Bear Down Wildcats

Beachcat97 wrote:

azcat49 wrote:We need to beat Gonzaga and St Johns I think to have a hope of staying out west. I think the committee sticks us in Louisville’s bracket otherwise. They just look to be the best team in college basketball right now and if the NCAA can’t stick it to us the committee will

Agree completely. Actually, I think it's really just Gonzaga at this point. We could conceivably win that one, lose to St. John's, finish first or second in the Pac, and end up with a 3 seed, imo. And this assumes we get some wins over ranked Pac teams.

The Gonzaga game is our one remaining chance for a "signature win." A win would pay huge dividends on Selection Sunday; a loss would make it easier for the committee to downgrade our seed, almost regardless of our Pac finish.

Big agree.

Hopefully the return home after four tough games away provides us with some McKale Magic. FWIW KenPom has it as a toss up heading in. Tune-up on Wednesday and then the big show (on ESPN2, at 10pm Eastern) on Saturday.

This sucks, we're now likely shoehorned into a #4 seed if we finish the season well (4 or less loses) as our ceiling because our OOC schedule strength is abysmal. 4-6 seed is where we are likely to land.

Gonzaga is getting their #1 seed in the West and Arizona will likely be shipped out to the Midwest, South or East. Oregon looks better and has a much better resume, they could get #2 seed if they win the conference (likely happening with Dante getting waivers). They might stay out West but the committee usually doesn't put teams that have played in the regular season in the same bracket.

Say Gonzaga gets #1 in the West, Oregon gets a 2 or 3 seed in the South (closer to home for them), Arizona would likely go Midwest and possibly face Ohio St as #1. East could be Louisville, Duke etc

I don't see a win or two over Oregon being enough to get a #3 seed, resume is too weak and the conference isn't strong enough. Now this could be a 1997 scenario where Arizona beats 3 #1 seeds but there's a reason it's only happened once.

I still think this team is a S16 team with the caveat that Mannion could carry this team far, but he's been struggling. Frankly I would stop following because I don't see how Arizona could get through a second round 4 vs 5 matchup or a 1 vs 4 in the sweet 16. The only thing that gives me any hope is that there's no dominant team and this could be a wild 2011 or 2014 year where a flawed team and flawed coach like this could go far.

5 seed in the South now with Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan

https://www.bracketologists.com/team/arizona-wildcats" target="_blank

Hard to imagine Gonzaga not being the #1 seed in the West. Might as well give it to em now.

AZ's highest possible seed is probably the 3/4 line. Only a monster Pac record and reg season title would get them in contention for a 2 seed, which I don't see happening. If we can go like 13-5 or better and finish 3rd or higher, we should be on track for a 3/4-range seed, tipping higher or lower depending on how we did vs. the best in our league.

So this is maybe the year that seeding doesn't matter quite as much, everyone is very beatable. Including us, but there isn't a team that is crazy good. The blueprints are out there, my biggest fear is playing Mack.

lots of basketball left

97cats wrote:lots of basketball left

So much parity this year. There's no team we cant beat on a given night with the talent on this roster. No matter what happens during the regular season. I'm gonna believe that this team could go all the way in March until its all over.

Also, very strange to see a home game vs UCLA is our only Q4 matchup in the whole PAC. Wazzu isnt even a Q4.

It's a really down year overall. Have to take advantage of it.

97cats wrote:lots of basketball left

Amen.

97cats wrote:lots of basketball left

And numbers-wise, the Pac is stronger this year. We can play our way into a decent seed. Huge game @Oregon fast approaching!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

Irish27 wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

I would take that draw as a 9 seed in a second.

i never like being in that 8/9 game

97cats wrote:i never like being in that 8/9 game

Are you referring to All 8/9 games in general or an 8/9 game vs IU?

An 8 seed...man. It's crazy just how much changed with those losses to Baylor and Gonzaga. We really, really needed one of those to make a case for a higher seed. Now, our only hope is to finish top three in the Pac with at least one win over Oregon. Going 0-2 (possibly 0-3 if we see them in the Pac tourney) vs. Oregon on the year with, say, wins over Colorado and Washington as our only "quality wins" for the entire season, that would probably get us up to a 5 seed. Any wins over Oregon open the door for something better than a 5 seed.

Frybry02 wrote:

Irish27 wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

I would take that draw as a 9 seed in a second.

Are they being serious with that South division? If I saw anything like that in March I'd be laughing maniacally.

Fespn has us #5 in the West. 5 P12s with UW in a play in game

We aren’t going to be an 8 seed. We are something like 13th in the NCAA’s Net rankings.

ByJoveByJingle wrote:We aren’t going to be an 8 seed. We are something like 13th in the NCAA’s Net rankings.

There's a serious disconnect between our computer numbers and the media. Kenpom has us much higher too.

It's possible that projected 8 seed is based more on expected upcoming outcomes than on current metrics.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

I'd take this draw in a second.

Beachcat97 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

I'd take this draw in a second.

We might be favored to get to the final four if that's the bracket.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

If this most recent projection is even remotely accurate, it’s hard to see how tomorrow’s outcome isn’t critical. We’re in mid-January with zero quality wins.

Beachcat97 wrote:If this most recent projection is even remotely accurate, it’s hard to see how tomorrow’s outcome isn’t critical. We’re in mid-January with zero quality wins.

Completely agree. Lose a home game and we have to make it up on the road (sweep UW & WSU for example) which will be quite difficult. We need desperately to get our first Quad 1 win tomorrow. I'll be there cheering the Cats on. We somehow need to find a way to stop Mckinley Wright from eating us up with penetration.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/" target="_blank

Irish27 wrote:https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

That's a brutal region. But in all honesty this season is much more wide open than usual. Even the seemingly impossible could happen; like us getting to the Final Four One game at a time.

i believe Arizona’s schedule sets up for them if they can get this road trip off to a hot start - they need the first two.

if they do and string together some wins they will rise in the rankings/seedlings very fast.

It's looking more and more like it's less a question of whether we'll get in than what our seed may be. Still think we need to beat Oregon to rise higher than a 5 seed, but stranger things have happened.

Beachcat97 wrote:It's looking more and more like it's less a question of whether we'll get in than what our seed may be. Still think we need to beat Oregon to rise higher than a 5 seed, but stranger things have happened.

This hasn't changed from day 1

I'm rooting for a 4,5, 6 or 7 seed in the west. But honestly, I don't care. I'm having fun watching this team for the first time in a couple years, warts & all. Keep improving & then take our shot. LFG & Bear Down Arizona.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Looks like the PAC is getting some respect in that bracketology

azcat49 wrote:Looks like the PAC is getting some respect in that bracketology

Yes. Stanford and USC are quietly having very good seasons and putting themselves in position for a bid.

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I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

Beachcat97 wrote:I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

Make. Up. Your. Mind.

Beachcat97 wrote:I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

The more you post the less you say.

PHXCATS wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

The more you post the less you say.

I've got something to say.

Beachcat97 wrote:

PHXCATS wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

The more you post the less you say.

I've got something to say.

Lets read it then.

You can only go off current results. And as of today the Cats are no where near the bubble

Beachcat97 wrote:I mean, metrics are metrics. Even with all the bad losses, if these numbers hold up, we’re not only dancing but pretty safely away from the bubble.

#5 Florida just lost to unranked Virginia...#17 is currently down 12 points to the unranked and almost bottom of the conference (1-5 in conference) Ole Miss...

This is the year pretty much every team NOT in a cupcake conference will have multiple road losses...every team.

The road is brutal this year and at the end of the season the committee will have to consider that or just hand the trophy to SDSU...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... itle-game/" target="_blank

Read down to the bottom

SCCats wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... itle-game/

Read down to the bottom

You shouldn't post stuff like this SCCats..PhxCats may blow a gasket

A look at three teams whose NCAA Tournament resume may not be as good as you think

Arizona: No. 8 seed
The Wildcats are No. 22 in the current AP Top 25, although that is likely to change following Arizona State's come-from-behind victory vs. Arizona on Saturday. However, they are doing very well in the NET (10th) and other margin-of-victory-based metrics. That is partly because their few good wins, which have all come at home, have been by big margins. The Wildcats beat Colorado by 24 for their only Q1 victory. They also crushed Illinois by 21, Arizona State by 28 and Utah by 16. Those are Arizona's four Q1 and 2 wins.

The Wildcats have yet to beat anyone of substance away from home and are now 0-4 on the road. If you want a good seed in this tournament, you have to find ways to beat good teams away from home. A gaudy ranking won't do that for you. It's not decisive. Ask Wichita State, which was No. 8 in KenPom in 2017 and a No. 10 seed in the bracket. If all you have is a good ranking, you have nothing. Rankings can be fooled. The selection committee rarely is.

If we finish 5th in the Pac and go one and done in the tourney, PHX will still be extolling our respectable NET ranking and excellent recruiting class for '20.

Beachcat97 wrote:If we finish 5th in the Pac and go one and done in the tourney, PHX will still be extolling our respectable NET ranking and excellent recruiting class for '20.

You have no fucking clue how to comprehend what you read

dmjcat wrote:

SCCats wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... itle-game/

Read down to the bottom

You shouldn't post stuff like this SCCats..PhxCats may blow a gasket

A look at three teams whose NCAA Tournament resume may not be as good as you think

Arizona: No. 8 seed
The Wildcats are No. 22 in the current AP Top 25, although that is likely to change following Arizona State's come-from-behind victory vs. Arizona on Saturday. However, they are doing very well in the NET (10th) and other margin-of-victory-based metrics. That is partly because their few good wins, which have all come at home, have been by big margins. The Wildcats beat Colorado by 24 for their only Q1 victory. They also crushed Illinois by 21, Arizona State by 28 and Utah by 16. Those are Arizona's four Q1 and 2 wins.

The Wildcats have yet to beat anyone of substance away from home and are now 0-4 on the road. If you want a good seed in this tournament, you have to find ways to beat good teams away from home. A gaudy ranking won't do that for you. It's not decisive. Ask Wichita State, which was No. 8 in KenPom in 2017 and a No. 10 seed in the bracket. If all you have is a good ranking, you have nothing. Rankings can be fooled. The selection committee rarely is.

What’s interesting is that the last projected bracket Palm put out before this one he had Arizona as a 10 seed

Tonight's win counts as a Q1 win (for now). With Illinois winning again they are officially in the top 30 net. Cats are now 3-4 against Q1 opponents.