Bear Down Wildcats

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 5:45 pm As long as Ari goes to Tempe I feel good about the game.

this is an excellent point and one i endorse as well.

Larsson has been a bit of a disappointment so far. When I looked at tape of him, I saw a mashup of Luke Kennard and Casey Jacobsen, two phenomenal players. He's better than what he has shown us so far. If he puts in the work, he can become a formidable player.

RawleArenas wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 5:52 pm Larsson has been a bit of a disappointment so far. When I looked at tape of him, I saw a mashup of Luke Kennard and Casey Jacobsen, two phenomenal players. He's better than what he has shown us so far. If he puts in the work, he can become a formidable player.

He's a very good defender though. Especially against forwards.

Which is why he's always in late close games like vs USC and UCLA instead of guys like Mathurin. Plus he consistently hits his FTs. His stroke is good and I think he could be a very good catch and shoot shooter but since Kerr can't really dribble drive and kick (and no one else can), he always has to shoot in motion, side step etc.

After a wonderful weekend seeing both LA games at McKale- I wanted to leave my basic takeaway

I've been going to games at McKale since 1992 and I can tell you- our fans are very smart (not talking about the zoo) Every year there seems to always be a noticeable fan favorite.... and quite often its not the most talented player on the team. It's always the guy who seems to give a shit the most. I remember going to games in like '94 with D Stoudamire and K. Reeves on the team... but it was Reggie Geary who the crowd went nuts for. And loved, loved, loved.

Dalen Terry is that guy right now. He doesn't have as many highlights as Benn, C-Lo, AT and Kerr... but he is the fans guy. When he got hit in the face right at the beginning of the game and was taken to the locker room.. all of the pre-game excitement suddenly vanished. But when he came back in the game many minutes later... the place went nuts and the fans were back in the game. The crowd is very aware of all of his "glue-guy" work and constantly lets him know they appreciate him.

Which leads me to my 2nd observation... also about Dalen Terry. In both these games I witnessed an Alpha dog emerge from him.... but this only seemed to happen when Benn was not it the game. i think Terry differs much of the game when Benn is out there but without Benn out there.... Terry really seems to come alive. If Benn does go pro after this year... look out for Dalen Terry in the future...

RawleArenas wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 5:52 pm Larsson has been a bit of a disappointment so far. When I looked at tape of him, I saw a mashup of Luke Kennard and Casey Jacobsen, two phenomenal players. He's better than what he has shown us so far. If he puts in the work, he can become a formidable player.

I actually think the Pelle is a better overall player than I thought he would be. Figured he was just a 3 point shooter. But he is a lot quicker than he looks, has good hops, a good solid defender, and his 3 point shooting will return.

Like Lute said, it's not who starts but who is out there in crunch time.

And he can make a frickin' FT. He was 5-5, and two of them during the UA's final run.

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:03 pm After a wonderful weekend seeing both LA games at McKale- I wanted to leave my basic takeaway

I've been going to games at McKale since 1992 and I can tell you- our fans are very smart (not talking about the zoo) Every year there seems to always be a noticeable fan favorite.... and quite often its not the most talented player on the team. It's always the guy who seems to give a shit the most. I remember going to games in like '94 with D Stoudamire and K. Reeves on the team... but it was Reggie Geary who the crowd went nuts for. And loved, loved, loved.

Dalen Terry is that guy right now. He doesn't have as many highlights as Benn, C-Lo, AT and Kerr... but he is the fans guy. When he got hit in the face right at the beginning of the game and was taken to the locker room.. all of the pre-game excitement suddenly vanished. But when he came back in the game many minutes later... the place went nuts and the fans were back in the game. The crowd is very aware of all of his "glue-guy" work and constantly lets him know they appreciate him.

Which leads me to my 2nd observation... also about Dalen Terry. In both these games I witnessed an Alpha dog emerge from him.... but this only seemed to happen when Benn was not it the game. i think Terry differs much of the game when Benn is out there but without Benn out there.... Terry really seems to come alive. If Benn does go pro after this year... look out for Dalen Terry in the future...

Excellent observation Ari. He has incredible in-game instincts and his level of play seems to rise in the most critical situations.

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:03 pm After a wonderful weekend seeing both LA games at McKale- I wanted to leave my basic takeaway

I've been going to games at McKale since 1992 and I can tell you- our fans are very smart (not talking about the zoo) Every year there seems to always be a noticeable fan favorite.... and quite often its not the most talented player on the team. It's always the guy who seems to give a shit the most. I remember going to games in like '94 with D Stoudamire and K. Reeves on the team... but it was Reggie Geary who the crowd went nuts for. And loved, loved, loved.

Dalen Terry is that guy right now. He doesn't have as many highlights as Benn, C-Lo, AT and Kerr... but he is the fans guy. When he got hit in the face right at the beginning of the game and was taken to the locker room.. all of the pre-game excitement suddenly vanished. But when he came back in the game many minutes later... the place went nuts and the fans were back in the game. The crowd is very aware of all of his "glue-guy" work and constantly lets him know they appreciate him.

Which leads me to my 2nd observation... also about Dalen Terry. In both these games I witnessed an Alpha dog emerge from him.... but this only seemed to happen when Benn was not it the game. i think Terry differs much of the game when Benn is out there but without Benn out there.... Terry really seems to come alive. If Benn does go pro after this year... look out for Dalen Terry in the future...

I agree, we've lacked players not just buying into their roles but embracing them... this season I've seen players grow into and expand their role. We have not had such a well-rounded team in quite some time... we've had more talented teams but not complete teams with key bench presence.

Now looking at the rest of the regular Pac-12 schedule... real good change we go undefeated!!

Frankly I think with the odd scheduling that is occurring this year we will lose two more games. There is statistical evidence (small sample size) that the third road game in a row is likely to be lost. I think that is true. This next week will be difficult even though one of the road games is 80 miles away. We have one day to prepare for a team that is riding a high after upsetting one of the best teams in the conference. They are our rival even though that has not helped them in the past.

Merkin wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:10 pm

RawleArenas wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 5:52 pm Larsson has been a bit of a disappointment so far. When I looked at tape of him, I saw a mashup of Luke Kennard and Casey Jacobsen, two phenomenal players. He's better than what he has shown us so far. If he puts in the work, he can become a formidable player.

I actually think the Pelle is a better overall player than I thought he would be. Figured he was just a 3 point shooter. But he is a lot quicker than he looks, has good hops, a good solid defender, and his 3 point shooting will return.

Like Lute said, it's not who starts but who is out there in crunch time.

And he can make a frickin' FT. He was 5-5, and two of them during the UA's final run.

Larsson is a huge get and the payoff will be seen down the road, even past this season.

One of the key things right now is there is no real drop off from the 3 players coming off the bench.

Like CTL says we almost have 8 starters.

the emergence of the defensive closing lineup is a thing of beauty - essentially two seven footers have developed the ability to guard any position on the floor along with Terry.

the other two spots are whoever is bringing the best effort, physicality, and hands.

both games this weekend Lloyd closed with that personnel - suffocating UCLA & USC.

TheCat wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:41 am Frankly I think with the odd scheduling that is occurring this year we will lose two more games. There is statistical evidence (small sample size) that the third road game in a row is likely to be lost. I think that is true. This next week will be difficult even though one of the road games is 80 miles away. We have one day to prepare for a team that is riding a high after upsetting one of the best teams in the conference. They are our rival even though that has not helped them in the past.

Well ASsU has even less time to prepare for us. And yesterday, only two of our players were on the floor for 30 minutes or more. ASsU had 5 players with 40 minutes or more, and a couple with closer to 50 minutes. I like our legs coming down the stretch in the second half.

BBQ wildcat wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:46 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:41 am Frankly I think with the odd scheduling that is occurring this year we will lose two more games. There is statistical evidence (small sample size) that the third road game in a row is likely to be lost. I think that is true. This next week will be difficult even though one of the road games is 80 miles away. We have one day to prepare for a team that is riding a high after upsetting one of the best teams in the conference. They are our rival even though that has not helped them in the past.

Well ASsU has even less time to prepare for us. And yesterday, only two of our players were on the floor for 30 minutes or more. ASsU had 5 players with 40 minutes or more, and a couple with closer to 50 minutes. I like our legs coming down the stretch in the second half.

I feel like Lloyd has done a really good job of managing minutes even with a shortened bench.

Both teams will be on tired legs. No idea what to expect

Not a chance this game is decided by anywhere near 16 points.

Also, we’re up to #2 in NET. Still very much in the mix for a #1, and barring a total tailspin, a 2 or 3 feels like nearly a lock after this past week.

When we did so much driving between San Antonio to Arizona on I-10 it was always so good to see that sign: Welcome to Arizona. You're in Wildcat Country.

We certainly kicked some LA and Oregon ass.

UCLA losing to ASU probably dropped us in some people's eyes.

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 1:54 pm Both teams will be on tired legs. No idea what to expect

No idea? Ya think this is a pick-em?

You expect a win, Ari. Act like you’ve been to Tempe before.

Oh and to quote 97. “Fuck ASU”

f*ck ASU

Also, the last 6 mins of that usc game, Koloko was an alpha. He dominated. If you have a chance l, rewatch the game from when Az was down 6 with about 6 mins to go and it was the Dalen/Christian show.

Fun to see.

I expect Hurley to be a whiny ass punk and get a T after we pull away in the second half.

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 8:56 pm I expect Hurley to be a whiny ass punk and get a T after we pull away in the second half.

I'll be very disappointed if this doesn't happen. In case he gets canned, he should make his last rivalry game with us end in a bang.

Not that the AP poll matters all that much, but did anyone have two better wins since the last poll came out? If we’re not #3 tomorrow, I’ll be a little surprised.

I think we end up as #4 tomorrow...

As far as ASU, I think Lloyd expects it to be a "dog fight" and he's right ASU has been much closer in tough games than their record reveals...but I like our chances a LOT...here's why:

UCLA...not that ASU beat them , but that WE beat them...we beat them on OUR terms...the first time we played them it was a new experience and in many ways they schooled our guys...and right after that we had to play ASU...but Lloyd had the team ready the second UCLA game...our guys learn and adjust and honestly we controlled the entire game with only a few lapses...the ASU game following the first UCLA meetup our main scorers were still not up to par...tubelis only played 21 minutes in that game and scored 6 points...it was another breakout game for Ballo who scored more than Krissa and Terry combined and matched Mathurins score...

Tubelis scored 14 against UCLA, and 18 against USC so his scoring which was thin in the first meet up is getting back up to his regular numbers versus only 6 points in the first meetup with the scummys.

Frankly I think Kerr is the main one who plays better at home, but I noticed that Lloyd is no longer afraid to sit him and insert Kier when the offense is stagnant or Kerr is turning over the ball...but speaking of Krissa he had 6 points against ASU...he had 13 the 2nd UCLA and 16 against USC on Saturday and frankly USC plays much harder defense than ASU...

So between Tubelis getting back to closer to 100%, Terry starting to get his (he only had 4 the first time) and Krissa back to hitting a few more threes I think a 16 point spread is about right.

That first game at home they kinda threw a really good punch at us...emotionally we were not ready...THAT won't happen tomorrow no matter how big the crowd is.>>

On average Matherun actually plays better on the road, his big numbers games have all come away from home...28/30/29/etc...he had 14 against ASU last time...I expect his numbers to be in the mid-twenties by the end of Monday nites game...between him and Tubelis it might even be a smack down.

And as far as "emotional games"???? The one AFTER UCLA was our most emotional of the season...which was ASU...ASU is the one in the "emotional danger seat" because they JUST won a game against a ranked team again...remember this is a team that scored ONLY 29 points against WASHINGTON STATE...yes they've had some "decent losses" but it Bobby Fucking Hurley...his teams might accidentally beat a good team and then turn around and lose to San Francisco Dons (which they did after beating Oregon by 2)...they have a history of crashing after a high...just check their record.

Olsondogg wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 8:44 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 1:54 pm Both teams will be on tired legs. No idea what to expect

No idea? Ya think this is a pick-em?

You expect a win, Ari. Act like you’ve been to Tempe before.

Oh and to quote 97. “Fuck ASU”

To clarify- I was referencing the post before mine saying line had been set at Arizona favored +16.

I fully expect AZ win (I don't think I've ever expected us to lose vs ASU) I just don't know if we win by 20 or if it ends up being an ugly- tired legs bad shooting kind of night

97cats wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:32 pm the emergence of the defensive closing lineup is a thing of beauty - essentially two seven footers have developed the ability to guard any position on the floor along with Terry.

the other two spots are whoever is bringing the best effort, physicality, and hands.

both games this weekend Lloyd closed with that personnel - suffocating UCLA & USC.

One of the interesting parts of this recent stretch is the sharp dropoff of the pace. We went from 77 possessions to just a tick over 70 in the last 3 games, which is almost identical to where we were with Miller.

Similarly, points per possession have fallen from 1.119 to 1.017 in our last 3 (and it would be lower if the road game at UCLA was included). So what's sustaining us?

Defensive efficiency is .850 points per possession and .875 in the last 3. That's why we're winning. We've showed we can grind out a slow, less efficent offensive game and still get the W.

Spiff is correct and I’ve stated before that the most impressive thing about this team is how good defensively they are. The switching on D must make Miller very happy to watch and I’m sure Lloyd underestimated how solid the D would be in his 1st year.

For the most part anyone in a top program can get a bucket, but to get 5-7 players buy in on defense is something special.

Olsondogg wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:47 am
For the most part anyone in a top program can get a bucket, but to get 5-7 players buy in on defense is something special.

Absolutely, and you can tell that when that group of 5-7 actually experiences how dominant they can become when they're all dialed in on defense, it can elevate a team from good to championship contender. It definitely happened with some of Lute's teams.

Defensive domination is a game changer when you can get it. Baylor last year is an example.

#4 in new poll

#12 UCLA
#13 Illinois
#19 Tennessee
#21 USC

Wyoming #26, just short

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:02 am #4 in new poll

#12 UCLA
#13 Illinois
#19 Tennessee
#21 USC

Wyoming #26, just short

Purdue ahead of us is kind of silly, imo. Let's see how they do vs. Illinois tomorrow.

NET is the important ranking, and we're ahead of every team not named Gonzaga or Houston.

We'll either be a 1 seed outside the West region or a 2/3 in the West, provided we avoid any bad losses the rest of the way.

Net #3
KenPom #2
Sag #2
T-Rank #5
Massey Composite #2
ESPN BPI #5

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:21 am We'll either be a 1 seed outside the West region or a 2/3 in the West, provided we avoid any bad losses the rest of the way.

i dont think so - if things continue to fall as they have all season, i believe Arizona will be slotted #1 seed in the East or South Region with Duke opposite as the #2

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:17 am

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:02 am #4 in new poll

#12 UCLA
#13 Illinois
#19 Tennessee
#21 USC

Wyoming #26, just short

Purdue ahead of us is kind of silly, imo. Let's see how they do vs. Illinois tomorrow.

NET is the important ranking, and we're ahead of every team not named Gonzaga or Houston.

They use everything not just NET

We are getting close to the point NCAA comes out with an official top 16 for seating correct?

97cats wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:31 am

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:21 am We'll either be a 1 seed outside the West region or a 2/3 in the West, provided we avoid any bad losses the rest of the way.

i dont think so - if things continue to fall as they have all season, i believe Arizona will be slotted #1 seed in the East or South Region with Duke opposite as the #2

Not seeing how what you wrote differs from what I said, unless you're disagreeing that it's possible we'll end up a 2/3 in the West.

Auburn and Gonzaga are just about locks for #1 seeds. The other two #1s will be drawn from this group: AZ, Kentucky, Purdue, Houston, Duke, and Kansas. I can't see anyone else sneaking up to the 1 line (maybe Baylor gets back in the mix). If we run the table the rest of the way, plus a Pac tourney title, then yes, we'll absolutely be a #1.

Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:36 am We are getting close to the point NCAA comes out with an official top 16 for seating correct?

Mid February iirc from past years

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:56 am

Olsondogg wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:47 am
For the most part anyone in a top program can get a bucket, but to get 5-7 players buy in on defense is something special.

Absolutely, and you can tell that when that group of 5-7 actually experiences how dominant they can become when they're all dialed in on defense, it can elevate a team from good to championship contender. It definitely happened with some of Lute's teams.

Defensive domination is a game changer when you can get it. Baylor last year is an example.

Last year was frustrating because we had a bunch of guys who had the tools to be very good on D but were figuring it out. One of the more underrated parts of D is all 5 guys being locked in every possession. You have a single guy tune out for a play and a good team will exploit it.

Especially with how much Covid changed things last year...it was just frustrating feeling we were on the cusp of good D and just never got there. Well, we got there this year. Guys like Koloko, Benn and Terry are all much closer to what their physical potential would suggest.

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:38 am

Alieberman wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:36 am We are getting close to the point NCAA comes out with an official top 16 for seating correct?

Mid February iirc from past years

Yes... so we are very close to finding out exactly where we stand. And I 100% agree with '97Cats... I think we are staring down a 1/2 matchup with Duke right now with us fighting with them for that 4th #1 seed.

Not a chance. CBS and the media will not pass up a Gonzaga/Arizona matchup. We will be a two in the West with the Zags as a #1. Master vs. student will be the headline. Also the tourney tries to keep protected seeds close to home and will even change seeding to do that.
It would be epic to give coach K his final loss just like we gave Dean Smith.

ok, BC -

i believe Arizona will be the #1 seed in the East or South Region opposite Duke as the #2 seed in that same region - so to recap, again, if things stay true to form as they have all season, i dont think Arizona will be the #2 seed in the west, i think they will be a #1 seed elsewhere.

so we both agree, AZ wont be the #1 seed out west, thats Gonzaga barring a weird meltdown.

so, its my opinion, whatever region the committee slots Duke (south or east) i believe the Blue Devils will be the #2 seed with Arizona as the corresponding #1 seed in whatever region that turns out to be, and in my opinion, i think that will be the east or south regions.

OF NOTE: unless Arizona loses 4 more games they will not be a three seed - please take five mins and look at the loses of those teams in the top 30, all could rise to as high as a #3 seed with a huge run to end the year, and almost all of them have 4+ loses.

not zero chance AZ is a #3 seed, but pretty close to zero chance

TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:03 am Not a chance. CBS and the media will not pass up a Gonzaga/Arizona matchup.

they want that in the final four

97cats wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:04 am

TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:03 am Not a chance. CBS and the media will not pass up a Gonzaga/Arizona matchup.

they want that in the National Regional Semifinal - final four

I continue to be confounded by whatever Fox Sports 1 is and how anyone has access to such a thing. I could sooner find a subscription to ESPN Canada. I'm no fan of PAC-12 network but at least it exists in my universe. I pray Fischclamps can do us all a solid tonight.