2016-2017 Arizona Basketball

[gumby]

If we do well, Gonzaga does well. 1/2 in the West, according to Jerry Palm, who says new roster is a slight factor, not a huge one.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

He dropped UCLA down to a 3. Only good win is over Kentucky.

[EVCat]

some rebounding stat and KenPom stuff...

• Arizona is #20 in rebounding margin, which is out of 351 teams (94th percentile). 7.6 rebound margin.

• Our offensive rebounding percentage is 31.4%. That is good for #73 nationally. #73 sounds kind of shitty, but it is still in the upper 20% nationally. Since most teams play against their own talent level outside of some money games, the rebound % number is just what a team does against its own competition, so top 20% nationally is pretty good.

• Our defensive rebounding percentage is 75.8%, which is 57 nationally. That is in the 84th percentile, or top 16% in the nation (351 teams). Again, 57 sounds low, but do the math…if we are getting 75.8% of our defensive rebounds, we are only giving up 24.2% of potential boards to the offense. If our opponents collectively were a team, 24.2% offensive rebound percentage us would be #273 nationally.

• If our offensive rebounding percentage is 31.4% and our defensive rebounding percentage is 75.8%, we are 7.2% ahead overall in the rebounding game (total rebounding percentage is 107.2%). No idea where that puts us nationally. That would take more math than I care to do.

• KenPom has our overall rating at 11, AdjO at #25, and AdjD at #11. Our “luck” rating is 130. Gonzaga’s KenPom rating is #1, and UCLA still has the offensive efficiency lead, but they are #125 in AdjD. Of course, remember our numbers are based upon play without Trier.

[ChooChooCat]

Look forward to seeing our AdjO improve with Zo in the fold.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Look forward to seeing our AdjO improve with Zo in the fold.

Heck, even having PJC back is a boost. When we were a 7 man team with Chance and Pinder off the bench, that was far from an ideal offensive lineup.

[BigSkyCatinMT]

For reference here's the remaining schedules for the 3 actual contenders:

Arizona:

Wazzu, UW, @Oregon State, @Oregon, Stanford, Cal, @Wazzu, @UW, USC, UCLA, @ASU

Oregon:

@Utah, @Colorado, ASU, Arizona, @UCLA, @USC, Utah, Colorado, @Cal, @Stanford, @OSU

UCLA:

@USC, @Wazzu, @UW, Oregon, OSU, USC, @ASU, @Arizona, UW, Wazzu

What I notice: Oregon has Utah twice, and Cal. Both teams we are done with. Both teams have USC and UCLA at home, then each other. More dangerous teams for Oregon, though they have home court vs. the Cats.

[Puerco]

Oregon's got the advantage with that schedule. They get ASU at home, while we've got to go into the lion's den.

[EVCat]

Thought this was a pretty cogent (not the poster) observation from a Bruin fan (RussSmith) at BRO

Last thought, the reason we beat UK but lost to UA IMO was the offenses. UK runs a throw it up and go get the board offense so UCLA was able to get them to take bad shots, get the rebound, and run off it. UA doesn't do that, Miller ran clock, got good high percentage shots, and even on the misses, UA had floor balance to stop UCLA getting run outs. That was a huge key, taking good shots leads to better defense. Obviously we played UK much earlier in the year their offense is better now, but that IMO was the primary difference, UK is a great defensive team too, but they take lots of bad shots, UA doesn't

[azcat34]

For reference here's the remaining schedules for the 3 actual contenders:

Arizona:

Wazzu, UW, @Oregon State, @Oregon, Stanford, Cal, @Wazzu, @UW, USC, UCLA, @ASU

Oregon:

@Utah, @Colorado, ASU, Arizona, @UCLA, @USC, Utah, Colorado, @Cal, @Stanford, @OSU

UCLA:

@USC, @Wazzu, @UW, Oregon, OSU, USC, @ASU, @Arizona, UW, Wazzu

What I notice: Oregon has Utah twice, and Cal. Both teams we are done with. Both teams have USC and UCLA at home, then each other. More dangerous teams for Oregon, though they have home court vs. the Cats.

Cal is coming to McKale next month.

[PHXCATS]

Oregon's got the advantage with that schedule. They get ASU at home, while we've got to go into the lion's den.

Think it will be 60 40 this year

[BigSkyCatinMT]

Cal is coming to McKale next month.

My bad. Meant to point out that Cal was a road game for them and not us. What I was thinking and what I typed were 2 different things.

Oregons only advantage is the home game against Arizona - a win for the Quacks would give them the tie-breaker, or effectively a 2 game lead. Unless they use the 'last one to get a 1-seed is hosed' rule still.

[Chicat]

[Harvey Specter]

For reference here's the remaining schedules for the 3 actual contenders:

Arizona:

Wazzu, UW, @Oregon State, @Oregon, Stanford, Cal, @Wazzu, @UW, USC, UCLA, @ASU

Oregon:

@Utah, @Colorado, ASU, Arizona, @UCLA, @USC, Utah, Colorado, @Cal, @Stanford, @OSU

UCLA:

@USC, @Wazzu, @UW, Oregon, OSU, USC, @ASU, @Arizona, UW, Wazzu

We have a distinct advantage, even though we do not get the Ducks at home.

We have 4 games against teams in the upper half of the P12 standings, and only ONE of them is on the road.

They have 6 games against teams in the upper half of the P12 standings, and THREE of them are on the road.

We win in Eugene and it's pretty much time for Don Meredith to start singing...

[Bangkok Wildcat]

Thought this was a pretty cogent (not the poster) observation from a Bruin fan (RussSmith) at BRO

Last thought, the reason we beat UK but lost to UA IMO was the offenses. UK runs a throw it up and go get the board offense so UCLA was able to get them to take bad shots, get the rebound, and run off it. UA doesn't do that, Miller ran clock, got good high percentage shots, and even on the misses, UA had floor balance to stop UCLA getting run outs. That was a huge key, taking good shots leads to better defense. Obviously we played UK much earlier in the year their offense is better now, but that IMO was the primary difference, UK is a great defensive team too, but they take lots of bad shots, UA doesn't

Thanks EVCat.....I admire and respect RussSmith posts (of those I've seen)....he seems to be pretty knowledgeable and fair as a Bruin.....plus he has to deal with Jessie

[Olsondogg]

Couple of things on my mind.

First, I think Oregon has a tougher road...Brooks being injured again, although not "serious" is a blow. I expect him to be back for the UA game, but I also expect him to not be there for the Utah game...which should be their first loss. The game in Eugene would be big for winning the regular season conference...but aside from that I care more about the seeding in the tournament in Vegas.

Second, I don't see how you move the Zags out of a 1 seed out West if they do run the table. An undefeated team with their resume would ensure that. I think the Zags are better than they ever have been this year.

As far as beating uCla goes...yes, it was a fantastic win. Speaking of uCla, they have a great road win at UK and that's pretty much it. They have dropped two games against the top 2 in the PAC 12, one at home...and they barely beat Utah. Don't get me wrong, they are an outstanding offensive team...but anyone betting on them getting better at stopping other teams from scoring is kidding themselves. I asked my buddy (uCla grad) this past week "what happens when there is fatigue, foul trouble or the shots aren't falling?".

Now we know...

[rgdeuce]

take care of business this weekend and beat oregon and we're the 1 seed out west.

I seriously doubt we leap a Zags team that beat us easily and is still undefeated...despite RPI/SOS/whatever metric you want to throw out there.

And I can't imagine them giving out more than one #1 to west coast teams, so...go St Marys/BYU if you want a #1.

I wouldn't be too sure. If we ran that table that means we only have two losses to two top 15 teams, Gonzaga and Butler, both on neutral floors early in the season, without Trier. The tournament committee will look at Trier to some degree, and the Tournament committee has historically been a "what have you done for me lately" bunch. Our wins would be: @Oregon, @USC, @UCLA, UCLA, USC, Michigan State (neutral), @Cal. Utah may creep up into the top 50 RPI as well by then. 3 wins against teams who are currently and will likely finish in or very close to the top 10 in polls. Gonzaga on the other hand beat us without Trier (neutral), Akron (bubble team without a conference tourney championship), Iowa State (bubble team), Florida (currently ranked 25th, 0-4 vs RPI top 25), and Saint Mary's twice (ranked 21st, only impressive win @Dayton). Factor in the conference tournament, we are going to have another win against UCLA or Oregon on a neutral floor. Remember, we have the best resume win in college basketball.

We run the table, we are easily in the top 4 in polls because other teams are still going to lose. Despite our two extremely good losses, without Trier, we will have racked up four wins vs a top 10 team with three of them coming on road or neutral sites), plus three or four other impressive wins. Gonzaga's resume pales in comparison, their only big win will be against us when we were short handed, and few good wins against St Mary's, and the Florida win. My guess is Gonzaga gets shipped out for having the far inferior resume. Only thing that would kill us is if Oregon and UCLA start letting the other Pac 12 teams beat up on them, which would be somewhat mitigated by making our wins over those non-UCLA/Oregon teams better wins, but taking away the elite level wins.

[baconus66]

Am I remembering wrong or does the pac-12 award co-champions instead of using a tie-breaker?

I believe if we win out but lose to Oregon and Oregon loses just one other game we would be co-champs but the 2 seed in vegas based on head to head.

[rgdeuce]

Am I remembering wrong or does the pac-12 award co-champions instead of using a tie-breaker?

I believe if we win but lose to Oregon and Oregon loses just one other game we would be co-champs but the 2 seed in vegas based on head to head.

Correct

[TucsonClip]

• If our offensive rebounding percentage is 31.4% and our defensive rebounding percentage is 75.8%, we are 7.2% ahead overall in the rebounding game (total rebounding percentage is 107.2%). No idea where that puts us nationally. That would take more math than I care to do.

Total rebounding percentage is calculated differently. It would be all rebounds we grabbed (offense and defense) divided by the total number of chances available (offense and defense).

[ChooChooCat]

We need to get that 1 seed though. If we're the 2 then we likely get UCLA followed by Oregon. I would much rather get the 4 seed and the winner of Oregon/UCLA.

[Olsondogg]

We need to get that 1 seed though. If we're the 2 then we likely get UCLA followed by Oregon. I would much rather get the 4 seed and the winner of Oregon/UCLA.

This is exactly my thinking. The seeds in the PAC tourney matter.

I see Oregon dropping a few games in conference. Utah, AZ and uCla all will be L's. Maybe even a loss at Cal.

Everyone wants to throw dirt on uCla, but I don't. I think they get by USC...then they have the Oregon revenge game at home and nothing significant until McKale.

I am glad to see the UA team at full strength...and yes, that changes things. But this team is one game removed from almost blowing a game to USC that was all but over.

[baconus66]

We need to get that 1 seed though. If we're the 2 then we likely get UCLA followed by Oregon. I would much rather get the 4 seed and the winner of Oregon/UCLA.

This is exactly my thinking. The seeds in the PAC tourney matter.

I see Oregon dropping a few games in conference. Utah, AZ and uCla all will be L's. Maybe even a loss at Cal.

Everyone wants to throw dirt on uCla, but I don't. I think they get by USC...then they have the Oregon revenge game at home and nothing significant until McKale.

I am glad to see the UA team at full strength...and yes, that changes things. But this team is one game removed from almost blowing a game to USC that was all but over.

I think our late game struggles have been at least partially to blame on lack of depth. Bringing back Trier will help on that front.


I feel like we are at a slight advantage to win the conference at this point, but its still a toss up, and I agree it would be unwise to count out UCLA just yet.

We have the easier with @oregon and UCLA being the obvious red flags, but I've been a fan too long to feel too comfortable about Cal, @UW, or @ASU

Oregon has the hardest schedule with @utah, Arizona, @ucla being big threats and @rado and Utah not be gimmes either.

UCLA is somewhere in the middle (although obviously they need more pieces to fall around them with their two losses). @usc, Oregon, and @Arizona would be their toughest games.


At the end of the day our game @oregon may be the most important upcoming game in the conference race, but I dont think it's much stretch at all to think the loser of that game could still win the conference outright or UCLA sneaks in.

[gumby]

Note: We didn't have Trier and PJC against Zags. Cruz even got a minute, we were so short-handed.

[rgdeuce]

I completely forgot about that.

[Alieberman]

We need to get that 1 seed though. If we're the 2 then we likely get UCLA followed by Oregon. I would much rather get the 4 seed and the winner of Oregon/UCLA.

If we were 4 we would still probably have to play both Oregon and UCLA

ONLY THE 1 is safe from avoiding playing both

[ChooChooCat]

We need to get that 1 seed though. If we're the 2 then we likely get UCLA followed by Oregon. I would much rather get the 4 seed and the winner of Oregon/UCLA.

If we were 4 we would still probably have to play both Oregon and UCLA

ONLY THE 1 is safe from avoiding playing both

I'm not concerned with us being anything less than the 3 seed honestly.

[gumby]

So odd to talk about four Western teams being high seeds. I think one or two get shipped.

[ASUHATER!]

if Oregon loses 2-3 more games they could go east as a 3 seed or something. I could see Gonzaga being a 1 elsewhere if need be.

[prh]

The discussion about 1-2-3-4 is Pac12 tourney seeding, not NCAA seeding. Maybe we should move NCAA seeding discussion to the bracketology thread? I'm not sure but that might be a little easier to follow.

[Frybry02]

We are definitely not flying under the radar now. Being the hunter and not the, nationally perceived, hunted didn't last long.

[splitsecond]

So odd to talk about four Western teams being high seeds. I think one or two get shipped.

no kidding, I am not sure where this idea that we could have Gonzaga, Oregon and Ucla in our bracket came from. It has never worked that way before.

[ChooChooCat]

So odd to talk about four Western teams being high seeds. I think one or two get shipped.

no kidding, I am not sure where this idea that we could have Gonzaga, Oregon and Ucla in our bracket came from. It has never worked that way before.

Somebody said that?

I thought it was pretty clear that when referring to Gonzaga it had to do with the West Region in the NCAA tournament and when referring to Oregon and UCLA that was in regards to the Pac-12 tournament bracket.

[Bangkok Wildcat]

I hate looking past the Washington schools but looks like we're headed to Oregon as maybe a top 3 or 4 ranking? Wow, that's going to be a real mental challenge for this team.....I liked the 'under the radar treatment we got till enforcing our will on UCLA

[Puerco]

From a Pascoe piece:

“All four teams that make it here are gonna have earned their way here and each one of them will have a special story,” Hollis said. “Ultimately as a committee, all we care about is that the four best and most deserving teams advance their way to the Final Four.

“However, when a local team does make the Final Four, it brings an extra level of excitement. … If Arizona or UCLA or Gonzaga or Oregon were to advance here, it would bring an extra level of excitement, I would think.”

Mark Hollis is the chair of the selection committee, and he thinks that Gonzaga and Oregon are local teams to Glendale? Jeebus.

[waysouthcat]

USC just made our chances considerably better.

[PHXCATS]

I hate looking past the Washington schools but looks like we're headed to Oregon as maybe a top 3 or 4 ranking? Wow, that's going to be a real mental challenge for this team.....I liked the 'under the radar treatment we got till enforcing our will on UCLA

I am sorry but I hate the under the radar bs. If you want to be the best you need to believe you can be the best and that means none of this under the radar crap. Take up the bullseye and embrace it like the Cubs.

[PHXCATS]

From a Pascoe piece:

“All four teams that make it here are gonna have earned their way here and each one of them will have a special story,” Hollis said. “Ultimately as a committee, all we care about is that the four best and most deserving teams advance their way to the Final Four.

“However, when a local team does make the Final Four, it brings an extra level of excitement. … If Arizona or UCLA or Gonzaga or Oregon were to advance here, it would bring an extra level of excitement, I would think.”

Mark Hollis is the chair of the selection committee, and he thinks that Gonzaga and Oregon are local teams to Glendale? Jeebus.

Are Clemson and Alabama local to Tampa? See the Championship game pricing and popularity from 2016 to 2017.

Not a perfect example but I know a few Oregon and Gonzaga alumni here. Probably a lot more here than Tampa or Atlanta or Indiana and probably a lot more will travel to Glendale than those cities if they make it that far.

[CalStateTempe]

Tickets are going to be a bitch to get if the cats make it that far.

[pokinmik]

Tickets are going to be a bitch to get if the cats make it that far.

This is OUR year. I bought 4 all-session tickets almost a year ago! Already have my flight booked as well.

1997 & 2017!

[baconus66]

They're considered "local" because they're West coast but people forget just how tall this country is. It's 1300+ miles to drive between Phoenix and Glendale, which is about the same distance it would take to drive to Omaha, Nebraska

[PennZona20]

They're considered "local" because they're West coast but people forget just how tall this country is. It's 1300+ miles to drive between PHOENIX AND GLENDALE, which is about the same distance it would take to drive to Omaha, Nebraska

Man, Arizona is a bigger state than I remember.

[CalStateTempe]

Tickets are going to be a bitch to get if the cats make it that far.

This is OUR year. I bought 4 all-session tickets almost a year ago! Already have my flight booked as well.

1997 & 2017!

Dude that's awesome! Way to rep

[Olsondogg]

I hate looking past the Washington schools but looks like we're headed to Oregon as maybe a top 3 or 4 ranking? Wow, that's going to be a real mental challenge for this team.....I liked the 'under the radar treatment we got till enforcing our will on UCLA

I am sorry but I hate the under the radar bs. If you want to be the best you need to believe you can be the best and that means none of this under the radar crap. Take up the bullseye and embrace it like the Cubs.

Arizona is never under the radar...always with a target on the chest. However, I do like when the national media types are blowing hot air over everyone else, and UA just does what it does.

Take a look at the top 10...multiple teams will have picked up 2 losses this week.

[rgdeuce]

I hate looking past the Washington schools but looks like we're headed to Oregon as maybe a top 3 or 4 ranking? Wow, that's going to be a real mental challenge for this team.....I liked the 'under the radar treatment we got till enforcing our will on UCLA

I am sorry but I hate the under the radar bs. If you want to be the best you need to believe you can be the best and that means none of this under the radar crap. Take up the bullseye and embrace it like the Cubs.

I'm inclined to agree here. 1) We are Arizona, so we always have a bullseye on our back no matter where we are ranked, and 2) If you are a 1,2 or 3 seed, there are 13 plus teams in your region seeded lower than you, so there's another bullseye. I like embracing the bullseye and being tougher come March when the bullseye is inevitable. You want to be a warrior come March.

[Olsondogg]

Here's how I feel:

1. When I read about how great UA is, I worry that it will get to the players heads and that we will buy too much of the hype and will lose...so I hate it.

2. When I don't read enough about how great UA is, I feel like the program is being disrespected and that people aren't paying attention because they don't watch us....so I hate it.

[Chicat]

Here's how I feel:

1. When I read about how great UA is, I worry that it will get to the players heads and that we will buy too much of the hype and will lose...so I hate it.

2. When I don't read enough about how great UA is, I feel like the program is being disrespected and that people aren't paying attention because they don't watch us....so I hate it.

I think Gumby just shed a proud little tear....

[rgdeuce]

Crazy how much the dynamic of this team changed At the flip of a switch. Remember how important PJC was to us at one point of the season? Was crazy seeing the offense run through Trier in the second half, him breaking a pair of ankles and whizzing a pass by the help's head to the open man for a dunk, while PJC was stationary in the corner. Or running the pick and roll with Chance for an easy dunk. Kobi was our grinder for tough buckets when we needed them. Now, it looks like a situation where he may be a LOT quieter when Trier is on the floor, if they even share the floor that often.

Several different hands Miller can play here. I think Dusan, Lauri, Rawle, Trier and Allen may be best starting 5 in the country. Trier obviously is a different beast and can facilitate an offense now. Kadeem obviously the glue guy and lockdown defender. If it were me, I'd have him and Trier alternating who is playing off the ball after the offense gets set and lean in one direction or the other depending on how hot Trier's hand is that day and matchups. You watch what Trier was doing in the second half and what Lonzo Ball did against us, there really wasnt that much of a difference. Trier is obviously the more rounded scorer and Ball is the superior passer, but the end result is similarly deadly. How do you defender Lauri and Trier in a two man game? You cant. Dusan is nearly automatic inside and Rawle compliments the starters perfectly.

I think Comanches minutes stay up. Kobi's strength is mitigated by Trier's presence IMO, but obviously in a smaller lineup that team is going to be tough to stay with, just has to roll with things and understand hes not going to have quite as many big games and just needs to get buckets when they are there and play D. PJCs just going to have to make the most of his minutes and be solid when the team needs him to. As far as Pinder, Im just really not feeling him outside of emergency situations w guys in foul trouble and the occasional matchup problem. The offense really falls flat with him out on the floor and when he is out there it really means just one less weapon we are keeping in our pocket for no real reason other than maybe a little bit more rest for someone

[catgrad97]

deuce, good analysis, but just curious how you put Alkins over Kobi as the fifth starter at this point? I don't.

[prh]

deuce, good analysis, but just curious how you put Alkins over Kobi as the fifth starter at this point? I don't.

I like Alkins as 5th starter too. For me, it's really about optimizing starting and reserve lineups. Atkins as a cog in a Trier/Markkanen lineup and Kobi as a playmaker/scorer in PJC/Commanche lineup seems to be a better usage of talents than if you flipped those two. Yes lineups mix and match and aren't exclusive, but at a simplistic level, that seems to be the optimal offensive lineup (and maybe defensively too if Kobi continues to put forth effort on that end of the floor).

[Bangkok Wildcat]

I hate looking past the Washington schools but looks like we're headed to Oregon as maybe a top 3 or 4 ranking? Wow, that's going to be a real mental challenge for this team.....I liked the 'under the radar treatment we got till enforcing our will on UCLA

I am sorry but I hate the under the radar bs. If you want to be the best you need to believe you can be the best and that means none of this under the radar crap. Take up the bullseye and embrace it like the Cubs.

Normally I think like you...however the injuries and bad luck that have hit this team early on were huge....rethinking things, I see your point....that game at Oregon is looming large right now.....wouldn't be surprised if that was the decider for the P12 crown.

[Bangkok Wildcat]

Crazy how much the dynamic of this team changed At the flip of a switch. Remember how important PJC was to us at one point of the season? Was crazy seeing the offense run through Trier in the second half, him breaking a pair of ankles and whizzing a pass by the help's head to the open man for a dunk, while PJC was stationary in the corner. Or running the pick and roll with Chance for an easy dunk. Kobi was our grinder for tough buckets when we needed them. Now, it looks like a situation where he may be a LOT quieter when Trier is on the floor, if they even share the floor that often.

Several different hands Miller can play here. I think Dusan, Lauri, Rawle, Trier and Allen may be best starting 5 in the country. Trier obviously is a different beast and can facilitate an offense now. Kadeem obviously the glue guy and lockdown defender. If it were me, I'd have him and Trier alternating who is playing off the ball after the offense gets set and lean in one direction or the other depending on how hot Trier's hand is that day and matchups. You watch what Trier was doing in the second half and what Lonzo Ball did against us, there really wasnt that much of a difference. Trier is obviously the more rounded scorer and Ball is the superior passer, but the end result is similarly deadly. How do you defender Lauri and Trier in a two man game? You cant. Dusan is nearly automatic inside and Rawle compliments the starters perfectly.

I think Comanches minutes stay up. Kobi's strength is mitigated by Trier's presence IMO, but obviously in a smaller lineup that team is going to be tough to stay with, just has to roll with things and understand hes not going to have quite as many big games and just needs to get buckets when they are there and play D. PJCs just going to have to make the most of his minutes and be solid when the team needs him to. As far as Pinder, Im just really not feeling him outside of emergency situations w guys in foul trouble and the occasional matchup problem. The offense really falls flat with him out on the floor and when he is out there it really means just one less weapon we are keeping in our pocket for no real reason other than maybe a little bit more rest for someone

As usual, I like your take on things rgdeuce....nice post. Thanks!