Bear Down Wildcats

Main Event wrote:

It's a pretty amazing draft at the top if Lauri is actually the 9th best player in the draft.

Some interesting things in that draft express rankings:

5(!) PG are rated about Lauri who is at #9.

Lauri is the first big man (PF or C) in ranking.

The PG class is nuts. Fultz, Ball and Smith would ordinarily be a standout prospect, the kind of guy who comes along every 3 years or so, and they're all in the same class. I'm not as high on Fox, but in normal classes, it would not be odd for him to be the top rated PG.

I think Lauri may jump Monk. Monk isn't actually a PG at all. He's a small SG with great athleticism and stroke. Personally, I would draft Lauri over him. Haven't seen enough of Isaac to know there. Jackson over Lauri is a matter of preference. Jackson is the freak athlete, Lauri is the freak skill guy.

Thing is, there could be a couple of pick swaps in that lottery and who knows how the balls are gonna pop up anyhow. Playing Danny Ainge in my head (and I could be way off), but say Philly gets picks 6 and 11 and Boston gets pick 2 and misses out on Fultz. We'll pretend they intend to sign Isaiah Thomas to a long-term contract extension, so it makes no sense to bring in Ball or Smith, so they swap pick 2 to Philly for picks 6 and 11. Pick 6 rolls around: Fultz, Ball, Smith, Jackson and Monk are off the board. Ainge obviously doesnt spring for Fox when he has Thomas and two good combo guards, does he pass on Tatum when he has a young Jaylen Brown and Crowder (both on the cheap) and pick Lauri at 6? Outside of Horford, their 4/5 situation is Amir Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, Zeller and Mickey. Then they still have the 11th pick to address other needs with plenty of talent still on the board. Obviously this is my fantasy if we dont get Fultz.

I agree. This class is stacked from a PG perspective. Ball, Fultz, and Smith Jr. are all studs. Fox and Monk are intriguing. Without a great shot, I'm not sure how well Fox will integrate into the NBA right off the bat (see, Kris Dunn). That isn't to say that he won't have an NBA future, just that it might take him longer than the other PG's to find his place. Monk's size is a definite talking point among NBA scouts and could very well play a part in where he is drafted. I do like his upside, however. Isaac is a true stud. His size and skill are somewhat similar to Lauri, but he is able to play even more from the wing. I think both Isaac and Lauri (as well as Josh Jackson) should be drafted in the 4-8 range, unless any of them significantly elevates their draft stock throughout the rest of the season.

I see Malik Monk as a Monta Ellis type of dude. Explosive scorer.

At the end of this article: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... lonzo-ball" target="_blank, there is a comment that suggests that he's coming back next year.

"Thank you nba scouts. Markkanens' family has said, it's a 2 year plan at Arizona unless he is guarantied a top 3 pick. Next year he will be at his natural position pf, with Ayton at the 5 and Ira Lee at the 3. OMG!!!"

Obviously, it's a random comment, but it would be awesome if true, so can anyone tell me if they've heard anything like that?

He gone

qwertyus wrote:At the end of this article: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... lonzo-ball" target="_blank, there is a comment that suggests that he's coming back next year.

"Thank you nba scouts. Markkanens' family has said, it's a 2 year plan at Arizona unless he is guarantied a top 3 pick. Next year he will be at his natural position pf, with Ayton at the 5 and Ira Lee at the 3. OMG!!!"

Obviously, it's a random comment, but it would be awesome if true, so can anyone tell me if they've heard anything like that?

The 2 year plan is probably from an interview with his folks that is posted somewhere earlier in the thread.

If it is from that article, it was not linked to top three. It was just a comment from his family that they had made that plan with Lauri. I did not get super excited because it seemed clear that the plan was from prior to the dramatic upswing in Lauri's draft stock.

I tend to pooh pooh the comment because there is no guaranteed top 3 pick for Lauri, almost ever. If Lauri returns, next year he has to compete with Ayton, Duval, Porter, etc.

Olsondogg wrote:He gone

This too.

Olsondogg wrote:He gone

I would be. No reason to stick around and give people the opportunity to poke holes in my game.

Chicat wrote:

Olsondogg wrote:He gone

I would be. No reason to stick around and give people the opportunity to poke holes in my game.

Same here, as "the rule" generally goes, if you are a lottery pick you should go.

That's up there with "I'm going to retire in Tucson."

As much as I'd love for him to stay, this is one of thee instances where I admit, he SHOULD go.

I'd stay, but I like academics and loved college. But that's me. I'd be pretty confident if I was Lauri I was going to be a top 10 pick if I did what most do and come out this year, or stay all 4 like Duncan did.

I definitely understand if he left. It's the most practical thing, as it's a race to get out of that rookie contract, but if I was Lauri, I can confidently say I'd stay. That is with the knowledge of a 34 year old though.

Maybe if we cut down nets I'd leave. He's gonna be so good in the NBA whenever he leaves though. Like a 23ppg scorer good.

PennZona20 wrote:I'd stay, but I like academics and loved college. But that's me. I'd be pretty confident if I was Lauri I was going to be a top 10 pick if I did what most do and come out this year, or stay all 4 like Duncan did.

I definitely understand if he left. It's the most practical thing, as it's a race to get out of that rookie contract, but if I was Lauri, I can confidently say I'd stay. That is with the knowledge of a 34 year old though.

Maybe if we cut down nets I'd leave. He's gonna be so good in the NBA whenever he leaves though. Like a 23ppg scorer good.

I liked college too, but I think I would also have enjoyed people giving me millions of dollars to play basketball.

The college game is just too easy for him. The dude quietly goes about his business and murders you without breaking a sweat and needing more than a handful of shots. He needs a challenge, stunting his growth staying here

Yeah while in my fantasies I think about a senior Lauri (or imagine if we had a senior Aaron Gordon and junior Stanley Johnson on the team right now...)...Lauri needs to be playing in an NBA game in about 9 months.

Not to sound like a female character in a 1980's Hollywood romantic drama, but I've never felt this way watching a player in an Arizona uniform.

He has such a thorough, calm command of the game. It's never in doubt. Best player I've ever seen in our program. He could take us very, very far.

rgdeuce wrote:The college game is just too easy for him. The dude quietly goes about his business and murders you without breaking a sweat and needing more than a handful of shots. He needs a challenge, stunting his growth staying here

Totally agree with this. Everything he does looks so effortless and I am honestly shocked every time he misses a shot

He is going to make a great pro

ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah while in my fantasies I think about a senior Lauri (or imagine if we had a senior Aaron Gordon and junior Stanley Johnson on the team right now...)...Lauri needs to be playing in an NBA game in about 9 months.

Lauri could be a solid bench player in the NBA right now. Defensively there would be some speed bumps with certain guys, but outside of that...

I am really stunned out how good he is... considering some of the freshmen we have had under Miller who arrived with more fanfare, no one compares to him. (Sorry, Aaron & Stanley - I love you guys, but...)

And to think I was bummed when TJ Leaf de-committed...

Play of the game was when LM missed a 3 pointer, and followed his shot and got the rebound.

WHO DOES THAT? You take a 3 point shot then you head back on defense.

I'm getting so nitpicky with Lauri that I considered posting something about how he only had one non 3 point fg attempt and the need to balance his game. He has definitely been rebounding better lately and that is a great sign.

Merkin wrote:

Chicat wrote:

Olsondogg wrote:He gone

I would be. No reason to stick around and give people the opportunity to poke holes in my game.

Same here, as "the rule" generally goes, if you are a lottery pick you should go.

Agreed, but Euros are cut from a different cloth. They aren't only focused on the dollars and fame like we are. You also have to remember that they don't have the same kind of camaraderie in team sports that we do in HS/College. It's more of a club system. He's never been a part of something like this. It is reasonable for him to decide after the season that a single year isn't enough..that he wants more. At least in his interviews he seems like a pretty deep chap. I'd say it's unlikely but definitely possible he returns.

^^^^^ yup. Just look at Jakob Poetl. He was a lotto (albeit late lotto) after his frosh year , came back, moved up a handful of spots (like 14 to #11 if memory serves) or at least stay in same range. Still gonna make millions, still be successful. Enjoyed a 2nd year in college.

Granted Lauri is a slightly better prospect than Poetl as he's consensus top 10 now and his peak is probably 3-5 since there will always be a HS phenomenon or two coming in w a higher ceiling, but I don't see it out of realm of possibility he comes back. I'd give it a 20% chance, but I'm an optimistic dude.

Merkin wrote:Play of the game was when LM missed a 3 pointer, and followed his shot and got the rebound.

WHO DOES THAT? You take a 3 point shot then you head back on defense.

He followed his own missed 3 another time too and nearly got that board as well. He makes so many he knows when it is off. I dont remember him doing that any other time this year.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:I'm getting so nitpicky with Lauri that I considered posting something about how he only had one non 3 point fg attempt and the need to balance his game. He has definitely been rebounding better lately and that is a great sign.

I have been thinking the same for a while. Trier mitigates this a bit, but I still like to see it. Late in the 2nd, the defender closed out on Lauri and overplayed him to Lauri's right, and Lauri immediately picked up on that, waited for the dude to plant, and then he drove left. It's there, but I agree, I want to see it more. It's hard watching a guy who is so incredibly efficient take such few shots and pick and choose his spots.

At least 4 or 5 times LM was posted up with a guy a foot shorter was guarding him. Guards never got him the ball. By the time they saw him, the WSU D recovered by switching back.

Merkin wrote:At least 4 or 5 times LM was posted up with a guy a foot shorter was guarding him. Guards never got him the ball. By the time they saw him, the WSU D recovered by switching back.

Some smart coach is going to throw a shorter/quicker guy at Lauri in the NCAA tournament and the game plan is going to be, I want Lauri to smell what you had for dinner the whole night. That happened in the Gonzaga game (partly because Lauri had to play out of position a lot of the night). Despite Lauri's total package, you can throw him off his game by doing that and making him uncomfortable. The guy is going to be in his bread basket on Lauri's gather, he is going to have the foot speed to recover when Lauri goes around him, but the whole idea is to immediately get him to give the ball to someone else when he is outside the arc. You combat that doing what you said and Lauri pivots and faces up. If he gets in your bread basket, you put it on the floor, and he doesnt have enough time to recover and you better have another big underneath. If he plays off, easy bucket over the top of him. Only other option would be to double, and that is fine as well, we got a ton of other weapons and one of them is going to be wide open.

rgdeuce wrote:

Merkin wrote:Play of the game was when LM missed a 3 pointer, and followed his shot and got the rebound.

WHO DOES THAT? You take a 3 point shot then you head back on defense.

He followed his own missed 3 another time too and nearly got that board as well. He makes so many he knows when it is off. I dont remember him doing that any other time this year.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:I'm getting so nitpicky with Lauri that I considered posting something about how he only had one non 3 point fg attempt and the need to balance his game. He has definitely been rebounding better lately and that is a great sign.

I have been thinking the same for a while. Trier mitigates this a bit, but I still like to see it. Late in the 2nd, the defender closed out on Lauri and overplayed him to Lauri's right, and Lauri immediately picked up on that, waited for the dude to plant, and then he drove left. It's there, but I agree, I want to see it more. It's hard watching a guy who is so incredibly efficient take such few shots and pick and choose his spots.

Lauri does a great job of letting the game come to him, seeing what the D gives him and then taking advantage of it. I just think he's ready for the next step, where he seizes the game and makes more opportunities. He can give us 25 every night, and he is ready to become that dominant guy, IMO.

He's such a good shooter that any time a defender has to close out on him, he should either have the J or an up fake and midrange jumper off the bounce. The D has to attack him because if you give any airspace, he'll just stroke one in your face.

I don't know how Zo affects that, but Lauri has such an insanely high ceiling, I w9uld like to see him push for that next step. He seems very team first, but it is best for us if he develops a little bit of Kobe attitude that he can deploy as needed.

rgdeuce wrote:

Merkin wrote:At least 4 or 5 times LM was posted up with a guy a foot shorter was guarding him. Guards never got him the ball. By the time they saw him, the WSU D recovered by switching back.

Some smart coach is going to throw a shorter/quicker guy at Lauri in the NCAA tournament and the game plan is going to be, I want Lauri to smell what you had for dinner the whole night. That happened in the Gonzaga game (partly because Lauri had to play out of position a lot of the night). Despite Lauri's total package, you can throw him off his game by doing that and making him uncomfortable. The guy is going to be in his bread basket on Lauri's gather, he is going to have the foot speed to recover when Lauri goes around him, but the whole idea is to immediately get him to give the ball to someone else when he is outside the arc. You combat that doing what you said and Lauri pivots and faces up. If he gets in your bread basket, you put it on the floor, and he doesnt have enough time to recover and you better have another big underneath. If he plays off, easy bucket over the top of him. Only other option would be to double, and that is fine as well, we got a ton of other weapons and one of them is going to be wide open.

Good response tactics.

Also: clear out the interior and let our slashing wings go to work. Also: pass to Dusan and let him go to work without a double team.

Playing tight on a PF on the perimeter is a dangerous game.

Good teams couldn't even game plan for Frank Kaminsky. A big who stretches the floor will beat you. You have to win the game defending the other four players, and if you can't, your offense won't be enough if Arizona defends. There are some players in basketball who there are no answers for.

Merkin wrote:

Although the article hedged, thought it was interesting that they predicted Kobi in the first round. I figured he was destined for at least two in college, but maybe I am selling KS short.

Lauri absolutely deserves that. I don't think it's out of line to talk about All American honors for him.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Lauri absolutely deserves that. I don't think it's out of line to talk about All American honors for him.

His biggest competition is Caleb Swanigan who's killing it at Purdue this year, and maybe Motley.

The one difference for Lauri and maybe a guard or a 6'6" wing is even if he tore his knee, he would remain a top prospect, as quickness isn't his entire game, and the reconstructed knee wouldn't make him shrink. He'd still be a legit 7-footer with touch and handle.

But with the potential competition at his position next year, including his own teammate, and just that you should take it if it is there as a top 10 pick, he will be gone, 95% sure.

I am just saying it is a little different for a player with his skill set. The injury worry isn't as potentially damaging, as he is likely a top 15 pick even if he went into the draft with a recently reconstructed ACL. As long as it wasn't a disaster tear of everything.

If by some miracle he stayed, I think we would play :
Dusan
Ayton
Lauri

As our frontline.

First subs would be dusan out and we go a little smaller and slide ayton and Lauri over w 3 wing/guard types.

It's not going to happen but I'm pretty sure we'd just be massive w 3 7 footers to start game. If a quick team gave us trouble we'd just sub dusan, still have two 7 footers and plenty of quickness. Lauri and ayton will get as many minutes as they can handle next year. Dusans could suffer a bit but not much. It might stunt CCs development some but as odds on title favorites w Lauri Returning, id be ok w it.

Longhorned wrote:Good teams couldn't even game plan for Frank Kaminsky. A big who stretches the floor will beat you. You have to win the game defending the other four players, and if you can't, your offense won't be enough if Arizona defends. There are some players in basketball who there are no answers for.

Kaminsky was much more assertive though. Lauri playing "within the offense" and taking what he is given is a gift and a curse.

Can anyone explain to me why the last several games, whoever's bringing the ball up the court immediately fires the ball to Lauri as he's coming up the court 5' BEHIND the 3 pt line at the top of the key? He gets it on the move but too far away to shoot. Many of these times his defender is backed off enough where he could have received the pass AT the 3pt line and popped an open 3. Most of these occur before the offense or defense is even set.

I've seen it enough now where I'm thinking it's either bad timing for the pass on the guard's part or the intent is to have Lauri pass from this position (which he always does) which doesn't make sense to me given that he'd have the option to pass or shoot if he got it a few feet closer to the 3pt line. It can't be bad timing as often as it happens because it's a wide open 15' pass and it happens constantly, but why?

Can anyone enlighten me?

mofo wrote:Can anyone explain to me why the last several games, whoever's bringing the ball up the court immediately fires the ball to Lauri as he's coming up the court 5' BEHIND the 3 pt line at the top of the key? He gets it on the move but too far away to shoot. Many of these times his defender is backed off enough where he could have received the pass AT the 3pt line and popped an open 3. Most of these occur before the offense or defense is even set.

I've seen it enough now where I'm thinking it's either bad timing for the pass on the guard's part or the intent is to have Lauri pass from this position (which he always does) which doesn't make sense to me given that he'd have the option to pass or shoot if he got it a few feet closer to the 3pt line. It can't be bad timing as often as it happens because it's a wide open 15' pass and it happens constantly, but why?

Can anyone enlighten me?

This is simply how we initiate our offense. We aren't looking for Lauri to jack threes with 25 seconds left on the shot clock every possession, we are looking for him to get his within the flow of the offense which will give the shots a much higher likelihood of going in. And I think you would see that he isn't actually open by the time he gets a few feet closer to the 3 pt line, so what you are seeing is a product of the defense not manning him up 5 ft behind the line because there's no need

mofo wrote:Can anyone explain to me why the last several games, whoever's bringing the ball up the court immediately fires the ball to Lauri as he's coming up the court 5' BEHIND the 3 pt line at the top of the key? He gets it on the move but too far away to shoot. Many of these times his defender is backed off enough where he could have received the pass AT the 3pt line and popped an open 3. Most of these occur before the offense or defense is even set.

I've seen it enough now where I'm thinking it's either bad timing for the pass on the guard's part or the intent is to have Lauri pass from this position (which he always does) which doesn't make sense to me given that he'd have the option to pass or shoot if he got it a few feet closer to the 3pt line. It can't be bad timing as often as it happens because it's a wide open 15' pass and it happens constantly, but why?

Can anyone enlighten me?

That set is based in the 4 being the one to rotate the ball, not immediately become a shooter. I would venture most offenses are not predicated on the 4 being a lights out 3 point shooter, so they tend to eas into it. Lauri is an anomaly.

Here's a variation that a coach I used to have ran that shows a similar "4 as there to swing the ball" look.

http://coachingbetterbball.blogspot.com ... n.html?m=1" target="_blank

I've seen it with other 4's that have no intention to shoot bc that's not why they get the ball as you guys say. It just seems like having the option to shoot in this case would make sense. I get we don't want to shoot 3's with 25 seconds on the shot clock all the time, but if your 50% 3pt shooter was open at the top of the key with 25 seconds to shoot, would you tell him not to?

mofo wrote:I've seen it with other 4's that have no intention to shoot bc that's not why they get the ball as you guys say. It just seems like having the option to shoot in this case would make sense. I get we don't want to shoot 3's with 25 seconds on the shot clock all the time, but if your 50% 3pt shooter was open at the top of the key with 25 seconds to shoot, would you tell him not to?

The idea behind the 4 being further back is to create an easier look to swing the ball by keeping a defender a bit back. The set is predicated on the ball movement, not the threat of the shot at that point.

Like I said above, there just aren't a ton of sets with the primary design to get your 4 a look at a transition 3. Also, even with a shooter as good as Lauri, I still think you want to work for better. If it's naturally there, fine, but don't destroy the timing and setup of the play chasing an early 3 by having Lauri run to the line.

Is it correct? We'll probably never know. It has it's reasoning, and I don't really think it is bad. But that's me.

One more thing. On the link above, one of the major reasons for using the 4 as a perimeter distributor is that one of the primary options is the 5 in a one on one post up. Using the 4 spaced the way he is eliminates the possibility of a big to big double if you can get the 5 a post touch.

Good stuff, Spiff. Plus, if Lauri were a bit closer he wouldn't have that space. And the first time he did that and succeeded, he wouldn't have any space.

Most offenses are predicated on: Can we get a great shot. You never know if you take an OK one right away. And if it doesn't go in, you've let the other team off the hook. Don't have to get tuckered out playing D.

The cumulative effect of swinging the ball shows up in the second half.

Yep. The negative Oregon football effect, except you play both sides of the ball in basketball.

gumby wrote:Good stuff, Spiff. Plus, if Lauri were a bit closer he wouldn't have that space. And the first time he did that and succeeded, he wouldn't have any space.

Most offenses are predicated on: Can we get a great shot. You never know if you take an OK one right away. And if it doesn't go in, you've let the other team off the hook. Don't have to get tuckered out playing D.

The cumulative effect of swinging the ball shows up in the second half.

Yes. As good a shooter as Lauri is, I'd rather have him shooting 5 dunks as opposed to 5 threes.

I would venture the only teams that actually try to plan the transition 3 into offense are the 500 MPH offenses like Oakland where a high number of 3's is a goal, along with a hyper pace. Most normal offenses will take transition 3's if they are there, but always prioritize getting to the rim. You draw fouls that way and you make the 3's you do take better shots when they come from kickouts and ball movement.

I also agree that any competent team will contest Lauri. Again, as good as Lauri is, a contested 3 taken 5 seconds into the shot clock sets up for failure. You have minimal offensive rebounding, it eliminates the potential of anything higher percentage and can put a ton of pressure on your transition D.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

Markkanen has slowly moved closer to Tier 2 alongside Jackson, Monk, Smith, Isaac and Tatum. The versatile 7-footer is shooting a crazy 49 percent from 3 on nearly five attempts per game.

A few scouts have made comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki. That seems a bit hyperbolic to me. There are some similarities there, especially with Markkanen's shooting ability for his height, but a Ryan Anderson comp might be more fitting.

Either way, getting another shooting big would be a nice fit for the Wolves -- if Tom Thibodeau can handle another player on the roster who doesn't play great defense.

Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_ ... ixers-more" target="_blank