Official Bracketology Thread

[EastCoastCat]

What I love about this team is all 4 positions (except for Ballo) can score either by taking it to the rack, scoring from midrange, or nailing 3’s. And with Ballo’s ability to receive passes down low for buckets we just have so many options.

Defending this team takes a Herculean effort.

And that’s not even taking into account the outstanding defense we play.

[Lute4God]

What I love about this team is all 4 positions (except for Ballo) can score either by taking it to the rack, scoring from midrange, or nailing 3’s. And with Ballo’s ability to receive passes down low for buckets we just have so many options.

Defending this team takes a Herculean effort.

And that’s not even taking into account the outstanding defense we play.

Seems Caleb gets out-sized attention and love or hate depending on how closely the talking heads know him and the team. It's great to have a go-to guy who has so often been that at big moments, esp in the Conference.

But more important on offense is Tommy's system plus all the playmakers this team has. Is there a more efficient play than Larsson coming from the open wing off a Ballo screen? Also there's EvanMiya Pac12 #1 rated Jaden Bradley who seems to be playing his best ball of the season with 20 AST / 4 TOs in his previous 4 games (1/1 @ Pauley). Guard play overall has been getting as good as it has all season and now KJ Lewis puts up 23/5/4 with 1 TO!

What a great time to be a UA fan!

[TheCat]

I agree with your post but I think your numbers are off for Lewis.

[Lute4God]

What I love about this team is all 4 positions (except for Ballo) can score either by taking it to the rack, scoring from midrange, or nailing 3’s. And with Ballo’s ability to receive passes down low for buckets we just have so many options.

Defending this team takes a Herculean effort.

And that’s not even taking into account the outstanding defense we play.

Seems Caleb gets out-sized attention and love or hate depending on how closely the talking heads know him and the team. It's great to have a go-to guy who has so often been that at big moments, esp in the Conference.

But more important on offense is Tommy's system plus all the playmakers this team has. Is there a more efficient play than Larsson coming from the open wing off a Ballo screen? Also there's EvanMiya Pac12 #1 rated Jaden Bradley who seems to be playing his best ball of the season with 20 AST / 4 TOs in his previous 4 games (1/1 @ Pauley). Guard play overall has been getting as good as it has all season and now KJ Lewis puts up 23/5/4 with 1 TO!

What a great time to be a UA fan!

Whoops should be 18/5reb/4ast for KJ. 23 was his minutes! Career night just the same!

[PHXCATS]

No. We control our fate. If we don't lose again before Selection Sunday, we're a 1 seed, regardless of what Tennessee does.

There is no way you can say that with any type of certainty

We're #4 in NET and #4 in the Selection Committee's own rankings. We can't fall in the rankings without losing, even if Tennessee wins out (which they won't).

Arizona has lost once since then while Tennessee has gone 6-0 including 3 ranked wins and 3 road wins (2 of which are ranked teams)

Maybe hunting all my posts has hurt your ability to think and find facts

Nothing you said at all impacts what I said. You're just blathering.

Go Cats!

[KaibabKat]

Everybody it seems has a different way of ranking teams from NET to a fairly sophisticated KenPom to the old eye test. Here are the current top 15 AP teams ranked a bit differently, and hopefully fairly. Each and every player on a given team is assigned a "value" by multiplying his Hollinger PER rating by the PERCENT of team minutes he has played to date. Then the individual "values" are totaled to get a team value (shown). Everything is more-or-less normalized by doing this There may be a couple of surprises here:

2067 UConn
1985 Purdue
1982 Arizona
1975 Kentucky
1940 Houston
1913 Duke
1911 Auburn
1881 Creighton
1872 Baylor
1856 Illinois
1837 Tennessee
1819 Marquette
1780 Iowa State
1759 North Carolina
1741 Kansas

MVP = Zach Edey at 614 and #2 isn't even close.

Kentucky beating Tennessee later today would not be an upset.

[Chicat]

Kaibab did you come up with that? Because that is super interesting.

[84Cat]

Kentucky beating Tennessee later today would not be an upset.

Vegas disagrees

[PHXCATS]

Kentucky beating Tennessee later today would not be an upset.

Vegas disagrees

Vegas does not necessarily think Tennessee is gonna win by that many or that much better at home

They seek out what gets thd most bets on both sides

[KaibabKat]

Kaibab did you come up with that? Because that is super interesting.

Yes

[Chicat]

Kaibab did you come up with that? Because that is super interesting.

Yes

Can you show us the Kentucky & Tennessee individual scores?

[cerec_cat]

Houston looks tough

[Chicat]

Houston looks tough

Their upcoming game against Arizona in the Final Four will be epic.

[g32knights]

Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

[pc in NM]

Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

Your first time watching them?

UK is playing awesome D so far...

And, looks to me like Tenn wins this game , though I hope I'm wrong

[g32knights]

Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

Your first time watching them?

UK is playing awesome D so far...

And, looks to me like Tenn wins this game , though I hope I'm wrong

Yes, I've watched them. If you play any type of good defense it's Knecht playing 1 on 5. Ziegler might give you something, but that's about it. Everyone else is bricking everything.

[Alieberman]

Kentucky is certainly trending upward

Kansas is sinking

[pc in NM]

Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

Your first time watching them?

UK is playing awesome D so far...

And, looks to me like Tenn wins this game , though I hope I'm wrong

Yes, I've watched them. If you play any type of good defense it's Knecht playing 1 on 5. Ziegler might give you something, but that's about it. Everyone else is bricking everything.

UK is playing scary good defense - few, if any, teams could shut down the interior like they are today...

But, I don't think anyone should underestimate Adu or Vescovi

[AZCatGirl]

Wildcats helping Wildcats.

Now let's kick USC's ass!

[pc in NM]

I'll settle for a #1 seed in the West!

BTFD!!!!

[Alieberman]

That certainly gives us a chance of holding the 1 seed

[dmjcat]

[Captain Obvious]

Tennessee obviously deserves the last #1 seed despite their loss to an excellent Kentucky team. UA had its chances. Just too may losses to bad Pac 12 teams. Not being battle tested over the past several weeks will be this teams undoing in my opinion heading into the NCAA tournament. That's why teams from the ACC, Big 12, and Big East will advance far and we won't. Sweet 16 is this teams ceiling but another first round exit wouldn't surprise me at all.

[g32knights]

Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

[Beachcat97]

Whether the Cats or a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

Bring ‘em on.

[g32knights]

Whether the Cats or a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

Bring ‘em on.

I gotta be honest, after last year no matchup is being taken for granted

[84Cat]

We got work to do this week

[Beachcat97]

Well, this just gets us back to everyone’s favorite age old question: which Arizona team will show up? If our guys are dialed in and getting after it, they should steam roll this weak ass Pac field, including WSU. If they think this week’s games are inconsequential and that these teams can’t beat them, they’ll be done on Thursday.

Past experience watching Tommy’s teams in this tournament makes me think the former is more likely.

[AZCatGirl]

We got work to do this week

The only way this even has a chance of happening is if we drop Thursday's game, which we wont.

[Beachcat97]

We got work to do this week

The only way this even has a chance of happening is if we drop Thursday's game, which we wont.

I don't see that happening either.

[84Cat]

[Beachcat97]

A second round AZ/Zaga match-up may be too enticing for the committee to pass up. Also, don't sleep on Drake.

[PHXCATS]

UNC moving to Detroit instead of Boston could be a wrinkle for the Cats being out of the West if Iowa State jumps Arizona

Besides that with where Bracket Matrix is right now, it doesnt seem likely the Cats are not in the west

We do now want Iowa State, Baylor, Creighton or Marquette to win their conference tournaments. That would increase the chances of Arizona not being in the west

Win Thursday I dont know if Arizona would be jumped enough to worry

[azcat49]

Drake would beat Gonzaga

[Beachcat97]

Drake would beat Gonzaga

I'm not as confident as you are in this prediction, but I do think Drake has shown they're a good team and could knock off some teams from stronger leagues if given the chance.

We're gonna have a very hard second round game this year, provided we can get past that damn first one.

[84Cat]

Why aren't we in the West? I think we get past the sweet 16 although Creighton is pretty good

[Beachcat97]

3 teams from the SEC in the FF?

Not happening.

[g32knights]

Why aren't we in the West? I think we get past the sweet 16 although Creighton is pretty good

Alabama would lose to Samford. I'm sorry, but Alabama is not that good.

[Beachcat97]

I can't take that bracket sim seriously.

[84Cat]

I can't take that bracket sim seriously.

It's just 1 sim so I wouldn't take it too seriously either. I just posted it to get some discussion going other than Chief's mindless drivel. Thursday we will find out if this team is ready for March

[RichardCranium]

Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

I doubt it. St. Mary's is gonna have that slot. Zags will have to go to a different region, methinks.

[PHXCATS]

Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

I doubt it. St. Mary's is gonna have that slot. Zags will have to go to a different region, methinks.

That only matters for seeds 1-4 and first weekend potential match-ups

[g32knights]

Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

I doubt it. St. Mary's is gonna have that slot. Zags will have to go to a different region, methinks.

It may be more likely. I saw the Zags moved up to the 6 line yesterday, so wouldn't be shocked if they fall back down to the 7 line.

[Captain Obvious]

The biggest problem I see with Arizona heading into the NCAA tournament (and conference tournament) is they play down to the level of their opponent. That is the absolute worst problem a team can have heading into the NCAA's. That's why an early or first round exit is almost guaranteed. This team is just too inconsistent to make a deep run and that's the inconvenient reality IMHO. Bosewell is my main concern. You have to have consistent play from your PG and he's the exact opposite. I know Caleb Love gives us a chance in any game but he will need help from his teammates. That's what I see happening. Bosewell disappears in the clutch and Love isn't able to rescue us especially if he's having a bad shooting game. This team's ceiling is the Sweet 16 and I'll be shocked if they get that far. My prediction is another Pac 12 team will advance further than Arizona (probably Washington State). For now I guess we get to look forward to losing to USC for the second time in 6 days. Arizona in March. Choke city baby!

[pc in NM]

This is an interesting discussion with some supporting facts...

Read the whole story: https://theathletic.com/5339769/2024/03 ... Id=9651934

As college basketball changes, so does our model to predict upsets in the NCAA Tournament

Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner - Mar 14, 2024

It’s all about employing a high-risk, high-reward style. Our statistical model, Slingshot, has found patterns among successful Bracket Breakers that have stood the test of time. Some tend to shoot lots of three-pointers, risking a lower-percentage shot for an extra point. Others send additional bodies to pursue offensive rebounds, gambling that their extra shot attempts will outweigh increased transition opportunities for their opponent. Other teams extend their defense, pressuring the ball and disrupting the passing lanes hoping that they will force bundles of turnovers. And many play a slow tempo: The fewer total possessions in a game, the less chance that the better team has to separate itself.
................................................

And top seeds are even more vulnerable when they don’t take strategic steps to insulate themselves from underdogs’ preferred tactics. Safe giants avoid turnovers, dominate the boards at both ends and limit opponents’ three-point shooting. Think of it this way: Over the course of a six-game run, most teams will have to win a game where they don’t shoot well.
................................................

We’ll discuss this in more detail once we all have actual matchups to analyze. But here are a few effects to keep in mind.

First, any style that builds possessions is better than nothing for high seeds. Every year, some teams earn high seeds even though they’re not particularly strong at offensive or defensive rebounding or at avoiding or creating turnovers. We call them “Generic Giants,” and they lose in big upsets about twice as often as all other favorites. They’re often terrific shooters — they pretty much have to be. But in March, one wrong-footed stretch can send you packing. (Red flag this year: Kansas.)

Second, even giants who build possessions are at risk to a group of underdogs we call Slow Killers. This statistical family grinds down and suffocates its foes, relying on second-chance shots and, when they have to, threes to keep themselves in close games. They’re responsible for a long line of upsets that were memorable but not easy for opposing coaches or media pundits to explain, like Iowa State over LSU and Wisconsin in 2022, Xavier over Florida State and Arizona in 2017, Wichita State over Kansas in 2015 and Harvard over Cincinnati in 2014. In 2021, 11-seed UCLA, 12-seed Oregon State and 13-seed North Texas, who posted a combined nine tournament wins, all belonged to this cluster. We’ve said before that this isn’t a very analytical way to put things, but what successful Slow Killers have in common is that they drive superior opponents crazy; they discombobulate giants used to controlling games.

Third, longshots that rely on offensive rebounding can be very effective underdogs — except against favorites with the same key strength. Then it’s like playing your older brother, which is never fun for the little guy. Last year, Providence ranked 16th in the country in offensive rebounding, but its fate as an 11-seed was basically sealed when it drew Kentucky, which ranked No. 1 in that category. (And their matchup played true to form, with the Wildcats crushing the Friars on the boards.)

In addition to these considerations, we’ve bolted two more factors onto the ensemble of calculations that Slingshot performs. One is something we call Similarity, where our model looks at a matchup and measures which contests from our spreadsheets (which go back to 2007) are its closest statistical matches. We’ve learned that similar games often tell us something that bit-by-bit analysis of data points doesn’t capture, sometimes with eye-popping results.
...............................................

Slingshot understands pace better than “slow tempo is good for underdogs,” which is true but incomplete. A team looks fast when it runs a quick offense. And offensive pace drives a team’s ranking in overall tempo as measured by possessions per game. But we have learned that it also matters how a longshot plays when it doesn’t have the ball. Indeed, a string of very deep underdogs sporting wide gaps between their average possession length on offense and defense have pulled off big upsets in recent years. To name a few: Ohio as a 14-seed in 2010 and a 13-seed in 2012, Florida Gulf Coast in 2015, 13-seed Buffalo and 13-seed Marshall in 2018 and 11-seed Syracuse in 2021. This is a fascinating group of teams with an underappreciated ability to play fast on offense while making their opponents grind out possessions at the other end. And we now incorporate metrics for possession length into Slingshot, too.

Slingshot is constantly evolving. And in the ever-changing college basketball world, its next discovery might be soon. Perhaps, as we build a greater sample size of upsets in the transfer portal era, we’ll find that continuity matters. Maybe, as expansion creates mega-conferences, we’ll find that conference strength plays an increasingly important role in projecting upsets. Maybe NIL will increase the disparity between the haves and have-nots, leading to fewer upsets altogether. Or maybe it actually will trigger more unexpected results.

We’re excited to see what comes next. In the meantime, it’s time to embrace the chaos. Bring on the upsets.

[AZCatGirl]

Mississippi St.defeating Tennessee in their first game of the SEC tournament is pretty shocking. Lunardi thinks this opens the door for UNC getting the one seed, but could we still have a chance if we win the next two games?

[84Cat]

UNC is 7th in the net, we're 4th. That would be total bs for them to pass us. Either the net is now worthless or the Pac12 is getting screwed once again

[dovecanyoncat]

So, yes, it's UNC ftw!

[Beachcat97]

Mississippi St.defeating Tennessee in their first game of the SEC tournament is pretty shocking. Lunardi thinks this opens the door for UNC getting the one seed, but could we still have a chance if we win the next two games?

Absolutely.

Our resume probably outshines UNC's if we win today and tomorrow. And we beat Duke, so...

[Beachcat97]

UNC is 7th in the net, we're 4th. That would be total bs for them to pass us. Either the net is now worthless or the Pac12 is getting screwed once again

If we win today and tomorrow, we're a #1 seed, regardless of what UNC does.