Memo to Impatient Players

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:52 pm

Frank Kaminsky started two games in his first two years. Could've left last year. Seems to having the time of his life.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:58 pm

Are you saying I should be happy that Frank stayed for his senior season?

Because I'm not

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:00 pm

Memo to patient players: a bunch of guys thought to be gone for the nba for Kentucky last year stayed to try again for a title. Still didn't work. Don't be patient.

77HoyaCat4Ever · Post by **77HoyaCat4Ever** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:01 pm

Even if you don't make it to the Finals, staying and playing has some distinct advantages.

Sol Hill

legallykenny · Post by **legallykenny** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:02 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Memo to patient players: a bunch of guys thought to be gone for the nba for Kentucky last year stayed to try again for a title. Still didn't work. Don't be patient.

Alternative lesson might be "don't play for a used car salesman, go to a school with a real coach."

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:03 pm

Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?

Sounds fun. Bon voyage!

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:05 pm

77HoyaCat4Ever wrote:Even if you don't make it to the Finals, staying and playing has some distinct advantages.

Sol Hill

Work on your game, get paid. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

How many cups of coffee in the league is Grant Jerrett up to now?

EDIT: I guess he's technically on the Jazz roster, but no minutes...

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:07 pm

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:10 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:

Work on your game, get paid. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

How many cups of coffee in the league is Grant Jerrett up to now?

EDIT: I guess he's technically on the Jazz roster, but no minutes...

Everyone else: Don't worry, he'll develop once he's in the league.

SCCat: Said a whole bunch of guys who never did.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:14 pm

I wonder how much his uncle is cashing in on his salary these days.

He could've been a contender.

PennZona20 · Post by **PennZona20** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:17 pm

It's all about long-term money v a short-term cash grab.

Guys like Grant Jerrett and Nick Johnson, Michael wright and potentially bash and Zeus don't make sense to me. It's an uphill battle of u are a 2nd round pick to get anymore than a 10-day contract. Of course u don't know what's going on in these kids' families situations, but I fail to see the logic. I'd rather have 10-100 mil and be broke for 20 years prior than 40k-250k and be broke for 18 years prior.

I think the guys who it's a tough decision for are the RHJs and Harrison's and kaminskys and other mid-to late first rounders. Those are the ones where u have to weigh the short-term and long-term pros and cons.

Guys like Stanley and Gordon and Okafor are the no brainers. Whenever you leave u will likely be a mainstay in the L and make millions. Tim Duncan could have left his frosh, soph, junior, or when he left and he was #1 pick. There was no wrong decision. But obviously he is the exception.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:17 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:I wonder how much his uncle is cashing in on his salary these days.

When you're making $500K a year pre tax there can't be much to go around.

You said he's on the Jazz roster right? So that means that OKC looked at him for a year in the D league and have already given up on him?

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:20 pm

gumby wrote:
Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?
Sounds fun. Bon voyage!

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:44 pm

Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?

I actually lived in Turkey for two years.........and I rode the bus on occassion.

The smell on Turkish buses is definitely NOT like cologne......Quite the opposite as a matter of fact.
Crowds there don't smell like cologne either. I can only describe that smell as being similar to the interior of a fishermans boot (who hasn't bathed in a while) in New Jersey on a hot summer day .

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:47 pm

Longhorned wrote:
gumby wrote:
Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?
Sounds fun. Bon voyage!

Nice picture of Kemal Attaturk. He has a very elaborate mausoleum in central Ankara. Sort of like a modern day Pharoah.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:57 pm

dmjcat wrote:
Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?

I actually lived in Turkey for two years.........and I rode the bus on occassion.

The smell on Turkish buses is definitely NOT like cologne......Quite the opposite as a matter of fact.
Crowds there don't smell like cologne either. I can only describe that smell as being similar to the interior of a fishermans boot (who hasn't bathed in a while) in New Jersey on a hot summer day .

I lived in Turkey, too. Twice. And I work there. I'm just typing.

legallykenny · Post by **legallykenny** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:02 pm

SCCats wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:I wonder how much his uncle is cashing in on his salary these days.

When you're making $500K a year pre tax there can't be much to go around.

You said he's on the Jazz roster right? So that means that OKC looked at him for a year in the D league and have already given up on him?

Nick Johnson is the more interesting case. Wonder if we would have enjoyed taking this team to the FF this year and becoming an Arizona immortal next to Sean, Steve and Miles more than bounding between the League and the NBDL for a league minimum salary this year. There were plenty of comments last year about him having nothing to gain by coming back because his weaknesses would just be again exposed. But he also had nothing to lose. That one extra year at the league minimum isn't changing his life and he was going to make the end of someone's roster no matter what happened in his senior year.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:37 pm

legallykenny wrote:
SCCats wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:I wonder how much his uncle is cashing in on his salary these days.

When you're making $500K a year pre tax there can't be much to go around.

You said he's on the Jazz roster right? So that means that OKC looked at him for a year in the D league and have already given up on him?
Nick Johnson is the more interesting case. Wonder if we would have enjoyed taking this team to the FF this year and becoming an Arizona immortal next to Sean, Steve and Miles more than bounding between the League and the NBDL for a league minimum salary this year. There were plenty of comments last year about him having nothing to gain by coming back because his weaknesses would just be again exposed. But he also had nothing to lose. That one extra year at the league minimum isn't changing his life and he was going to make the end of someone's roster no matter what happened in his senior year.

Great point, and if I recall there was parental/family influence on that decision as well.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sun Apr 05, 2015 7:24 am

Interesting thought experiment. Does Nick take the team to a Final Four? It's not a simple matter of plugging him in and everybody else has the same season. Does Stanley commit? Does he come off the bench as a happy contributor? Or is it Rondae who is relegated? Does TJ stay in the leadership shadows? Is he less assertive?

Is the offense better? What about perimeter shooting?

I don't think there were any guarantees of what would happen. Certainly the Kentucky returnees would have an interesting take on that.

RiseAndFire · Post by **RiseAndFire** » Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:49 am

this is a great idea it's very quaint - 1980's quaint. reminiscing about the good ol days is always nice

please!
should Gordon have stayed?
how many millions would he have lost had he injured his foot while playing another year Az not instead of in his rookie year with Orlando as he did? Is the satisfaction of finally beating UCLA and winning a Pac 12 tourney title game that is broadcast at 10Pm eastern worth millions?

I think not

Kaminsky is a "special" case. Any 7' tall man that wears tighty white tights and flops like that isn't right. but playing for a natty he is so his 1-in-50 odds paid off

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sun Apr 05, 2015 8:27 pm

Oh boy. Another Rocky sequel.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Apr 05, 2015 8:35 pm

gumby wrote:Oh boy. Another Rocky sequel.

That's why I have RiseandFire on my foe list.

threenumberones · Post by **threenumberones** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:57 am

gumby wrote:Oh boy. Another Rocky sequel.

Where's Clubber Lang when you need him?

Gato Salvaje · Post by **Gato Salvaje** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:27 am

Longhorned wrote:
dmjcat wrote:
Longhorned wrote:Memo to Impatient Players:

Why put up with this when you can get paid for playing in front of small crowds that smell like cologne between bus rides in Turkey?

I actually lived in Turkey for two years.........and I rode the bus on occassion.

The smell on Turkish buses is definitely NOT like cologne......Quite the opposite as a matter of fact.
Crowds there don't smell like cologne either. I can only describe that smell as being similar to the interior of a fishermans boot (who hasn't bathed in a while) in New Jersey on a hot summer day .
I lived in Turkey, too. Twice. And I work there. I'm just typing.

Ahhhh that's the smell of DESIRE my friend.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:36 am

For as much as Rise and Fire is off, this is one area where he's correct. Fans over romanticize players who stay and point to Frank Kaminsky without remembering that there are tons of seniors who didn't develop like that.

For instance, look at Wisconsin. They had a big guy who played sparingly his first two years, only to get a shot as a junior. When he got into the rotation, he didn't do a ton, but he still plays. Duje Dukan will end his college career at the same time Kaminsky does, with a similar start and a vastly different end.

Fans want players to return because they care about the school. A player has to take care of his own life, and by any stat, returning is not a great decision if you're a top prospect. Zeus would have been top 15 out of HS. The NBA will take a risk on potential, and that is to a player's advantage.

The other class is guys like Nick. All he could have done to improve his stock was grow 4 inches or show off PG skills. He didn't hit a growth spurt and TJ had the point locked down. He mad the right choice from the perspective of his NBA stock.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 8:12 am

Oh, and if I could prevent one guy from last year from leaving, it would have been Gordon, not Nick (and I love Nick). Adding AG to the front court mix would have been scary.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:47 am

There seems to be this idea that people can't (or won't, or won't improve enough) from their junior year to senior year, but I feel like we've seen it lots of times from lots of players. Didn't Salim go from a good player to college God his senior year? I don't remember thinking Soloman would get drafted after his junior year and there he was with a good senior year and getting drafted in the first round.

I feel like there were other examples too: charmin was charmin and then he had a great senior year. Damon was always great but I remember him looking even better as a senior (as far as his abilities) than he did even as a junior in our final four run. Some of this stuff was a while ago, but this idea that you can't get better (or better enough) your senior year seems fairly specious. Some do, some don't; stay, work on your game and find out.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:52 am

I think gumby was also poking at the guys who bail quickly because of playing time/competition as freshmen, such as Craig Victor and Grant Jerrett.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:09 am

Yeah. Kaminsky the example because he didn't start for two years. Otherwise, it's just like all the other stay-or-go discussions. Not a Nick/Aaron thing in the OP.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:17 am

UAEebs86 wrote:I think gumby was also poking at the guys who bail quickly because of playing time/competition as freshmen, such as Craig Victor and Grant Jerrett.

That's definitely an issue too. Similarish issue of people in a rush to get to...where??? It's like the opposite of the Wooden principle be quick but don't rush. Instead it's rush...to nowhere.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:20 am

gumby wrote:Yeah. Kaminsky the example because he didn't start for two years. Otherwise, it's just like all the other stay-or-go discussions. Not a Nick/Aaron thing in the OP.

But applicable to all. It's not rocket science that everyone develops over time, whether it's fresh to soph year or junior to senior year.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:20 am

UAEebs86 wrote:I think gumby was also poking at the guys who bail quickly because of playing time/competition as freshmen, such as Craig Victor and Grant Jerrett.

I like that point more. Staying is a bigger deal for guys who don't initially get the time. Jerrett would have been a huge cog in a tourney run after Ashley went down last year. That's the sort of situation I like better for preaching patience.

Too many people beat the patience drum on everyone (i.e., those who think Stanley should stay).

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:22 am

SCCats wrote:
gumby wrote:Yeah. Kaminsky the example because he didn't start for two years. Otherwise, it's just like all the other stay-or-go discussions. Not a Nick/Aaron thing in the OP.
But applicable to all. It's not rocket science that everyone develops over time, whether it's fresh to soph year or junior to senior year.

Actually, I sort of disagree with this. Regression is a real phenomenon. Development is an individual phenomenon.

Luuuuuuuute · Post by **Luuuuuuuute** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:26 am

One important note about Nick Johnson is that he got a guaranteed contract for 3 years (I think). I can't find the exact figures but one place had it listed as around $2.3 million, with a 4th year option. That's pennies in the world of $100 million deals, but he'll make more in 3 years than most of us will make in our lifetimes. That's hard to pass up for a 21-year-old kid, especially when they've been told from the time they were 12 that they are destined for NBA stardom.

As much as I'd love to have Brandon Ashley and Zeus stay, I won't fault them for wanting to take the next step and take their chances, even if it seems like a bad choice for those of us with nothing more than a rooting interest. Making $200,000 a year, traveling the world in your 20s, and coming back to the U.S. when you're 30 with a nice bank account isn't a bad fallback plan.

Again, it's not NBA money or fame, but still better than most of us will do or have done in our lives. And they get to do it while playing the game they love. I'll miss Ashley as a Wildcat, but I hope he kills it in his workouts and rises up draft boards and makes it in the NBA, it only helps all of us as Wildcats fans to have more guys in the NBA.

BEAR DOWN!

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:32 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
SCCats wrote:
gumby wrote:Yeah. Kaminsky the example because he didn't start for two years. Otherwise, it's just like all the other stay-or-go discussions. Not a Nick/Aaron thing in the OP.
But applicable to all. It's not rocket science that everyone develops over time, whether it's fresh to soph year or junior to senior year.
Actually, I sort of disagree with this. Regression is a real phenomenon. Development is an individual phenomenon.

I disagree with that. It's less regression (although statistically there's probably some) that I see and more sucking that's the real phenomenon. It's getting highly rated in high school against high school competition and being told "Oh you're a five star top 25 player this year, you're the shit!!!" (which is thought to be the end all be all, but if you're closer to #25 it still might not mean a great draft position and possibly not even a first round draft position), but your game doesn't translate to bigger, more athletic players down the line (or was never that good to begin with).

Those guys could go straight to the pros, get picked fringe lottery, make their $4M and put their Ndudi Ebi appearance in with the league. If you suck and you know you suck, that is definitely the route you should take before your miserable game is exposed by decent players.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:41 am

Luuuuuuuute wrote:One important note about Nick Johnson is that he got a guaranteed contract for 3 years (I think). I can't find the exact figures but one place had it listed as around $2.3 million, with a 4th year option. That's pennies in the world of $100 million deals, but he'll make more in 3 years than most of us will make in our lifetimes. That's hard to pass up for a 21-year-old kid, especially when they've been told from the time they were 12 that they are destined for NBA stardom.

Three points:

1. $750K a year gets immediately cut in half by taxes and agent fees. $375K a year pays your expenses nicely, but probably doesn't do much else.

2. Wouldn't our expectation be that he'd have gotten a similar contract the next year?

3. What's the lifetime value, measured in real current dollars (and measure that vis-a-vis what you are going to be saving after your expenses...which is basically zero dollars), of coming back, leading your team to a final four and/or national championship? That's utils you get every day for the rest of your life.

And finally, the bolded is part of the problem. You're the best. No matter what you do you're headed for $100M. You could just not pay attention to anything and stumble into a lifetime of riches.

But that's not how it happens, as probably 50%+ of those five star players find out.

But these things have all been known to outside observers for a long time, and almost nobody has changed their behavior for going on twenty years. So /shrug, bring on the new guys!!!

Making $200,000 a year, traveling the world in your 20s, and coming back to the U.S. when you're 30 with a nice bank account isn't a bad fallback plan.

Making $200K a year, there's no bank account at the end. It's find a $40K a year job time.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:45 am

Renardo Sidney regressed like a monster. Here he is as a junior in HS.

Renardo Sindey 2008 Summer AAU mix: http://youtu.be/bPGQ_NsgZ-U

Here he is a few years later. Don't ask for on court highlights bc they don't really exist.

Mississippi State's Renardo Sidney and Elgin Bail…: http://youtu.be/LLOktTL9xVI

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:56 am

60 percent of NBA players file for bankruptcy five years after retirement

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1085 ... ba-history

splitsecond · Post by **splitsecond** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:20 am

I feel like the easiest way to get people to stay in school would be to show them pictures of Gerald Green. Dude spent a better part of a what, 6 years trolling around Europe because he didn't go to school and listened to an agent. The guy has unbelievable talent and STILL isn't playing to his potential simply because he completely skipped over developing his game to get to the next level.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:33 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Renardo Sidney regressed like a monster. Here he is as a junior in HS.

Renardo Sindey 2008 Summer AAU mix: http://youtu.be/bPGQ_NsgZ-U

Here he is a few years later. Don't ask for on court highlights bc they don't really exist.

Mississippi State's Renardo Sidney and Elgin Bail…: http://youtu.be/LLOktTL9xVI

We can take a look at a couple specific players and see if we can find a trend, but are you sure the first one you want to look at is one of the biggest head cases of the last five years in college basketball?

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:35 am

splitsecond wrote:I feel like the easiest way to get people to stay in school would be to show them pictures of Gerald Green. Dude spent a better part of a what, 6 years trolling around Europe because he didn't go to school and listened to an agent. The guy has unbelievable talent and STILL isn't playing to his potential simply because he completely skipped over developing his game to get to the next level.

Easiest, and probably only, way to get people to stay in school is for the NBA to adopt the same rule the MLB has.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:41 am

splitsecond wrote:I feel like the easiest way to get people to stay in school would be to show them pictures of Gerald Green. Dude spent a better part of a what, 6 years trolling around Europe because he didn't go to school and listened to an agent. The guy has unbelievable talent and STILL isn't playing to his potential simply because he completely skipped over developing his game to get to the next level.

Green only missed two full NBA seasons overseas. I don't think Green is a good example, especially since he has already spent eight seasons in the league. He was drafted out of high school for his athleticism, his size combined with his athleticism, and his upside. Sometimes the upside doesn't happen and sometimes scouts and GMs get things wrong. I remember his limitations young in his career being a Celtics fan and he has actually come a long way from who he was in Boston. I mean, if I told you with the 18th pick in the draft you would be getting a guy at age 28 and 29 averaging 16 and 11 points and shooting 40 and 35 percent from 3, respectively would you take it? The is no guarantee college would have changed the final product of what he is right now either. Lots of guys like him go to college and bust, or arent what everyone thought and end up in the same boat or worse.

At the end of the day, dude has earned over $12 million in the NBA alone and he hasn't even reached age 30 yet.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:43 am

SCCats wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:Renardo Sidney regressed like a monster. Here he is as a junior in HS.

Renardo Sindey 2008 Summer AAU mix: http://youtu.be/bPGQ_NsgZ-U

Here he is a few years later. Don't ask for on court highlights bc they don't really exist.

Mississippi State's Renardo Sidney and Elgin Bail…: http://youtu.be/LLOktTL9xVI
We can take a look at a couple specific players and see if we can find a trend, but are you sure the first one you want to look at is one of the biggest head cases of the last five years in college basketball?

Yes, because my ultimate thought is that whether a player develops, stays static or regresses (and the rate they do it at) is defined by their mindset. Mentally strong hard workers improve. Lazy, entitled, head cases, those guys stay static or regress.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:06 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yes, because my ultimate thought is that whether a player develops, stays static or regresses (and the rate they do it at) is defined by their mindset. Mentally strong hard workers improve. Lazy, entitled, head cases, those guys stay static or regress.

But I think this argument hurts your point; if they are lazy, entitled head cases they were going to do nothing in the NBA just like they did nothing in college. It might seem like they're regressing when they starting playing better competition. But they aren't.

So as was mentioned before, there are a very few people who are 1) lazy, entitled head cases whose game and effort level won't translate to any other level and 2) were lazy, entitled head cases but talented enough to make hay against weak high school competition and thus get rated highly out of high school who should go straight into the draft (or now try to go as soon as possible), try to get their $1M a year for four years, and then disappear from the earth Ndidu Ebi style.

Most others aren't like that. They know they need to work and they do do the work. And they generally get better and better each year.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:25 pm

SCCats wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:Yes, because my ultimate thought is that whether a player develops, stays static or regresses (and the rate they do it at) is defined by their mindset. Mentally strong hard workers improve. Lazy, entitled, head cases, those guys stay static or regress.
But I think this argument hurts your point; if they are lazy, entitled head cases they were going to do nothing in the NBA just like they did nothing in college. It might seem like they're regressing when they starting playing better competition. But they aren't.

So as was mentioned before, there are a very few people who are 1) lazy, entitled head cases whose game and effort level won't translate to any other level and 2) were lazy, entitled head cases but talented enough to make hay against weak high school competition and thus get rated highly out of high school who should go straight into the draft (or now try to go as soon as possible), try to get their $1M a year for four years, and then disappear from the earth Ndidu Ebi style.

Most others aren't like that. They know they need to work and they do do the work. And they generally get better and better each year.

Sidney didn't look worse because of better competition, unless you count Pizza Hut/Dominoes/Little Ceasars/Papa John's as competition. He gained 50 pounds, stopped working on his game, started jacking threes instead of playing in the paint and generally stopped giving a ****. He got wprse.

Sorry to say it, but Jordin Mayes regressed Freshman to Senior year. It happens, and competition is not always the trigger.

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