Re: 2017-2018 Arizona Basketball
Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:03 am
He was gasping and grasping at straws in Colorado.
A co-op community for Arizona Fans
http://beardownwildcats.com/
Good company.
We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.qwertyus wrote:We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
I'm not seeing many losses on the schedule. I guess we'll see.dmjcat wrote:Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.qwertyus wrote:We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html" target="_blank
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi" target="_blank
Potential road losses: OSU, UO, asu, UW, and I would not be surpised to lose one at home to somebody we shouldn't......like UWqwertyus wrote:I'm not seeing many losses on the schedule. I guess we'll see.dmjcat wrote:Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.qwertyus wrote:We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html" target="_blank
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi" target="_blank
4 road losses? OK bud. Like I said, we'll see.dmjcat wrote:Potential road losses: OSU, UO, asu, UW, and I would not be surpised to lose one at home to somebody we shouldn't......like UWqwertyus wrote:I'm not seeing many losses on the schedule. I guess we'll see.dmjcat wrote:Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.qwertyus wrote:We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html" target="_blank
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi" target="_blank
If we drop 3 road losses (say UO, UW, asu) and 1 home game that would give us 8 losses. Even staying perfect at home would give us 7 losses resulting in a likely 5/6 seed.
dmjcat wrote:Potential road losses: OSU, UO, asu, UW, and I would not be surpised to lose one at home to somebody we shouldn't......like UWqwertyus wrote:I'm not seeing many losses on the schedule. I guess we'll see.dmjcat wrote:Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.qwertyus wrote:We're at #17 now. By March, we'll be, what, #10-#12? How's that a 6 seed?dmjcat wrote:RealTime RPI has us at #23..................a 6 seed likely bounced in the round of 32.
Miller has his work cut out for him if he is to right the ship and make a deep tourney run.
Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html" target="_blank
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi" target="_blank
If we drop 3 road losses (say UO, UW, asu) and 1 home game that would give us 8 losses. Even staying perfect at home would give us 7 losses resulting in a likely 5/6 seed.
Our RPI is 23: Which is usually a good indicator of where we will be seeded.dmjcat wrote:Ranked, I mean. Not RPI.
Oh boy, RiseandShart is back!RiseAndFire wrote:Per the usual with Millerball, we barely outscored some scrub team in the paint 26-24, cant shoot them out of a zone, but are saved with an above average 12 fast break points (the only signs of offensive life in the game outside of Ayton's usual stuff)
Good thing you're able to out-talent the #184 ranked beavs with 9-deep worth of 4 and 5 star recruits. that's not going to work in the tournament against an 11 seed though
Does this mean you'll shut the fuck up until March Madness? Or will you continue to belittle Miller and Arizona as they roll to another Pac 12 title and then pull the, "See, I told you so" when Arizona bows out somewhere in March.RiseAndFire wrote:Per the usual with Millerball, we barely outscored some scrub team in the paint 26-24, cant shoot them out of a zone, but are saved with an above average 12 fast break points (the only signs of offensive life in the game outside of Ayton's usual stuff)
Good thing you're able to out-talent the #184 ranked beavs with 9-deep worth of 4 and 5 star recruits. that's not going to work in the tournament against an 11 seed though
I'd say that you are full of shit.Olsondogg wrote:What if I told you that Arizona had the best defense in the PAC 12?
The operative word is “had.”dmjcat wrote:I'd say that you are full of shit.Olsondogg wrote:What if I told you that Arizona had the best defense in the PAC 12?
AZ is currently ranked #5 in scoring defense and #7 in FG% defense in the PAC12
http://pac-12.com/content/mens-basketball-statistics" target="_blank
We're actually much better adjusted on KenPom. Not #1, Colorado nips us, but better.dmjcat wrote:I'd say that you are full of shit.Olsondogg wrote:What if I told you that Arizona had the best defense in the PAC 12?
AZ is currently ranked #5 in scoring defense and #7 in FG% defense in the PAC12
http://pac-12.com/content/mens-basketball-statistics" target="_blank
Our Adj was top in the PAC when I posted. It’s now 66, one behind Rado at 65.dmjcat wrote:I'd say that you are full of shit.Olsondogg wrote:What if I told you that Arizona had the best defense in the PAC 12?
AZ is currently ranked #5 in scoring defense and #7 in FG% defense in the PAC12
http://pac-12.com/content/mens-basketball-statistics" target="_blank
Longhorned wrote:*whistle*
Quoting violation!
It was poor shot selection. They took too many shots. They were contested and too early in the shot clock. OSU's zone was able to adjust to wherever the ball moved on the perimeter, and without making the attempt to penetrate into the zone defense, nobody was open for a three-pointer. But they kept shooting them anyway.Beachcat97 wrote:Think we're gonna have a hard time advancing in March shooting the 3-ball like we did yesterday. AT, RA, BR, DS...they gotta hit better than 40% of their 3-point tries.
Excellent break-down, LH.Longhorned wrote:With a team like OSU where their weakness is in the backcourt, Arizona needs to counter the zone by extending their own defense and pressuring the opposing guards. It forces turnovers, opens the court, and wears down the opponent. After Arizona made that adjustment and finally took that 29-26 lead after Rawle's show stopping reverse slam on the fast break, Arizona had success getting the ball to Ayton, which in turn got PJC, Trier, and Alkins open looks from 3. Those are the shots Arizona should be taken. And it starts with how they defend.
To me, it's about varying up the defense, which is something Miller supposedly doesn't do, but actually has done the past two games. Unfortunately, Arizona was too deep in the hole against Colorado when they switched it up.Beachcat97 wrote:Excellent break-down, LH.Longhorned wrote:With a team like OSU where their weakness is in the backcourt, Arizona needs to counter the zone by extending their own defense and pressuring the opposing guards. It forces turnovers, opens the court, and wears down the opponent. After Arizona made that adjustment and finally took that 29-26 lead after Rawle's show stopping reverse slam on the fast break, Arizona had success getting the ball to Ayton, which in turn got PJC, Trier, and Alkins open looks from 3. Those are the shots Arizona should be taken. And it starts with how they defend.
I'm a big believer in "defense heals all," so I hope that this team is starting to buy in. Miller's best teams have excelled on defense, and we haven't seen that consistently from this team yet.
One thing this team does too much of is taking early shot clock shots that you can get at any point. You can shoot a semi-contested three at any point in the shot clock. There's no reason to fire it up with 25 seconds left on the shot clock.Longhorned wrote:It was poor shot selection. They took too many shots. They were contested and too early in the shot clock. OSU's zone was able to adjust to wherever the ball moved on the perimeter, and without making the attempt to penetrate into the zone defense, nobody was open for a three-pointer. But they kept shooting them anyway.Beachcat97 wrote:Think we're gonna have a hard time advancing in March shooting the 3-ball like we did yesterday. AT, RA, BR, DS...they gotta hit better than 40% of their 3-point tries.
With a team like OSU where their weakness is in the backcourt, Arizona needs to counter the zone by extending their own defense and pressuring the opposing guards. It forces turnovers, opens the court, and wears down the opponent. After Arizona made that adjustment and finally took that 29-26 lead after Rawle's show stopping reverse slam on the fast break, Arizona had success getting the ball to Ayton, which in turn got PJC, Trier, and Alkins open looks from 3. Those are the shots Arizona should be taken. And it starts with how they defend.
I haven't watched UW yet, but they're the first zone team that comes to mind. The Huskies are quietly having a solid season. 13-4, 3-1 in Pac. They won at KU. They're arguably right behind UCLA for the fourth tourney bid for the Pac. And if ASU continues to sputter, UW could sneak in to the top three in the league. Anyway, they play 40 minutes of zone, and they do have good guards (Nowell, Crisp). I expect that game will challenge us.Longhorned wrote:But Arizona is unlikely to face a combination of strong guard play and zone defense. That's because teams with strong guards tend toward man-to-man, and for good reason. Against zone-dominant opponents, or opponents who become zone-dominant only against Arizona (like Colorado, for example), Arizona is starting to press and force turnovers instead of hunkering down into its pack-line and then having to face a set zone on the make or miss.
It's basically Syracuse, and therefore the great exception to everything, which is why Syracuse sometimes kills it in the tourney. But Washington plays a bunch of guards and they don't have size outside Timmins, who isn't an impact player for them. So Arizona will have a size advantage that they don't really have so much of against Oregon State.Beachcat97 wrote:I haven't watched UW yet, but they're the first zone team that comes to mind. The Huskies are quietly having a solid season. 13-4, 3-1 in Pac. They won at KU. They're arguably right behind UCLA for the fourth tourney bid for the Pac. And if ASU continues to sputter, UW could sneak in to the top three in the league. Anyway, they play 40 minutes of zone, and they do have good guards (Nowell, Crisp). I expect that game will challenge us.Longhorned wrote:But Arizona is unlikely to face a combination of strong guard play and zone defense. That's because teams with strong guards tend toward man-to-man, and for good reason. Against zone-dominant opponents, or opponents who become zone-dominant only against Arizona (like Colorado, for example), Arizona is starting to press and force turnovers instead of hunkering down into its pack-line and then having to face a set zone on the make or miss.
It's always better as a guideline instead of a rule, IMO. If Salim Stoudamire had it rolling, dribbled downcourt and was left wide open from 3, he needs to shoot it regardless of how many passes are made.84Cat wrote:I agree Spiff, maybe we need Lute's 3 pass rule.
Too often we are either violating that rule, or going through the motions for 25 seconds and having to scramble to get a halfway decent look as the shot clock is expiring. The off ball movement last night was some of the worst we have seen this year, if not the worst.Spaceman Spiff wrote:One thing this team does too much of is taking early shot clock shots that you can get at any point. You can shoot a semi-contested three at any point in the shot clock. There's no reason to fire it up with 25 seconds left on the shot clock.Longhorned wrote:It was poor shot selection. They took too many shots. They were contested and too early in the shot clock. OSU's zone was able to adjust to wherever the ball moved on the perimeter, and without making the attempt to penetrate into the zone defense, nobody was open for a three-pointer. But they kept shooting them anyway.Beachcat97 wrote:Think we're gonna have a hard time advancing in March shooting the 3-ball like we did yesterday. AT, RA, BR, DS...they gotta hit better than 40% of their 3-point tries.
With a team like OSU where their weakness is in the backcourt, Arizona needs to counter the zone by extending their own defense and pressuring the opposing guards. It forces turnovers, opens the court, and wears down the opponent. After Arizona made that adjustment and finally took that 29-26 lead after Rawle's show stopping reverse slam on the fast break, Arizona had success getting the ball to Ayton, which in turn got PJC, Trier, and Alkins open looks from 3. Those are the shots Arizona should be taken. And it starts with how they defend.
I remember coaches screaming that at me. You can get that shot any time. Why now? See if you can get something better first, because YOU CAN GET THAT ****ING SHOT ANY TIME.
Yeah, our secondary break action has been spotty. The secondary break is how you generate good shots midclock and we seem to have a bad balance of either quick ones or trying to create with a dwindling clock.rgdeuce wrote:Too often we are either violating that rule, or going through the motions for 25 seconds and having to scramble to get a halfway decent look as the shot clock is expiring. The off ball movement last night was some of the worst we have seen this year, if not the worst.Spaceman Spiff wrote:One thing this team does too much of is taking early shot clock shots that you can get at any point. You can shoot a semi-contested three at any point in the shot clock. There's no reason to fire it up with 25 seconds left on the shot clock.Longhorned wrote:It was poor shot selection. They took too many shots. They were contested and too early in the shot clock. OSU's zone was able to adjust to wherever the ball moved on the perimeter, and without making the attempt to penetrate into the zone defense, nobody was open for a three-pointer. But they kept shooting them anyway.Beachcat97 wrote:Think we're gonna have a hard time advancing in March shooting the 3-ball like we did yesterday. AT, RA, BR, DS...they gotta hit better than 40% of their 3-point tries.
With a team like OSU where their weakness is in the backcourt, Arizona needs to counter the zone by extending their own defense and pressuring the opposing guards. It forces turnovers, opens the court, and wears down the opponent. After Arizona made that adjustment and finally took that 29-26 lead after Rawle's show stopping reverse slam on the fast break, Arizona had success getting the ball to Ayton, which in turn got PJC, Trier, and Alkins open looks from 3. Those are the shots Arizona should be taken. And it starts with how they defend.
I remember coaches screaming that at me. You can get that shot any time. Why now? See if you can get something better first, because YOU CAN GET THAT ****ING SHOT ANY TIME.
Our zone offense seems to be more stationary by utilizing Ayton's length in the high post. In past years, we created a lot of high post action with wings and kept posts either flatter or for ball screens on our pg.CatHoops wrote:The guards have nowhere to go vs the zone when two bigs are in the paint. Our defense needs to keep improving cause that will be our best offense vs the Zone defense.
I think we need to reexamine the conference a little bit. A terrible OOC performance has perhaps overshadowed what are mostly solid teams.Beachcat97 wrote:Feel like it's hard to say who the best team in the Pac is. UCLA is sitting at 4-1 and seem to have figured some things out, but I'm not sure I trust them to go into Oregon or AZ or even though the Mountain zone and get road wins. ASU now appears vulnerable, but everyone underestimates those guards at their peril. AZ has the best roster in the league, clearly, but the chemistry has been a challenge, and Sean has made no secret of this frustrations. Stanford is starting to click. I could see the top 5 ending up a few different ways. Strange season.
It doesn't necessarily make sense, but Ayton is better than Lauri vs zone. We've been fine vs zone until last night, and even then, the second half, we got cooking.CatHoops wrote:Last year lauri was more perimeter though and we had only ristic in the middle. This year ayton and ristic are both inside. I just think it's going to take time before we get any rhythm and figure out spacing vs the zone
I'm not on the ledge yet. We've played one decent/good half and one bad half in each of our last three games. It's obviously less than ideal, but it's not emergency time either.CatHoops wrote:Ya I don't see us losing 7 or 8 like some in here.
Couple of things.Catintheheat wrote:I am beginning to believe the ceiling for the team is the sweet 16. I just don't see good flow on a consistent basis. A lot of it has to do with PG play. It just seems like the players don't understand the subtleties of the game, and a lack of skills they should have already learned. Trying to analyze this maybe there is just too many alpha players and a lack of role players to create balance. Maybe too many young players. Cohesiveness is really a problem. Hopefully this will change but right now my expectations are reduced.