LUCK
Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:08 am
We talk about luck being a factor in tournament wins. Has any team been luckier than VA? They should have lost both those games. Luck is sometimes the biggest factor.
My biggest takeaway is about how different the narrative would be if their luck changed. If UVA doesn't get luck in the Elite Eight, the narrative is about how Bennett underachieves and the packline can't win the big one.psiclist23 wrote:We talk about luck being a factor in tournament wins. Has any team been luckier than VA? They should have lost both those games. Luck is sometimes the biggest factor.
Even the Final Four win... not sure Bennett would have lived down dropping a ten point lead late in that game. Sure, he'd have hung a FF banner, but he'd have been on the doorstep to the promised land and just fell on his ass. "Choke artist" ... "cursed" ..."can't get over the hump." You can hear it how he'd have gotten dogged.Spaceman Spiff wrote:My biggest takeaway is about how different the narrative would be if their luck changed. If UVA doesn't get luck in the Elite Eight, the narrative is about how Bennett underachieves and the packline can't win the big one.psiclist23 wrote:We talk about luck being a factor in tournament wins. Has any team been luckier than VA? They should have lost both those games. Luck is sometimes the biggest factor.
Two miracles and an OT win and they're national champs.
I agree. In Auburn and Tech's case ‘shoulda won’ would be 'shouldn't have shot myself in the foot'.97cats wrote:when I see the comment ‘shoulda won’ from the losing team I always cringe.
Trier, Markkanen, PJC, YorkCalStateTempe wrote:With VA shooting the three, my thoughts most shots where “automatic”
Can’t remember the last time we had that. Salim?
Put that one on Alkins's broken hand. Shouldn't have been 4 v 5 out there.CalStateTempe wrote:Not when it counted.
Tourney history 2015-2018.
Lauri and trier especially in that Xavier game.
Also, saying a bad tourney game invalidates your shooting prior...Salim ended his career shooting awfully vs Illinois. It gets lost in the collapse, but he couldn't throw a rock in the ocean that day.YoDeFoe wrote:Put that one on Alkins's broken hand. Shouldn't have been 4 v 5 out there.CalStateTempe wrote:Not when it counted.
Tourney history 2015-2018.
Lauri and trier especially in that Xavier game.
prh wrote:Zo carried the team on his back late in the Xavier game and only missed the last shot he took. So emblematic of how perception works in college ball
There used to be a sublink to Recency Bias, but it disappeared late last night.ByJoveByJingle wrote:Any discussion of Sean Miller and Arizona basketball can be warehoused on Wikipedia under Confirmation Bias.
only team to beat 3 #1s and doesnt crack their top 50?GTownCat wrote:The '97 cats ranked #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ship-teams" target="_blank
It's not crazy. We had a weak regular season, and it's #58 of 81 national championship teams. Things like that will drag you down.PieceOfMeat wrote:only team to beat 3 #1s and doesnt crack their top 50?GTownCat wrote:The '97 cats ranked #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ship-teams" target="_blank
fuck that
Right, we beat higher ranked teams, any of which would be higher ranked than us on the all-time list had they won the title. We beat them, making us victorious and beloved, and nobody gives a shit about this all-time ranking list.PieceOfMeat wrote:only team to beat 3 #1s and doesnt crack their top 50?GTownCat wrote:The '97 cats ranked #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ship-teams" target="_blank
fuck that
The list is heavily skewed towards old "dominant" or undefeated teams who really didn't have that much competition or were never as great as their records indicate. Just looking at the number of losses on a team's resume is about as antiquated as it gets when it comes to determining who the best teams in history were (that ended up winning the title). More recent champs are absurdly under ranked despite the fact that most seasons are more efficient than ever before. In 20 minutes I compiled my own list using a couple different sources and the 97' Arizona team ranked #38.zonagrad wrote:That all-time list is concocted by some hack at ESPN. If that same hack was on any program's message board (like this one), their argument would be ripped to shreds.
Arizona's '97 team beat North Carolina in Springfield to start the season without Miles Simon.
The non-conference schedule was damn tough. Lost at New Mexico (Lobos made NCAA tourney as a 3-seed & exited 2nd round)
Beat Utah in Anaheim. Utes were a #2 seed in the tourney and lost in the Elite 8 to Kentucky. Yes, Utah was damn good that year with Van Horn. Even better the next year as we found out.
Beat Texas. Horns made the Sweet 16 that year.
Conference schedule: Look at how many Pac 10 teams made the tournament that year. Arizona lost at Stanford by 1. At Cal by 2. At UCLA in Overtime. And Arizona beat the shit out of everyone at home except UCLA.
Then to beat 3 number one seeds for the only time ever and that those #1 seeds happen to be the three winningest programs of all time is pretty damn impressive.
IMO, the accomplishment of the '97 was in no way a fluke. Between beating North Carolina twice, Kentucky, Kansas, Utah and the meat grinder of the Pac 10 conference shows just how good and battle tested they were.
Arizona went a combined 9-4 against all the teams in the Sweet 16 in '97. That's 13 games. Stanford, Cal, Utah, Kentucky, UCLA, Providence, Kansas, Texas, UNC.
The Pac had 4 teams in the Sweet 16.
58th? GTFOOH.
Of course, the revered ACC got so much respect. Duke was a #2 seed that year despite non-conference losses to Michigan, Indiana and UCLA and a first round ACC tourney loss to NC State. But hey, it's Duke. No way they get anything lower than a #2 seed.
And here's some context to that season. Duke was the #2 seed in the Southeast Region. They lost to UCLA in a non-conference game in February.
zonagrad wrote:That all-time list is concocted by some hack at ESPN. If that same hack was on any program's message board (like this one), their argument would be ripped to shreds.
Arizona's '97 team beat North Carolina in Springfield to start the season without Miles Simon.
The non-conference schedule was damn tough. Lost at New Mexico (Lobos made NCAA tourney as a 3-seed & exited 2nd round)
Beat Utah in Anaheim. Utes were a #2 seed in the tourney and lost in the Elite 8 to Kentucky. Yes, Utah was damn good that year with Van Horn. Even better the next year as we found out.
Beat Texas. Horns made the Sweet 16 that year.
Conference schedule: Look at how many Pac 10 teams made the tournament that year. Arizona lost at Stanford by 1. At Cal by 2. At UCLA in Overtime. And Arizona beat the shit out of everyone at home except UCLA.
Then to beat 3 number one seeds for the only time ever and that those #1 seeds happen to be the three winningest programs of all time is pretty damn impressive.
IMO, the accomplishment of the '97 was in no way a fluke. Between beating North Carolina twice, Kentucky, Kansas, Utah and the meat grinder of the Pac 10 conference shows just how good and battle tested they were.
Arizona went a combined 9-4 against all the teams in the Sweet 16 in '97. That's 13 games. Stanford, Cal, Utah, Kentucky, UCLA, Providence, Kansas, Texas, UNC.
The Pac had 4 teams in the Sweet 16.
58th? GTFOOH.
Of course, the revered ACC got so much respect. Duke was a #2 seed that year despite non-conference losses to Michigan, Indiana and UCLA and a first round ACC tourney loss to NC State. But hey, it's Duke. No way they get anything lower than a #2 seed.
And here's some context to that season. Duke was the #2 seed in the Southeast Region. They lost to UCLA in a non-conference game in February.