Re: let's talk '17
Posted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:55 pm
DraftExpress updates today. In most pertinent news, Rawle is still in 2018, for what that's worth.
This is EXACTLY what I thought as I read it. What is good for Pitt isn't necessarily good for Arizona. That might have been what they needed, so he did it.ChooChooCat wrote:Why would one assume he would have to play a similar role on defense though? One guy being a 3 point specialist on offense does not equate to him being limited or being solely asked to defend the 3 point line. I get the lack of offensive board argument though.Puerco wrote:The whole argument is flawed because Pitt had Johnson camped out 2 feet behind the three point line in every clip I've seen. If one assumes he played a similar role on defense, then the rebounds aren't going to be easy to come by. Doesn't matter how tall you are when you're that far from the rim.
Okay, so I admit having the same thought as I was composing my mail. Since you caught me, you're rewarded with some research.ChooChooCat wrote:Why would one assume he would have to play a similar role on defense though? One guy being a 3 point specialist on offense does not equate to him being limited or being solely asked to defend the 3 point line. I get the lack of offensive board argument though.Puerco wrote:The whole argument is flawed because Pitt had Johnson camped out 2 feet behind the three point line in every clip I've seen. If one assumes he played a similar role on defense, then the rebounds aren't going to be easy to come by. Doesn't matter how tall you are when you're that far from the rim.
Yay rewards! Good stuff my man, appreciate the numbers and insight.Puerco wrote:Okay, so I admit having the same thought as I was composing my mail. Since you caught me, you're rewarded with some research.ChooChooCat wrote:Why would one assume he would have to play a similar role on defense though? One guy being a 3 point specialist on offense does not equate to him being limited or being solely asked to defend the 3 point line. I get the lack of offensive board argument though.Puerco wrote:The whole argument is flawed because Pitt had Johnson camped out 2 feet behind the three point line in every clip I've seen. If one assumes he played a similar role on defense, then the rebounds aren't going to be easy to come by. Doesn't matter how tall you are when you're that far from the rim.
Cam Johnson's total rebound percentage was pretty meh at 8%. But like we speculated, his ORB% is miserable, 2%, one of the worst on the team. However, his DRB% is 13% which is by far and away the best of any Pitt guard. The next highest is at 9%. Not bad.
His true shooting numbers are second on the team, and his box plus minus is the best by a considerable margin, all while only having an average usage rate. You could easily make the argument that Cam Johnson was statistically Pitt's best player.
Puerco wrote:Okay, so I admit having the same thought as I was composing my mail. Since you caught me, you're rewarded with some research.ChooChooCat wrote:Why would one assume he would have to play a similar role on defense though? One guy being a 3 point specialist on offense does not equate to him being limited or being solely asked to defend the 3 point line. I get the lack of offensive board argument though.Puerco wrote:The whole argument is flawed because Pitt had Johnson camped out 2 feet behind the three point line in every clip I've seen. If one assumes he played a similar role on defense, then the rebounds aren't going to be easy to come by. Doesn't matter how tall you are when you're that far from the rim.
Cam Johnson's total rebound percentage was pretty meh at 8%. But like we speculated, his ORB% is miserable, 2%, one of the worst on the team. However, his DRB% is 13% which is by far and away the best of any Pitt guard. The next highest is at 9%. Not bad.
His true shooting numbers are second on the team, and his box plus minus is the best by a considerable margin, all while only having an average usage rate. You could easily make the argument that Cam Johnson was statistically Pitt's best player.
He is a very good prospect, incredibly athletic, tough, has a developing offensive game, plays defense. The NBA draft is mostly about prospects instead of impact, NBA-ready players.Beachcat97 wrote:Rawle one and done...really didn't see that coming. He had a good season, sure, but he's a guy I thought we'd be able to keep for a while. If he somehow goes in the 1st round, well, good for him. If he's a 2nd rounder, he must just really dislike school.
If I'm an NBA GM, I still haven't seen enough of Alkins to overcome my doubts, which is why I think he needs at least another year. Right now, he's a "maybe" NBA talent. I realize there are no guarantees with any prospect. Alkins has shown glimpses that he could be a real NBA talent. But his game is still inconsistent and rough around the edges in some parts. And the skills he has there is a lot to like. His toughness and strength both stand out. But basketball is also a game of skill and finesse. When I look at TJ McConnell, I see a player who knows when to push and when to pull. Perhaps the D league is a viable option for Alkins to refine his game. Whether he spends next year in the NBA minors or at Arizona, he could ultimately wind up in the same place down the road. But if he leaves now, there's no turning back. I just don't see the need to rush things, especially when he's only had one year of college ball.midnightx wrote:He is a very good prospect, incredibly athletic, tough, has a developing offensive game, plays defense. The NBA draft is mostly about prospects instead of impact, NBA-ready players.Beachcat97 wrote:Rawle one and done...really didn't see that coming. He had a good season, sure, but he's a guy I thought we'd be able to keep for a while. If he somehow goes in the 1st round, well, good for him. If he's a 2nd rounder, he must just really dislike school.
Too late to reel in Bowen?
Unfortunately most NBA GMs are little bitches who continue to draft guys who end up in the D-league because they are not ready, which is where Rawle will spend 2-3 years if he is stupid enough to leave right now.zonagrad wrote:If I'm an NBA GM, I still haven't seen enough of Alkins to overcome my doubts, which is why I think he needs at least another year. Right now, he's a "maybe" NBA talent. I realize there are no guarantees with any prospect. Alkins has shown glimpses that he could be a real NBA talent. But his game is still inconsistent and rough around the edges in some parts. And the skills he has there is a lot to like. His toughness and strength both stand out. But basketball is also a game of skill and finesse. When I look at TJ McConnell, I see a player who knows when to push and when to pull. Perhaps the D league is a viable option for Alkins to refine his game. Whether he spends next year in the NBA minors or at Arizona, he could ultimately wind up in the same place down the road. But if he leaves now, there's no turning back. I just don't see the need to rush things, especially when he's only had one year of college ball.midnightx wrote:He is a very good prospect, incredibly athletic, tough, has a developing offensive game, plays defense. The NBA draft is mostly about prospects instead of impact, NBA-ready players.Beachcat97 wrote:Rawle one and done...really didn't see that coming. He had a good season, sure, but he's a guy I thought we'd be able to keep for a while. If he somehow goes in the 1st round, well, good for him. If he's a 2nd rounder, he must just really dislike school.
Too late to reel in Bowen?
That's not the NBA situation. Roughly 20-25 draftees a year have NBA careers longer than two years. NBA teams are aware that if you're not drafting in the lottery, it's hit or miss on whether you get a contributor. In the second round, it's more like a 75% chance you're going to miss and 25% you hit.splitsecond wrote:Unfortunately most NBA GMs are little bitches who continue to draft guys who end up in the D-league because they are not ready, which is where Rawle will spend 2-3 years if he is stupid enough to leave right now.zonagrad wrote:If I'm an NBA GM, I still haven't seen enough of Alkins to overcome my doubts, which is why I think he needs at least another year. Right now, he's a "maybe" NBA talent. I realize there are no guarantees with any prospect. Alkins has shown glimpses that he could be a real NBA talent. But his game is still inconsistent and rough around the edges in some parts. And the skills he has there is a lot to like. His toughness and strength both stand out. But basketball is also a game of skill and finesse. When I look at TJ McConnell, I see a player who knows when to push and when to pull. Perhaps the D league is a viable option for Alkins to refine his game. Whether he spends next year in the NBA minors or at Arizona, he could ultimately wind up in the same place down the road. But if he leaves now, there's no turning back. I just don't see the need to rush things, especially when he's only had one year of college ball.midnightx wrote:He is a very good prospect, incredibly athletic, tough, has a developing offensive game, plays defense. The NBA draft is mostly about prospects instead of impact, NBA-ready players.Beachcat97 wrote:Rawle one and done...really didn't see that coming. He had a good season, sure, but he's a guy I thought we'd be able to keep for a while. If he somehow goes in the 1st round, well, good for him. If he's a 2nd rounder, he must just really dislike school.
Too late to reel in Bowen?
The NBA is a lifetime dream. Even if the player is realistic and thinks there's only a 25% chance he makes it, wouldn't you jump at a 25% chance to achieve your lifetime dream?CalStateTempe wrote:Then rawle too is stupid is he leaves
Why do all these kids, want to leave school? Is it that bad? Your minds of the fucking castle at UofA and you'd rather shelp from midsize market at best to regional center on a bus with pit stops at Wendy's an overweight midwestern girls? You'd have more fun on farmers only.
I just don't get it.
Most people have a lifetime dream. Unless you are inordinately talented, which Rawle, Kobi, and Chance are not, how smart is it to take a shortcut to achieve it? I don't get it either.Spaceman Spiff wrote:The NBA is a lifetime dream. Even if the player is realistic and thinks there's only a 25% chance he makes it, wouldn't you jump at a 25% chance to achieve your lifetime dream?CalStateTempe wrote:Then rawle too is stupid is he leaves
Why do all these kids, want to leave school? Is it that bad? Your minds of the fucking castle at UofA and you'd rather shelp from midsize market at best to regional center on a bus with pit stops at Wendy's an overweight midwestern girls? You'd have more fun on farmers only.
I just don't get it.
Most players are where they are due to a belief in themselves. I guarantee that they are thinking they're the success story in the second round.
No one dreams of college success. Arizona isn't the goal. For non-potential pros or fans, people frequently don't get that.
You were looking at the same stuff I was man, which is why I asked about the comment ripping on his rebounding. I dont have the benefit of watching film of the kid and I'm sure all of us dont either, so I was just going off what was available which looked pretty good to me. His offensive efficiency and a few other things also stats also jumped out at me. Plus: he has experience, has proven to be a solid player in the premier basketball conference in the country, has length, and both Kentucky and Arizona are sweating him. Easy math to me. He brings several things that would greatly help next year's team, the only knock being concerns over his defense, which apparently isn't Bowen's strong suit either.Puerco wrote: Okay, so I admit having the same thought as I was composing my mail. Since you caught me, you're rewarded with some research.
Cam Johnson's total rebound percentage was pretty meh at 8%. But like we speculated, his ORB% is miserable, 2%, one of the worst on the team. However, his DRB% is 13% which is by far and away the best of any Pitt guard. The next highest is at 9%. Not bad.
His true shooting numbers are second on the team, and his box plus minus is the best by a considerable margin, all while only having an average usage rate. You could easily make the argument that Cam Johnson was statistically Pitt's best player.
Alkins would not be a waste of a 2nd round pick. If he doesn't go in the 2nd round, someone will pick him up as an undrafted free agent. I personally think he should stay, but you cant rule out his NBA career if he leaves now because he has NBA talent, and the things he needs to work on can be worked on in the D League. Could be the same issue if he came back next year, you never know. He's taking the riskier route, but I can guarantee you there are plenty of GMs who like the kid and see the potential for him to be someone who can bring quite a bit to the table coming off an NBA team's bench down the road.zonagrad wrote:
If I'm an NBA GM, I still haven't seen enough of Alkins to overcome my doubts, which is why I think he needs at least another year. Right now, he's a "maybe" NBA talent. I realize there are no guarantees with any prospect. Alkins has shown glimpses that he could be a real NBA talent. But his game is still inconsistent and rough around the edges in some parts. And the skills he has there is a lot to like. His toughness and strength both stand out. But basketball is also a game of skill and finesse. When I look at TJ McConnell, I see a player who knows when to push and when to pull. Perhaps the D league is a viable option for Alkins to refine his game. Whether he spends next year in the NBA minors or at Arizona, he could ultimately wind up in the same place down the road. But if he leaves now, there's no turning back. I just don't see the need to rush things, especially when he's only had one year of college ball.
I think the D League is better for players, although it depends highly on the player.CalStateTempe wrote:The thing is spiff, I do get that, but as in most things in life, I prefer to put myself in a position To "win" and capitalize on dreams. I love the U, but I'm not blind to fandom to think that college ball is what a lot of Arizona players aspire to.
Is rawle's odds of achieving his dream better at this point in his college career or after second year of seasoning at Arizona? I'd say the former only if he fears he's gonna get exposed, which then it really doesn't matter since he'll be exposed in the D league anyway.
Michael Wright too. MW knew that his only shot at the league was at the 3. MW told Lute he would stay for his senior year if Lute would let him play out there. Lute of course said no. MW left, and never get a cup of coffee. RIP Wildcat!Spaceman Spiff wrote: In college, coaches care about developing players, but are paid to win. Think about Hassan Adams. Lute played him at the 4 for long stretches, which stunted his wing development. Lute was playing to win.
What about Rawle Alkins is incredibly athletic exactly? Don't get me wrong I love a lot about the guy, but if he was remotely in the realm of incredibly athletic we wouldn't be discussing him going undrafted in this draft or 2nd round in the following draft.midnightx wrote:He is a very good prospect, incredibly athletic, tough, has a developing offensive game, plays defense. The NBA draft is mostly about prospects instead of impact, NBA-ready players.Beachcat97 wrote:Rawle one and done...really didn't see that coming. He had a good season, sure, but he's a guy I thought we'd be able to keep for a while. If he somehow goes in the 1st round, well, good for him. If he's a 2nd rounder, he must just really dislike school.
Too late to reel in Bowen?
I agree with a lot in this post, but I don't think it applies to Rawle Alkins whatsoever next season. The guy is playing the position he would play in the pros at Arizona as he did last year, has for sure starter minutes guaranteed, and will get plenty development priority in the areas he needs it in i.e. ballhandling and shooting. Yes Miller's priority is and should be winning, but Rawle's continual development plays into Miller's priority for next season.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I think the D League is better for players, although it depends highly on the player.CalStateTempe wrote:The thing is spiff, I do get that, but as in most things in life, I prefer to put myself in a position To "win" and capitalize on dreams. I love the U, but I'm not blind to fandom to think that college ball is what a lot of Arizona players aspire to.
Is rawle's odds of achieving his dream better at this point in his college career or after second year of seasoning at Arizona? I'd say the former only if he fears he's gonna get exposed, which then it really doesn't matter since he'll be exposed in the D league anyway.
In college, coaches care about developing players, but are paid to win. Think about Hassan Adams. Lute played him at the 4 for long stretches, which stunted his wing development. Lute was playing to win.
In the D League, coaches are there to develop. No D League coach is getting fired if they develop players and lose every single game. That is the entire thrust. Winning isn't secondary, it's basically not existent.
Soph year, Adams got the most run down low. That's when the Top 6 minutes went to Adams, Frye, Iggy, Shakur, Salim, Rodgers. Then big dropoff to Radenovic. Fox only played two games.ChooChooCat wrote:I agree with a lot in this post, but I don't think it applies to Rawle Alkins whatsoever next season. The guy is playing the position he would play in the pros at Arizona as he did last year, has for sure starter minutes guaranteed, and will get plenty development priority in the areas he needs it in i.e. ballhandling and shooting. Yes Miller's priority is and should be winning, but Rawle's continual development plays into Miller's priority for next season.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I think the D League is better for players, although it depends highly on the player.CalStateTempe wrote:The thing is spiff, I do get that, but as in most things in life, I prefer to put myself in a position To "win" and capitalize on dreams. I love the U, but I'm not blind to fandom to think that college ball is what a lot of Arizona players aspire to.
Is rawle's odds of achieving his dream better at this point in his college career or after second year of seasoning at Arizona? I'd say the former only if he fears he's gonna get exposed, which then it really doesn't matter since he'll be exposed in the D league anyway.
In college, coaches care about developing players, but are paid to win. Think about Hassan Adams. Lute played him at the 4 for long stretches, which stunted his wing development. Lute was playing to win.
In the D League, coaches are there to develop. No D League coach is getting fired if they develop players and lose every single game. That is the entire thrust. Winning isn't secondary, it's basically not existent.
On a side note how many seasons did Lute play Hassan at the 4? I remember his frosh year for sure, where Lute even used him as the jump ball guy which is crazy. During the latter end of Lute's tenure at Arizona he had as many issues recruiting quality 4 men as Miller does with point guards.
If I'm talking in Rawle's case, I'd be more worried that I lose touches to Trier and Ayton and am at best a third option.ChooChooCat wrote:I agree with a lot in this post, but I don't think it applies to Rawle Alkins whatsoever next season. The guy is playing the position he would play in the pros at Arizona as he did last year, has for sure starter minutes guaranteed, and will get plenty development priority in the areas he needs it in i.e. ballhandling and shooting. Yes Miller's priority is and should be winning, but Rawle's continual development plays into Miller's priority for next season.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I think the D League is better for players, although it depends highly on the player.CalStateTempe wrote:The thing is spiff, I do get that, but as in most things in life, I prefer to put myself in a position To "win" and capitalize on dreams. I love the U, but I'm not blind to fandom to think that college ball is what a lot of Arizona players aspire to.
Is rawle's odds of achieving his dream better at this point in his college career or after second year of seasoning at Arizona? I'd say the former only if he fears he's gonna get exposed, which then it really doesn't matter since he'll be exposed in the D league anyway.
In college, coaches care about developing players, but are paid to win. Think about Hassan Adams. Lute played him at the 4 for long stretches, which stunted his wing development. Lute was playing to win.
In the D League, coaches are there to develop. No D League coach is getting fired if they develop players and lose every single game. That is the entire thrust. Winning isn't secondary, it's basically not existent.
On a side note how many seasons did Lute play Hassan at the 4? I remember his frosh year for sure, where Lute even used him as the jump ball guy which is crazy. During the latter end of Lute's tenure at Arizona he had as many issues recruiting quality 4 men as Miller does with point guards.
I fail to see how being the 3rd offensive option at Arizona wouldn't be good for him. I mean it's better than being the 13th option for the Fargo Who Gives a Fucks. His offensive usage would still be plenty high.Spaceman Spiff wrote:If I'm talking in Rawle's case, I'd be more worried that I lose touches to Trier and Ayton and am at best a third option.ChooChooCat wrote:I agree with a lot in this post, but I don't think it applies to Rawle Alkins whatsoever next season. The guy is playing the position he would play in the pros at Arizona as he did last year, has for sure starter minutes guaranteed, and will get plenty development priority in the areas he needs it in i.e. ballhandling and shooting. Yes Miller's priority is and should be winning, but Rawle's continual development plays into Miller's priority for next season.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I think the D League is better for players, although it depends highly on the player.CalStateTempe wrote:The thing is spiff, I do get that, but as in most things in life, I prefer to put myself in a position To "win" and capitalize on dreams. I love the U, but I'm not blind to fandom to think that college ball is what a lot of Arizona players aspire to.
Is rawle's odds of achieving his dream better at this point in his college career or after second year of seasoning at Arizona? I'd say the former only if he fears he's gonna get exposed, which then it really doesn't matter since he'll be exposed in the D league anyway.
In college, coaches care about developing players, but are paid to win. Think about Hassan Adams. Lute played him at the 4 for long stretches, which stunted his wing development. Lute was playing to win.
In the D League, coaches are there to develop. No D League coach is getting fired if they develop players and lose every single game. That is the entire thrust. Winning isn't secondary, it's basically not existent.
On a side note how many seasons did Lute play Hassan at the 4? I remember his frosh year for sure, where Lute even used him as the jump ball guy which is crazy. During the latter end of Lute's tenure at Arizona he had as many issues recruiting quality 4 men as Miller does with point guards.
I don't agree, bc I think Rawle would get similar touches at Arizona and the D League does not increase, but it's a viable argument.
Yet is a very generous word.YoDeFoe wrote:Rawle isn't gone yet, so hold back on "F you guys."
Also Jeter isn't eligible this year, so we need Lee or Pinder to take 20m/g in the post.
You're tearing up my heart, Choo.ChooChooCat wrote: Yet is a very generous word.
How about both of them to take up 20m/g?
Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
It probably doesn't, but ripping people who leave is always something I think is not particularly classy.ChooChooCat wrote:Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
He's getting predominantly killed by national reporters at this point from what I've seen.Spaceman Spiff wrote:It probably doesn't, but ripping people who leave is always something I think is not particularly classy.ChooChooCat wrote:Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
Agreed. No one has any idea what one incident or example or posting will cause an 18 year old kid in a tight race for a commit to go "fuck those guys."Spaceman Spiff wrote:It probably doesn't, but ripping people who leave is always something I think is not particularly classy.ChooChooCat wrote:Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
That's fair and beyond control. I just hope the number of Arizona fans is minimal/nonexistent.ChooChooCat wrote:He's getting predominantly killed by national reporters at this point from what I've seen.Spaceman Spiff wrote:It probably doesn't, but ripping people who leave is always something I think is not particularly classy.ChooChooCat wrote:Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
I legit searched twitter just for his name and all I've seen are Arizona fans laughing. The predominant tweets have been national and even some local media trashing him for this decision.Spaceman Spiff wrote:
That's fair and beyond control. I just hope the number of Arizona fans is minimal/nonexistent.
I mean unless you're Roy Williams of course and you cry and cry and cry until your players give in and return.JMarkJohns wrote:Chance is why I believe Miller will only recruit impact freshman and look to add Transfer bigs and wings going forward.
You simply can't recruit even barely skilled, mostly raw, top-50-100 types as multi-year players anymore.
If you recruit traditional transfers, you get a redshirt and a more mature/skilled player for a junior/senior year that you'd get from a 50-100 range freshman and sophomore.
It's not ideal. But when you see Kentucky grasping for transfers and quirky prep recruits, you know the system is fucked.
Those players don't have to go to class to pass.ChooChooCat wrote:I mean unless you're Roy Williams of course and you cry and cry and cry until your players give in and return.JMarkJohns wrote:Chance is why I believe Miller will only recruit impact freshman and look to add Transfer bigs and wings going forward.
You simply can't recruit even barely skilled, mostly raw, top-50-100 types as multi-year players anymore.
If you recruit traditional transfers, you get a redshirt and a more mature/skilled player for a junior/senior year that you'd get from a 50-100 range freshman and sophomore.
It's not ideal. But when you see Kentucky grasping for transfers and quirky prep recruits, you know the system is fucked.
Agreed. He is making a bad choice, and I have absolutely no problem with people criticizing him over it.ChooChooCat wrote:Doesn't hurt the program any.Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yeah, I'm not really hyped about that as a look for the program.84Cat wrote:Wow, Chance is getting absolutely killed on Twitter.
Touche.JMarkJohns wrote:Those players don't have to go to class to pass.ChooChooCat wrote:I mean unless you're Roy Williams of course and you cry and cry and cry until your players give in and return.JMarkJohns wrote:Chance is why I believe Miller will only recruit impact freshman and look to add Transfer bigs and wings going forward.
You simply can't recruit even barely skilled, mostly raw, top-50-100 types as multi-year players anymore.
If you recruit traditional transfers, you get a redshirt and a more mature/skilled player for a junior/senior year that you'd get from a 50-100 range freshman and sophomore.
It's not ideal. But when you see Kentucky grasping for transfers and quirky prep recruits, you know the system is fucked.
I was taught to reduce fractions....Beachcat97 wrote:What a crazy off-season, even by crazy off-season standards.
We're going to get 2 of these 4: Johnson, Jeter, Bowen, Duval.
EVCat wrote:I was taught to reduce fractions....Beachcat97 wrote:What a crazy off-season, even by crazy off-season standards.
We're going to get 2 of these 4: Johnson, Jeter, Bowen, Duval.
We're going to get 2 of these 3: Johnson, Jeter, Bowen