Official Bracketology Thread

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:22 am

5 last week, 6 this week. What would it take for us to leave the west bracket?

Post by **UAdevil** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:57 pm

Sporting News has UA as a 7 seed this week...

MountainCat · Post by **MountainCat** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:27 pm

UAdevil wrote:Sporting News has UA as a 7 seed this week...

Wow, we are really moving up!

You would think that Larry Scott was putting together the Brackets. Does the east coast think we even exist this year? Guess we better sweep UCLA and USC this week or we may get assigned as a play-in game at the 12 seed.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:33 pm

We'll either be a 4 or 5.

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:42 pm

moved up to 6 (in the West) in USA Today, but the PAC lost a team (UCLA); now down to 8 teams

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /79996380/#" target="_blank

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:01 pm

UAtrue wrote:moved up to 6 (in the West) in USA Today, but the PAC lost a team (UCLA); now down to 8 teams

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /79996380/#" target="_blank

If we finish the way I'm expecting us to, we'll be a 4 or 5. Here's what I'm expecting:

UCLA (W)
USC (W)
ASU (W)
Colorado (W)
Utah (L)
Cal (W)
Stanford (W)

Pac tourney semi-finalist (I realize this is a low expectation, but that Pac tourney is going to be brutal this year; upsets galore, I think)

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:26 pm

thinking about location alone since we'll probably see a lot of movement in the seedings, a 3-seed in the west bracket would be fun even though a lot of folks don't like the honda center (and staples): bklyn (strong UA contingent, RHJ in the house) >> anaheim >> houston

or a 4 in the south: spokane >> l'ville (familiar to RA) >> houston

or a 4 in the midwest: denver >> chicago (UA fans) >> houston

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:47 pm

Chicat wrote:
UAtrue wrote:AZ down to No. 7 in the Midwest (starting play in NY against Washington) in USA Today's projection:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... chi-sports" target="_blank

I don't think it's possible to play the first round against someone in your conference.

They did some rule changes a few years back about conference seedings if a conference has a large of teams in. Only if you are in the top 4 of your bracket do they look at conference matchups, after that they stay true to seedings.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men ... tournament" target="_blank

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:31 pm

oops, i guess ryan didn't play at louisville back in his bc days.

maybe a 4-seed in the east, then: denver >> philly >> houston. trip back to PA for CSM!

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:59 am

Joe currently has us #5 in the South.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:30 pm

Don't think the UA matches up well against UK.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:55 pm

Merkin wrote:Don't think the UA matches up well against UK.

Or Duke, really. Not that Duke and KY aren't vulnerable this year, but they both have matchups that suck for us.

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:45 am

call me crazy, but i think it's a little premature to for espn & joe loon to be calling oregon "the pac-12's safest choice" with a 2-seed. yeah, they may have punched their ticket but it isn't exactly a downhill cruise from here on out. i'll be surprised if that 2 spot holds.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:20 pm

dirtbags wrote:call me crazy, but i think it's a little premature to for espn & joe loon to be calling oregon "the pac-12's safest choice" with a 2-seed. yeah, they may have punched their ticket but it isn't exactly a downhill cruise from here on out. i'll be surprised if that 2 spot holds.

Prescient

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:26 pm

Arizona might be in trouble here. 6 seed in the south in the official mock bracket. Utah a 4 and Oregon a 2. That was a huge loss to Providence. OCC matters this year to the committee from the looks of it right now.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:33 pm

WTF is an official mock bracket?

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:55 pm

PHXCATS wrote:Arizona might be in trouble here. 6 seed in the south in the official mock bracket. Utah a 4 and Oregon a 2. That was a huge loss to Providence. OCC matters this year to the committee from the looks of it right now.

We keep winning and we're a safe 4 seed, maybe even a 3.

Gilbertcat · Post by **Gilbertcat** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:00 pm

4 out of the next 7 teams are in the rpi top 50...good chance to move up.

TheBlackLodge · Post by **TheBlackLodge** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:07 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:WTF is an official mock bracket?

It officially means nothing.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:11 pm

LMFAO no kidding.

Here is the bottom line: do what we need to do at home, four home wins against the California teams and beat ASU at home (which I fully expect with us being close to full strength again), and split the Utah/Rado road trip. That puts us at 25-6. Make it to the conference tournament championship game and we should be a slam dunk 3 seed. I dont know how anyone can argue otherwise with how tough/deep the Pac 12 is this year. We do all that AND win the conference tourney, I think we are a 2 seed. The committee is gonna look at us and say, thats a team that ended well and really only entered rough spots because of injuries to two key starters for extended periods. The what have you done for me lately is huge w the selection committee, and a lot of those teams all better than us in the loss column are going to be losing 2, 3 games by the time the NCAAs are seeded.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:04 pm

TheBlackLodge wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:WTF is an official mock bracket?
It officially means nothing.

It's as official as a guess on seedings with 4 weeks left until the tourney can be.

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:42 am

I did not realize that our SOS was that weak. It will improve, but it will still be a mark against us come seeding time.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?src=desktop" target="_blank

One things they said on the post game broadcast last night was that we're are the only P12 team with a winning record in true road games. If that is true and it holds, that will help.

I think we'd need to win out to have a good chance at a 2 seed, and I do not see that happening. I say we lose one more road game and make the P12 tournament championship game... leaving us as either a 3 or a 4, depending on whether or not we win it all in Vegas.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:49 pm

Out SOS in the RPI is bad, 120 something. BPI is 65.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:11 pm

Last I saw a day or so ago our overall SOS was #90, our ooc SOS was #224

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:29 pm

we all knew that was going to be problematic since the preseason, though. maybe this is the year we see CSM vs. archie in a 3-6 or 4-5 tournament matchup...

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:31 pm

I feel like if our SOS isn't 100+ it shouldn't hurt us.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:00 pm

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html" target="_blank

Up to #89 in SOS. Ooc SOS is #238 which is by far the worst of any top 40 rpi team

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:20 am

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:46 am

I'd say we're a 5 seed right now. Look like a 3 in the eye test, but all the rpi/SOS numbers stuff point to us being a 7/8.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:49 am

ASUHATER! wrote:I'd say we're a 5 seed right now. Look like a 3 in the eye test, but all the rpi/SOS numbers stuff point to us being a 7/8.

Too much ball left to know for sure, but I'd say we end up seeded between a 3 and a 6.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:53 am

Us being a 6 seed right now is a joke, especially when u look at some of the teams ahead of us (and how in the f is Texas A&M still a three seed after losing five of six? All to teams i believe are not currently ranked. Plus an ASU loss?

I still think us as a 5 seed is a bit ridiculous

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:59 am

rgdeuce wrote:Us being a 6 seed right now is a joke, especially when u look at some of the teams ahead of us (and how in the f is Texas A&M still a three seed after losing five of six? All to teams i believe are not currently ranked. Plus an ASU loss?

I still think us as a 5 seed is a bit ridiculous

It'll depend on how much the committee values RPI and of course how we finish the season. Roll through the rest of the season and win the Pac tourney and there's no way we're not a 3 seed.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:01 pm

With how crazy the Pac has been this year, I'd actually be more impressed by this team winning the Pac tourney than winning the reg season title.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:03 pm

We need to stop winning stat or we'll be a bubble team before long.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:28 pm

Chicat wrote:
It'll depend on how much the committee values RPI and of course how we finish the season. Roll through the rest of the season and win the Pac tourney and there's no way we're not a 3 seed.

Yea, thats how im seeing it too. If we ran the table, i still think we are a two seed. Only using to utah and a tourney title, a 3, and possibly a 3 if we lose to utah and still make the championship game. Our BPI is 11th when u take out Louisville and SMU. Kenpom we are 13th taking out Louisville. Sagarin we are 13th if u take out Louisville. I think thats more than fair right now and translates to a 3 or 4 seed. Now, I dont feel we are worthy of a 3 seed right now, obviously, but I think we should be a firm 4 or at worst, an arguable 5 seed.

The committee also takes into account injuries (we've had two huge ones not including Ray, as well as some minor injuries and illnesses), road record (having the best road record in maybe the deepest conference says a lot, especially when one was off a stepback 3 to a team who has been a giant killer at times, one was in 4ot to a tournament team, and the other was a one point loss to another tourney team who plays like 91 Duke when at home). You take all that into account, plus our BPI, Sagarin, and Kenpom.... Plus the good old eye test, I mean really, once Trier hits his stride, who wants to play us, with our senior front court thats one of the best in the nation, plus a great 7 foot scorer off the bench, and a sharpshooter in Gabe, PJC coming into his own and Allen being a solid player once he shakes this virus..

And if this team ever figures out how to play two halves if basketball, nobody will want to play us.

CatMG · Post by **CatMG** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:40 pm

rgdeuce wrote:Us being a 6 seed right now is a joke, especially when u look at some of the teams ahead of us (and how in the f is Texas A&M still a three seed after losing five of six? All to teams i believe are not currently ranked. Plus an ASU loss?

I still think us as a 5 seed is a bit ridiculous

The silly part is that in the last bracket, Arizona was steady as a 5 seed. Two wins later and the Cats are a 6 seed and dropping?

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:48 pm

Yea, a head scratcher for sure. Guess they only watched the first half of the UCLA game and the second half of the USC game.

If it were the other way around, we'd probably have jumped to a 3 seed

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:32 pm

Cats shouldn't have to win out to get a 3 seed. In the deepest conference in America?

What if that was the Big East or ACC? Ludicrous. A&M's been overrated since December and has looked like hot garbage outside its conference.

Sweep home and split the roadie, get to the tourney championship game and I think that should be enough. Who would definitively deserve #12 more than the Cats in that scenario?

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:58 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:We need to stop winning stat or we'll be a bubble team before long.

still plenty of room for movement in the seedings, plus we'll definitely get some help as things shake out and upsets happen in the other conferences.

and not to give too much credit to the mcnews, but did anyone see the current usa today tourney projections? man, how much of a weaksauce bracket would it be if oregon and UofA got the 3 and 6 seeds in the west, respectively?

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:06 pm

catgrad97 wrote:Cats shouldn't have to win out to get a 3 seed. In the deepest conference in America?

Deepest conference as far as pretty good teams, but not deepest as far as top level, dominant teams.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:51 pm

I honestly have no clue where we deserve to be seeded but I will say the only 2 teams I don't want to see in our bracket are Oklahoma and Kansas. Not that no other teams can't beat us, but those are the only 2 that scare me

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:41 am

Alieberman wrote:I honestly have no clue where we deserve to be seeded but I will say the only 2 teams I don't want to see in our bracket are Oklahoma and Kansas. Not that no other teams can't beat us, but those are the only 2 that scare me

Every team scares me.

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:26 am

catgrad97 wrote:Cats shouldn't have to win out to get a 3 seed. In the deepest conference in America?

What if that was the Big East or ACC? Ludicrous. A&M's been overrated since December and has looked like hot garbage outside its conference.

Sweep home and split the roadie, get to the tourney championship game and I think that should be enough. Who would definitively deserve #12 more than the Cats in that scenario?

Weak SOS is gonna hurt us. Sucks that Gonzaga is having a down year. UNLV, our only other "decent" OOC matchup sucks this year. Guess I don't even need to mention Missouri.

Lunardi has Dayton as a 4 seed and us as a 6? Wonder if this is the year one of the bigger schools come calling for Archie?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:35 am

Seeding doesn't matter as much as matchups. Even less of a concern, location.

This year more than ever, there isn't much different in the little numbers next to a seed.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:19 pm

the whole basis for Brennan's argument against RPI lists AZ at 25 -- his support has AZ listed at (13) BPI and (15) kenpom.

i used to love reading ESPN for information and static purposes but it has just become one big ACC blowjob tour

College Basketball Bubble Watch

Why does the RPI love the Pac-12?

Have you ever had a friend who dated a person you find mostly unappealing? Or been a parent bewildered by his or her offspring's choice of mate?

That's how the Bubble Watch feels every time it looks at the Pac-12's RPI page. We sit there, rubbing our chin, wondering what on Earth the RPI sees in him. The RPI shouts back at us, wide-eyed and defiant: You don't know the Pac-12 like I do! You could never understand! I love the Pac-12!

And make no mistake: The RPI loves the Pac-12. On Tuesday morning, 11 of its 12 teams ranked 80th or higher in the RPI. Jerry Palm's aggregate conference RPI rankings place the Pac-12 second behind the Big 12. The ACC is third. The Big Ten is sixth. The Pac-12 is a good, deep, league, with maybe just one truly bad team (sorry, Washington State), but those figures remain eye-popping.

The numbers for individual teams can be even more vexing. Oregon (No. 4), Utah (17), USC (22), California (23), Arizona (25), Colorado (27) and Oregon State (35) are all among the top 35 in the RPI. Here are those teams' rankings in ESPN.com's Basketball Power Index and Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency rankings:

BPI |Adj. Eff.
Oregon 24 | 20
Utah 42 | 40
USC 23 | 26
California 32 | 32
Arizona 13 | 15
Colorado 49 | 63
Oregon State 70 | 70

Curious, isn't it? The BPI and KenPom, which track efficiency in different ways that aren't worth delving into here, basically agree across the board. Yet the RPI thinks nearly every one of those teams is better -- significantly better -- than the other systems. Oregon State fans can tweet angry things at the Watch all they want, but seriously: The Beavers? Top 35?

So, how does this happen? Simply put, the Pac-12 scheduled intelligently.

After digging through nonconference schedules and RPI breakdowns, the data basically backs this up. On average, the Pac-12 scheduled 4.1 games per team against teams rated 200th or below in the RPI. The only major conference with fewer cupcakes per member was the SEC (3.6) -- which in recent years hired former NCAA vice president Greg Shaheen to spearhead a league-wide RPI scheduling effort. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 scheduled the most nonconference games per team against the RPI top 25 (1.4) of any of the leagues we tracked.

It went 3-14 in those games. Not important! What is important is that the Pac-12, as a whole, didn't drag itself down with dead RPI weight in nonconference play. It also managed to play more high-quality teams than most major leagues. The differences are fractional. Specifics vary. But with the RPI, it's all relative. And it all adds up.

The Pac-12 is in the driveway honking his beat-up car's horn. The RPI is standing at the door screaming that we don't know what love really is. Then we walk outside and the Pac-12 is blaring "Thunder Road," and as we crane our neck we can see the top of a bouquet of flowers perched on the passenger seat.

And you know what? Now we kind of get it.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:33 pm

Scheduling tougher opponents? What a crazy way to game the system.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:46 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Scheduling tougher opponents? What a crazy way to game the system.

How dare we!!!

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:57 pm

ESPN is turning into the battered wife of the ACC and SEC.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:42 pm

Read that this morning. I especially liked the part where Arizona was not a lock to make the tournament, but Oregon was.... and USC and Utah "should be in" but we still have work to do.

Oregon's big nonconference wins were all at home against Baylor, Bama, Valpo. They lost to Boise State (who we beat on home and neutral), UNLV at home (who we beat convincingly). We also went on the road and beat Gonzaga (not as good as we thought, but still the BPI likes it and it is a tough game) and our loss to Providence at a neutral site is much better than their two losses. Six of Oregon's eight top 50 RPI wins are conference foes. But therein lies the problem. You hate RPI, but are gonna use it to Oregon's favor to make them a lock? Cuz, we are 4-1 vs BPI top 100 nonconference, Oregon is 3-2, and per BPI, our win against Gonzaga (29th) is better than their best win at home against Valpo (39) (baylor is 45th). Overall, BPI top 100, Arizona is 11-5 and Oregon is 12-6. Who gives a rats ass if Arizona played some typically good schools that aren't as good as expected this year, or played a couple more cream puffs rather than the 150th best team in the nation per BPI or RPI. They beat all of them by double digits as they should, outside of the Santa Clara fiasco. No losses outside the top 100 in either, and Oregon has one. Our BPI ranks higher than both USC and Oregon by 10 and 11, and Utah by 29. Taking out Louisville, we are ranked 12th.

Really curious how USC has a better resume too. They have two conference wins away from home and one technically is a "neutral site" right up the road (UCLA and Washington State). They are 4-2 against BPI top 100 in nonconference, their second best was aided by a Van Fleet injury on a neutral site when Wichita State was losing to everyone. Utah 5-2 against BPI top 100, 3 road conference wins, but I guess that Duke win is their trump card. Again though, RPI is the only measurement that has both of those schools above us. Sagarin and Kenpom both have us higher than Oregon as well. I'll give Oregon the benefit of the doubt of being ahead of us for the simple fact they beat us at our place. If both Arizona and Oregon were to lose out, we would be 21-10 (9-9), Oregon 19-11 (9-9). Both teams should be locks.

Gilbertcat · Post by **Gilbertcat** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:44 pm

Projections from across the web:

4 Seed
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/" target="_blank

6 Seed West
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /80374484/" target="_blank

5 Seed West
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

5 Seed South
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketb ... -wisconsin" target="_blank

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