FF without one. Houston beat Arizona despite Arizona's three first round picks and Houston's zero.

That's why I point to defense, guard play, and three point shooting. Because those things can keep you in a game and if the ball bounces the right way you keep dancing.