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I agree with you Odogg, but we don't need to be great. As I know you know, we just need to be good enough to force defenses to respect us and open up the lane for our bigs and slashers.Chicat wrote:We just did not have great shooters last year. Nick was Nick, but McConnell had an off year in comparison to his numbers at Duquesne, Rondae's shot was pretty bad, Gordon's wasn't that much better (and worse from the free throw line), and our best shooter went down with an injury halfway through the season. As you mentioned, without good shooters, teams will look inept on the offensive end. Shit, how many times did we as fans bitch and moan about us missing bunnies? It was like a tip drill out there at some points where it seemed like no matter how close our guys got to the basket, the ball simply would not go in even on layups.salim'sheadband wrote:I am responding in earnest to the OP, no sarcasm, but this isn't rocket science. As I've said before and will continue to say throughout the season, the players just need to make shots. If you actually look at our metrics when we do that compared to other teams with so-called "good" offenses there's basically no difference. We need to make about 50% of our total field goals, 37% of our 3s, and 75% of our free throws. If we can do that we will have a top-20 (aka elite) offense - as Miller has had three previous times in his ten year career. Miller couldn't "make" Gordon make shots or free throws, or TJ, or anyone else. We just didn't have good offensive players last year. Say what you will about the "scheme" but if it were that easy to get guys open for layups all the time everyone would do it, and honestly, that's the point of the motion offense anyway.
And as someone else said, if you're going off of the "eye test" I can't help you there; I don't know how to measure subjective expectations, but I will repeat the words of Coach Wooden and remind you not to confuse activity with achievement.
This year we should be improved as far as shooting. I have to think that TJ will return to his past numbers. Hopefully Bash will be healthy all year. Rondae looks improved. Pitts or Gabe should give us that outside threat. And if SJ can pick and choose his spots instead of taking heat-check threes out of the rhythm of the offense like a lot of star freshman love to do, our shooting percentage will improve and this talk about Miller's offense sucking will quickly and thankfully die down.
Olsondogg wrote:As far as offense goes, I don't see us shooting as poorly as last year, be it from the field, line or the arc. However, I don't think we will be a great shooting team from the arc.
11 assists though, and probably a few hockey assists too.Olsondogg wrote:Agreed. This team's identity will not be found beyond the arc. It is within...
Watching the game in McKale, I noticed that TJ passed up shots (again). One exhibition in, but it was addressed by him in the presser.
Thinking back to last year, did we see defensive rebounds leading to good offense? Like Rondae breaking away for the outlet pass while Gordon runs toward the bucket and York darts toward the three-point line? I seem to remember the opponent running back and TJ jogging the ball up the court while the defense gets set, TJ passing to NJ eight feet behind the arc, NJ looking toward the post and then passing it back to TJ, and then a pass to Tarc in the block, where he starts to dribble....Chicat wrote:A forced bad shot is just as good as a steal when you have a great rebounding team.
We saw both, mainly because we had good leadership at the point guard and off guard positions. Throwing 70 foot outlet passes looks great on highlight reels, but a lot of times the better play is to set up your offense and look for the high percentage shot. While fast breaks are exciting, I wouldn't say that they are always "good offense".Longhorned wrote:Thinking back to last year, did we see defensive rebounds leading to good offense? Like Rondae breaking away for the outlet pass while Gordon runs toward the bucket and York darts toward the three-point line? I seem to remember the opponent running back and TJ jogging the ball up the court while the defense gets set, TJ passing to NJ eight feet behind the arc, NJ looking toward the post and then passing it back to TJ, and then a pass to Tarc in the block, where he starts to dribble....Chicat wrote:A forced bad shot is just as good as a steal when you have a great rebounding team.
Don't get me wrong, I'm fully on board with the defense, and I actually like the offense. But yesterday Miller really did repeat what he says about forced turnovers leading to transition points.
Arizona was way over the plus 25 range going into the tournament, final rankings don't tell the whole story.Bosy Billups wrote:Not to let stats get in the way of a good story, but if I'm reading KenPom's final rankings from 2014, here they are:
1. Louisville: Adjusted O = 15, Adjusted D = 4
2. Arizona: Adjusted O = 20, Adjusted D = 1
3. Florida: Adjusted O = 18, Adjusted D = 2
4. Virginia: Adjusted O = 21, Adjusted D = 5
5. Wichita St.: Adjusted O = 8, Adjusted D = 12
6. Wisconsin: Adjusted O = 4, Adjusted D = 49
7. Tennessee: Adjusted O = 17, Adjusted D = 19
8. Connecticut: Adjusted O = 39, Adjusted D = 10
http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2014
Moreover, how about other years?
2013
Arizona: Adjusted 0 = 10, Adjusted D = 47
2012 (obviously a transition year)
Arizona: Adjusted 0 = 86, Adjusted D = 41
2011
Arizona: Adjusted 0 = 8, Adjusted D = 88
Maybe's there is some recency bias going on here, but a top 20 O in 3 of the last 4 years does not support this thread.
Discuss...
PS - please no "doesn't pass the eye test" arguments.
NYCat wrote: My only concern and what this thread is about, and that's concern for the offense in March. If UA bows out in the tournament it'll be because of offense (a slow tempo, low scoring game) guarantee it.
Actually a huge difference. The 335 isn't rich rods. The offense and defense are both Miller's.NYCat wrote:I still want Rich Rod, but want him to change the 3-3-5. Not much difference.
Nothing wrong with a man-to-man defense, instead of pressure man-to-man defense. Defense for less talented teams, uva is a great example.
Instead of a Donovan, Pitino defense which actually benefit the offense.
Only his if he holds on to it, styles change with the times. There's no longer widespread wishbone offenses in football. Miller has an offense of the 1980s, or a B1G team which is an insult. And its not like the teams are (east coast) tough like those of Gtown or others in the past - they're just not.ASUHATER! wrote: Actually a huge difference. The 335 isn't rich rods. The offense and defense are both Miller's.
I don't either, but I want the change eventually.Chicat wrote:I just really can't imagine anything changing the fact that Sean Miller runs a packline defense and a motion offense at any time in the near or far future.
Exactly. Miller is not going to sacrifice his defensive philosophies in order to churn out a more exciting and higher scoring offense.Chicat wrote:I just really can't imagine anything changing the fact that Sean Miller runs a packline defense and a motion offense at any time in the near or far future.
Pretty sure he'd feel the same. Feels much better to lose 90-89 (2005) and 78-75 (2003).salim'sheadband wrote:So we should change our #1 defense to help our offense? Got it.
Besides that, you're asking us to refute something yet providing no evidence yourself that a different defense would somehow help our offense. Again, noteworthy that there is no correlation between tempo or average possession length on offense and an elite or super-efficient offense. There is, however, a correlation between average possession length on defense and elite defensive efficiency. Not to mention you think we should change our offensive system notwithstanding three elite offenses in the last ten years. Forgive me if I tell you what you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense. How would you feel about our offense if Horne's 3 goes in and Nick doesn't get called for the charge?
It's not rocket science bruh. We gotta make shots.
This is true, just look at Duke in 2010 or Wisconsin last year. They both had elite offenses though, therefore they could play a slow tempo and still be efficient. The 2011 team got to the doorstep of a FF because of its offense, the defense was god awful by comparison. Miller's offense has been proven to be effective in the past, but I think some (including myself) are wondering whether Gottlieb may be on to something. This is why TJ and York are the keys to the season, if they can shoot 40% from 3 or greater we will be in great shape and it won't matter if our defense does limit our offensive potential.salim'sheadband wrote:So we should change our #1 defense to help our offense? Got it.
Besides that, you're asking us to refute something yet providing no evidence yourself that a different defense would somehow help our offense. Again, noteworthy that there is no correlation between tempo or average possession length on offense and an elite or super-efficient offense. There is, however, a correlation between average possession length on defense and elite defensive efficiency. Not to mention you think we should change our offensive system notwithstanding three elite offenses in the last ten years. Forgive me if I tell you what you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense. How would you feel about our offense if Horne's 3 goes in and Nick doesn't get called for the charge?
It's not rocket science bruh. We gotta make shots.
salim'sheadband wrote:So we should change our #1 defense to help our offense? Got it.
Besides that, you're asking us to refute something yet providing no evidence yourself that a different defense would somehow help our offense. Again, noteworthy that there is no correlation between tempo or average possession length on offense and an elite or super-efficient offense. There is, however, a correlation between average possession length on defense and elite defensive efficiency. Not to mention you think we should change our offensive system notwithstanding three elite offenses in the last ten years. Forgive me if I tell you what you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense. How would you feel about our offense if Horne's 3 goes in and Nick doesn't get called for the charge?
It's not rocket science bruh. We gotta make shots.
Wisconsin was 54-54 - I don't care what anyone says, if you score in the 50s by the end regulation the offense isn't good. Ohio St, the defense wasn't as good which opened up the offense more, also Ross hit an OUTSIDE shot to win. '11 vs UConn the defense was atrocious but with a great offense and DWill they where a missed shot from final four. And both those last shots were horrible plays, I mean the Nick running left fade shot?salim'sheadband wrote:Also, there is no correlation between a high forced turnover percentage and an elite offense, so the whole "we need to force turnovers to turn into offense" doesn't really hold water. You're asserting things without data to support what you're asserting. If you show me some data backing up what you're saying I (and other people disagreeing with you) might feel differently.
I'll say it for the 10th time, this thread isn't about the exhibition game but the offense in tournament games when the games actually matter.illcat wrote:Has the starting 5 been set in stone? First game an exhibition game at that and the Cats didn't win by 40 points and some of you are ready to start jumping out of the windows.
I don't know that I agree with that. I feel like we lost because Zeus couldn't guard Kaminsky and neither could anyone else on our team.NYCat wrote:
The offense choked on the elite eight plain and simple,they lost because the offense couldn't score in the second half.
Miller is proving that with elite athletes in his packline system, he can trot out an elite defense every year. Whats wrong with that? The advanced stats and analytic guys are not going to grade out our players very well (See Gordon, Johnson, ect. via Kevin Pelton), but Miller's system works.NYCat wrote:I still want Rich Rod, but want him to change the 3-3-5. Not much difference.
Nothing wrong with a man-to-man defense, instead of pressure man-to-man defense. Packline defense is for less talented teams, uva & Bennett is a great example.
Instead of a Donovan, Pitino defense which actually benefit the offense.
So the exhibition thread will be in March?NYCat wrote:I'll say it for the 10th time, this thread isn't about the exhibition game but the offense in tournament games when the games actually matter.illcat wrote:Has the starting 5 been set in stone? First game an exhibition game at that and the Cats didn't win by 40 points and some of you are ready to start jumping out of the windows.
Says it all."I don't care what anyone says."
Look at the box score, first half the offense was rolling, 6-8 comfortable lead. The game wasn't as slow. Then 2nd half happens, Nick was the only one scoring but still struggling at 6/16 from the field. Rhj a bucket or 3, Tj a FT or two, Gordon being a statue and waiting to get back on defense because he couldn't score, Zeus not scoring and putting the ball on the floor led to automatic strips, York being streaky. By now the game was slow and the offense was stagnant, no flow no rhythm, a couple 2-3+ minutes without any score.UAGreg wrote: I don't know that I agree with that. I feel like we lost because Zeus couldn't guard Kaminsky and neither could anyone else on our team.
Check out the redshirt and scrub players on the Gumbies. Especially the 1st and 5th players.gumby wrote: Check out the numbers of some of our all-time greats as underclassmen. Not so great. We remember junior and senior Damon Stoudamire, not the underclassman who couldn't beat out Matt Othick. Michael Dickerson didn't start until he was a junior. Joe McLean did. Ditto, Jud B. and some others. We remember the senior season of Khalid Reeves, but if he had departed after his junior year, he would be an obscure guard who experienced two embarrassing first-round exits.
Its not needed, its made for inferior athletes. Great for the regular season, but for the post season? I'm not convinced. The defense will prevent early outings, but will get Wisconsin'd again.TucsonClip wrote: Miller is proving that with elite athletes in his packline system, he can trot out an elite defense every year. Whats wrong with that? The advanced stats and analytic guys are not going to grade out our players very well (See Gordon, Johnson, ect. via Kevin Pelton), but Miller's system works.
The offense wasn't good enough to save Arizona from an overtime loss against a 2-seed in the Elite Eight. But then again, Ashley.NYCat wrote: Wisconsin was 54-54 - I don't care what anyone says, if you score in the 50s by the end regulation the offense isn't good.
Arizona needs a perimeter shooting clip that matches expectations, particularly from Ashley, TJ, and York. But they no more need to make outside shots for spacing than they need to make outside shots to break a zone. They need to shoot 40% from the perimeter (which is realistic), get to the rim, and draw fouls.NYCat wrote:Packline gurantees slow tempo games. Which is effective when you have shooters, which Arizona does not have. Either get better shooters who can shoot in half court or loosen up on the defense to open up the offense.
Why is it so great for the regular season and so terrible for the postseason? Is there some system out there that you think Miller should switch to that is infallible no matter what month it is? Apologies if you've already covered this.NYCat wrote:Its not needed, its made for inferior athletes. Great for the regular season, but for the post season? I'm not convinced. The defense will prevent early outings, but will get Wisconsin'd again.TucsonClip wrote: Miller is proving that with elite athletes in his packline system, he can trot out an elite defense every year. Whats wrong with that? The advanced stats and analytic guys are not going to grade out our players very well (See Gordon, Johnson, ect. via Kevin Pelton), but Miller's system works.
What does this mean? The defense got Wisconsin'd? I thought the defense held Wisconsin to 59 points in overtime.NYCat wrote:Its not needed, its made for inferior athletes. Great for the regular season, but for the post season? I'm not convinced. The defense will prevent early outings, but will get Wisconsin'd again.TucsonClip wrote: Miller is proving that with elite athletes in his packline system, he can trot out an elite defense every year. Whats wrong with that? The advanced stats and analytic guys are not going to grade out our players very well (See Gordon, Johnson, ect. via Kevin Pelton), but Miller's system works.
Just be honest dude.NYCat wrote:I don't like what we do on offense and I don't care what 1) the data supports, 2) the evidence shows, or 3) what any of you say.
Well we lost 78 to 86 to Oklahoma in 1988, but at least we scored more than 60.azcat49 wrote:Well Lute had a 1 or 2 seed play Bennett at Wisky and we got beat in the second round and h e was using the pack line to beat an uptempo good metric offense that year.
Like I said, I like Miller in March, the rest is window dressing
Would Miller's packline have beat Billy Tubbs's boys that night? No, but Kerr shooting a little more like Kerr would have. Which brings us back to The Importance of Shooting Well Enough by I. Chuckem Freely.salim'sheadband wrote:Well we lost 78 to 86 to Oklahoma in 1988, but at least we scored more than 60.azcat49 wrote:Well Lute had a 1 or 2 seed play Bennett at Wisky and we got beat in the second round and h e was using the pack line to beat an uptempo good metric offense that year.
Like I said, I like Miller in March, the rest is window dressing
His brother I.P. is a much more compelling historical character.Longhorned wrote:Would Miller's packline have beat Billy Tubbs's boys that night? No, but Kerr shooting a little more like Kerr would have. Which brings us back to The Importance of Shooting Well Enough by I. Chuckem Freely.salim'sheadband wrote:Well we lost 78 to 86 to Oklahoma in 1988, but at least we scored more than 60.azcat49 wrote:Well Lute had a 1 or 2 seed play Bennett at Wisky and we got beat in the second round and h e was using the pack line to beat an uptempo good metric offense that year.
Like I said, I like Miller in March, the rest is window dressing
The only way that someone could bump this thread ironically is if we go undefeated up to and all the way through the tourney. 40-0. Because you've centered this argument surrounding literally a couple of games that Arizona lost recently.NYCat wrote:PS: I bet someone will bump this thread ironically during the season, I won't because its not about one game, one exhibition game or the regular season that means nothing, this thread isn't about that. Its about the games in the tournament.
The Championship game was UCONN 60-UK 54. So whats your point with a score around the 50-60? To me it would win you a title! With those great UCONN guards they scored 6 more points then AZ did. With a healty BASH we win that game and you know it NYCAT.NYCat wrote:salim'sheadband wrote:So we should change our #1 defense to help our offense? Got it.
Besides that, you're asking us to refute something yet providing no evidence yourself that a different defense would somehow help our offense. Again, noteworthy that there is no correlation between tempo or average possession length on offense and an elite or super-efficient offense. There is, however, a correlation between average possession length on defense and elite defensive efficiency. Not to mention you think we should change our offensive system notwithstanding three elite offenses in the last ten years. Forgive me if I tell you what you're saying doesn't make a lot of sense. How would you feel about our offense if Horne's 3 goes in and Nick doesn't get called for the charge?
It's not rocket science bruh. We gotta make shots.Wisconsin was 54-54 - I don't care what anyone says, if you score in the 50s by the end regulation the offense isn't good.salim'sheadband wrote:Also, there is no correlation between a high forced turnover percentage and an elite offense, so the whole "we need to force turnovers to turn into offense" doesn't really hold water. You're asserting things without data to support what you're asserting. If you show me some data backing up what you're saying I (and other people disagreeing with you) might feel differently.
Preach AZCAT I just caught a holyghost up this forum!!!azcat49 wrote:Well Lute had a 1 or 2 seed play Bennett at Wisky and we got beat in the second round and h e was using the pack line to beat an uptempo good metric offense that year.
Like I said, I like Miller in March, the rest is window dressing
Exactly these are all problems with not making a shot and not the defense brobeans!NYCat wrote:Look at the box score, first half the offense was rolling, 6-8 comfortable lead. The game wasn't as slow. Then 2nd half happens, Nick was the only one scoring but still struggling at 6/16 from the field. Rhj a bucket or 3, Tj a FT or two, Gordon being a statue and waiting to get back on defense because he couldn't score, Zeus not scoring and putting the ball on the floor led to automatic strips, York being streaky. By now the game was slow and the offense was stagnant, no flow no rhythm, a couple 2-3+ minutes without any score.UAGreg wrote: I don't know that I agree with that. I feel like we lost because Zeus couldn't guard Kaminsky and neither could anyone else on our team.
All that led to Kaminsky to take advantage and score easily, but the offensive struggles led to that. Wouldn't be as close if the offense showed up.
What does it matter if its not needed? Miller is proving that he can field an elite defense each year with his system and his prowess on the recruiting trail. Why do we need to trap, play aggressive and jump passing lanes to speed up the tempo to score more when Miller's system is working?NYCat wrote:Its not needed, its made for inferior athletes. Great for the regular season, but for the post season? I'm not convinced. The defense will prevent early outings, but will get Wisconsin'd again.TucsonClip wrote: Miller is proving that with elite athletes in his packline system, he can trot out an elite defense every year. Whats wrong with that? The advanced stats and analytic guys are not going to grade out our players very well (See Gordon, Johnson, ect. via Kevin Pelton), but Miller's system works.