2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

[Spaceman Spiff]

Thank you, thank you, thank you, Clip, even if I did have to read almost everything 2 or 3 times to truly grasp it. That is exactly what I asked (begged ?) you to do.
I agree with you NYCat. We need a special thread for these reviews. They are not average posts and should not get buried.
I tried to do that with my thread titled Tucson Clip instead of Game Breakdown as you suggested., but ALieberman said "No".

You realize I was kidding right?!!

No mods are going to stop anyone from starting any thread unless they are inappropriate. I love the idea of a Tucson Clip review thread

So that's why my daily thread featuring hardcore pornography with a celebrating Josh Pastner photoshopped in the background isn't getting more traction?

[NYCat]

Pac 12 champions shoo in? Boatwright out for the season.

[YoDeFoe]

Pac 12 champions shoo in? Boatwright out for the season.

I'd rather USC stay strong and take down UCLA, who has the 1 seed tie breaker on us.

Doesn't really matter though. Split the Oregons on the road, beat Cal and Stanford at home - title is ours outright.

UCLA has the much tougher remaining four with the Oregon coming in and then three road games including the mountain trip and across town to USC. They need to win all four of those to have a shot at the title.

[zonagrad]

Rawle looked very lively and bouncy vs. USC, and tonight that wasn't there for whatever reason. I really don't think he's damaged goods after seeing him the other night look just fine, so don't think he's lost it, just tonight it didn't come out. And it wasn't a good game for him. We need big games from Rawle in the tournament. If he plays average/well tonight, we win by 15.

Totally. We also had 20 freaking turnovers. Cut that in half and we win by even more. Our guards have to take better care of the ball. Lots of careless mistakes tonight. Thankfully Ristic and Ayton were huge. Otherwise, might've been a different outcome.

Ristic had 5 TOs. Dayton had 4. Alkins 5. They make some bad decisions. Our primary ball handlers are PJC and Trier. They had 2 turnovers each, which is acceptable.

[Beachcat97]

Rawle looked very lively and bouncy vs. USC, and tonight that wasn't there for whatever reason. I really don't think he's damaged goods after seeing him the other night look just fine, so don't think he's lost it, just tonight it didn't come out. And it wasn't a good game for him. We need big games from Rawle in the tournament. If he plays average/well tonight, we win by 15.

Totally. We also had 20 freaking turnovers. Cut that in half and we win by even more. Our guards have to take better care of the ball. Lots of careless mistakes tonight. Thankfully Ristic and Ayton were huge. Otherwise, might've been a different outcome.

Ristic had 5 TOs. Dayton had 4. Alkins 5. They make some bad decisions. Our primary ball handlers are PJC and Trier. They had 2 turnovers each, which is acceptable.

Fair enough, zg. You're right. The turnover problem was more with our bigs last night. Ayton's had this problem all year. He can be a little sloppy with short passes near the top of the key. Ristic is usually better.

Still, though, whoever's turning it over, there's no way this team is getting deep in the tourney with 20 turnovers. Gotta keep that number closer to 10.

[Merkin]

Offensively, ASU’s game plan was similar to the last time we met. They ran a TON of horns, lifted sets, high ball screen action. Anything they could do to lift our bigs, and clear the lane for them to attack the basket.

I have been watching college basketball for over 50 years and ...




But great stuff, have to do some research and see what you are saying.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Offensively, ASU’s game plan was similar to the last time we met. They ran a TON of horns, lifted sets, high ball screen action. Anything they could do to lift our bigs, and clear the lane for them to attack the basket.

I have been watching college basketball for over 50 years and ...



But great stuff, have to do some research and see what you are saying.

It's basically a fancy way of saying you pull both bigs to high post/3 point area in the initiation of offense. It essentially vacates the post to allow the set to start with an emphasis on utilizing both bigs as pass/screen options with the lane free for cutters.

[Longhorned]

So then what's a segmentally curved, reversed convex horns, or whatever it was you said Krystowiak has his team run?

[TucsonClip]

Feel free to move them to a specific thread. I would be more than happy to keep posting them in there.

[PennZona20]

Feel free to move them to a specific thread. I would be more than happy to keep posting them in there.

Just let me co-sign on your posts too Clip as I’m more a lurker and less a poster. As a former player at the high school / small CC level, these posts are awesome as i don’t catch nearly what u do on the sets , etc. something tells me you have coached at some type of collegiate level to be this perceptive. Either that or you go back and breakdown the game film on your DVR extensively, because only someone w a coaching acumen is going to see the game this way upon first glance live.

[Longhorned]

Clip’s posts have always been one of the best things on the internet, let alone our sites. But these detailed play breakdowns are an amazing new addition.

[EastCoastCat]

I also agree - Clip has some real spot on analysis and for those who appreciate the "game within the game" like I do it shows how much a coach and his staff can have a real impact on the outcome of games.

Of course, you need the players to buy in and execute as well.

[EastCoastCat]

• Record: 21-6 (11-3)
• RPI: #16

• • Strength of Schedule (SOS): #42
  • Q1: 4-3 (vs 1-25: 1-1)
  • Q2: 6-3 (vs 26-50: 4-1)
  • Q3: 7-0 (vs 51-100: 5-4)

• Kenpom: #21 (+18.76)

• • Adjusted Offense: #10 (120.1)
  • Adjusted Defense: #96 (101.3)
  • Adjusted Tempo: #186 (68.3

• BPI: #20

• • Strength of Record (SOR): #22

• Sargarin: #14
• KPI: #13
• TeamRankings Predictive: #15

Massey composite unfortunately hasn't been updated since Sunday. Also the RPI rankings, RPI SOS and Quadrant wins are the most important things for the selection committee.

The committee also says how important away victories are including neutral site games. I'm assuming with the Bahamas disaster and our best away wins being UNLV, NM , Utah and ASU that we don't rank very high.

[jsbowl16]

For the game on Thursday, we were even with Arizona State when Ristic and Ayton were in the game together and plus seven when they were not. This number was even more skewed against USC. The problem that we still have that will not get solved is that our best offensive team is with Ristic and Ayton on the floor together but the defense is horrible. When we sub for one of them, the defense improves but we lose out on offense. This isnt getting fixed by the end of the year. Miller is walking a fine line of trying to balance these lineups.

The problem with Ayton and Ristics defense isnt that they cant defend on the perimeter because for guys their size they are satisfactory. The issue is that with two seven footers in the game, our help defense is way too slow so when our guards get beat on the perimeter, it is a free lane to the basket. Duke has the same problem this year.

Some will say our bench only scored six points against Arizona State but that stat does not mean that our bench sucks. It means that you are looking at the game from an NBA standpoint of how many points did everyone have last night. I am much more concerned with the plus/minus. What our bench lacks in scoring they more than make up for in their defense, hustle plays and making good decisions to make sure our scorers keep scoring. That is how you have a plus score when they are in versus when they are not.

[CatHoops]

Our help defense has improved alot the last two games especially Dusans. If that keeps trending up we will be a scary team in March

[FreeSpiritCat]

Our help defense has improved alot the last two games especially Dusans. If that keeps trending up we will be a scary team in March

I think Dusan has improved more all-around in the last couple of months than he has in the last 3 1/2 years. He still isn't athletically gifted, but his aggressiveness has made up for a lot of his shortcomings. He is turning into an all Pac-12 player, and I would feel more comfortable having him shoot the ball late in games.

[Merkin]

Ristic has a double double in 3 out his last 4 games. That's pretty impressive, especially when you out there with Ayton, who gets a double double pretty much every game.

[NYCat]

• Record: 21-6 (11-3)
• RPI: #16

• • Strength of Schedule (SOS): #42
  • Q1: 4-3 (vs 1-25: 1-1)
  • Q2: 6-3 (vs 26-50: 4-1)
  • Q3: 7-0 (vs 51-100: 5-4)

• Kenpom: #21 (+18.76)

• • Adjusted Offense: #10 (120.1)
  • Adjusted Defense: #96 (101.3)
  • Adjusted Tempo: #186 (68.3

• BPI: #20

• • Strength of Record (SOR): #22

• Sargarin: #14
• KPI: #13
• TeamRankings Predictive: #15

Massey composite unfortunately hasn't been updated since Sunday. Also the RPI rankings, RPI SOS and Quadrant wins are the most important things for the selection committee.

The committee also says how important away victories are including neutral site games. I'm assuming with the Bahamas disaster and our best away wins being UNLV, NM , Utah and ASU that we don't rank very high.

Yeah those are factored in the Q1, Q2, Q3 wins or quadrant wins. For those that don't know. (It uses RPI still unfortunately)

Quadrant 1 Wins:

• • Home wins vs RPI 1-30
  • Neutral wins vs RPI 1-50
  • Road wins vs RPI 1-75

Quadrant 2 Wins;

• • Home win vs RPI 31-75
  • Neutral win vs RPI 51-100
  • Road win vs RPI 76-135

Quadrant 3 Wins:

• • Home wins vs RPI 76-160
  • Neutral wins vs RPI 101-200
  • Road wins vs RPI 136-240

Quadrant 4 Wins:

• • Home wins vs RPI 161+
  • Neutral wins vs RPI 201+
  • Road wins vs RPI 241+

Also bit important note: wins can change quadrants throughout the season. A team's RPI is not locked for that particular game, they can change throughout the season.

For example if Arizona beating Texas A&M earlier in the season meant a easy Q1 win, then Texas A&M fell apart and changed Arizona's win to a Q2 win, and if Texas A&M comes back again it can change back to a Q1.

[Beachcat97]

Ristic has a double double in 3 out his last 4 games. That's pretty impressive, especially when you out there with Ayton, who gets a double double pretty much every game.

Ristic’s improvement this year has been remarkable. He’s got an outside chance at the all Pac team.

[jsbowl16]

Ristic has a double double in 3 out his last 4 games. That's pretty impressive, especially when you out there with Ayton, who gets a double double pretty much every game.

I agree that offensively that is impressive. It is the lack of quickness and movement on the defensive end when they play together that costs us a lot of points.

[TheGreatCatsby]

The twin towers lineup ultimately is our best lineup with Dusan playing so well of late. It's just that twin towers lineups are rare and we're learning how to play with two 7 footers that both can shoot all over the place. Defensively, it's weird how we can close the lanes at times and others do a horrible job at it. Vs USC last week, first 8 min USC drove the lane easily and our bigs were nowhere in sight to defend at the rim. USC never got another good cutting lane like that after the entire game. We did a good job in general vs ASU, though Justice was getting through the D pretty good.

[jsbowl16]

The twin towers lineup ultimately is our best lineup with Dusan playing so well of late. It's just that twin towers lineups are rare and we're learning how to play with two 7 footers that both can shoot all over the place. Defensively, it's weird how we can close the lanes at times and others do a horrible job at it. Vs USC last week, first 8 min USC drove the lane easily and our bigs were nowhere in sight to defend at the rim. USC never got another good cutting lane like that after the entire game. We did a good job in general vs ASU, though Justice was getting through the D pretty good.

I have only been keeping track of this since it caught my eye last Saturday but over the last two games when Ristic and Ayton are in together we scored 13 less points than our opponent and when they are not in together we scored 34 points more than our opponent. That is some pretty good evidence that the two of them in together is not our best lineup. It looks imposing when they are in together but the stats tell a different story especially defensively. I have only started tracking this the last two games so maybe it is an anomaly but since most are agreeing that these were two of our better wins, maybe the level of play actually getting better when the bench comes in is the main story here.

I hope the lineup with the two of them together is a plus and not a minus the rest of the season because we need this lineup to play better to advance in March.

In fairness to Ristic and Ayton they have both been playing really well the last two games. It is a bit unfair to both of them to expect them to be a great all around defender at the four which shows when they play together.

[Longhorned]

At the close of next week's Oregon road swing, I'll be ready to call it on this team's defense.

If they don't defend well either game, then their defense is just too weak heading into March.

If they defend well one game but not the other, then their defense is too inconsistent heading into March.

If they defend well both games, then that's four strong defensive outings in a row, and this team is headed in the right direction going into March.

[Spaceman Spiff]

At the close of next week's Oregon road swing, I'll be ready to call it on this team's defense.

If they don't defend well either game, then their defense is just too weak heading into March.

If they defend well one game but not the other, then their defense is too inconsistent heading into March.

If they defend well both games, then that's four strong defensive outings in a row, and this team is headed in the right direction going into March.

My money would be on inconsistent. That would leave me in the same place about March, hoping the good emerges for long enough to eat some W's.

[YoDeFoe]

At the close of next week's Oregon road swing, I'll be ready to call it on this team's defense.

If they don't defend well either game, then their defense is just too weak heading into March.

If they defend well one game but not the other, then their defense is too inconsistent heading into March.

If they defend well both games, then that's four strong defensive outings in a row, and this team is headed in the right direction going into March.

My money would be on inconsistent. That would leave me in the same place about March, hoping the good emerges for long enough to eat some W's.

Basically the same place we've been all year - "please get better in time on D" - with just less and less time on the horizon.

[Spaceman Spiff]

At the close of next week's Oregon road swing, I'll be ready to call it on this team's defense.

If they don't defend well either game, then their defense is just too weak heading into March.

If they defend well one game but not the other, then their defense is too inconsistent heading into March.

If they defend well both games, then that's four strong defensive outings in a row, and this team is headed in the right direction going into March.

My money would be on inconsistent. That would leave me in the same place about March, hoping the good emerges for long enough to eat some W's.

Basically the same place we've been all year - "please get better in time on D" - with just less and less time on the horizon.

We can be better. I've seen it with my own two eyes. Tourney time is about taking the good defensive stretches and making them last for full games one after the other.

We have the pros and cons of a inconsistent team.

[Olsondogg]

If you keep searching for that defense, you'll miss out on the tremendous offense.

[PHXCATS]

At the close of next week's Oregon road swing, I'll be ready to call it on this team's defense.

If they don't defend well either game, then their defense is just too weak heading into March.

If they defend well one game but not the other, then their defense is too inconsistent heading into March.

If they defend well both games, then that's four strong defensive outings in a row, and this team is headed in the right direction going into March.

My money would be on inconsistent. That would leave me in the same place about March, hoping the good emerges for long enough to eat some W's.

Basically the same place we've been all year - "please get better in time on D" - with just less and less time on the horizon.

We can be better. I've seen it with my own two eyes. Tourney time is about taking the good defensive stretches and making them last for full games one after the other.

We have the pros and cons of a inconsistent team.

Agree. It is all bout just playing smart and hard consistently. The ability and knowledge is there and has been taught to the players

[ChooChooCat]

If you keep searching for that defense, you'll miss out on the tremendous offense.

I'm just along for the ride now brother. Hope for the best, enjoy what I like, and not freak out about what I don't. Just let it happen.

[Alieberman]

Defense only matters if we aren’t scoring enough

[PHXCATS]

Bring the 2nd half USC and asu and Texas A&M defense and intensity and things will work themselves out

[Bangkok Wildcat]

If you keep searching for that defense, you'll miss out on the tremendous offense.

I'm just along for the ride now brother. Hope for the best, enjoy what I like, and not freak out about what I don't. Just let it happen.

Well-said....me too Choo.

At this point I just want to win the P12, hopefully the P12 Tourney and make it to the Sweet 16....anything extra is pure bonus. Definitely going to appreciate winning the regular season title more these days.

[Longhorned]

Defense only matters if we aren’t scoring enough

And like I always say, shooting well is for teams that aren't good enough to keep grabbing offensive rebounds.

I wish our offense didn't stagnate every time we give up easy buckets. But those set defenses only make it harder.

[zonagrad]

Miller and staff are going to be challenged in the NCAA tournament with match ups. If Ristic is in the game, then his offense must be exploited and we need our O to be super efficient. It can't be just so-so. If the match ups neutralize Ristic on offense, then Miller needs to adjust accordingly because defensively we'll be at a disadvantage. But it doesn't just fall on Ristic. Trier, PJC & Alkins ultimately make or break our defense when Ristic is on the floor. The fewer times they get beat, the fewer times Ristic's slowness is exposed.

Against ASU, it was especially frustrating to watch Trier get beat off the dribble by Holder and Kodi Justice repeatedly shaking free of Alkins. We were fortunate Holder missed as many shots as he did. Some of them were good looks early as ASU fell behind.

I re-watched the ASU game and paid close attention to the officiating. All in all, the game was called very well. The refs didn't fall for the flopping by ASU's guards any time there was a bit of contact. And they didn't bail out ASU's guards every time they drove and initiated contact. I think that's what upset Hurley because normally Pac 12 refs reward those plays. The refs let a lot of it go. Of course there were a few missed calls, but they went both ways. Trier was flattened by Romelo White when he set a screen in the first half. In the second half, the same play happened and the foul was called.

Because our guards and big men are bigger than ASU (except for PJC), more contact is allowed against them. ASU certainly played physical every time Ayton touched the ball. I would expect much of the same this week on the Oregon trip. Hopefully the officiating will be as good as it was in Tempe. We should get more trips to the foul line. We're more talented and opponents have to be very physical with our best players or they'll get handled.

On defense, we just need to play smarter and be committed to keeping the ball handler in check and not give up easy drives.

[PHXCATS]

Defense only matters if we aren’t scoring enough

What about all the double digit leads blown? Offensive problems? What about UCLA last year?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Defense only matters if we aren’t scoring enough

What about all the double digit leads blown? Offensive problems? What about UCLA last year?

They can all be prevented with more scoring. Or more defense. Or more rebounding. Or a combination of the 3.

[zonagrad]

Defense only matters if we aren’t scoring enough

What about all the double digit leads blown? Offensive problems? What about UCLA last year?

They can all be prevented with more scoring. Or more defense. Or more rebounding. Or a combination of the 3.

You can't have a great offensive night every game. Sometimes you have a poor shooting nigh even though you're getting good looks. But defense should be sharp every game.

[CalStateTempe]

Question: if the defense is consistently awesome going forward do we rev up the “win and vacate “ bus again?

[PHXCATS]

Question: if the defense is consistently awesome going forward do we rev up the “win and vacate “ bus again?

Yes

[Spaceman Spiff]

Question: if the defense is consistently awesome going forward do we rev up the “win and vacate “ bus again?

I'm not sure we should ever have stopped it. We have shown we can perform at the level needed to go far. Our issue is in how consistently we produce at that level. Our issue in March isn't ability, it's in consistently playing to our ability.

[CalStateTempe]

Question: if the defense is consistently awesome going forward do we rev up the “win and vacate “ bus again?

I'm not sure we should ever have stopped it. We have shown we can perform at the level needed to go far. Our issue is in how consistently we produce at that level. Our issue in March isn't ability, it's in consistently playing to our ability.

My bad, I took the bus into the shop cause it wasn’t running like it should (great acceleration and handling but a bit touchy, you never knew if the brakes would always work) and a weird smell that lingered far too long after a beach road trip.

I’ll call and get it out.

[ChooChooCat]

I mean as long as we're doing the opposite of what Hank of SB tells us to do we're steering towards the right course of action.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Question: if the defense is consistently awesome going forward do we rev up the “win and vacate “ bus again?

I'm not sure we should ever have stopped it. We have shown we can perform at the level needed to go far. Our issue is in how consistently we produce at that level. Our issue in March isn't ability, it's in consistently playing to our ability.

My bad, I took the bus into the shop cause it wasn’t running like it should (great acceleration and handling but a bit touchy, you never knew if the brakes would always work) and a weird smell that lingered far too long after a beach road trip.

I’ll call and get it out.

I get the loss of faith. I certainly don't think the likelihood it happens is as high as I did in early November.

I saw our potential vs Texas A&M in spurts, and that was the first time after the shock in the Bahamas I thought we had the ability to make a deep run. Since then, the potential has been on display now and again. Personally, I've faded intok thinking it will either show up in March or not. I wouldn't be shocked with a NC or first round exit.

I really like the beach road trip metaphor. That was a bad, bad trip.

[YoDeFoe]

I re-watched the ASU game and paid close attention to the officiating. All in all, the game was called very well. The refs didn't fall for the flopping by ASU's guards any time there was a bit of contact. And they didn't bail out ASU's guards every time they drove and initiated contact. I think that's what upset Hurley because normally Pac 12 refs reward those plays. The refs let a lot of it go. Of course there were a few missed calls, but they went both ways. Trier was flattened by Romelo White when he set a screen in the first half. In the second half, the same play happened and the foul was called.

For reference, that was only the second game that we've played in conference where the three refs collectively averaged a top 50 ranking in the country. UCLA at Arizona was the other one. It was only one of three games where we didn't have a ref ranked outside of the top 100 working our game (ASU at UA being the third).

It's a noticeable difference.

Hopefully the officiating will be as good as it was in Tempe.

Fat chance. The Oregon at Arizona game ref average was in the 100s. The OSU at UA game ref average was in the 200s.

[Longhorned]

I was thinking about that, YDF - as awful as that UCLA game was, the one positive was the officiating.

[YoDeFoe]

Hopefully the officiating will be as good as it was in Tempe.

Fat chance. The Oregon at Arizona game ref average was in the 100s. The OSU at UA game ref average was in the 200s.

Because I can't help myself... I ran the numbers on home court ref rankings in conference play for a handful of the top conference teams including Arizona, UCLA, USC, Oregon (and ASU).

On average, Oregon has had the best ranked home refs... and it's not real close.

Arizona has had the worst.

* Arizona - 96 average ref rank
* ASU - 90 average ref rank
* UCLA - 70 average ref rank
* USC - 69 average ref rank
* Oregon - 50 average ref rank

So maybe we get good refs at Oregon. But also again... why don't we get good refs at Arizona and why is the best we can do as a conference barely top 50 in the country?

[YoDeFoe]

I was thinking about that, YDF - as awful as that UCLA game was, the one positive was the officiating.

Kinda glad we couldn't blame the refs in that one, especially after what I thought was an absurdly officiated Washington game that we lost.

Just a clear cut loss that seems to have lit a fire under our guys.

[CalStateTempe]

So to be clear, get ready for a dressing down 5 on 8 game sat, right?

[PHXCATS]

So to be clear, get ready for a dressing down 5 on 8 game sat, right?

Nope

[CalStateTempe]

The data is the data.