let's talk '19

[Spaceman Spiff]

I wish him the best at UNC.

You’re calling it a done deal just like that ?!

It's not a done done deal or anything, but Arizona has been on him since he stepped foot in the country, which was years ago, UNC merely offered him a week or so ago and they stole all momentum in the recruitment with a snap of Roy "Thanos" Williams's finger. It'll be Arizona or UNC, but the odds don't sit in our favor at the moment.

We'll see. I care more about Mannion. Wing is usually pretty easy to recruit and we have a lot already stacked up.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Nico Mannion summer highlights:

https://youtu.be/LqIRO58LJPo" target="_blank

[Beachcat97]

Nico Mannion summer highlights:

https://youtu.be/LqIRO58LJPo" target="_blank

He's special. Not sure Miller has had a guard with quite this skill set.

[ChooChooCat]

Damn. That UNC "pull" is no joke. Seems like they don't lose too many.

Quite frankly prior to the FBI shit the UNC "pull" was a joke to us. We didn't have much problems at all recruiting against Crying Roy. The sole reason Nassir Little ended up at UNC was because both Arizona & Miami got tangled up in the FBI crap and UNC landed him by default.

[Beachcat97]

Damn. That UNC "pull" is no joke. Seems like they don't lose too many.

Quite frankly prior to the FBI shit the UNC "pull" was a joke to us. We didn't have much problems at all recruiting against Crying Roy. The sole reason Nassir Little ended up at UNC was because both Arizona & Miami got tangled up in the FBI crap and UNC landed him by default.

But they've gotten to four FFs in the past decade and won a NC in '17. So either Roy is doing more with less, or those rosters are every bit as loaded as they've ever been.

[ChooChooCat]

Damn. That UNC "pull" is no joke. Seems like they don't lose too many.

Quite frankly prior to the FBI shit the UNC "pull" was a joke to us. We didn't have much problems at all recruiting against Crying Roy. The sole reason Nassir Little ended up at UNC was because both Arizona & Miami got tangled up in the FBI crap and UNC landed him by default.

But they've gotten to four FFs in the past decade and won a NC in '17. So either Roy is doing more with less, or those rosters are every bit as loaded as they've ever been.

They've done it the same way Villanova has.

[CalStateTempe]

Truth

That’s what I saw following them hardcore from 2013-2017

[YoDeFoe]

Nico Mannion summer highlights:

https://youtu.be/LqIRO58LJPo" target="_blank

If he's anything but an Arizona Wildcat he's going to break my damn heart.

[Beachcat97]

Damn. That UNC "pull" is no joke. Seems like they don't lose too many.

Quite frankly prior to the FBI shit the UNC "pull" was a joke to us. We didn't have much problems at all recruiting against Crying Roy. The sole reason Nassir Little ended up at UNC was because both Arizona & Miami got tangled up in the FBI crap and UNC landed him by default.

But they've gotten to four FFs in the past decade and won a NC in '17. So either Roy is doing more with less, or those rosters are every bit as loaded as they've ever been.

They've done it the same way Villanova has.

That's high praise for Roy. I've always seen him as the Phil Jackson of college hoops. He's been at two elite programs (like Phil coaching MJ's Bulls and Kobe/Shaq's Lakers) and has had a mile-long list of future NBA players over the years. With that much talent coming through, you start to reach FFs almost by default. Like Calipari is now doing at UK.

But maybe I'm selling Roy short. It's possible he's figured some things out over the past 10-15 years that he couldn't quite do at KU. I mean, four FFs in a decade is ridiculous. And he's been to SEVEN FFs over the past 16 years, including his final two years with KU.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Damn. That UNC "pull" is no joke. Seems like they don't lose too many.

Quite frankly prior to the FBI shit the UNC "pull" was a joke to us. We didn't have much problems at all recruiting against Crying Roy. The sole reason Nassir Little ended up at UNC was because both Arizona & Miami got tangled up in the FBI crap and UNC landed him by default.

But they've gotten to four FFs in the past decade and won a NC in '17. So either Roy is doing more with less, or those rosters are every bit as loaded as they've ever been.

They've had 14 McDonald's AA's from 2010 to present.

https://www.tarheeltimes.com/basketball ... icans.aspx" target="_blank

UNC might not be a one and done factory like UK, but they recruit at a very high level and have for a while.

[zonagrad]

The difference between Arizona and North Carolina the last several years is that Carolina hasn't had players leave early who clearly weren't first round material. They've had highly rated recruits decide to return for college year after year. Arizona hasn't, and it cost them. It causes instability when you're turning over your entire roster year after year. It's hard to establish leadership. Carolina didn't have players the caliber of Grant Jerrett, Brandon Ashley or Nick Johnson leave early only to end up in the D-league. Or G-league. Or whatever it's called. Carolina's players who were very good but not sure first round picks all decided to stay in school. The result was FF's and titles.

I'm not sure if any head coach has a crystal ball good enough to see if certain players aren't gonna stay. Maybe they do and maybe Miller knew what he was getting with his recruits. The bottom line, the only players who justifiably left early were Rondae, Stanley, Lauri, and Ayton. And I think you can throw Trier and Alkins in the same bunch as Jerrett and Ashley.

[ChooChooCat]

The difference between Arizona and North Carolina the last several years is that Carolina hasn't had players leave early who clearly weren't first round material. They've had highly rated recruits decide to return for college year after year. Arizona hasn't, and it cost them. It causes instability when you're turning over your entire roster year after year. It's hard to establish leadership. Carolina didn't have players the caliber of Grant Jerrett, Brandon Ashley or Nick Johnson leave early only to end up in the D-league. Or G-league. Or whatever it's called. Carolina's players who were very good but not sure first round picks all decided to stay in school. The result was FF's and titles.

I'm not sure if any head coach has a crystal ball good enough to see if certain players aren't gonna stay. Maybe they do and maybe Miller knew what he was getting with his recruits. The bottom line, the only players who justifiably left early were Rondae, Stanley, Lauri, and Ayton. And I think you can throw Trier and Alkins in the same bunch as Jerrett and Ashley.

Yep, what I should've said is they're utilizing the Villanova model, but with a bit of a higher rated players. Overall UNC is a steady mix of 4 stars mixed in with a few 5 stars who are not one and done talents, who have completely bought in and stayed multiple years. They call Roy "Crying Roy" for a reason. That man fucking cries until his players come back and it works. Lay on that guilt Roy!

[YoDeFoe]

FUN WITH NUMBERS

Let's do some trend analysis on players leaving UNC and Arizona - graduation, transfer, and draft. We'll then split the draft down to 1st rnd / 2nd rnd / undrafted. I'm going to look at 2011-12 season through 2017-18... seven seasons, pretty solid sample size, and more importantly that's when Wikipedia began providing info on departures. Of note: this is going to count all players including walk-ons.

Departures over the last seven seasons:



We've lost 15 more players. Damn. And it's not to graduation... it's transfers and draftees.

Let's drill down into draftees real quick.



About the same number of draft picks in total with about the same spread between 1st and 2nd round... but oh god, all those undrafted players from Arizona and none from UNC.

Now let's look at players leaving by their year of college.



Lord help me. Look at all those underclassmen leaving from Arizona... we've lost TWENTY ONE guys over the last seven season before they reach their junior year, most of them as freshman. Again transfers loom large here - with UNC sporting ZERO transfers over the period and Arizona facing 11, more than half of which were freshman. Then we look at the draft and it's more youth attrition... 10 underclassmen from Arizona to the draft against only 3 for UNC.

The breakdown of undrafted players from Arizona, by year, is one freshman, two sophomores, and three juniors. You can basically toss Grant Jerrett in that mix to make it two freshman, though, because he had a similar career to an undrafted player.

TL;DR: We're losing players early, both to the draft but also to transfer, and that lack of continuity and growing skill hurts our ability to perform. In total we've lost 17 more players than UNC over the past seven seasons to undrafted / might as well be and transfers.

[ASUHATER!]

Pretty stark difference. I definitely think if we follow the unc/Villanova recruiting model our luck can change.

[84Cat]

How do we get players to stay longer? Is that on Miller? Seems like he needs to recruit differently and let it be known that he is looking for 4 year players instead of ond's.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I've started wondering if Roy blackmails players or kills their marketability somehow. Every other high level recruiting program has significantly more transfers. UK has lost guys like Lee and Killeya just recently.

Same thing with the draft. We're closer to the norm in early entries. UNC has had big time prospects like Pinson almost go backwards but stay.

[ChooChooCat]

Going through UNC's classes they've recruited a total of 4 5 stars (beginning in 2012 and prior to the 2018 class with Nassir Little, who they wouldn't have landed normally), which were Isaiah Hicks who didn't start until he was a senior, Justin Jackson who started every year he was there and stayed until he was a junior, Theo Pinson who didn't start regularly until he was a senior, and Tony Bradley who was the one rarity and left after one year. They've consistently targeted guys who were ranked in the 30-50 range (similar to Nova) and have developed them and reaped the benefits.

Any 5 star that Arizona would have landed that contributed as little as Hicks and Pinson did their first two years would've bounced ASAP.

[ASUHATER!]

Going through UNC's classes they've recruited a total of 4 5 stars (beginning in 2012 and prior to the 2018 class with Nassir Little, who they wouldn't have landed normally), which were Isaiah Hicks who didn't start until he was a senior, Justin Jackson who started every year he was there and stayed until he was a junior, Theo Pinson who didn't start regularly until he was a senior, and Tony Bradley who was the one rarity and left after one year. They've consistently targeted guys who were ranked in the 30-50 range (similar to Nova) and have developed them and reaped the benefits.

Any 5 star that Arizona would have landed that contributed as little as Hicks and Pinson did their first two years would've bounced ASAP.

Yeah those same guys at Arizona wouldve transferred by the end of their freshman year or gone to the draft and gone undrafted but for some reason at UNC they stay 3-4 years

[CalStateTempe]

Killer discussion guys, a reason why I like this board so much.

Great analysis YDF and what it and others points speak to is what I’ve maintained is not all 4 and 5 stars are the same. Something about the individual players is/are different.

The thought that comes to mind spurred by the above discussion is maybe it’s a level of maturity and how the player and those around them seem delayed gratification vs the immediate jump. Maybe that’s what it is is; the 4 and 5 stars that duke and unc and villanova get truely “honor the process” whereas our 4 and 5 stars are short sighted in time horizon and in the process shortchange their development/potential into production.

I dunno, and I know the above isn’t clear, but just throwing that idea out there for discussions.

[ChooChooCat]

Going through UNC's classes they've recruited a total of 4 5 stars (beginning in 2012 and prior to the 2018 class with Nassir Little, who they wouldn't have landed normally), which were Isaiah Hicks who didn't start until he was a senior, Justin Jackson who started every year he was there and stayed until he was a junior, Theo Pinson who didn't start regularly until he was a senior, and Tony Bradley who was the one rarity and left after one year. They've consistently targeted guys who were ranked in the 30-50 range (similar to Nova) and have developed them and reaped the benefits.

Any 5 star that Arizona would have landed that contributed as little as Hicks and Pinson did their first two years would've bounced ASAP.

Yeah those same guys at Arizona wouldve transferred by the end of their freshman year or gone to the draft and gone undrafted but for some reason at UNC they stay 3-4 years

I am and will forever be very very very bitter about Justin Simon giving up after one fucking year.

[azcat49]

Maybe part of it is the perception of transferring from a school like NC? Waiting it out and eventually making it on the court seems to carry more weight externally than transferring and getting immediate playing time elsewhere,

[ChooChooCat]

Maybe part of it is the perception of transferring from a school like NC? Waiting it out and eventually making it on the court seems to carry more weight externally than transferring and getting immediate playing time elsewhere,

Not sure why UNC would be any different than any other school. As pointed out numerous kids transfer out of Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas.

[whatisee]

Maybe part of it is the perception of transferring from a school like NC? Waiting it out and eventually making it on the court seems to carry more weight externally than transferring and getting immediate playing time elsewhere,

Not sure why UNC would be any different than any other school. As pointed out numerous kids transfer out of Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas.

I'm sure it has to do with the lack of 5 star recruiting as was pointed out earlier. Easier to keep kids with lower expectations that may need to develop

[YoDeFoe]

Seems to be something unique about Roy. He's somehow able to bring in guys that would transfer or early declare at any other program, but he keeps them coming back to school.

Might just be his down home, sweeter than iced tea in Atlanta attitude, compared to guys like Coach K and Miller and Self who are hard on their guys.

I mean can you imagine Roy saying to one of his players, "If you ever talk to me like that again, m—f—er, you will never f—ing go back in the game."

[ByJoveByJingle]

I mean can you imagine Roy saying to one of his players, "If you ever talk to me like that again, m—f—er, you will never f—ing go back in the game."

Ah, good times . . .

[HiCat]

Mannion narrows it down to Arizona, Duke, Nova, and Marquette.

5-star PG Nico Mannion sets official visit to Arizona
5 comments
The Phoenix native will visit the UA twice in October
By Ryan Kelapire@RKelapire Aug 16, 2018, 6:39pm PDT

Five-star point guard Nico Mannion will visit the Arizona Wildcats twice in October, according to Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog.com.

The Phoenix native will officially visit the UA on Oct. 19-21 and will unofficially visit on Oct. 14 for the Red-Blue Game.

Mannion has also set official visits to Marquette (Oct. 5-8) and Villanova (Oct. 11-13), per Zagoria. The other school in his final four is Duke. He is not scheduled to visit there yet, but he is expected to.

Here is what Mannion told Zagoria about Arizona:
Coach [Mark] Phelps and I have kind of been going through their roster about who they’re going to have if I were to go there in ’19. They’ll have an older roster as well the players that they’re going to get. But I’m close to a couple of their players, like Ira [Lee] and Brandon Williams, which is cool. So I’ve talked to them a little bit and they say they love it up there.”

Mannion said he plans to commit by the end of January. The Wildcats are currently the overwhelming favorites, accounting for 13 of the 14 Crystal Ball predictions submitted. Villanova has the other.

The 6-foot-3 point guard is the No. 17 player in the 2019 class.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketbal ... recruiting" target="_blank

[ChooChooCat]

Made yet another final five.

[goslingswagg]

Made yet another final five.

You think we have a chance here? Heard some rumblings about LSU being favorites.

[ChooChooCat]

Made yet another final five.

You think we have a chance here? Heard some rumblings about LSU being favorites.

I think Arizona has a good shot here. The visits wil dictate where this recruitment goes.

[azcat49]

Choo, seems like we are recruiting a bunch of guys. Some 4 star and some 5. Other than Mannion and thoughts on who we really would like to get and who we probably should get?

[goslingswagg]

CJ would be an awesome get...him with Mannion, Koloko, and another wing (Armstrong, Green, or another 4 star wing) would be a super solid class imo.

[YoDeFoe]

[Spaceman Spiff]

CJ would be an awesome get...him with Mannion, Koloko, and another wing (Armstrong, Green, or another 4 star wing) would be a super solid class imo.

Watching his highlights, he would be an almost ideal small 4. He has the size to do it a la Akot, but can play the wing if needed.

[ChooChooCat]

Choo, seems like we are recruiting a bunch of guys. Some 4 star and some 5. Other than Mannion and thoughts on who we really would like to get and who we probably should get?

At the moment I fully expect to land Mannion (I think that could get done by fall signing day) and Christian Koloko. From there on it's totally up in the air. Some of these guys who have included us in their top 5, 8, whatever like Drew Timme, Jeremiah Earl-Robinson, Patrick Williams, and Jaelyn Withers are a waste of time as they're going elsewhere, while others like Josh Green, Boogie Ellis, CJ Walker are guys we gave a genuine shot with. If I'm Arizona I take all 3 of those guys I just named if I can land them. It will be interesting to see what we can pull.

[billk78]

Choo, seems like we are recruiting a bunch of guys. Some 4 star and some 5. Other than Mannion and thoughts on who we really would like to get and who we probably should get?

At the moment I fully expect to land Mannion (I think that could get done by fall signing day) and Christian Koloko. From there on it's totally up in the air. Some of these guys who have included us in their top 5, 8, whatever like Drew Timme, Jeremiah Earl-Robinson, Patrick Williams, and Jaelyn Withers are a waste of time as they're going elsewhere, while others like Josh Green, Boogie Ellis, CJ Walker are guys we gave a genuine shot with. If I'm Arizona I take all 3 of those guys I just named if I can land them. It will be interesting to see what we can pull.

If Nico commits by Fall does that help our chances with any of the other guys? I know he has played with Josh Green...

[Spaceman Spiff]

Choo, seems like we are recruiting a bunch of guys. Some 4 star and some 5. Other than Mannion and thoughts on who we really would like to get and who we probably should get?

At the moment I fully expect to land Mannion (I think that could get done by fall signing day) and Christian Koloko. From there on it's totally up in the air. Some of these guys who have included us in their top 5, 8, whatever like Drew Timme, Jeremiah Earl-Robinson, Patrick Williams, and Jaelyn Withers are a waste of time as they're going elsewhere, while others like Josh Green, Boogie Ellis, CJ Walker are guys we gave a genuine shot with. If I'm Arizona I take all 3 of those guys I just named if I can land them. It will be interesting to see what we can pull.

Mannion and two others would be a great class. Jeter, Lee, Williams, at least one of Akot/Randy, Barcello, Thielemans, maybe Smith, Doutrive and dude from Colgate should all be returning.

Jeter, Lee, Williams, Akot/Randolph and at least one of the rest (if not more) should be easily rotation guys. I'm not sure Smith would return if Akot and Randolph both did, but Akot and Randolph have star potential. Either way, adding high quality wings means more of the somewhat smaller, more athletic team this year promises.

I salivate over Mannion and soph Williams playing together.

[ChooChooCat]

If Nico commits by Fall does that help our chances with any of the other guys? I know he has played with Josh Green...

I mean it certainly wouldn't hurt our chances with Green, but we've been involved with Green for as long as he's been in the country. If he goes to UNC it's because he just really really has a hard on for that program and Mannion isn't going to change that. I don't know anybody else we're after that Mannion would help with honestly.

Mannion and two others would be a great class. Jeter, Lee, Williams, at least one of Akot/Randy, Barcello, Thielemans, maybe Smith, Doutrive and dude from Colgate should all be returning.

Jeter, Lee, Williams, Akot/Randolph and at least one of the rest (if not more) should be easily rotation guys. I'm not sure Smith would return if Akot and Randolph both did, but Akot and Randolph have star potential. Either way, adding high quality wings means more of the somewhat smaller, more athletic team this year promises.

I salivate over Mannion and soph Williams playing together.

I expect a 5 man class honestly. Also Stone Gettings is from Cornell not Colgate, get it straight Spiff!

[Spaceman Spiff]

If Nico commits by Fall does that help our chances with any of the other guys? I know he has played with Josh Green...

I mean it certainly wouldn't hurt our chances with Green, but we've been involved with Green for as long as he's been in the country. If he goes to UNC it's because he just really really has a hard on for that program and Mannion isn't going to change that. I don't know anybody else we're after that Mannion would help with honestly.

Mannion and two others would be a great class. Jeter, Lee, Williams, at least one of Akot/Randy, Barcello, Thielemans, maybe Smith, Doutrive and dude from Colgate should all be returning.

Jeter, Lee, Williams, Akot/Randolph and at least one of the rest (if not more) should be easily rotation guys. I'm not sure Smith would return if Akot and Randolph both did, but Akot and Randolph have star potential. Either way, adding high quality wings means more of the somewhat smaller, more athletic team this year promises.

I salivate over Mannion and soph Williams playing together.

I expect a 5 man class honestly. Also Stone Gettings is from Cornell not Colgate, get it straight Spiff!

Koloko seems more like a developmental guy, so adding a grad transfer big is something I'd like if we get him and no one else who can assist the Jeter/Lee combo.

I don't know how I effed up Cornell when I even thought of the Nard Dog when I was posting. Geez.

I like adding developmental guys to our classes. If the guys like Barcello, Doutrive and Thielmans develop, they are big assets later on.

[goslingswagg]

I expect a 5 man class honestly. Also Stone Gettings is from Cornell not Colgate, get it straight Spiff!

5 man class with Stone included? Or 5 in addition to Stone?

[ChooChooCat]

I expect a 5 man class honestly. Also Stone Gettings is from Cornell not Colgate, get it straight Spiff!

5 man class with Stone included? Or 5 in addition to Stone?

My guess is 5 with Stone, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up 5 plus Stone.

[ChooChooCat]

New 247 Rankings:

4. Jaden McDaniels
9. Nico Mannion
15. Josh Green
25. Boogie Ellis
31. Zeke Nnaji
41. CJ Walker
44. Drew Timme
54. Patrick Williams
62. Terry Armstrong
71. Lester Quinones
76. Christian Koloko
121. Jaelyn Withers

Bolded guys are the top targets and who we have the best chance with at the moment.

[Spaceman Spiff]

New 247 Rankings:

4. Jaden McDaniels
9. Nico Mannion
15. Josh Green
25. Boogie Ellis
31. Zeke Nnaji
41. CJ Walker
44. Drew Timme
54. Patrick Williams
62. Terry Armstrong
71. Lester Quinones
76. Christian Koloko
121. Jaelyn Withers

Bolded guys are the top targets and who we have the best chance with at the moment.

Mannion, Koloko and any of the other bolded three would be a killer class.

[Beachcat97]

Doesn't look like the scandal has had too great an effect on our recruiting. I know we're still waiting on guys, but we're looking good with multiple key recruits.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Doesn't look like the scandal has had too great an effect on our recruiting. I know we're still waiting on guys, but we're looking good with multiple key recruits.

It wasn't an accident that we were recruiting at a high level pre-FBI. We took a major hit in last year's class, but there's no reason to believe we can't get back to about where we were.

[baycat93]

New 247 Rankings:

4. Jaden McDaniels
9. Nico Mannion
15. Josh Green
25. Boogie Ellis
31. Zeke Nnaji
41. CJ Walker
44. Drew Timme
54. Patrick Williams
62. Terry Armstrong
71. Lester Quinones
76. Christian Koloko
121. Jaelyn Withers

Bolded guys are the top targets and who we have the best chance with at the moment.

Mannion, Koloko and any of the other bolded three would be a killer class.

I would be great with armstrong/quinones replacing green/ellis. Outside of getting McDaniels, I think Akot/Randolph returning is what will define 19/20 teams ultimate success.

Williams So
Manion Fr
Randolph Jr
Akot Jr
Jeter Rsr

imo, Looks a lot different than

Williams So
Manion Fr
Green Fr
Gettings Rsr
Jeter Rsr

Returning 4 starters vs 2 I think is a big deal. Especially if Willams/Randolph/Akot prove to be good defensively this year. They could be elite next.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Williams, Mannion, Randolph, Akot and Jeter is a "back in the final four hunt" type lineup.

[YoDeFoe]

Williams, Mannion, Randolph, Akot and Jeter is a "back in the final four hunt" type lineup.

Here's hoping those players that we have perform this season.

[goslingswagg]

Williams, Mannion, Randolph, Akot and Jeter is a "back in the final four hunt" type lineup.

Agree. I would also say that we would presumably have a strong bench then too...I think a backup 5 of Barcello, Devonaire, Thielemans, Lee, and Gettings would be very strong. Obviously it's likely we will lose at least one, more likely a couple of those 10 guys going into next year, but a man can dream right?

[HiCat]

Five-star point guard Nico Mannion is scheduled to visit the Arizona Wildcats twice in October. They will be visiting him in September.

Arizona head coach Sean Miller and assistant coach Mark Phelps are set to visit the Mannion household at 5 p.m. on Sept. 9, according to this tweet from Christian PoP’oola (Mannion retweeted it, and this is 2018, so it must be true):

The Phoenix native will visit Marquette on Oct. 5-8, Villanova on Oct. 11-13, and Arizona on Oct. 19-21. Mannion will also unofficially visit Arizona for the Red-Blue Game on Oct. 14.

Arizona continues to be the perceived frontrunner in Mannion’s recruitment, accounting for 13 of the 14 Crystal Ball predictions submitted.


https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketbal ... recruiting" target="_blank

[Beachcat97]

Think we're right where we want to be with Nico.