Bear Down Wildcats

We have Ristic, Victor, SJ, Allen and PJC coming in.

I'd be surprised if we didn't get some rotation minutes from at least 4. SJ is the sure thing, but the rest would be competing for backup minutes. Given our need for backup bigs and a backup PG, which aren't going to be filled by returners, I can't see less than 3 getting time unless we revert back to the tiny bench of last year.

I know I'm in the minority, but I think Allen is the most likely to fall out, and that's just due to direct competition with York, Pitts and to a lesser extent, PJC.

sj will be a starter. i think allen and victor get 8-10 minutes each. ristic maybe around 5 minutes or less a game. tj will be playing a good 33-35 minutes a game.

I think Stanley starts. The other 4? Don't know - for this year.

As I am the only one on this OR the other forum(s) that takes the time to follow JUCO BB, Kadeem could be Nick Johnson good, or a flame. I lean toward Nick, or a Arenas Frosh. type player. His defense will give him some PT.

I don't follow JC ball at all, not even locally, but looking at the highlight reels Allen seems to be playing a bunch of high school level kids.

Going to be a major adjustment for him to play at upper Div I level speed. He was never that great of shooter in JC from 3 point range (30.5%) and playing for Arizona he won't be getting near the open looks. Look how TJ's 3 point shooting suffered going from Duquesne to Arizona.

Cats need a 3 point shooter at the 2G who can nail 35-40%.

So I don't expect much out of Allen this year unless PJC redshirts and Kadeem gets some combo guard minutes. He did average 5.9 APG last year. Don't be a chucker at PG like Momo and Lyons though.

I'm hoping Ristic gets 10 mpg to keep Zeus fresh.

That's my thing with Allen. He's competing for a backup role and was a scorer without being a very good distance shooter. A low efficiency scorer is very low value in a reserve role, especially when Pitts and York are in competition with him and have shown they can stroke it from deep.

We need PJC or Allen to back TJ up. I don't think we want to make TJ play 35 a night until it's necessary. Riding him that hard all year is a bad plan for a number of reasons.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:That's my thing with Allen. He's competing for a backup role and was a scorer without being a very good distance shooter. A low efficiency scorer is very low value in a reserve role, especially when Pitts and York are in competition with him and have shown they can stroke it from deep.

We need PJC or Allen to back TJ up. I don't think we want to make TJ play 35 a night until it's necessary. Riding him that hard all year is a bad plan for a number of reasons.

What exactly is your definition of a low efficiency scorer exactly? Just because he's only a 30% shooter from deep doesn't remotely make him a low efficiency scorer. That's as asinine of a belief as you can get.

Any guard that shoots 46% from the field despite a pedestrian 3 point percentage, while going to the line for 371 free throws in 33 games is hardly an inefficient scorer. There was only one player in the entirety of DIvision I to shoot over 300 FT attempts this past season and he shot less than Allen did in the same amount of games. In comparison our Conference Player of the year 2 guard merely shot 43% from the field and only attempted 187 free throws, but hey he did shoot 37% from 3.

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:That's my thing with Allen. He's competing for a backup role and was a scorer without being a very good distance shooter. A low efficiency scorer is very low value in a reserve role, especially when Pitts and York are in competition with him and have shown they can stroke it from deep.

We need PJC or Allen to back TJ up. I don't think we want to make TJ play 35 a night until it's necessary. Riding him that hard all year is a bad plan for a number of reasons.

What exactly is your definition of a low efficiency scorer exactly? Just because he's only a 30% shooter from deep doesn't remotely make him a low efficiency scorer. That's as asinine of a belief as you can get.

Taking a lot of shots to get points. He won't be able to penetrate nearly as well against higher level competition. So, you need to be able to make shots, and shooting the three is a big deal for a small guard.

If you think I'm making asinine points, I'll call your points a miasma of obtuseness. I wholeheartedly support founding this board on building vocabulary.

Expecting alot: Stanley Johnson

Expecting a contribution: Victor & Allen

Not expecting much: Ristic, PJC

Spaceman Spiff wrote:

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:That's my thing with Allen. He's competing for a backup role and was a scorer without being a very good distance shooter. A low efficiency scorer is very low value in a reserve role, especially when Pitts and York are in competition with him and have shown they can stroke it from deep.

We need PJC or Allen to back TJ up. I don't think we want to make TJ play 35 a night until it's necessary. Riding him that hard all year is a bad plan for a number of reasons.

What exactly is your definition of a low efficiency scorer exactly? Just because he's only a 30% shooter from deep doesn't remotely make him a low efficiency scorer. That's as asinine of a belief as you can get.

Taking a lot of shots to get points. He won't be able to penetrate nearly as well against higher level competition. So, you need to be able to make shots, and shooting the three is a big deal for a small guard.

If you think I'm making asinine points, I'll call your points a miasma of obtuseness. I wholeheartedly support founding this board on building vocabulary.

If you're taking a lot of shots and hitting 46% of them while going to the line 371 times you're far from hurting your team and truthfully are being damn proficient at getting your team points. It's not like he's putting up tons of shots and shooting terribly from the field, he's far from doing that, plus he's not a small guard. 6'3 190 isn't small for a Division I guard. If you want to talk about inefficient offense let's look at Gabe York's FG percentage on shots that weren't 3 pointers or lay ups. Hell let's look at Gabe's FG percentage in general.

I'm obtuse, you're asinine, whatever. Still a ridiculous take in every sense of the word.

Thus my point about it being a lot harder to get to the rim at this level. That's where that fg% and the ft# come from, driving the ball. He won't be doing that near as much here.

Olsondogg wrote:Expecting alot: Stanley Johnson

Expecting a contribution: Victor & Allen

Not expecting much: Ristic, PJC

This.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Thus my point about it being a lot harder to get to the rim at this level. That's where that fg% and the ft# come from, driving the ball. He won't be doing that near as much here.

Is there a statistically calculated reason for this or are you just going to defer to the cop out excuse that he will no longer be playing JUCO ball so he won't be able to draw fouls anymore?

Gato loves to fighto...

But I agree with him in this tiff.

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Thus my point about it being a lot harder to get to the rim at this level. That's where that fg% and the ft# come from, driving the ball. He won't be doing that near as much here.

Is there a statistically calculated reason for this or are you just going to defer to the cop out excuse that he will no longer be playing JUCO ball so he won't be able to draw fouls anymore?

Is there ever a statistically calculated projection of how players respond to another level of competition?

For my money, no. You can use stats, but translating them to the next level is an exercise in individual projection. I worry about how a listed 6'3 guard who relies on pent ration and drawing fouls translates that to a much higher level of competition.

I'm not saying it isn't a possibility, but when you have to beat out experienced wings, it needs to be more than possible.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Thus my point about it being a lot harder to get to the rim at this level. That's where that fg% and the ft# come from, driving the ball. He won't be doing that near as much here.

Is there a statistically calculated reason for this or are you just going to defer to the cop out excuse that he will no longer be playing JUCO ball so he won't be able to draw fouls anymore?

Is there ever a statistically calculated projection of how players respond to another level of competition?

For my money, no. You can use stats, but translating them to the next level is an exercise in individual projection. I worry about how a listed 6'3 guard who relies on pent ration and drawing fouls translates that to a much higher level of competition.

I'm not saying it isn't a possibility, but when you have to beat out experienced wings, it needs to be more than possible.

A foul on the JUCO level is the same as a foul on the Division I level. Also another one of his strengths is Gabe York's kryptonite and that's mid range jumpers.

Allen may not get the same calls in Div I as a role player as he received last year as the JC NPOY.

Merkin wrote:Allen may not get the same calls in Div I as a role player as he received last year as the JC NPOY.

It may not be as easy to break down D1 players. That's my larger concern. Creating fouls is a matter of getting to the rim and transition opportunities in major part. We don't run a ton, and it won't be as easy to get to the rim as in Juco.

Brusque -- "blunt in manner or speech often to the point of ungracious harshness."

Just adding to the vocab.

This debate is contributing to my overall feeling of ennui this summer. I hope I don't succumb.

Unless this highlight video contains the only mid range jumpers he hit it doesn't appear he only drives to the hoop. Either way with the moves he does make driving to the hoop I doubt much of his effectiveness would change jumping from JUCO to Division I. Not many guys would be able to stop some of those drives.

[youtube]caSOc-pyqY0[/youtube]

Allen will surprise many this year. Myself, not included. Allen was a stud in JUCO and will be a stud in D1. Just like Stanley was a stud in high school, he will also be a stud in D1. Allen will play big minutes this season as he can play and defend positions 1-3. I suspect he will start off a little slow but once he becomes confident he should be a real force come Conference play.

If we're just judging on hl vids vs inferior competition, I don't see how Gabe York doesn't win in a landslide over Allen. Sicker beats, mad ups and hashtags.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:If we're just judging on hl vids vs inferior competition, I don't see how Gabe York doesn't win in a landslide over Allen. Sicker beats, mad ups and hashtags.

Did Gabe ever hit a mid range jumper in any highlight reel? All I remember is 3s and dunks, which is all he's done here.

Every prospect plays against inferior competition before they get to Arizona, that's not a new development. It also hasn't meant in the past they will be ineffective.

So it's looking like Gabe vs. KA will be one of the biggest battles for PT this year. If our starting backcourt is TJ and SJ, that leaves Gabe, KA, and Pitts competing for time as backups. Not even sure where this leaves PJC. We'll have a lot of guard depth this season.

ElGatoBlanco wrote: Every prospect plays against inferior competition before they get to Arizona, that's not a new development. It also hasn't meant in the past they will be ineffective.

This. It all comes down to practice.

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:If we're just judging on hl vids vs inferior competition, I don't see how Gabe York doesn't win in a landslide over Allen. Sicker beats, mad ups and hashtags.

Did Gabe ever hit a mid range jumper in any highlight reel? All I remember is 3s and dunks, which is all he's done here.

Every prospect plays against inferior competition before they get to Arizona, that's not a new development. It also hasn't meant in the past they will be ineffective.

That's where projections come in and we circle back to our previous argument. Some people make the jump, some don't. I question whether Allen is a good enough shooter to make that jump.

Some things translate better than others. Physical advantages would be the least transferable, and that's why I worry about him not being able to knock down the 3. Getting to the hole or creating midrange space is harder.

Just seems odd that Miller would go after a guy who stands little chance of contributing as a junior. Seems to suggest it was a mistake to begin with. Could be, I suppose. But I think he'll be an important cog.

Defense is where Miller looks first, so if he can guard, he will play.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:If we're just judging on hl vids vs inferior competition, I don't see how Gabe York doesn't win in a landslide over Allen. Sicker beats, mad ups and hashtags.

Did Gabe ever hit a mid range jumper in any highlight reel? All I remember is 3s and dunks, which is all he's done here.

Every prospect plays against inferior competition before they get to Arizona, that's not a new development. It also hasn't meant in the past they will be ineffective.

That's where projections come in and we circle back to our previous argument. Some people make the jump, some don't. I question whether Allen is a good enough shooter to make that jump.

Some things translate better than others. Physical advantages would be the least transferable, and that's why I worry about him not being able to knock down the 3. Getting to the hole or creating midrange space is harder.

You're aware that he was a good prospect coming out of HS as well right? He's not on some fluke run by dominating JUCO. The offensive system creates midrange space as well you know.

ElGatoBlanco wrote:

Spaceman Spiff wrote:

ElGatoBlanco wrote:
Did Gabe ever hit a mid range jumper in any highlight reel? All I remember is 3s and dunks, which is all he's done here.

Every prospect plays against inferior competition before they get to Arizona, that's not a new development. It also hasn't meant in the past they will be ineffective.

That's where projections come in and we circle back to our previous argument. Some people make the jump, some don't. I question whether Allen is a good enough shooter to make that jump.

Some things translate better than others. Physical advantages would be the least transferable, and that's why I worry about him not being able to knock down the 3. Getting to the hole or creating midrange space is harder.

You're aware that he was a good prospect coming out of HS as well right? He's not on some fluke run by dominating JUCO. The offensive system creates midrange space as well you know.

Pitts and York weren't chopped liver out of HS either. I'm not saying he can't play. I'm saying the position is jammed, and I think as the only newcomer, he needs to be more efficient to win a PT battle.

We have good players who may not see the court next year.

I think we see more bench contributions early in the season. As always, that roster will be pared down as the postseason arrives. I think PJC, York, Pitts, Allen and Victor all get some quality run and developmental time. I have no idea what to expect from Ristic. I don't expect Korchek to ever play a vital role, even as a backup.

Hoping that KA can be our instant offense off the bench (a la Jamal Crawford) if we get stagnant like we did at times last year. Also, hopefully Stan helps us there as a better offensive player (not better athlete) than AG. I'm very excited about a Junior year from both our front court starters, and a Sophomore year from RHJ.

I seriously can not wait for this season to start. I've been listening to all of my UK fan friends talk about how good they are going to be. And I feel like Just look at them like this...

thenewazcats wrote:I think we see more bench contributions early in the season. As always, that roster will be pared down as the postseason arrives. I think PJC, York, Pitts, Allen and Victor all get some quality run and developmental time. I have no idea what to expect from Ristic. I don't expect Korchek to ever play a vital role, even as a backup.

I also hope Miller takes the approach of playing a longer branch and tightening as the season progresses. I love Miller, but doing the opposite last year put some heavy mileage on people and left us less prepared when Ashley went down.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:I also hope Miller takes the approach of playing a longer branch and tightening as the season progresses. I love Miller, but doing the opposite last year put some heavy mileage on people and left us less prepared when Ashley went down.

This!