Official Bracketology Thread

Bear Down Vegas · Post by **Bear Down Vegas** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:03 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:No chance for a 2. I say this based on what I expect...

This is the most succinct quote/summary of your posts ever.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:07 pm

Bear Down Vegas wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:No chance for a 2. I say this based on what I expect...

This is the most succinct quote/summary of your posts ever.

Cool. I'll keep it succinct.

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:12 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
UAtrue wrote:Both Lunardi and USA Today now have us as a 4 seed in the midwest and Oregon a 3 seed in the west.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?i ... &year=2016" target="_blank

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /80699606/" target="_blank
Is the committee really gonna do a Sean/Archie matchup? Is that a given?

It seems that way. Every week the seedings move us around, yet we frequently see this matchup...

Likely just wishful thinking on the prognosticators. I imagine this is not in the "rulebook" that the committee turns to when deciding.

It's not like in the NFL where they have the refs decide games to ensure a top-draw ticket in the superbowl or something.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:27 pm

I've already resigned to the fact that we'll play one or more of sdsu, gonzaga or Dayton in the tournament every year from now on.

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 3:13 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:I've already resigned to the fact that we'll play one or more of sdsu, gonzaga or Dayton in the tournament every year from now on.

No more Wisconsin? We need to bury that one like we did for Duke, Kansas, and others...

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:41 pm

So what gets us back in the West bracket? Can we have 1 more loss before Selection Sunday?

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:54 pm

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14789623" target="_blank

Williams: Final 4 Squad
Greenberg: BEAR DOWN!

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:37 am

Jefe wrote:http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14789623

Williams: Final 4 Squad
Greenberg: BEAR DOWN!

This year, I wouldn't be surprised if we made a Final Four. I also wouldn't be surprised if we lost in the rou d of 64 or 32.

This is a year dominated by parity nationally and while we're a good team, we're far from invincible.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:45 am

A lot of people jumping on that Arizona bandwagon. If we close this season out well Miller is going to win national coach of the year.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:52 pm

rgdeuce wrote:A lot of people jumping on that Arizona bandwagon. If we close this season out well Miller is going to win national coach of the year.

But not Pac12 coach of the year because, Arizona. All I hear is Enfield & Altman.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:11 pm

84Cat wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:A lot of people jumping on that Arizona bandwagon. If we close this season out well Miller is going to win national coach of the year.
But not Pac12 coach of the year because, Arizona. All I hear is Enfield & Altman.

The coach of the Pac reg season champ should be COY.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:39 pm

Like Miller was last year....oops just like McConnell should have been POY.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:45 pm

84Cat wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:A lot of people jumping on that Arizona bandwagon. If we close this season out well Miller is going to win national coach of the year.
But not Pac12 coach of the year because, Arizona. All I hear is Enfield & Altman.

Look at any dominant force. Michael Jordan did not win every MVP award he should have. Miller won't because contending for a Pac crown is expected at Arizona.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:07 pm

azcat49 wrote:Like Miller was last year....oops just like McConnell should have been POY.

I don't think the Pac media are too fond of Miller or AZ. Only way to explain what happened last year.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:16 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:The coach of the Pac reg season champ should be COY.

Not automatically. Let's say the regular season champ is a loaded team that is picked by everybody to win and there is a team that is picked to finish in the bottom half. That team plays out of it's mind the whole year and finishes second. That guy should get COY.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 4:32 pm

azgreg wrote: That team plays out of it's mind the whole year and finishes second. That guy should get COY.

I guess, but can you think of year when that actually happened?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:39 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
azgreg wrote: That team plays out of it's mind the whole year and finishes second. That guy should get COY.
I guess, but can you think of year when that actually happened?

Not at the top of my head and I'm too tired to do the research at this time.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:45 am

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:58 am

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:25 pm

Main Event wrote:

I have zero desire to play Xavier again for a number of reasons.

Look, I get our OOC SOS issue, but on some level, we're currently underseeded by 2 spots for our poll numbers. It's not any of the current projections aren't penalizing us a good deal.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:39 pm

Well I would hate to be on that 5 line that got matched against a 12 seed like Valpo or as a 6 playing Monmouth. Both those teams will win in the tourney first game IMO

dcZONAfan · Post by **dcZONAfan** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:59 pm

azcat49 wrote:Well I would hate to be on that 5 line that got matched against a 12 seed like Valpo or as a 6 playing Monmouth. Both those teams will win in the tourney first game IMO

I agree that I want NO part of Valpo. But Monmouth's style of play fits right into what we like to do and I don't think we'd lose to them.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 3:25 pm

Even if we win tomorrow and also win the Pac tourney, we're not getting higher than a 4, not with a 4th place Pac finish and a horrendous SOS.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 3:41 pm

Yeah ceiling is a 4. Basement is probably an 8 if we find a way to lose to stanford and the first round of the tournament.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:08 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah ceiling is a 4. Basement is probably an 8 if we find a way to lose to stanford and the first round of the tournament.

I don't think we're slipping to an 8. Maybe a 7 if that happens.

But let's be real. We're beating Stanford tomorrow. Beyond that, no idea. Depending on which team shows up, we could lose Thursday or reach the final. I don't think we're going to win the Pac tourney, though, unless we can avoid Oregon and Cal. I think these two teams are just better than us on a neutral court.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 5:28 pm

U want to hear something really funny?? Against the RPI top 100, Arizona is 13-7. So 2/3 of our games have been against top 100 teams. Want to know what other teams in the RPI top 50 have as many or more wins against RPI top 100 teams than us?

Kansas 17-3, Oregon 17-5, Utah 16-7, Miami 15-2, Texas 14-10, and Cal 13-8. Thats it, I shit you not. In terms of games played against top 100, take Miami off, and add Iowa State, Oregon State, and USC... Thats it. If we want to use the BPI here, things look even better for us.

Thanks how ridiculous this strength of schedule bullshit is. Cuz thats what it is. They want to hang that RPI strength of schedule over our heads (107 ranking) when BPI says ours is 54th toughest, teamrankings has us 37th, Kenpom 70th, and Sagarin 63rd. So which one is the outlier here? So we can chill w our pillow soft strength of schedule talk now... The difference is, our cupcakes were just more cupcakeier than most others. Big whoop. We dont lose to rpi 100 plus teams so who gives a shit

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 5:49 pm

So basically, if these dudes want to use RPI as an argument against us, then be consistent and put the 7 pac 12 teams who all have RPI rankings 36th or better in the tournament

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:00 pm

rgdeuce wrote:So basically, if these dudes want to use RPI as an argument against us, then be consistent and put the 7 pac 12 teams who all have RPI rankings 36th or better in the tournament

What if the end goal is just to crap on the Pac 12?

Because that's a lot of what I think is at play. You can shave down our SOS hugely by just trying to discount the Pac portion and focus on OOC. Per Brennan's "gaming the system" argument about the Pac, the Pac really isn't that good and you should just toss it all out.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:13 pm

3 PAC schools will reach the sweet 16

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 7:17 pm

Thats exactly whats going on Space. Nine pac 12 teams were supposed to get in at one point. We all beat each other up like everyone expected, and nine teams have gotten widdled down to six. Best believe they were going to keep Colorado out til they beat us. Seen plenty of talk of people questioning Oregon State and USC too. Looks like Lunardi has 7 Pac teams in his latest, which is fine and the way it should be. I think six get in, and u cant have too much heartburn over one snub, but had colorado not beat us i bet that number would be five, which would be ridiculous

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:01 pm

Alieberman wrote:3 PAC schools will reach the sweet 16

Maybe. But only FF berths will boost the Pac's cred. We've been getting teams to the S-16 and E-8 pretty consistently.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:58 pm

rgdeuce wrote:U want to hear something really funny?? Against the RPI top 100, Arizona is 13-7. So 2/3 of our games have been against top 100 teams. Want to know what other teams in the RPI top 50 have as many or more wins against RPI top 100 teams than us?

Kansas 17-3, Oregon 17-5, Utah 16-7, Miami 15-2, Texas 14-10, and Cal 13-8. Thats it, I shit you not. In terms of games played against top 100, take Miami off, and add Iowa State, Oregon State, and USC... Thats it. If we want to use the BPI here, things look even better for us.

Thanks how ridiculous this strength of schedule bullshit is. Cuz thats what it is. They want to hang that RPI strength of schedule over our heads (107 ranking) when BPI says ours is 54th toughest, teamrankings has us 37th, Kenpom 70th, and Sagarin 63rd. So which one is the outlier here? So we can chill w our pillow soft strength of schedule talk now... The difference is, our cupcakes were just more cupcakeier than most others. Big whoop. We dont lose to rpi 100 plus teams so who gives a shit

3 and 7 vs the top 50 though isn't very good

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:08 am

No, it isnt. Actually think theyre 3-6, since UCLA continues to fall. Four of those games are true road games, all decided in the last what, 30 seconds? Two of those were top 16 RPI teams. One is a home game to the #4 team. The last was neutral against providence. Out of those six, how many where Zeus or Trier hurt for? Four if you count Trier playing with a broken hand for four OTs.

The whole point is, these analyses are bullshit. Use the rpi for u, but you, you and you we are going to eye test because the RPI is full of crap. They are picking and choosing selective stats and ignoring the others. They are using the eye test but then ignoring the eye test. Arizona has seven losses, which are 2 to even 4 less than some teams seeded higher than we are projected. But if you acutally LOOK at those seven losses, why are they being treated like they are horrible losses? They treat them like its washington state, and road blowouts to cal and utah. Like I said before, one or two balls bounce our way in each of those games, (or the refs dont fist us in a lot of them), we are 29-1 and then what? Plus the whole strengtg of schedule, they only focus on the part that makes us look bad, nevermind our conferences RPI is crazy. And they only focus on the RPIs SOS, not all the others who have us in the 35-70 range, much better than rpis 107.

Kentuckys a 4 seed for everyone right? They have three losses to RPI 51-100 and two RPI 100+. That almost equals our 7 total losses (remember, six were top 50 teams, and number 7 we both lost to, UCLA, but we didnt get embarrassed). Plus they play in the super shitty SEC. And oh yea, top 50 wins, they got 3... Same as us

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:55 am

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:59 am

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology" target="_blank

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:00 am

So sick of playing SDSU

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 9:58 am

Irish27 wrote:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

That final 4 run... Michigan, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma..

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:11 am

Irish27 wrote:http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Give me that bracket please!

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:31 am

Villanova no. 1?? Anyone see them play?

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:21 pm

HiCat wrote:Villanova no. 1?? Anyone see them play?

Not at all this year. But they are #3 in the RPI with the #15 SOS. 8-4 vs. The top 50, 27-4 overall. No bad losses

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:58 pm

HiCat wrote:Villanova no. 1?? Anyone see them play?

They have lots of guards. Everything else is pretty average.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:30 pm

Its villanova. Which means they will lose in the sweet 16 or sooner.

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:53 pm

Exactly like last year

prh · Post by **prh** » Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:04 am

The 343 teams that won't win the national title

By my calculations, that leaves eight teams that may win the national championship. Congratulations to Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Villanova. Make me look good.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:56 pm

I'm seeing a 4 seed...if only for the 97 comparisons...

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 2:32 pm

#1 most accurate "bracketologist" has Arizona as a #6 seed

http://assemblycall.com/bracketology/" target="_blank

For years, our very own Andy Bottoms has been projecting the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Why should you pay attention to Andy? Because according to Bracket Matrix, Andy is still the #1 ranked bracketologist in the world. (For frame of reference, Joe Lunardi is 36th.)
http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html" target="_blank

EAST (PHILADELPHIA)

Providence – March 17/19
6) Arizona
11) St. Bonaventure / Tulsa
3) West Virginia
14) Stony Brook
Raleigh – March 17/19
7) Wisconsin
10) Vanderbilt
2) North Carolina
15) Wright St

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:11 pm

A 6 is about our lowest possible seed, I think. If we beat Colorado and lose to Oregon, I think we're a 5. If we beat Oregon and lose in the title game, probably still a 5. Win the Pac tourney and we're a 4.

dcZONAfan · Post by **dcZONAfan** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:16 pm

I think we are a 3 if we beat CU, OU, and Utah/Cal

That's a damn impressive 3 game run.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:27 pm

dcZONAfan wrote:I think we are a 3 if we beat CU, OU, and Utah/Cal

That's a damn impressive 3 game run.

Other, higher rated teams would have to flame out early in their conference tourneys. Which of these 12 teams do you see AZ moving ahead of:

Kansas, UVA, UNC, Nova, Xavier, OK, OR, MSU, Indy, UT, Miami, WVA?

OR won the Pac outright, so I'd say they're safely a 3 seed (possibly a 2); we could probably catch Utah.

This conversation is convincing me that there's a lot at stake this week.

dcZONAfan · Post by **dcZONAfan** » Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:39 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
dcZONAfan wrote:I think we are a 3 if we beat CU, OU, and Utah/Cal

That's a damn impressive 3 game run.
Other, higher rated teams would have to flame out early in their conference tourneys. Which of these 12 teams do you see AZ moving ahead of:

Kansas, UVA, UNC, Nova, Xavier, OK, OR, MSU, Indy, UT, Miami, WVA?

OR won the Pac outright, so I'd say they're safely a 3 seed (possibly a 2); we could probably catch Utah.

This conversation is convincing me that there's a lot at stake this week.

Depending on outcomes I think we could catch Utah, Miami, WVU, Indiana (if they lost to Michigan or Northwestern)

Certainly will take an early loss by one of those teams, though

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