UW @ Arizona Discussion Thread

smashmode · Post by **smashmode** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:12 pm

Hey guys

. Hoping for a good game.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:16 pm

I know some of you already are having doubts about the game, but I got to throwdown why I think the Huskies win this game.

1. Jack "COBRA" Browning - He is the best player on the field, enough said on that. He has a whole season under his belt and he will do everything possible to win the game. He was a monster among boys at Folsom.

2. Offensive Line - They average a weight of 332 lbs across the line, they are ready to dominate the line of scrimmage. Tray Adams, Brostek, center, McGary, Harris, Ossai etc. These boys have the attitude and are ready to rumble.

3. Kawasaki - New Defensive Scheme and a new attitude. Every player has spoke out about the difference between last year and this year, we will see a much improved defense on game day.

4. Speed, Speed, Speed - This is the fastest UW team has been in a long time. Budha Baker, John Ross 3, Charlie McClutchins, Gaskin, Virta, Dotson, even Labron Coleman got faster this off season. The newbies will be inexperienced but will bring something that they haven't had in past seasons, speed. Like Joyner.

5. Time of Possession - I think UW can dominate the time of possession stat. The more they can shorten the game and keep their defense on of the field, the better chance we have to win the game.

I'm afraid to say it guys/gals because I know you already don't feel good about this game, but I think UW wins this one rather easily on national television, say 34-17....

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:24 pm

Hey Smashie! One of the best rival posters around.

[quote="Purplehaze206]
1. Jack "COBRA" Browning - He is the best player on the field, enough said on that. He has a whole season under his belt and he will do everything possible to win the game. He was a monster among boys at Folsom.
[/quote]

He played on the prison football team?

Purplehaze206 wrote: 2. Offensive Line - They average a weight of 332 lbs across the line, they are ready to dominate the line of scrimmage. Tray Adams, Brostek, center, McGary, Harris, Ossai etc. These boys have the attitude and are ready to rumble.

That's the game right here. UA might keep in close for a half or so if the offense is in sync, but the DL will wear down being 50-80 pounds lighter per man, and UDub will run with ease, although they are a passing team.

dmjcat wrote:
Here is the most telling statistic (Size of the two defensive lines)

UA:

6-1 247
6-1 271
6-2 247

azpenguin · Post by **azpenguin** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:54 pm

Griffey's a bigger receiver and he was overshadowed last year by Cayleb Jones, who was one of those "throw the ball somewhere near him and he'll go up and get it" kind of guys. He's had some big plays for sure, including a 90+ yard TD last year against ASU where he outran the entire ASU secondary for about 85 yards. Right now we're not sure where the offense is at since Solomon is injured and Dawkins is a run-heavy QB, so we've gotta wait and see how many times Trey gets thrown at.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:10 pm

Line opened at UDUB -9.5

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:19 pm

if I didn't have a rooting interest, I'd be really tempted to jump on the road favorite with the hook under 10.

But I cannot do that. Not even for money.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:39 pm

azpenguin wrote:Griffey's a bigger receiver and he was overshadowed last year by Cayleb Jones, who was one of those "throw the ball somewhere near him and he'll go up and get it" kind of guys. He's had some big plays for sure, including a 90+ yard TD last year against ASU where he outran the entire ASU secondary for about 85 yards. Right now we're not sure where the offense is at since Solomon is injured and Dawkins is a run-heavy QB, so we've gotta wait and see how many times Trey gets thrown at.

ASU didn't fix that issue, apparently.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:56 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:This is an active Cats forum, others seem so dead. Husky fan here, looking forward to start the PAC season. #GoDawgs

Good to have you.

We've been really inconsistent this year. Of 6 halves, 2 have been complete turds, 2 have been good, 1 was meh and 1 was 20 minutes of nothing and 10 hot minutes.

I don't think that goes well against UW. You guys have a good team and we give up a decent amount on both sides of the ball. I'd be happy if we didn't lose by double digits. Physically, we don't have the defensive depth, size or speed that I'd want.

We need Dawkins or Solomon to go lights out and turn it into a shootout to have a real chance.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:48 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:I know some of you already are having doubts about the game, but I got to throwdown why I think the Huskies win this game.

1. Jack "COBRA" Browning - He is the best player on the field, enough said on that. He has a whole season under his belt and he will do everything possible to win the game. He was a monster among boys at Folsom.

2. Offensive Line - They average a weight of 332 lbs across the line, they are ready to dominate the line of scrimmage. Tray Adams, Brostek, center, McGary, Harris, Ossai etc. These boys have the attitude and are ready to rumble.

3. Kawasaki - New Defensive Scheme and a new attitude. Every player has spoke out about the difference between last year and this year, we will see a much improved defense on game day.

4. Speed, Speed, Speed - This is the fastest UW team has been in a long time. Budha Baker, John Ross 3, Charlie McClutchins, Gaskin, Virta, Dotson, even Labron Coleman got faster this off season. The newbies will be inexperienced but will bring something that they haven't had in past seasons, speed. Like Joyner.

5. Time of Possession - I think UW can dominate the time of possession stat. The more they can shorten the game and keep their defense on of the field, the better chance we have to win the game.

I'm afraid to say it guys/gals because I know you already don't feel good about this game, but I think UW wins this one rather easily on national television, say 34-17....

While I couldn't really find a reason to disagree with you I must say that this post is quite the fan boy response. Looks like you are ready to take on Bama and Ohio St. Hope that pans out for you.

Most teams coming off 3 cupcakes at home feel.pretty good about themselves. To Get a fourth cupcake in your first road game in the conference is fortunate and Oregon is down so it looks like your game against Stanford might be for the north marbles

threenumberones · Post by **threenumberones** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:45 pm

No reason to think we should win this game..

But due to purple haze's 7yr old kid with a new barbie doll post, I predict we win by 20.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:50 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:Has Griffey taken the next step yet? Still fond memories of his pops swinging the bat.

He's all right, except for a tendency to wear helmet backwards..

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:07 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:I know some of you already are having doubts about the game, but I got to throwdown why I think the Huskies win this game.

1. Jack "COBRA" Browning - He is the best player on the field, enough said on that. He has a whole season under his belt and he will do everything possible to win the game. He was a monster among boys at Folsom.

2. Offensive Line - They average a weight of 332 lbs across the line, they are ready to dominate the line of scrimmage. Tray Adams, Brostek, center, McGary, Harris, Ossai etc. These boys have the attitude and are ready to rumble.

3. Kawasaki - New Defensive Scheme and a new attitude. Every player has spoke out about the difference between last year and this year, we will see a much improved defense on game day.

4. Speed, Speed, Speed - This is the fastest UW team has been in a long time. Budha Baker, John Ross 3, Charlie McClutchins, Gaskin, Virta, Dotson, even Labron Coleman got faster this off season. The newbies will be inexperienced but will bring something that they haven't had in past seasons, speed. Like Joyner.

5. Time of Possession - I think UW can dominate the time of possession stat. The more they can shorten the game and keep their defense on of the field, the better chance we have to win the game.

I'm afraid to say it guys/gals because I know you already don't feel good about this game, but I think UW wins this one rather easily on national television, say 34-17....

34-17 seems pretty low-scoring. If Arizona's going to get dominated, we're giving up 40-50 points easily. On the other side, I don't think 3 cupcakes at home really prepared your defense for a fast-paced offense like Arizona's can be. My head says something like 49-28 UW, but my heart hopes for a 27-24 'Cat win at the buzzer, a-la 2014. We'll see what happens. I just hope UW overlooks us and BD's simplified read-option proves too difficult to handle. We seem to have a true dual-threat QB finally, which hasn't really happened since Anu's Freshman year, or Matt Scott before that.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:14 pm

Purplehaze post in a nutshell.

"I know you are already a bemoaning your existence as an ARIZONA 2016 FB fan, but let me just tell you why I think you really don't have change".

Whatever.

CATS with the upset in late 4th quarter.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:32 pm

threenumberones wrote:No reason to think we should win this game..

But due to purple haze's 7yr old kid with a new barbie doll post, I predict we win by 20.

I know you're probably just joking but I haven't played with dolls in years..

But that said, does printing out a picture and taping it to my Fleshlight count?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:35 pm

Who hasn't done that?

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:38 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:
threenumberones wrote:No reason to think we should win this game..

But due to purple haze's 7yr old kid with a new barbie doll post, I predict we win by 20.
I know you're probably just joking but I haven't played with dolls in years..

But that said, does printing out a picture and taping it to my Fleshlight count?

Whew, feisty. Not to sound like a mod (idk if this site even has moderators tbh) but you should consider toning that down, dawg. This forum's full of older guys who probably won't "get" that kinda humor.

azgreg wrote:Who hasn't done that?

Nevermind!

cordera89 · Post by **cordera89** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:35 am

Chicat wrote:I hate being that bad fan who talks shit about 20 year old kids who go out and bust their asses and destroy their bodies for my entertainment, but you have to go with the guy who gives you the best chance to win. And that guy is Dawkins...

Are you that certain that dawkins will give RR and Arizona that positive chance to win. How are we going to fare against better quality teams with good defense in our conference with our best chance to win QB in Dawkins. Dude who ever at QB, RR offense is just predictable to quality Defensive team in the PAC 12.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:09 am

With the offensive line not fully in sync yet and not performing at a high level I think you have to play Dawkins who can get away from pressure easier and will make the run option work. Yes short to intermediate throws are sacrificed if you do that but I think the run game being better and deep throws make it worth it.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:33 am

smashmode wrote:Hey guys . Hoping for a good game.

Hey Smash! Miss your presence buddy, but we know you're busy trying to guilt the NHL into granting Seattle a franchise.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:49 am

Even though the Dawgs have been playing the Sisters of Mercy, this is still pretty impressive.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:11 am

23) Arizona 22.3 PPG

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:35 am

I feel like we can pull the upset, but I'm only like 10% confident it will actually happen. Will take a perfect storm of UW overlooking us, our offense playing way better, and our defense playing a way it hasn't since the Oregon game when Scooby burst onto the national scene.

Seems like a tall order...

Gilbertcat · Post by **Gilbertcat** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:12 am

Ew, they have a short week and a long travel to play Stanford...they might be looking past this game. It would be impressive if they won both this week and Friday though. Its a schedule I would hate.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:20 am

I was as skeptical as most on Washington pre season, but after watching them a few times they pass the eye test for me. However, those defensive numbers were amassed by playing Dumpster U, Left-Eye Tech, and Portland Cement. I still think we lose though.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:22 pm

Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:37 pm

He was always a QB, at least while at Arizona.

Spread went down to -8 at one point for 5 minutes. Must be lots of money being bet on UDub.

09/19 1:00pm WASH-10 -110 ARIZ+10 -110
09/19 1:20pm WASH-9 -110 ARIZ+9 -110
09/19 2:10pm WASH-8 -110 ARIZ+8 -110
09/19 2:15pm WASH-9.5 -110 ARIZ+9.5 -110

whatisee · Post by **whatisee** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:51 pm

Merkin wrote:He was always a QB, at least while at Arizona.

Spread went down to -8 at one point for 5 minutes. Must be lots of money being bet on UDub.

09/19 1:00pm WASH-10 -110 ARIZ+10 -110
09/19 1:20pm WASH-9 -110 ARIZ+9 -110
09/19 2:10pm WASH-8 -110 ARIZ+8 -110
09/19 2:15pm WASH-9.5 -110 ARIZ+9.5 -110

Arizona is 0-3 against the spread so far this year. This is the game you would want them to break that string.

ghostwhitehorse · Post by **ghostwhitehorse** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:00 pm

If the 'Cats can FINALLY put the tackling issue to bed. . . I have a feeling the D will look like it's in Udubs head, at least for the first half.

UALoco · Post by **UALoco** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:53 pm

If we win the toss, elect to receive, and score a TD on the first drive...anything can happen..I'd say 50/50. If UDUB scores first...it is over.

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:17 pm

UALoco wrote:If we win the toss, elect to receive, and score a TD on the first drive...anything can happen..I'd say 50/50. If UDUB scores first...it is over.

Although I agree that we need to strike first, I think we need to defer. We need a defensive stop, then a score. If we receive, there's too much pressure to score on the opening drive. Plus, against a good defense, I don't want to see an opening 3-and-out to start the game. Let them get stopped, or hold them to a FG, and then our turn. Besides, a 2nd half kickoff is always good. Either to capitalize on positive momentum, or to reverse negative momentum.

azpenguin · Post by **azpenguin** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:20 pm

I'm a fan of deferring because that gives you an extra card in your pocket. If you're behind at half, it gives you a chance to stop the bleeding and close the gap. If you're ahead, this gives you a chance to put the other team in a deeper hole. It's your only chance to have a bit of control over what happens later in the game.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:06 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.

I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:08 pm

How about we win the toss and receive. Then at the start the 2nd half we take the ball again because.....fuck the Huskies.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:17 pm

How about we just let our new starting QB run the show and unveil Mr. Taylor to the rest of the Pac12.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:19 pm

Gladiator Cat · Post by **Gladiator Cat** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:42 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.

Purplehaze,

Not only do I agree that UW will win, I'll be amazed if we keep the score with in 20 points.

Additionally, I expect you're bigger stronger UW players to pound our collection of undersized mini-me's and add to our injury issues.

It is beyond perplexing that in year five under RR my Wildcats are so woefully undermanned and under-talented when looking across the field at what Chris Peterson has done at UW in short order.

God help us if Brandon Dawkins or JJ Taylor were to get injured.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:54 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%

I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:23 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%
I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.

So you're telling me there's a chance?

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:56 pm

Would be more impressed if you gave your score prediction as part of this 81% and your odds on covering the mark of 9 points. Are you sticking with 34-17 from your analysis?

I would imagine that any 9.5 pt favorite has above a 75% chance of winning a game straight up.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:00 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.

You had me at spreadsheet.

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:11 pm

azgreg wrote:

Good. Let them do whatever dance they want. Cal State Northridge assistant Sociology professor be damned.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:18 pm

Yes, 34-17 is the number.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:39 pm

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:42 pm

azgreg wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.
You had me at spreadsheet.

Is it possible to work up a venn diagram of what we expect on Saturday, Greg?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:54 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
azgreg wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.
You had me at spreadsheet.
Is it possible to work up a venn diagram of what we expect on Saturday, Greg?

This could be a fun class project.

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:54 pm

Purplehaze206 wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%
I have a spreadsheet ( and all the screenshots I need). But at the end of the day, all we can do is let it play out and in the end I think we will find my 81% to be pretty dang accurate.

... okay, but there's no way to test the accuracy of "an 81% chance of winning" because we're only playing one game.

i could say udub has a 6% chance of winning this weekend and it would be no more or less correct. agree about throwing prognostications to the wind and letting this thing just play out, though. why can't it be saturday already, dammit?

prh · Post by **prh** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:41 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%

Hate to ruin his mystery, but a road favorite at -9.5 has an implied win probability of 79%

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:23 pm

With this years team, I'll take upsetting the dawgs one out of every five games.

Who's to say that this game isn't that one? UW aint Bama.

Purplehaze206 · Post by **Purplehaze206** » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:39 am

prh wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%
Hate to ruin his mystery, but a road favorite at -9.5 has an implied win probability of 79%

The formula and equations are proprietary, so it would be impossible for me to reveal them here and now.

Newportcat · Post by **Newportcat** » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:13 am

Purplehaze206 wrote:
prh wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:
Purplehaze206 wrote:Did Dawkins play RB before the move to QB? Or different dude?

As for the game, based on my calculations I give Washington an 81% chance to win this game.
I would love to see the formula and objective data you are using to come up with 81%
Hate to ruin his mystery, but a road favorite at -9.5 has an implied win probability of 79%
The formula and equations are proprietary, so it would be impossible for me to reveal them here and now.

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