Bear Down Wildcats

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:18 pm Not gonna put too much stock in 3pt shooting. Gimme defense and a team that knows how to manufacture offense. We actually have that ability, but we've only played our best ball here and there.

I don't know if there's a way to account for "timely" 3pt shooting, but I think this is a much more critical figure than overall 3pt efficiency. Like, which teams hit a high % of 3pt shots in the last five minutes of a game decided by under 10 points?

Like in the Iowa MSU game?

Another stat or two that would be nice are, losses to teams playing out of their minds, and wins over teams that just took a crap out there.

Or maybe you could call it games you should have won but didn't and game you should have lost but squeaked it out.

What gives me solace and hope is that other top ranked teams have screwed the pooch this year. There are no real dominant teams imo so far. Even Alabama looks beatable.

But the problem is we haven't been too consistent during the Pac regular season and have taken some gut punches. This weekends LA series will tell me a lot about the fortitude of this team. Are they ready for the fight or will they let SC and UCLA dictate the game?

This team's back has yet to be against the wall so if they are truly serious FF contenders they need to go out and prove it.

And it starts tonight.

We need All American Zu to show up in March.

If February Zu continues... we have no chance

Alieberman wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:31 am We need All American Zu to show up in March.

If February Zu continues... we have no chance

This 100%.

I'm old enough to remember when he had the Pac POY race locked up.

Will be interested in seeing if they end up #1 in KenPom offensive efficiency in the league after this weekend.

Can we win @Pauley?

If we do, would be one of the bigger reg season wins in recent memory.

Food For Thought:

Saturday's game vs UCLA will be our 8th game this season vs the Top 45 in NET rankings.

We are currently 7-0

Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:03 am Food For Thought:

Saturday's game vs UCLA will be our 8th game this season vs the Top 45 in NET rankings.

We are currently 7-0

We're also 7-0 vs the top 35 in Kenpom.

We are 25-5 and we haven't lost to any of the tougher teams on our schedule.

Such a head scratcher.

Tomorrow's game is arguably the hardest reg season game we'll have. 4 foot Mick and his 7th year juniors haven't lost at home, and they always get that home cookin (FT disparity). 27 FTs to ASU's 20 yesterday.

Gonna give the Cats the respect they've earned, though. AZ 76, ucla 72. Tubelis wins POY.

DIE TROLLOPS! DIE! DIE! FUCKING DIE!

What Dovecanyoncat said.

You know how every year in the tourney there are a couple teams that catch fire and exceed tourney expectations? Happens EVERY YEAR. It's often a team from a major conference. Doesn't that phenomenon have to come around at some point? When was the last time AZ truly exceeded tourney expectations?

2, 7, and 20 go down today. 11, 12, and 22 are losing.

azgreg wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:02 pm 2, 7, and 20 go down today. 11, 12, and 22 are losing.

If we win today, I'd think we'll just switch places with ucla in the rankings. If they win, they'll move up to 2 or 3, depending on what Kansas does.

11 and 12 go down.

azgreg wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:32 pm 11 and 12 go down.

And #3 down big.

22 goes down.

This year has been brutal on the ranked.

Down goes 3.

azgreg wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 3:51 pm This year has been brutal on the ranked.

I’m guessing it’s been even more brutal on the unranked!

Except for Alabama…they have been killer.

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 4:56 pm Except for Alabama…they have been killer.

Bama's best win of the season is without question @Houston. Beyond that, they've beaten Mich State, UNC and all the good teams in their league not named Tennessee.

If Bama wins the SEC tourney, or even finishes 2nd, I think they're a 1.

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:10 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 4:56 pm Except for Alabama…they have been killer.

Bama's best win of the season is without question @Houston. Beyond that, they've beaten Mich State, UNC and all the good teams in their league not named Tennessee.

If Bama wins the SEC tourney, or even finishes 2nd, I think they're a 1.

You missed my point…

WOW....I got it.

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 8:48 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:10 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 4:56 pm Except for Alabama…they have been killer.

Bama's best win of the season is without question @Houston. Beyond that, they've beaten Mich State, UNC and all the good teams in their league not named Tennessee.

If Bama wins the SEC tourney, or even finishes 2nd, I think they're a 1.

You missed my point…

It’s a Brandon Miller joke. I was just looking at Bama more seriously.

With today's results, next up we get a Stanford team that beat us in Palo Alto, but didn't have to play us in McKale. Then, if ASU beats USC, we'd get to play an ASU team after their greatest accomplishment in their hoops history, and completely negate it with a 1-2 season record and likely denying them an NCAA berth. Then, we could nail UCLA with a 1-2 season record and deny them a 1 seed and watch Mick The Dick's shiny little bald head explode. I do believe we've got some positive motivation in front of us, and very little risk or downside. Let's have some fun!

Let's swoop in like flying monkeys and take Mick's head off.

Clark is a good player, but is he really the difference between them being a title contender and being merely another tourney team? Feels like that's the narrative a lot of outlets are pushing this week. Clark isn't their best player. He's their 3rd best player.

Worry about Stanford first then we will see how UCLA plays with a slightly different line up. One at a time.

TheCat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:03 pm Worry about Stanford first then we will see how UCLA plays with a slightly different line up. One at a time.

Must we embrace our doom serially? Or can we just descend into despair in an all encompassing and comprehensive way?

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:37 am Clark is a good player, but is he really the difference between them being a title contender and being merely another tourney team? Feels like that's the narrative a lot of outlets are pushing this week. Clark isn't their best player. He's their 3rd best player.

Losing your 3rd best player would likely hamper most title contending teams. We lost Brandon Ashley and went from possible undefeated season to losing an elite eight game on the west coast.

That team had Aaron Gordon, RHJ, Nick Johnson, TJ and Tarc. He was possibly our 5th best player.

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:18 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:37 am Clark is a good player, but is he really the difference between them being a title contender and being merely another tourney team? Feels like that's the narrative a lot of outlets are pushing this week. Clark isn't their best player. He's their 3rd best player.

Losing your 3rd best player would likely hamper most title contending teams. We lost Brandon Ashley and went from possible undefeated season to losing an elite eight game on the west coast.

That team had Aaron Gordon, RHJ, Nick Johnson, TJ and Tarc. He was possibly our 5th best player.

Would love to see a metric that accounts for Ashley's overall value to that team vs. Clark's this year.

[quote
Would love to see a metric that accounts for Ashley's overall value to that team vs. Clark's this year.
[/quote]

Using PER:

17.9 Ashley - 4th highest on team behind Johnson, Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson
24.2 Clark - 2nd highest on team behind Jacquez

I don't think all that shit matters. Before the last game with UCLA I predicted that it would come down to turnovers and rebounds which makes sense since we had a higher shooting FG% and 3pt percentage. Singleton was the wildcard and he performed well. If we match up with them again I think it will be the same variables.

I feel like no one is talking about Ced’s play

He is playing his best basketball all season at the right time.

Huge

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:12 pm I feel like no one is talking about Ced’s play

He is playing his best basketball all season at the right time.

Huge

Good point. Feel the same way about Pelle who has been solid the last couple of games.

Ced is Key Largo at the right time of the year.

Ced and Ramey have probably been the most impactful 5th year/grad transfer type guys, right behind Lyons.

Keys on our side tonight will be Ced keeping his recent magic. He has not had a good game against UCLA this year. Remy to bounce back from a disastrous game in LA. I think he had 6 TO's and shot poorly.

Then rebounds and turnovers. We shot a better % even in LA.

Bona will play or they will get a steady diet of Ballo.

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:19 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:12 pm I feel like no one is talking about Ced’s play

He is playing his best basketball all season at the right time.

Huge

Good point. Feel the same way about Pelle who has been solid the last couple of games.

He has been, outside of free throws. Dude used to never miss. And occasional unforced turnovers, but besides that he has been playing really well. He just seems so much quicker and stronger.

I am just so happy for this team. Especially for kids like Ced and Ramey who looked at our program and wanted to be a part of something special. Even though they didn’t win the regular season title, this season has been incredible.

Gonna go out on a limb: this year's team has as good a chance as any over the past decade to reach the FF. Everything we lost last year is offset by the improvement in maturity with Tubelis and Ballo, the productivity of our 5th year senior transfers Ramey and Henderson, steady play from Kriisa and Larsson, and the unexpected immediate value of Boswell.

This team has plenty of flaws starting with the defense of Kerr against dominate strong guards. Ramey's foul shooting is a mystery and Ballo's is either okay or non existent. The biggest improvement this year is Pelle. His defense last night was unreal and he has found some aggressiveness on offense. If a team tries to out score us I think we will be okay. We just beat the number one defense in the nation for the second time, but let's face it that game was a toss up that we could and probably should have lost with our play in the last 90 seconds. Somehow we fought back and Ramey hit a big shot and Tyger missed a free throw to tie it up. I don't think we have a strong chance to make the final four.

What is equally important is that potential transfers have seen they can have a starting role here and excel. We really need a guard that can drive and score. Lyon's with passing ability and unselfish. We will also need a deadeye if we can find one with Ramey leaving.

TheCat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:26 pm What is equally important is that potential transfers have seen they can have a starting role here and excel.

I imagine a lot of mid-major players like Henderson would really want to experience basketball life in an elite program with the best of everything from food to travel.

How does Campbell get to opponents games, take a bus? The Campbell arena:

It’s funny that Ramey would win same spot if he had stayed in TX

It's really hard not to love this team.

-They have played their best basketball in the tourneys they have played (Maui / Pac)

- They never lost 2 games in a row

- They have come back and won vs every team they had lost to

These are all great signs of a team that could go far in March....

Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:17 am It's really hard not to love this team.

-They have played their best basketball in the tourneys they have played (Maui / Pac)

- They never lost 2 games in a row

- They have come back and won vs every team they had lost to

These are all great signs of a team that could go far in March....

I agree with all of this however....

During the reg. season, they have failed to take the "step" every time when they could've climbed to being a top 4 team (and #1 seed) and stay there.

After the Maui bump, let down at Utah. Then they rebound and then have another let down at home vs Wazzu and lose their gains again. Ditto vs Stanford and ASU later. They either did this repeatedly because they get too confident or get lackadaisical or just didn't have the urgency and intensity match.

Either way, this has happened too many times for it to become a pattern. When this team looks like they'll take the next step, they have a let down of a game. I hate to say this, but if we're mapping the season's roadmap overlayed over the tournament, they go far but falter when they need to take the next step up but fail to do so again - the Elite Eight.

Imo, the reason the team has done this is because they don't have any dynamism as a team and/or because they don't have a player (like a Kemba for example, its almost always a guard) that can just take over when things don't go well or shots aren't going in.

Totally agree with all of this.

But with this team- if we get to elite 8 game with Alabama.... I think the team will be locked in and may pull the upset. I'm more worried if we get to this team vs someone who has upset Alabama.... and we aren't locked in because it's an easier oponent.

Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:59 am Totally agree with all of this.

But with this team- if we get to elite 8 game with Alabama.... I think the team will be locked in and may pull the upset. I'm more worried if we get to this team vs someone who has upset Alabama.... and we aren't locked in because it's an easier oponent.

Absolutely no excuse to not be “locked in”, whatever that means!!

Against Alabama, we’ll definitely need to be “locked-and-loaded”!!