Bear Down Wildcats

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Lunardi projecting us as next four out

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:52 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Lunardi projecting us as next four out

Well, it's sort of an improvement...

I project Lunardi as a #1 seed in the bad toupee bracket.

UAEebs86 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:27 pm I project Lunardi as a #1 seed in the bad toupee bracket.

Bill Self will also be a 1 seed and play the opening rounds in Kansas City.

Three Man Weave has their annual assessments rolling out and Arizona's is in. For those that don't know, this is a great group of guys who does deep dives on cbb through their site, twitter, and via their podcast. They've really come into their own over the last five seasons.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/ari ... 22-preview

They're slotting Arizona as the #34 team in the nation, prior to adding Kim Aiken. Bart Torvik has us as the 33rd ranked team without Aiken, so the ranking is validated. I've requested an update from Torvik to add Aiken, and I assume he and the Three Man team would bump Arizona into the top 30. Aiken likely projects (via Bart Torvik) as Arizona's third best player heading into this season.

Here's their conclusion...

Bottom Line: Arizona might be getting overlooked on the national scale heading into this season. Despite the coaching change, the Cats have the ability to outperform last year’s squad, compete for a Pac 12 title, and crash the top 25. Tommy Lloyd should be a long-term solution at a program accustomed to success.

Quick reply from one of the three man weave dudes says he sees Arizona as a fringe top 25 team with the addition of Aiken. Still a question mark on point guard play which I think we all agree is fair.

Aiken is our 3rd best player?
Ouch

Postmaster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:16 pm Aiken is our 3rd best player?
Ouch

In reality and skill level..no. But he fills a void on our team that nobody else does. He also has more accomplishments on paper than others we think will be better.

Benn, Tubelis, Kerr, Pelle and Terry are likely better in my eyes, but they haven’t proven anything

For those jonesing for some bb tape

YoDeFoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:58 pm Quick reply from one of the three man weave dudes says he sees Arizona as a fringe top 25 team with the addition of Aiken. Still a question mark on point guard play which I think we all agree is fair.

I think Kerr will be just fine at PG. He won't control a game like Akinjo, but he's a good defender and shooter and solid distributor. We just need Mathurin, Tubelis and Larsson to create more because Kerr isn't the type of PG that is the engine.

Aiken helped a lot with depth. We're pretty ****ed if he's our third best player, but he fills a role that we really needed someone to fill.

We could be more than fringe top 25 if no one gets hurt and people play to potential. The flip side is we still basically need everyone to deliver consistently to be good. There isn't much room for slumps, injuries or other issues.

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:50 am

Postmaster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:16 pm Aiken is our 3rd best player?
Ouch

In reality and skill level..no. But he fills a void on our team that nobody else does. He also has more accomplishments on paper than others we think will be better.

Benn, Tubelis, Kerr, Pelle and Terry are likely better in my eyes, but they haven’t proven anything

The “third best” projection is an algorithm’s extrapolation based on what guys have already done if they have college experience or based on their recruiting ranking if they’re freshmen. Aiken was more productive last season than everyone returning outside of Benn and Azoulas.

I would hope that each of Pelle, Kerr, and Dalen step up. But I’ve come around on Aiken’s game after digging in deeper… he’s a very intelligent, crafty player. He reads the floor well and is decisive. And while he’s not an Arizona level of athlete he’s got good body control and positions himself well.

I knocked him hard out of the gate for not having the skill that Spiff referenced earlier - take only the shots you’re good at making - due to his propensity to take inefficient three pointers. But I think not needing to be the top dog on both ends of the floor in order for his team to have a chance will go well with his IQ in reducing those lower efficiency shots.

So yeah, I hope we have guys that grow beyond his abilities and production but equally I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised by what he brings to the table. Shades of Jesse Perry and Solomon Hill.

And because I never stop thinking about this stupid program (and I never stfu on here), another thought: Aiken has two years of remaining eligibility and he's said he plans to spend two years in Tucson. That's a boon to next year's roster, and not just because we'll need the depth and skill - he's a really incredible dude (as Choo noted previously). He's been a two year captain already (and one of the youngest in EWU history).

This profile on him is the best I've read so far: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/ ... ndout-kim/

YoDeFoe wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:55 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:50 am

Postmaster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:16 pm Aiken is our 3rd best player?
Ouch

In reality and skill level..no. But he fills a void on our team that nobody else does. He also has more accomplishments on paper than others we think will be better.

Benn, Tubelis, Kerr, Pelle and Terry are likely better in my eyes, but they haven’t proven anything

The “third best” projection is an algorithm’s extrapolation based on what guys have already done if they have college experience or based on their recruiting ranking if they’re freshmen. Aiken was more productive last season than everyone returning outside of Benn and Azoulas.

I would hope that each of Pelle, Kerr, and Dalen step up. But I’ve come around on Aiken’s game after digging in deeper… he’s a very intelligent, crafty player. He reads the floor well and is decisive. And while he’s not an Arizona level of athlete he’s got good body control and positions himself well.

I knocked him hard out of the gate for not having the skill that Spiff referenced earlier - take only the shots you’re good at making - due to his propensity to take inefficient three pointers. But I think not needing to be the top dog on both ends of the floor in order for his team to have a chance will go well with his IQ in reducing those lower efficiency shots.

So yeah, I hope we have guys that grow beyond his abilities and production but equally I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised by what he brings to the table. Shades of Jesse Perry and Solomon Hill.

I mean, the bottom line on offense is he's taken upwards of 5 threes a game in his college career and made 32% of them. You can't be a contributor at Arizona with that sort of inefficient volume.

That said, if he just can be a guy who hits open shots on offense and nothing more, his D and rebounding can make him a contributor. He just can't be a guy who wastes shots on offense.

His D and rebounding are encouraging. I'm not sure how big a role he will have, but if he can be more selective on offense, he can be a plus in an area we badly needed someone.

I’m always worried about how someone’s game translates from small conference to P5.

Postmaster wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:29 pm I’m always worried about how someone’s game translates from small conference to P5.

But yes, he's the exception, not the rule. And even though his shooting had a major drop off.

Postmaster wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:29 pm I’m always worried about how someone’s game translates from small conference to P5.

Honestly, I like that his strengths are D and rebounding. It may be better competition, but I think those skills are more likely to translate.

D and rebounding...people generally either know how to do them or don't. You need to learn rotations, but on ball...players just get it or they don't.

TJ's rise from little known Duquesne player to Arizona star to going undrafted in '15 to earning a spot with Philly to becoming one of the league's better role players over the last few seasons to just signing a 4 year/$35 million contract with Indy...I mean, it's one of the most impressive trajectories I can think of over the last decade. TJ is a legend.

For me, with a Miller team I always felt we would have a chance and keep it close. As recruiting bogged down a bit our defense wasn’t in that top level we were used too.

Now I wonder if CTL can provide us with a defense that will be as efficient as in the best Miller years? Shooting comes and goes but defense should be a hallmark

I bit the bullet and signed up for Synergy Sports again... Some notes from Aiken's last two seasons, below:

Pros:
* Excellent coming straight off of screens
* Excellent as a cutter
* Excellent as a pick and roll ball handler both scoring and kicking out
* 1.4 A:TO in the half-court is excellent for a forward, with a nice mix of dishing both 2pt and 3pt assists
* Shot 40% on unguarded catch and shoot attempts last season - good

Cons:
* Struggled to score in transition last season after excelling the season prior... maybe expelling too much energy on D
* Limited usage and success as the roll man in the PnR

It might be the case that in Lloyd's continuity ball screen offense (assuming that's what we get out of him) Aiken would be best served at the SF position where he can make reads off the screen and basket cuts when he's outside the action. He can play the four spot because he's a willing three point shooter who should hit the open looks he'll get at a nice clip, and he'll be able to find space on the weakside or as the action reverses. But his most efficient and productive offense outside of junk work around the basket has come from the kind of "read / react" offensive action that Lloyd preaches, attacking spacing weaknesses both on and off ball.

I think that kind of intelligence translates. He's not beating guys by jumping through them, he's decisively getting to his spot and using craftiness around the basket and a good looking jumper to score (his mid-range jumper is particularly deadly). At the Pac-12 level, he's going to get fewer chances to get a green light shot but as long as he can internalize the difference in speed and size into his decision-making he should be fine being efficient in a lower usage role.

Good video showing some of the above from Aiken - it's highlights, its lower level competition, its from the season prior to last. But you can still see the intelligence and craftiness in how Aiken attacks a defense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbVfUlf_QBs

Offensive profiles for our returning / incoming guys (with college experience) from Synergy Sports in the below Dropbox link, for anyone who is into that kind of stuff:

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/8apc9y3nfoyx ... m1n2a?dl=0

For every TJ or Kadeem we got Mark from USF and the Zack Morris guy from Bayside.

But I hope Aiken excels.

Postmaster wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:55 pm For every TJ or Kadeem we got Mark from USF and the Zack Morris guy from Bayside.

But I hope Aiken excels.

Mark wasn't supposed to have that role though, right? He was supposed to back-up Ray Smith (and then the UA president got involved, I think). But also... Mark was crazy efficient! He played starter's minutes and put up a 132 ORtg w/61% TS - it's one of the most efficient offensive seasons in the Miller era. He was first on the team in box plus minus.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sc ... /2016.html

Mark was a gem. We just didn't have it that seasons with Ray going down, Trier breaking his hand, and really the lack of a strong PG.

If we get Kim doing what Mark did on offense: taking a mid-teens usage, never turning it over, and hitting his shots... That'd be really nice.

I guess I was expecting a lot more scoring from Mark. Iirc he was supposed to be able to shoot 3s and take it to the hole.

Postmaster wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:55 pm For every TJ or Kadeem we got Mark from USF and the Zack Morris guy from Bayside.

But I hope Aiken excels.

Honestly, I think we had fairly decent success, sprt of with the exception of 2018-19 where the FBI gutted us to the point we were taking basically all grad transfers. Although Jeter was a pretty big disappointment.

Ryan Anderson was good. Mark Lyons was good. Gettings was solid. Tollefsen, solid. Akinjo was good. TJ and Kadeem were obviously standouts. Dylan Smith was frustrating but a competent defender and shooter.

I don't think any transfer straight up sucked to my memory, which is sort of rare.

Irish27 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:47 am

Jet needs to shit or get off the pot. And btw, going to work under Jason Kidd sounds like a fucking nightmare - dude's a sociopath. He got his college coach fired, blew up the old Nets organization (which hardly needed help in that regard), and coached the Bucks so hard that Larry Sanders admitted himself to the hospital and quit the game of basketball. That's leaving out all of the off court stuff (the DUI, the spousal abuse).

Jet's showing some suspect decision making here by telling Arizona he's our man while dancing with the Mavs - especially a Mav's staff led by Kidd.

Mark Tollefson was a golden god



He was just on a team with a lot of higher usage dudes.

As a general rule, it seems those that transferred out do not fare as well as those who transferred in. Maybe more so during the Lute era.

Merkin wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:30 pm As a general rule, it seems those that transferred out do not fare as well as those who transferred in. Maybe more so during the Lute era.

From the Miller era, I would take back Justin Simon and Alex Barcello and I think that's it.

That's so funny, I've thought the exact same thing (Simon and Barcello). In fact, if Simon had waited one more year to transfer we would have won the national championship in 2016-17. Simon was Big East DPOY, combine that with Kadeem Allen (All Conference defender) and you have a nightmare in the backcourt. The breakout performance from Blueitt in the tournament doesn't happen. And with the added defensive presence we would have gotten past Gonzaga with no problems.

YoDeFoe wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:48 pm

Merkin wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:30 pm As a general rule, it seems those that transferred out do not fare as well as those who transferred in. Maybe more so during the Lute era.

From the Miller era, I would take back Justin Simon and Alex Barcello and I think that's it.

No love for the GOAT Red/Blue performer in program history, Sidiki Johnson?

Bejarano was ok at Colorado State. Chol was meh. Victor was a damn good player and dumpster fire off the court. Akot and Doutrive are...ehhhh.

I do think this year's transfer crop will be good. T. Brown, Jemarl and Ira should all be good contributors.

But overall, Miller was a fairly good talent evaluator. The guys in mostly succeeded and the guys who got processed out generally were pretty blah.

Is Sidiki Johnson out of prison yet? Probably gets picked first in the games in the yard so has that going for him.

I guess I’ll expected mark and Zack Morris to be more impactful (higher usage) as opposed to high efficiency guys.

Turner and Johnson, what a combo they could have been.

But then the U of A President and weed got involved.

Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Referee Leon Wood.

I played against him in HS against St. Monica. I knew right then my b-ball career was going to be short lived.

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:53 am

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Referee Leon Wood.

I played against him in HS against St. Monica. I knew right then my b-ball career was going to be short lived.

Kind of like watching Fat Lever play and knowing there was no way I could keep up with him, ever

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Brian Williams wasn't too shabby either

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:11 pm

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Brian Williams wasn't too shabby either

Brian was a transfer into the program but I agree that he was great. Think what he could have done if he actually liked the game.

If Bison liked the game, he probably would not have ended up where he did. Pistons offered him a nice contract to stay.

But never seen a player who could turn it on as much as he did, when he wanted too. The opposing team did not want to make him angry.

Left handed big men don’t fair well after they leave AZ.

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:11 pm

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Brian Williams wasn't too shabby either

Speaking of Wood, Loren Woods wasn't bad himself.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:28 pm

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:11 pm

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Brian Williams wasn't too shabby either

Speaking of Wood, Loren Woods wasn't bad himself.

Nope, quite the player, but also a headcase.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:28 pm

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:11 pm

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:39 am Going way back to the Snowden era the most successful transfer out of all time, hands down, was Leon Wood.

Brian Williams wasn't too shabby either

Speaking of Wood, Loren Woods wasn't bad himself.

Loren Woods was a big reason we almost won it all in '01. Heck of a player while at AZ.

Speaking of which...let's name the all-time headcase team (obviously room for interpretation):

Mustafa Shakur
Isaiah Fox
Loren Woods
Gilbert Arenas (mostly after college)
Chris Rodgers (All-American selection)
Jamelle Horne (early on?)
Jordan Mayes

Salim
Rodgers
Woods
Horne
Rolf Jacobs

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:39 pm Speaking of which...let's name the all-time headcase team (obviously room for interpretation):

Mustafa Shakur
Isaiah Fox
Loren Woods
Gilbert Arenas (mostly after college)
Chris Rodgers (All-American selection)
Jamelle Horne (early on?)
Jordan Mayes

Miller era, I would put Josiah Turner, Sidiki Johnson and Devonaire Doutrive ahead of Mayes.

Josiah Turner has to be #1. Dude was a 5 star who did squat in college