Bear Down Wildcats

3 bids, but who?

Arizona, Utah and ?

Washington will crumble. Colorado has horrible losses. California's best win is Washington, that won't count in the end.

Does that leave Stanford since everyone else sucks?

Depends on computer numbers. Probably Furd.

Four bids

U of A, Utah, Stanford and if someone goes on a run or gets a win vs Utah and Arizona. Oregon/Washington are the two with the best chance to do that

Machina wrote:Four bids

U of A, Utah, Stanford and if someone goes on a run or gets a win vs Utah and Arizona. Oregon/Washington are the two with the best chance to do that

Wait, Machina I thought we were University of Transfers? You are confusing me.

Machina wrote:Four bids

U of A, Utah, Stanford and if someone goes on a run or gets a win vs Utah and Arizona. Oregon/Washington are the two with the best chance to do that

I had figured 4 bids. Then Stony Brook and UW's last 3 games changed my mind.

UA, Utah, Stanford and then 1 of UW/Oregon/Cal.

UW, despite their 3-game losing streak, still only has 3 losses (none of which are technically "bad", laugh at Stony Brook all you want, their RPI is 58 and KenPom 98, higher in both than UNLV) and plenty of time to right the ship. RPI (44) and KenPom (49) says they're likely in as of now.

Oregon's best win is Illinois (a bubble team themselves), they lost to Michigan and VCU, and still have not played a true road game this season (won't until 1 week from now, 1/15 at Wazzu, and their 3rd away game will be at UA on 1/28). Unless they just keep winning, I don't think they'll have the resume, although they are a better KenPom team (61) than RPI (94).

Cal has 2 bad losses, 1 to Wazzu and 1 unexplainable one to Cal-State Bakersfield, and currently are on the outside looking in with a lot of work to do. They are 5-2 against RPI100 teams. They need Bird back, and they could get hot in Feb with him in the lineup and producing, so if they can tread water until he returns, I won't rule Cal out just yet.

With no OOC games left for them, ASU, UCLA, Colorado & Oregon St would need to win 14+ conference games to get to 22-23 wins & even enter the discussion, otherwise their only hope is to win the P12 Tourney.

I've already ruled out USC & Wazzu at my own peril.

The problem with Stony Brook isn't their current RPI if you want to go with computer numbers. It's where their RPI will end up. Not a single team in their remaining schedule in the top 150. Most are mid-200's, or sub 300. Even if they go undefeated, their RPI spirals and it becomes a 'bad loss' for UW.

Stanford just lost to a pathetic UCLA team. Won't do them any favors.

4 is possible if the right teams win. 3 is probable. 2 if all the wrong teams win.

BigSkyCatinMT wrote:The problem with Stony Brook isn't their current RPI if you want to go with computer numbers. It's where their RPI will end up. Not a single team in their remaining schedule in the top 150. Most are mid-200's, or sub 300. Even if they go undefeated, their RPI spirals and it becomes a 'bad loss' for UW.

Stanford just lost to a pathetic UCLA team. Won't do them any favors.

4 is possible if the right teams win. 3 is probable. 2 if all the wrong teams win.

Stony Brook isn't all of a sudden going to drop out of the RPI 150. If their opponent's opponents keep on winning - like UA and Utah in the case of UW - then Stony Brook's RPI will stabilize.

Stanford lost in double OT.

Nothing I saw tonight changed my opinion, although it's looking less likely Cal can tread water before Bird returns.

The 'eye test' tells me it's a 4 bid league. The numbers tell a different story. Michigan, K-State, Missouri, etc. So many expected tough opponents sucking hurts.
Here's Stony Brooks remaining schedule with RPI's. Nothing to gain here.

256 Jan. 10 @ Vermont 12:00 PM
334 Jan. 14 UMBC 7:00 PM
323 Jan. 17 @ Maine 2:00 PM
219 Jan. 19 Albany 7:00 PM
174 Jan. 22 @ UMass Lowell 5:30 PM
343 Jan. 25 @ Binghamton 2:00 PM
204 Jan. 28 Hartford 7:00 PM
269 Jan. 31 @ New Hampshire 12:00 PM
256 Feb. 7 Vermont 7:00 PM
334 Feb. 11 @ UMBC 7:00 PM
323 Feb. 14 Maine 2:00 PM
219 Feb. 17 @ Albany 7:00 PM
343 Feb. 21 Binghamton 7:00 PM
174 Feb. 25 UMass Lowell 7:00 PM
204 Feb. 28 @ Hartford 7:00 PM

Someone has got to rise up and settle into the third spot. Stanford blew their turn last night after losing to a ho-hum UCLA team last night. My guess is someone goes on a late season run, racks up wins in Vegas, and barely qualifies thanks to the tourney expansion. Thank goodness for Utah giving the Pac at least one other dependable team.

BigSkyCatinMT wrote:The 'eye test' tells me it's a 4 bid league. The numbers tell a different story. Michigan, K-State, Missouri, etc. So many expected tough opponents sucking hurts.
Here's Stony Brooks remaining schedule with RPI's. Nothing to gain here.

256 Jan. 10 @ Vermont 12:00 PM
334 Jan. 14 UMBC 7:00 PM
323 Jan. 17 @ Maine 2:00 PM
219 Jan. 19 Albany 7:00 PM
174 Jan. 22 @ UMass Lowell 5:30 PM
343 Jan. 25 @ Binghamton 2:00 PM
204 Jan. 28 Hartford 7:00 PM
269 Jan. 31 @ New Hampshire 12:00 PM
256 Feb. 7 Vermont 7:00 PM
334 Feb. 11 @ UMBC 7:00 PM
323 Feb. 14 Maine 2:00 PM
219 Feb. 17 @ Albany 7:00 PM
343 Feb. 21 Binghamton 7:00 PM
174 Feb. 25 UMass Lowell 7:00 PM
204 Feb. 28 @ Hartford 7:00 PM

Keep winning, and by virtue of their OOC schedule - especially if UW wins games - they won't lose as much ground as you think either.

How about two bids?

How about Oregon State? Maybe they are the third bid .

BigSkyCatinMT wrote:
Does that leave Stanford since everyone else sucks?

Looks like Stanford is the most dependable bet for 3rd. Good win last night, they have the best non-conference win (over TX), Chasson Randle is putting together a Pac 12 POY type season, and I dread to think of Nastic going against Tarc.

Sorry beating Gonzaga is a better win

Stanford needs 7 more wins to get an at large bid and odds of winning that many is at +88%.

Utah & Arizona are 'locks' and no other Pac-12 team has above 30% odds of getting an at-large bid.

Still 3 - if Stanford makes it, and should. Everyone else out, or a long shot.

BigSkyCatinMT wrote:Still 3 - if Stanford makes it, and should. Everyone else out, or a long shot.

Agreed BigSkyCatinMT......really disappointed in the quality of Coaches we have in the Pac currently:

UCLA/Alford: not 'UCLA' good and will be fired (the AD should be as well) in a few years IMO.
USC/Enfield: jury still out on Dunk City.....it's not like hoops is big at USC so maybe he can turn it around enough to stay there a few years.
CAL/Martin: if you listen to the UT fans, they are happy he's gone....seems like a decent guy but not a really good Coach and the UT folks day his recruiting isn't that good. Jury still out on his recruiting ability but I don't think he will land Rabb. Not all that impressed with his coaching ability either.
Stanford/Dawkins: Well, he somehow managed to keep his job with a good year, so far, this year but not sure if he'll be around in a few more years.
Oregon/Altman: He seems to underachieve with recruits and also several of his recruits have been nightmares (rape allegations, can't qualify, etc). How much longer does OU keep him?
OSU/Tinkle: Exciting hire and over-achieved for this year considering what he had to work with. Really good class next year...suspect he makes the NCAAs next year which would be a remarkable turnaround.
UW/Romar: Wow, his recruiting mistakes have come back to haunt him this year. Seems like a good class set up for next year so if he doesn't turn it around and do well in the Pac and make the NCAAs, I think he will be on the hot seat.
WSU/Kent:. He's got a hell of a task ahead trying to rebuild that program....don't think he lasts more than 4 years.....then again it's WSU Hoops, does anyone really care?
Utah/Krystkowiak (sp?): Good Coach and has rebuilt that program into a good one again. I see them as decent competition for the foreseeable future.
CU/Boyle: Has done a decent job and plagued with injuries and douchebags (I see you Xavier Johnson ). They aren't the rival people expected of them after his initial success and will be interesting to see how they do in the next few years and if they can recapture the momentum they lost this year.
ASSU/Herbie: God, I love having Herb at ASU....seems like a good guy who is a decent Coach but not a good one. For all the bitching they do, they don't deseve anyone better than Herbie!
UA/Miller: The class of the Pac12 and a future HOF'er IMHO. Just need to get that Final Four monkey off our backs.

Comments anyone please? Bear Down.

I kinda miss Bill Frieder.

3goggles wrote:Sorry beating Gonzaga is a better win

Yeah I would have agreed a month ago with Stanfords win over Tx but they've fallen apart.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

I know it's not the sole barometer, but the drama will be between three teams or two. Not seeing four. Stanford better shape up.

gumby wrote:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

I know it's not the sole barometer, but the drama will be between three teams or two. Not seeing four. Stanford better shape up.

I see three solid teams atm. Unless things change drastically, or someone comes from nowhere to win the tourney, I think it's a safe call. Staford being #34 in that poll is safely in when you consider all the auto bids.

So many bleh/meh teams in the Pac 12 this year. As of right now I'd only put Arizona and Utah in comfortably. Stanford is a bubble team and no one else deserves to be in, but Oregon or osu or uw could possibly go on a run at make it in. I just don't see how this is more than a 2, maybe 3 bid league.

ASUHATER! wrote:So many bleh/meh teams in the Pac 12 this year. As of right now I'd only put Arizona and Utah in comfortably. Stanford is a bubble team and no one else deserves to be in, but Oregon or osu or uw could possibly go on a run at make it in. I just don't see how this is more than a 2, maybe 3 bid league.

No kidding....for a Power Conference, the Pac12 is unimpressive.....we. We need better coaching hires (Tinkle excluded). The latest Coaching hires have really been mediocre....Alford, Enfield, Martin, Kent.....these guys aren't going to be doing anything impressive IMHO.

I agree with Bangkoks last two posts for the most part. (no particular order)

1) Alford has to win enough recruits that qualify to give him an actual roster. Then we can see if he's worth risking another year or two on.

2) Kent isn't 'Oregon good', but he should be WSU good. He should be enough to improve the team. I spent 2 years in Pullman, I know how bad it is.

3/4) The 'hip' hires on Martin and Einfeld are a 'wait-n-see'. I'm not giddy yet.

5) I don't trust Dawkins. Should have been fired. he just disappoints.

6/7) The Montana duo of Krystkowiak and Tinkle look like keepers.

8) What we've seen from Romar is what we'll continue to get. Some really good teams and inconsistency.

9/10 ) Boyle, Altman. Let's see what they can do without injuries/dipshits.

11/12) Miller, Sendeck , no comment needed.

This is the time of year that computer numbers and rakings matter alot. Mostly cause the bubble is big this year IMO.

AZ and Utah are locks, duh. Furd is in. A fourth is possible, but not for sure.

Well, Alford was a baffling hire. He isn't a big-time program coach, but he received a big-time deal and a huge buy-out penalty, so it will be very costly for UCLA to fire him. He will always bring in a few major recruits because it is still UCLA, but UCLA does not become a consistent, legitimate power again until he leaves.

midnightx wrote:Well, Alford was a baffling hire. He isn't a big-time program coach, but he received a big-time deal and a huge buy-out penalty, so it will be very costly for UCLA to fire him. He will always bring in a few major recruits because it is still UCLA, but UCLA does not become a consistent, legitimate power again until he leaves.

DG was desperate after all the big names turned them down......unbelievable UCLA can't get their act together and get a decent Coach.....then again, they don't show much loyalty or fan support when they do have one.

Thank God for the UCLA constantly shooting themselves in the foot as they have so many natural advantages It would hurt our recruiting if they ever got their act together. Alford......what a home for UCLA.....and the contract they gave him with the buyout is hysterical! Buddha say Alford hire bring good karma to Arizona, lol.

Stanford had it made at 15-5 before dispassionately losing to WSU and UCLA last night. Their slump/dump might be the reason the Pac 12 doesn't get a third bid. Who else steps up behind AZ & Utah?

Well Oregon, Oregon state, Stanford are the biggest chances. Uw and ucla have outside chances. Wouldn't be surprised if one or two of those schools surges up to make it

Odds (after games of 2/5/15) of getting at an large bid to the NCAA tournament:

100 Arizona
100 Utah
84 Stanford
58 UCLA
29 Oregon
<10 all other Pac-12 teams

CatsbyAZ wrote:Stanford had it made at 15-5 before dispassionately losing to WSU and UCLA last night. Their slump/dump might be the reason the Pac 12 doesn't get a third bid. Who else steps up behind AZ & Utah?

This^ Don't understand the lack of effort by them last night with so much on the line going forward. Maybe Randle and a few of the guys were sick or something. Terrible effort.

CBCat wrote:

CatsbyAZ wrote:Stanford had it made at 15-5 before dispassionately losing to WSU and UCLA last night. Their slump/dump might be the reason the Pac 12 doesn't get a third bid. Who else steps up behind AZ & Utah?

This^ Don't understand the lack of effort by them last night with so much on the line going forward. Maybe Randle and a few of the guys were sick or something. Terrible effort.

Randle can't handle pressure situations. At all. So much for senior leadership.

Stanford can do better than Dawkins. He's just not that good of a coach.

I so knew that Stanford would find a way to gag under Dawkins.

Went into watching last night's Oregon-SC game thinking the Ducks have a good chance to show off for the 3rd spot. They won, but didn't play all that well. Zero defense.

Per the much-maligned Joe Lunardi, 4 bids (as of today): http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Its crazy how UCLA is working their way in the picture.

Gilbertcat wrote:Its crazy how UCLA is working their way in the picture.

Makes no sense. The Bruins are tied for 5th in the Pac. Beavers beat 'em by 16, Ducks beat 'em by 18, they beat Furd by only 2.

Bad loss for the Furd. Are they officially on the bubble now?

Who has Furd beaten? Clinging to Texas being a great win?

Think it will be 4. UA Utah Oregon and UCLA. Oregon in a play on game

PHXCATS wrote:Think it will be 4. UA Utah Oregon and UCLA. Oregon in a play on game

I think Stanford's getting in ahead of Oregon.

Beachcat97 wrote:

PHXCATS wrote:Think it will be 4. UA Utah Oregon and UCLA. Oregon in a play on game

I think Stanford's getting in ahead of Oregon.

They didn't help themselves today.

Stanford is fading after today's loss to Colorado, at 7-6. I think they need to get to 11 wins in the conference and win a game or 2 in the tourney to get in, but anything short of that they are in trouble. I'll stick with 4 bids, UCLA replacing UW as they have a chance to get to 12-13 conference wins and 22-23 wins overall, sitting at #45 in KenPom and #36 in RPI.

Beachcat97 wrote:

PHXCATS wrote:Think it will be 4. UA Utah Oregon and UCLA. Oregon in a play on game

I think Stanford's getting in ahead of Oregon.

Your opinions don't carry much gravitas.

Yeah Stanford needs a big finish to get in. Oregon and ucla are surging back. At this point I think Arizona, Utah and Oregon get in.

Odds (after games of 2/15/15) of getting at an large bid to the NCAA tournament:

100 Arizona
100 Utah
85 Stanford
69 UCLA
32 Oregon
<1 all other Pac-12 teams

Kinda high for Stanford. They probably need to go 4-1 to finish with a win or two in the Pac 12 to get in, or 3-2 if one of the wins is over us. Anything less than 21 wins (they are at 16 now with 6-8 games remaining) won't be good enough. Don't know if they have a 6-1/5-2/7-1 type finish in them.