Nate Silver's take

[ghostwhitehorse]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nca ... y-is-over/

In fact, the top two seeds in the West — Wisconsin and Arizona — rank as the second and third best teams nationally, according to our composite ratings. The No. 2 seed, Arizona, actually rates slightly higher than Wisconsin; Arizona is also the only team ahead of Kentucky in any of the seven systems we track (Arizona rates slightly ahead of Kentucky in Sonny Moore’s power ratings.).

Still, these are marginal differences. (Arizona’s composite power rating is 94.7 while Wisconsin’s is 94.1, which means that Arizona would be favored by less than a point on a neutral court.) So why does the model give Arizona a considerably better chance — 46 percent against Wisconsin’s 33 percent — of reaching the Final Four? Some of it has to do with each team’s Sweet 16 matchup. Wisconsin’s prospective opponent (No. 4 seed North Carolina) rates as being stronger than Arizona’s (No. 3 seed Baylor). But the geography also works in Arizona’s favor; the regional final will be played in Los Angeles.

There’s not much depth in the West after the top four seeds. But one potential exception is the No. 10 seed, Ohio State, which is as strong as a typical No. 5 seed by the computer ratings even though Aaron Craft finally graduated.

Hrmmm. . .

[97cats]

thx, GWH -- i saw this earlier and thought it was an excellent all around read.

[Spaceman Spiff]

This is all pretty accurate, although I'd give us slightly more of an advantage vs Wisky, maybe 65-35 vs a virtual tossup.

[Jefe]

http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/m-basket.htm

Interesting

[azgreg]

Never heard of Moore power Rating.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Never heard of Moore power Rating.

I have heard Moore power can trigger Moore problems.

[thenewazcats]

I liked his bracket projector: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... 2015/#mens

[dmjcat]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nca ... y-is-over/

In fact, the top two seeds in the West — Wisconsin and Arizona — rank as the second and third best teams nationally, according to our composite ratings. The No. 2 seed, Arizona, actually rates slightly higher than Wisconsin; Arizona is also the only team ahead of Kentucky in any of the seven systems we track (Arizona rates slightly ahead of Kentucky in Sonny Moore’s power ratings.).

Still, these are marginal differences. (Arizona’s composite power rating is 94.7 while Wisconsin’s is 94.1, which means that Arizona would be favored by less than a point on a neutral court.) So why does the model give Arizona a considerably better chance — 46 percent against Wisconsin’s 33 percent — of reaching the Final Four? Some of it has to do with each team’s Sweet 16 matchup. Wisconsin’s prospective opponent (No. 4 seed North Carolina) rates as being stronger than Arizona’s (No. 3 seed Baylor). But the geography also works in Arizona’s favor; the regional final will be played in Los Angeles.

There’s not much depth in the West after the top four seeds. But one potential exception is the No. 10 seed, Ohio State, which is as strong as a typical No. 5 seed by the computer ratings even though Aaron Craft finally graduated.

Hrmmm. . .

There are quite a few pundits that believe AZ has the best chance of beating UK:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/2 ... he-Tourney

[Jefe]

There are quite a few pundits that believe AZ has the best chance of beating UK:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/2 ... he-Tourney

Another:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1046665392030293

[dmjcat]

Pat Fordes take on AZ's best case scenario:

No. 2 ARIZONA

Best Case: Sean Miller doesn’t just shatter his personal Final Four ceiling, he keeps going and wins it all. With freshman Stanley Johnson on a salary drive, fully bought-in and playing as well as anyone in the country, Arizona has the star power to go along with the teamwork and relentless defense to be a champion. Wildcats steamroll to a regional final rematch with Wisconsin and turn the tables with a one-point victory. In the Final Four, Arizona has the requisite size and strength to combat Kentucky and makes enough perimeter shots to shock Big Blue – just as it did in 1997 en route to the school’s other national title. 'Zona beats Duke in the championship game in karmic payback for the 2001 title-game no-call on Jay Williams for body-surfing on Jason Gardner’s back. Johnson jumps up alongside Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell in the No. 1 draft pick debate. Lute Olson gets an all-time sidekick in Arizona annals in Miller. The Pac-12 gets its first title since ’97. And Arizona fans get one more compare-and-contrast piece of hardware in the trophy case to taunt Arizona State.

[97cats]

Stanley Johnson = MOP

[azgreg]

'Zona beats Duke in the championship game in karmic payback for the 2001 title-game no-call on Jay Williams for body-surfing on Jason Gardner’s back.

[Spaceman Spiff]

'Zona beats Duke in the championship game in karmic payback for the 2001 title-game no-call on Jay Williams for body-surfing on Jason Gardner’s back.

If karmic payback manifests in this tourney, we have a lot more than just that to be repaid for.

It's nice/accurate to see us gaining traction as the most likely team to beat UK. I've been saying it for a while, but will be nice and not charge royalties.

[Olsondogg]

Stanley Johnson = MOP

He likes his hair that way. Thank you.