Pac-12 Expectations To Start 2018-19 Season

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:55 pm

The regular season starts tomorrow so all the many and various preseason polls are now in. There are five that I have found that rate all 353 D1 teams - Sagarin, Pomeroy, Sports Illustrated, Team Rankings Predictive and Massey Composite (itself is a compilation of 12 rankings). Here is how the Pac-12 teams stack up using a mean of those rankings:

21 Oregon
34 UCLA
50 Washington
54 Arizona
55 USC
57 Tempe Normal
72 Utah
79 Colorado
91 Oregon State
100 Stanford
165 California
196 Washington State

As a rule of thumb teams above 56 generally make the NCAA's with an automatic or at-large bid.
Likewise, teams above 90 generally make the postseason NIT Tournament.

If the consensus of the prognosticators is correct it appears to me that:
Oregon, UCLA and Washington are destined to go dancing. Arizona, USC, and the Normal School are NCAA "bubble teams" One will probably make it and the other two will earn home games in the other tournament. Utah and Colorado will open on the road in the NIT. OSU is on the NIT bubble. Stanford, Cal and WSU can always look forward to next year. YMMV

As an aside, of the two dozen preseason rankings that I have seen only the Sporting News (25) and Lindy's (16) have the Wildcats ranked in their Top 25.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:11 pm

Lindy's has us at 16, eh? Either they think Ayton's still in school, or they think our new players are going to hit the ground running.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:56 pm

i think the OP is solid, and probably echos my thoughts on AZ.

the cats have two players in Williams and Randolph who can make the difference.

AZ should be better than most think and not as good as Lindys...

this years AZ edition, better at the point of attack and weaker at the rim and backboards - excited for a new season.

Go Cats!!

RichardCranium · Post by **RichardCranium** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:24 pm

Yeah, I never expected the Cats to start the season in anybody's top 25. But I think they are going to be much better than 54.

I'm looking at being definitely in the fight for the PAC12 flag, possibly a Pac12 championship, with a little luck and for sure going dancing.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:56 am

I'm just hoping this team will be a major pain in higher-ranked teams' asses.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:47 am

Right on the tournament bubble is also where I see us. Things go right, we make it. Things don't, we don't.

We'll know by the time conference play starts if we have an at large chance. The Pac isn't strong enough to overcome a disappointing OOC.

EOCT · Post by **EOCT** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:34 pm

Longhorned wrote:I'm just hoping this team will be a major pain in higher-ranked teams' asses.

Welcome back you rascal!

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:02 pm

Auburn is destroying UW's zone. Up 33-16.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:15 pm

Long beach state up on ucla 11 9.

Edit, 32 27,
Cal is down to Yale,
Wash got woodshedded

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:02 pm

Here's my update: the Pac-12 is worse than I expected.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:27 pm

It's an absolute pipe dream, but then again that is what pipes are for, but I would love to beat both Gon2zaga and Dook in that holiday turn-a-mint thing we are supposed to go to...that would be the ultimate FUCK YOU to Espn and Vitale...if there is a god, I would gladly sacrifice a goat to please let me know...

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:38 pm

YoDeFoe wrote:Here's my update: the Pac-12 is worse than I expected.

Yep. I think Oregon will be very good by March, and UCLA isn't at full strength yet. But beyond those two, no one has looked tourney-bound. Still really early.

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:20 am

i expect us to win the pac12

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:41 am

PieceOfMeat wrote:i expect us to win the pac12 every year

Edited for you.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am

CatFanOneMil wrote:I would love to beat both Gon2zaga and Dook

CatFanOneMil wrote:It's an absolute pipe dream

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:10 pm

YoDeFoe wrote:
CatFanOneMil wrote:I would love to beat both Gon2zaga and Dook

CatFanOneMil wrote:It's an absolute pipe dream

I'm opimistic, but taking out two preseason top five teams this early is REALLY optimistic.

I care more about beating ISU and getting matchups that help our SOS and having those be learning experiences. A single win would be huge.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
YoDeFoe wrote:
CatFanOneMil wrote:I would love to beat both Gon2zaga and Dook

CatFanOneMil wrote:It's an absolute pipe dream
I'm opimistic, but taking out two preseason top five teams this early is REALLY optimistic.

I care more about beating ISU and getting matchups that help our SOS and having those be learning experiences. A single win would be huge.

Beating ISU, being competitive against Gonzaga, and pulling a hail Mary against Auburn is the best case scenario in Maui honestly.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:04 pm

Last year, we were heavy favorites to reach the Bahamas final, and we saw how that turned out. Maybe we catch some of these giants asleep at the wheel. I really wanna see Zaga and Duke. We still owe Zaga payback from ‘16 when they got us at Staples.

cats101 · Post by **cats101** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:15 pm

I think UA may be able to give Gonzaga a game, however, Duke, I'm not seeing it.

Need to beat ISU first though. Baylor isn't looking so hot, so they need as many wins in Maui as possible.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:11 pm

ChooChooCat wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote: I'm opimistic, but taking out two preseason top five teams this early is REALLY optimistic.

I care more about beating ISU and getting matchups that help our SOS and having those be learning experiences. A single win would be huge.
Beating ISU, being competitive against Gonzaga, and pulling a hail Mary against Auburn is the best case scenario in Maui honestly.

I'm right here.

goslingswagg · Post by **goslingswagg** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:47 am

ChooChooCat wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
YoDeFoe wrote:
CatFanOneMil wrote:I would love to beat both Gon2zaga and Dook

CatFanOneMil wrote:It's an absolute pipe dream
I'm opimistic, but taking out two preseason top five teams this early is REALLY optimistic.

I care more about beating ISU and getting matchups that help our SOS and having those be learning experiences. A single win would be huge.
Beating ISU, being competitive against Gonzaga, and pulling a hail Mary against Auburn is the best case scenario in Maui honestly.

Agreed, although I'm pulling for a Xavier win in round 1 against Auburn so we can have a more realistic chance of going 2-1.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Yeah nothing in my "hope" column is based on reality, but honestly last year the train wreck was not expected either...

Black Swans exist, ask Nassim Taleb.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:58 pm

Is it wrong to think/feel/hope we rise to the occasion and win the WDT?

I dunnot; the lack of a defined playmaker this early might be a benefit lending to bear down batten down the hatches team ball.

But what do I know.

Go cats!

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:06 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:Is it wrong to think/feel/hope we rise to the occasion and win the WDT?

I dunnot; the lack of a defined playmaker this early might be a benefit lending to bear down batten down the hatches team ball.

But what do I know.

Go cats!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-hDl6OALv4" target="_blank

prh · Post by **prh** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:06 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:Is it wrong to think/feel/hope we rise to the occasion and win the WDT?

I dunnot; the lack of a defined playmaker this early might be a benefit lending to bear down batten down the hatches team ball.

But what do I know.

Go cats!

I always expect us to win the Pac12, and I've not seen enough this year to change my mind.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:49 pm

prh wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:Is it wrong to think/feel/hope we rise to the occasion and win the WDT?

I dunnot; the lack of a defined playmaker this early might be a benefit lending to bear down batten down the hatches team ball.

But what do I know.

Go cats!
I always expect us to win the Pac12, and I've not seen enough this year to change my mind.

I totally agree... not saying I will be upset if we don't.... but why not.... none of the other PAC schools really scares me

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:18 pm

Alieberman wrote:
prh wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:Is it wrong to think/feel/hope we rise to the occasion and win the WDT?

I dunnot; the lack of a defined playmaker this early might be a benefit lending to bear down batten down the hatches team ball.

But what do I know.

Go cats!
I always expect us to win the Pac12, and I've not seen enough this year to change my mind.
I totally agree... not saying I will be upset if we don't.... but why not.... none of the other PAC schools really scares me

Pac 12 is very under-whelming this year...or as they say on the talkie thing "It's a down year in the Pac"...

Watched Furd get whooped by NC...and then Cal lost to....

Yale...

Fucking Yale...Washington/USC/Utah all have losses and we haven't even started the "real" games yet...

If there was ever a year to get sanctioned this would be it.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:30 pm

USC played six deep and lost at home to Vanderbilt on Sunday. No one Trojan contributed more than 2 assists (because remember, Derryck Thornton is their "PG"). Kevin Porter is the truth and Andy Enfield will fuck that up.

UW got murdered at Auburn and barely escaped Kenpom #104 San Diego at home (because they returned everyone from a NIT team and I thought that was a good thing). Senior PG David Crisp continues to be a mediocre SG shoehorned into a PG role.

UCLA had a scare against Long Beach State in a game that Jaylen Hands started but played only the sixth most minutes (22min) while the opposing PG put up a career high 31pts (somehow this close-out was ineffective).

ASU has a real good prospect in Luguentz Dort, who held the aforementioned LBSU guard to just nine points after his career high at Pauley. Dort set his own scoring record in the game prior, setting the freshman record in his season opener... though going to double OT sure helped. Which is a great segue into the fact that ASU needed 2OT to put away Cal State Fullerton at home in their opener.

Colorado somehow hasn't played yet.

Utah will look to ride Sedrick Barefield's shoulders and he's slumping out of the gates.

Oregon looks great against early competition.

Can we win the conference? Well... everyone outside of Oregon looks pretty ragged. We should be able to get to number two, but I doubt that'll be as close to number one as it sounds. Maybe they rest in the Pac-12 tourney final and the Pac-12 gets a second bid.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:09 pm

The more I read this, the more frustrated I become over last year. Damn, if Brandon Williams was at the point a year ago I can't imagine how good we would have been. Totally different team. And yet we still won the regular season & conference titles.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:56 pm

The only game on the schedule that is going to be really tough to win will be @ Oregon, but then again, that game is always tough. I was hoping for more early season wins from our conference rivals to artificially inflate the perceived strength of our conference, but.... We need to win a lot of games.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:07 pm

Arizona is going to be better than most people think this year

goslingswagg · Post by **goslingswagg** » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:06 am

97cats wrote:Arizona is going to be better than most people think this year

Preach

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:14 am

One week into the new season: the Pac-12 is 20-5 overall, 0-4 against top 50 teams and 14-10 ATS (Oregon & Stanford are +2 ATS while Utah is -2). Washington is the only team with a top 100 SOS. Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and OSU have a lower than 300 SOS. Early computer rankings suggest that the conference will have three, and no more than four, bids to the NCAA's. With all that being said, everything is subject to change as the season progresses.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:43 am

KaibabKat wrote:One week into the new season: the Pac-12 is 20-5 overall, 0-4 against top 50 teams and 14-10 ATS (Oregon & Stanford are +2 ATS while Utah is -2). Washington is the only team with a top 100 SOS. Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and OSU have a lower than 300 SOS. Early computer rankings suggest that the conference will have three, and no more than four, bids to the NCAA's. With all that being said, everything is subject to change as the season progresses.

The three most significant games for the Pac 12 have been USC vs. Vandy, UW at Auburn & Utah at Minnesota. OOC road losses against top 100 teams isn't disastrous. But the Pac absolutely needed USC to win at home vs. Vandy. Those are the losses that kill our conference. And it's games like this that caused USC to miss the tourney last year. Naturally, USC will be very difficult in conference play but my disdain for that program is growing because they do nothing to help the Pac's overall profile. (and their coach is a bit of an ass).

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:05 pm

zonagrad wrote:
KaibabKat wrote:One week into the new season: the Pac-12 is 20-5 overall, 0-4 against top 50 teams and 14-10 ATS (Oregon & Stanford are +2 ATS while Utah is -2). Washington is the only team with a top 100 SOS. Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and OSU have a lower than 300 SOS. Early computer rankings suggest that the conference will have three, and no more than four, bids to the NCAA's. With all that being said, everything is subject to change as the season progresses.
The three most significant games for the Pac 12 have been USC vs. Vandy, UW at Auburn & Utah at Minnesota. OOC road losses against top 100 teams isn't disastrous. But the Pac absolutely needed USC to win at home vs. Vandy. Those are the losses that kill our conference. And it's games like this that caused USC to miss the tourney last year. Naturally, USC will be very difficult in conference play but my disdain for that program is growing because they do nothing to help the Pac's overall profile. (and their coach is a bit of an ass).

USC needs Elijah Weaver to be an All Conference Freshman and take over the PG duties if they're going to be more than randomly dangerous. That teams is trash with Derryck Thornton running it.

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:18 pm

Oregon getting wrecked by Iowa. Not sure who on their team is supposed to be awesome, I see no one that is scary. Pritchard is like Barcello and Bol Bol is super soft.

cats101 · Post by **cats101** » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:24 pm

Bol Bol is built like a noodle. Yeesh. Pac 12 being Pac 12 in non conference play

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:37 pm

97cats wrote:Arizona is going to be better than most people think this year

Arizona is not going to be better than I think this year

Sean Miller will be Coach of the year.

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:57 pm

enfuego · Post by **enfuego** » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:10 pm

YoDeFoe wrote:Here's my update: the Pac-12 is worse than I expected.

Oregon (even if they get their injured freshman star back) and Washington are hot garbage. Pac-12 may be a one bid conference this year. Pac-12 winner gets the invite.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:40 am

enfuego wrote:
YoDeFoe wrote:Here's my update: the Pac-12 is worse than I expected.
Oregon (even if they get their injured freshman star back) and Washington are hot garbage. Pac-12 may be a one bid conference this year. Pac-12 winner gets the invite.

Good luck vs. ASU this year.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:16 am

I know I'm a bit silly for posting on my Arizona bball board all the time. It's my fandom, I'm okay with that.

But goddamn I'd be one pathetic motherfucker if I was over on someone else's board bitching about their team for years on end. Like, something really bad must have happened in my life for me to end up in that shitty spot.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:21 am

Lol. Truth YDF

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:31 am

YoDeFoe wrote:I know I'm a bit silly for posting on my Arizona bball board all the time. It's my fandom, I'm okay with that.

But goddamn I'd be one pathetic motherfucker if I was over on someone else's board bitching about their team for years on end. Like, something really bad must have happened in my life for me to end up in that shitty spot.

Truth.

If you feel the need to go on a board for a team that you hate and post all the time the problem is squarely between your own ears...seek professional help immediately.

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