A co-op community for Arizona Fans
http://beardownwildcats.com/
I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.
It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.
I'm less convinced about Russell, and I see Okafor as a potential star. People rip his D, but it isn't like he can't improve on D as he plays in the pros. Russell was pretty sieve-like on D, so I don't really getting slotting him as higher potential than Okafor based on that factor.rgdeuce wrote:I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.
It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.
I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.rgdeuce wrote:To clarify, those were in addition to Stanley and Okafor. Dont know much about any of the foreign players
Outside of the left-handed shot, size, and statistical similarities, Russell just screams James Harden 2 to me, so I am not really thinking much of him in terms of defense anyhow. I think he will be the best scorer in this class.
Agree w/ all this especially on Russell.I'm just not seeing it with himSpaceman Spiff wrote:I'm less convinced about Russell, and I see Okafor as a potential star. People rip his D, but it isn't like he can't improve on D as he plays in the pros. Russell was pretty sieve-like on D, so I don't really getting slotting him as higher potential than Okafor based on that factor.rgdeuce wrote:I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.
It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.
Mudiay and Porzingis have the superstar tools. I feel better about Mudiay getting there. Porzingis is a boom/bust if I've ever seen one.
Towns and Winslow has the highest floors in the draft. This is an intriguing one because there's a lot of depth.
I remain a fan of the 538 analysis above (homeristically because it rates Arizona players highly). Guys like RHJ and TJ will fall (or not get picked) but a tough guy who can be a good to elite defender has more NBA potential than the draft usually reflects. We tend to produce a few of those guys.
Offensively, they view him as the combo guard who can handle the ball. That type of player who can handle the ball and has good vision, like Russell, typically plays in a PG role.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.rgdeuce wrote:To clarify, those were in addition to Stanley and Okafor. Dont know much about any of the foreign players
Outside of the left-handed shot, size, and statistical similarities, Russell just screams James Harden 2 to me, so I am not really thinking much of him in terms of defense anyhow. I think he will be the best scorer in this class.
Spaceman Spiff wrote: I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.
I don't think anyone sees him as a pure point. I think he is a combo right now, who will become a slightly undersized 2 like Wade or Harden should he not be able to handle extensive point guard duties with several seasons experience or minimal minutes at point early on. I much rather have him playing off the ball myself.Spaceman Spiff wrote:In terms of Russell, I get the Harden comparisons. I just see some Delonte West too. I don't think NBA teams are as averse to combo guards as they were, but Russell has some of the bad qualities associated with combo guards, and he's just not good on D.
If teams are going to put up with subpar D, he'd better be Harden level on offense. I'm not sure he is. Harden is 225, Russell is 180. Neither is super quick, but Harden uses his body really well. Russell still has growing, but right now, he doesn't have a body to use.
I dont think you need another distributor next to him per se (that obviously helps the team overall). You need another guy who can attack the basket and defend PGs and SGs next to him. If that player cant shoot, then you need a SF/PF who can stretch the floor.Spaceman Spiff wrote:TucsonClip, I'd always seen Russell as a natural 2 who can pass and handle better than most 2's, not as a scoring PG. Maybe that's just my vision, but I think if he's slotted in that role, he needs to be paired with a 2 who is a good distributor, otherwise you get a backcourt that is really ball dominant. Defensively, he needs a good running mate.
I wouldn't be shocked if we had two guys drafted, and wouldn't be shocked if we had four drafted. Neither Ash or TJ is nailed down in terms of position. I hear a lot of SJ to the Heat buzz, which would be a decent landing spot. Rondae, I just hope he gets a team that is defense first.
No way.3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
I thought it seems unlikely.Hobbes wrote:No way.3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
I have a really hard time seeing Dekker and Hunter (among others) jump Stan. The big guy/little guy dynamic is always an unknown, because you don't know what teams are drafting for, but those guys are in direct comparison to Stan, and unless SJ is falling hard, I don't see how they overtake him.3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
If he slips to 15 someone is getting an amazing value.3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
WOW Wishful thinking! I hope you are correct!Jefe wrote:My guesses:
Stan 9th
Rondae 19th
Brandon 40th
TJ 44th
I wouldnt be shocked if TJ goes over BASH. BASH def shouldve stayed on more year and to get the degree he is going to need.84Cat wrote:Latest Draftexpress as of yesterday:
SJ 8th to Detroit
RHJ 22nd to Chicago
TJ & BA undrafted
I think this is about right.Jefe wrote:My guesses:
Stan 9th
Rondae 19th
Brandon 40th
TJ 44th
Wright is a guy who will never be a star but could be a rotation guy for the next ten years. He seems like the kind of guy the Spurs would be all over. Super high efficiency and multiskilled. If he falls in that range, he is a steal.SCCats wrote:If he slips to 15 someone is getting an amazing value.3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.
http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
Just from watching the five minute or so Porzingas tape that he put out a couple weeks ago, I thought he could eventually end up being considered a bust at the 8th pick in the draft. At potentially 2,3, or 4 in the draft he would seem to have a significant chance of being eventually considered a bust.
Oh and I love SI's talk about Delon Wright being a sleeper in the 25-30 area. Teams in that area are generally pretty talented so they might not necessarily be looking for an immediate starter at that pick, be Delon is 1) a very good player who 2) isn't some 19 year old punk and who 3) can probably give you minutes at the 1, 2 or 3 which can be very, very valuable considering they'd only be paying him about a million dollars a year for four years.
I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”
Brandon Ashley, 6’9” forward, Arizona: “I’m just not sold on him. He shows you flashes, but he’s been the same player since I first saw him four or five years ago. He’s a good enough shooter that you’ve got to honor it. He’s a tease. Somebody will take him in the second round off height and talent, but I don’t think he plays in the NBA right now.”
Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”
His shot is flat and his release point is low. Thats an easy fix. He shot 74% from the line, hit a lot of pull up mid-range jumpers and proved that he can connect on the corner 3. I dont have much of an issue with his jumper at all as its something that will be tweaked over a few summers.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.azcat34 wrote: Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”
The rest isn't particularly surprising.
I agree. Rondae needs to develop a jumper. Stanley needs to refine his jumper.TucsonClip wrote:His shot is flat and his release point is low. Thats an easy fix. He shot 74% from the line, hit a lot of pull up mid-range jumpers and proved that he can connect on the corner 3. I dont have much of an issue with his jumper at all as its something that will be tweaked over a few summers.Spaceman Spiff wrote:I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.azcat34 wrote: Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”
The rest isn't particularly surprising.
His mid-range game impressed me. He draws fouls and he has the ability to create off the dribble. That is the top skill in the NBA. Players who can create their own shot and draw fouls are as valuable as any. SJ can be that kind of guy down the road.
This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”
You don't develop a J during games. You do get a guaranteed contract if you go first round.SCCats wrote:This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”
That to me just seems like a huge risk to take when you didn't need to take the risk at all and could instead have come back to Arizona for another year and continue to be developed and take your time to work on these things so you know you're ready, not just hope you're ready.
Yes, Rondae is exactly the type of guy you want on your team during a crucial playoff game. Now, if he cant shoot he isnt going to play more than 15 minutes, but you also put him in a lineup to succeed and where he can make an impact off the bench defensively.SCCats wrote:
This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?
That to me just seems like a huge risk to take when you didn't need to take the risk at all and could instead have come back to Arizona for another year and continue to be developed and take your time to work on these things so you know you're ready, not just hope you're ready.
Let me ask you this...SCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.
People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?
Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?
If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.
So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Bov7AIaGMwSCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.
People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?
Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?
If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.
So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.
Been saying that for a long time, my friend. Good find, I will have to give that a read.Spaceman Spiff wrote:https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Bov7AIaGMwSCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.
People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?
Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?
If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.
So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.
That's a statistical analysis of early entry, earning potential and player production.
It's a nice confirmation of something I've pointed out for a while. There is no convincing correlation between more years in college and success as an NBA player or greater earnings. It is about the individual, not how many years in college they spend.
Too often, fans preach about staying as if it is a magic bullet. It isn't.
Yes. And if he can't get as good as he needs in one year, he's got another left to keep working on it.Do you think Rondae can improve his jumper (and overall game) enough next season at Arizona that he climbs into the top 10?
I would say that's probably already how they see him.Now weigh the possibility that his jumper doesnt improve and teams just begin to see him as a back of the first round defender who plays really hard.
I see the difference between a four year 6 million, 4 year 5 million and 4 year 4 million contract as negligible. So for me the difference between potentially getting picked 22 this year and 26th next year would not be a worry.Is the risk of jumping 5-10 spots worth risking falling to the back of the 1st?
This is a mistake in mindset I think people make: the clock is largely unimportant. As far as your life goes, 5 years 50 million is going to feel very similar to 6 years 60 million. It's the getting of the second massive contract that's important. Everything should be put towards getting that second contract.Rondae declaring now starts the clock on his second contract, which means a large payday.
He'll likely be in the league ten years. It's just hugely different to make 2 million a year in those last six years after your rookie contract versus 10 million+ a year in the six years after your rookie contract. Just being there isn't the important thing; you don't want to be eating the scraps, you want the full meal.I dont see him flopping out of the league because of his athleticism, length and defense.
Again for me the exact placement is of much less importance. Being the best basketball player you can be and being just as ready as you can possibly be is what I think is important. I want the team that drafts me to see me come into our first day of practice and say "Your game is great. You're a starter. Already we can't wait to give you a huge extension."So again, is it really worth the risk of an additional year for scouts to pick you apart, risk injury and push your big payday back a year just to move up 5-10 spots?
Different people look at the same situation and see different risks and rewards. It happens all the time.To me the answer is clearly no.
52 pages? Did you read all that??
There is no convincing correlation between more years in college and success as an NBA player or greater earnings. It is about the individual, not how many years in college they spend.
I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.
Seriously, read my links. I read both in full, and really ALL statistical data either shows no correlation or that the earlier a player enters the draft, the better he does.SCCats wrote:I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.
The risk reward looks fubar. You're risking dollars in an attempt to grab a couple extra pennies.
Are you really trying to convince people here that Rondae has a better chance of improving his jump shot in college (when he is part-time athlete part-time student) than he does on an NBA roster with better shooting coaches and more time spent every day on his craft?SCCats wrote:I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.
The risk reward looks fubar. You're risking dollars in an attempt to grab a couple extra pennies.