Bear Down Wildcats

Chicat wrote:Good stuff 97. I'm convinced. Which doesn't fill me with joy because as I said I don't want to see Gonzaga again.

Does it help that Gonzaga will wilt as soon as it faces a 3-seed? Or that RHJ was a sixth man back in November? Or that Gonzaga's lone top-50 win was against SMU way back in November?

Chicat wrote:Good stuff 97. I'm convinced. Which doesn't fill me with joy because as I said I don't want to see Gonzaga again.

I'd much rather see Gonzaga again than see Kentucky or Virginia. Gonzaga is a good team but we can beat them. I say that because we already have. We're going to be a 1 or 2, and get paired with another good 1 or 2. UK and UVA are our toughest matchups. We won't get any cakewalks because we aren't UConn.

In the west: If Arizona is a 1, then I want Nova as a 2. If Nova is a 1, I want Arizona as the 2.

That is a magical bracket. Make it happen.

Irish27 wrote:#2 in the west with Villanova #1.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

That's a dream bracket. Notre Dame then Villanova in Los Angeles? Sounds good.

I kinda liked how the brackets with Gonzaga as the #1 in the West and us as the #2 looked; they all had us generally set with a weakish #3 from the east and then the Zags which was fine by me. I'm wondering if, in the end, we don't end with something worse like Duke being shipped as the #1, us as the #2 and the Zags as the #3.

This discussion is a hell of a lot better than the one we had a few years ago.

I like this guys site with regards to us.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... cketology/

Cats information.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket ... acketology

This dipshit has Utah as a 2 and Arizona as a 3.

http://nropp.com/project68.html

azgreg wrote:This dipshit has Utah as a 2 and Arizona as a 3.

http://nropp.com/project68.html

And Kansas a 2? Hilarious...

SCCats wrote:

Irish27 wrote:#2 in the west with Villanova #1.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

That's a dream bracket. Notre Dame then Villanova in Los Angeles? Sounds good.

I kinda liked how the brackets with Gonzaga as the #1 in the West and us as the #2 looked; they all had us generally set with a weakish #3 from the east and then the Zags which was fine by me. I'm wondering if, in the end, we don't end with something worse like Duke being shipped as the #1, us as the #2 and the Zags as the #3.

Typical east coast bias: Georgetown and Utah both with 6 seeds!?

Spaceman Spiff wrote:

Chicat wrote:Good stuff 97. I'm convinced. Which doesn't fill me with joy because as I said I don't want to see Gonzaga again.

I'd much rather see Gonzaga again than see Kentucky or Virginia. Gonzaga is a good team but we can beat them. I say that because we already have. We're going to be a 1 or 2, and get paired with another good 1 or 2. UK and UVA are our toughest matchups. We won't get any cakewalks because we aren't UConn.

Agree, but what about Zags vs. Wisky or Villanova or Kansas, which strike me as more likely? Leaning toward preferring KU and Nova then Zags. Not Wisky.

There are no cakewalks, UConn included.

USA Today now has Villanova as the 1 seed in the West with Arizona 2. Please let it be so.

Nova and AZ are the #4 and 5 teams right now. If both hold it makes sense that they will be the 1, and 2 in the West but the order may change

Alieberman wrote:Nova and AZ are the #4 and 5 teams right now. If both hold it makes sense that they will be the 1, and 2 in the West but the order may change

correct, you understand my position which is i find it almost impossible if Arizona wins out that they would not be rewarded as the #1 in their region of the country.

especially because the win at Utah might be the most impressive win for any team the entire season -- to AZ's benefit it happened on the road and in the west region.

Alieberman wrote:Nova and AZ are the #4 and 5 teams right now. If both hold it makes sense that they will be the 1, and 2 in the West but the order may change

I think if Nova falls to the 2 then the geographical considerations will take precedence and they'll be back east with Gonzaga getting the 2 seed in the West. The only reason why Villanova would be in the West would be because they are the weakest 1 seed and no other 1 seed makes geographical sense.

I agree Chi - but the point is - if AZ wins the last two & the PAC tourney (on top of Sat's win AT Utah), it's going to be incredibly difficult for the committee to not give UofA the 1 seed in the West. Actually - it would be almost insane not to. Regardless of anyone else's performance.

Bear Down Vegas wrote:I agree Chi - but the point is - if AZ wins the last two & the PAC tourney (on top of Sat's win AT Utah), it's going to be incredibly difficult for the committee to not give UofA the 1 seed in the West. Actually - it would be almost insane not to. Regardless of anyone else's performance.

I don't know honestly. Villanova is on an 11-game winning streak and if they beat St. Johns and win the Big East tourney it will be 15 wins in a row in the 2nd best conference according to RPI (Pac-12 is 6th) with wins at Butler and at Xavier. I don't know that the win at Utah is enough to elevate Arizona over Villanova with the relative weakness of the Pac-12.

So while I see Arizona as deserving of the 1 seed, I think the amount of mental gymnastics enough impartial committee members would have to engage in to come to the same conclusion makes it unlikely. And if it did happen, a lot of people would be up in arms that a 2-loss consensus 1 seed was bumped down to a 2 for no apparent reason on paper.

Chicat wrote:

Alieberman wrote:Nova and AZ are the #4 and 5 teams right now. If both hold it makes sense that they will be the 1, and 2 in the West but the order may change

I think if Nova falls to the 2 then the geographical considerations will take precedence and they'll be back east with Gonzaga getting the 2 seed in the West. The only reason why Villanova would be in the West would be because they are the weakest 1 seed and no other 1 seed makes geographical sense.

You might be right. I would rather be matched with Nova then the Zags though.... So should I be rooting for Nova to win out and us losing the final in Vegas?

If we win out and Dook loses in their tourney (even in the final) can we pass them?

of note: is Arizona wins out they are projected to have an RPI of 3 to end the season

Alieberman wrote:

Chicat wrote:

Alieberman wrote:Nova and AZ are the #4 and 5 teams right now. If both hold it makes sense that they will be the 1, and 2 in the West but the order may change

I think if Nova falls to the 2 then the geographical considerations will take precedence and they'll be back east with Gonzaga getting the 2 seed in the West. The only reason why Villanova would be in the West would be because they are the weakest 1 seed and no other 1 seed makes geographical sense.

You might be right. I would rather be matched with Nova then the Zags though.... So should I be rooting for Nova to win out and us losing the final in Vegas?

Personally, I would rather see Villanova as the 1 with UA as the 2 than UA as the 1 and Gonzaga as the 2.

97cats wrote:of note: is Arizona wins out they are projected to have an RPI of 3 to end the season

RPI Forecast has Villanova at 4.5 and Arizona at 5.1 if they both win their conference tourney: http://www.rpiforecast.com/ct/index.html

31-3 91.18% 3.4 43.69%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Arizona.html

if we do win our next 5 and finish 31-3 I think we would get a 1 seed

azgreg wrote:If we win out and Dook loses in their tourney (even in the final) can we pass them?

Absolutely. I wouldn't even say they are ahead of us right now. We have the advantage of an easier conference tourney and being the top dog in the West.

If us and Nova win out the 1 seeds could easily be UK, UVA, Nova, Az. The 2 seeds could be Wiscy, Duke, Gonzaga, and another top ranked team that stayed hot these next couple weeks.

97cats wrote:31-3 91.18% 3.4 43.69%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Arizona.html

Good stuff... but all of these teams are projected to finish ahead of us in the RPI if they win out:

Villanova:
32-2 94.12% 2.5 45.06%

Duke:
31-3 91.18% 2.3 13.5%

Virginia:
32-1 96.97% 2.0 23.41%

Wisconsin:
31-3 91.18% 2.9 19.34%

Obviously both Virginia and Duke can't win out, so that takes care of that. If Virginia loses in the ACC championship game their RPI would be 3. If Duke loses it would be 3.6. But would the committee bump Duke down to a 2 seed if they lose to a Virginia team they've already beaten? I mean, they should, especially with that ugly home loss to Miami, but will they?

I don't remember previous years presenting such a complete cluster**** of obvious 1-seeds that there aren't enough brackets for.

Longhorned wrote:I don't remember previous years presenting such a complete cluster**** of obvious 1-seeds that there aren't enough brackets for.

Time for the octagon bracket.

we will see, i am almost 100% certain that if AZ wins out they will be the #1 Seed -- West Region

I sound like an entitled asshole to say this, but the committee has a long-standing pattern of giving Arizona the benefit of the doubt because Arizona has earned it. In that regard, there's the west regional and -- if Arizona wins out and takes the conference tourney championship -- the clear #1 team in the west, whose wins are as impressive as anyone's, and whose overall portfolio is as strong as anyone's.

This is a crazy year. You got like eight really strong teams, a few on the fringe, and the separation from the those teams and the next level is pretty dramatic. Which is about the only way you can see a 31-3 team from a major conference not be a one seed, with three top-15 (RPI) wins against Utah (home and away, 13 RPI), Gonzaga (home, 8 RPI), and SDSU (neutral, 24 RPI) Oregon (home and away, 32 RPI).

I'm with 97, I just dont see how we can win out and not be a 1. I think we just need to worry about winning out and things will take care of themselves somehow. I think the likelihood of Duke or Virginia losing before their conference championship game, or Nova not winning their conference tournament, is pretty decent. Nova and Virginia are primed to lose soon me thinks.

Longhorned wrote:I sound like an entitled asshole to say this, but the committee has a long-standing pattern of giving Arizona the benefit of the doubt because Arizona has earned it. In that regard, there's the west regional and -- if Arizona wins out and takes the conference tourney championship -- the clear #1 team in the west, whose wins are as impressive as anyone's, and whose overall portfolio is as strong as anyone's.

For all the East Coast bias arguments, being in the West pays off when we're on the #1 seed line. #1's generally stay as close to home as possible, and right now, the only program in the West that is capable of being a #1 other than us is Gonzaga. If we played in the Midwest, we would have to battle for a region. Right now, if we get a #1, we fall into the West by default.

rgdeuce wrote:This is a crazy year. You got like eight really strong teams, a few on the fringe, and the separation from the those teams and the next level is pretty dramatic. Which is about the only way you can see a 31-3 team from a major conference not be a one seed, with three top-15 (RPI) wins against Utah (home and away, 13 RPI), Gonzaga (home, 8 RPI), and SDSU (neutral, 24 RPI) Oregon (home and away, 32 RPI).

I'm with 97, I just dont see how we can win out and not be a 1. I think we just need to worry about winning out and things will take care of themselves somehow. I think the likelihood of Duke or Virginia losing before their conference championship game, or Nova not winning their conference tournament, is pretty decent. Nova and Virginia are primed to lose soon me thinks.

Yeah, I can't recall a season where there is so little movement in the polls among the Top 8 teams down the stretch. In any other season, it would be insane to consider a 31-3 team from a major conference getting a 2 seed. This isn't any other season. Somebody with an excellent resume is getting a 2 seed. Isolating that team makes it seem unfair. Stacking it against the others makes it understandable.

Must Sweep v. 10.0

Easier road to the Elite 8 as a 1 or 2 seed? Im liking the 2, plus it would be nice to not fly to Pitt for the first 2 games

Jefe wrote:Easier road to the Elite 8 as a 1 or 2 seed? Im liking the 2, plus it would be nice to not fly to Pitt for the first 2 games

What are you talking about? PITT?

97cats wrote:we will see, i am almost 100% certain that if AZ wins out they will be the #1 Seed -- West Region

Pac 12 reg season champs, Pac 12 tourney champs, a win over Gonzaga...yeah, I think we'll be the #1 in the West.

Jefe wrote:Easier road to the Elite 8 as a 1 or 2 seed? Im liking the 2, plus it would be nice to not fly to Pitt for the first 2 games

We play in Portland or Seattle guaranteed.

Beachcat97 wrote:

97cats wrote:we will see, i am almost 100% certain that if AZ wins out they will be the #1 Seed -- West Region

Pac 12 reg season champs, Pac 12 tourney champs, a win over Gonzaga...yeah, I think we'll be the #1 in the West.

This is all moot if we don't win out. I'm just wondering who's getting an all-expenses paid jaunt to some sunny locale to keep us off the one-line.

This is the first time in a long time that I don't care about seed. I think we're beating any team anywhere except for UK, UVA and maybe Duke. I mean, there are solid teams, and we'll be in close games, but this team is so superior to most competition when it plays up that I don't think geography or pre-Elite 8 path matters much.

Chicat wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:

97cats wrote:we will see, i am almost 100% certain that if AZ wins out they will be the #1 Seed -- West Region

Pac 12 reg season champs, Pac 12 tourney champs, a win over Gonzaga...yeah, I think we'll be the #1 in the West.

This is all moot if we don't win out. I'm just wondering who's getting an all-expenses paid jaunt to some sunny locale to keep us off the one-line.

Oh, if we lose before Selection Sunday, we don't deserve a 1, not if Nova and Wisconsin go undefeated the rest of the way.

Aren't we currently ranked #2 in Kenpom? Doesn't the committee look at that also?

etank34 wrote:Aren't we currently ranked #2 in Kenpom? Doesn't the committee look at that also?

Arizona is currently 0.0004 behind Virgina, and therefore #3. The committee members can look at whatever they want.

The teams i want to avoid being in the West:
UK (obvious)
Uva
Wisconsin

Not scared of any other team. Kentucky is Kentucky. Virginia will be a one or two possession game and a grind. And the thought of Kaminsky again before the FF is scary. Hes such an impossible guy to guard. He is a poor mans Dirk on O.

Id prefer Nova over Duke or Zags as they would be tougher matchup.

I am honestly rooting for Nova to win out and Arizona to at least win until Pac final. Give me the #2 seed in the West v the #1 seed in the West v anyone else unless somehow that last #2 seed gets shipped West (which isn't gonna happen)

97 is spot on. However, a Duke loss (and us winning out) will slam down our guaranteed #1 out west.

Chicat wrote:

Jefe wrote:Easier road to the Elite 8 as a 1 or 2 seed? Im liking the 2, plus it would be nice to not fly to Pitt for the first 2 games

We play in Portland or Seattle guaranteed.

If we get the #1 seed in the West, we play in Pittsburgh right?

Jefe wrote:

Chicat wrote:

Jefe wrote:Easier road to the Elite 8 as a 1 or 2 seed? Im liking the 2, plus it would be nice to not fly to Pitt for the first 2 games

We play in Portland or Seattle guaranteed.

If we get the #1 seed in the West, we play in Pittsburgh right?

Villanova will play in Pittsburgh in the first few rounds because it is their closest pod, so that's why you see it that way now. Arizona will play in Portland or Seattle no matter what.

Oh, makes sense

When is McKale going to get some March games again?

As long as we're in the west we'll be in Portland. The Anaheim regional games are on March 26/28(Thursday/Saturday) and the games in Portland are only on the 19/21 of March. Seattle feeds into the south and east regions. So we're in Portland.

Don't want to see Kaminsky again. UK, AZ, and Wisconsin are the three best teams. But in fairness to UVA and Nova, I haven't watched them enough.

Beachcat97 wrote:Don't want to see Kaminsky again. UK, AZ, and Wisconsin are the three best teams. But in fairness to UVA and Nova, I haven't watched them enough.

I truly believe a healthy UVA is better than Wisconsin. Their defense is BETTER than Kentucky's, and that's scary. Their offense is efficient and they play with 0 ego. Every shot is the best possible shot.

I believe that Wisconsin is the team most likely to beat UK because of how good their offense is. BUT I would rather play Wisconsin over UVA (which is crazy knowing what Kaminsky did to us last year, I know) because I am extremely afraid of how bad our offense would look against that UVA team. Wisky can't play any D, so we would just need to hope that we have a great offensive game which is certainly very possible.

If uva is healthy, those are your 4 best teams.

Then duke, zags, nova ...... then a huge drop off.

The champ is coming from those 7, and likely one of top 4.