The rest of the schedule...odds of finishing...

[Berkut]

Wow, expectations just went crazy. And rightly so - Arizona just took down one of the best programs in college football at home. You don't beat Oregon at home much. Nobody does.

This is a truly great time to be a Wildcat football fan. So fraking exciting.

Here is what I think we (I) know right now:

1. This offense is very special. We have an excellent offensive line, a solid and improving QB who shows flashes of brilliance at times, but is still a freshman at times as well. We have a very good backfield with what looks to be a solid 1-2 punch available. The receiving corps is just outstanding. We have an overall excellent offense, and a coach that knows how to use it and match it up well - but those receivers need the ball delivered to them, and freshman QBs are stlll frehsman QBs. For as good as Solomon has been, I think there will come games where his inexperience is going to cost us. And we have no proven depth at QB, and I don't know what the O-Line depth is like. Oregon shows how fast just a couple O-Line injuries can really harm an otherwise very good team.

2. The defense. I have no idea how good they are. They looked bad through the first 5 games, and then very good against Oregon. Was Oregon having a bad night and this defense is really not that good? Was it just a scheme thing, and power teams are going to have their way with us? Or has this defense started to click? I am going to assume that our defense is better than the first 4 games indicated, but not as good as the Oregon game suggests. Lets call it an average to slightly below average unit. That isn't so bad - our offense is good enough to allow us great success with just an average defense.

3. Special teams is solid, and we have a good FG kicker who can be counted on to get us points when we expect the kicker to get us points.

We have seven more games. Here is my personal look at each of them, and my "objective" attempt to evaluate our odds of winning each game based on what I think we know right now, based on the above assumptions.


USC at home
Which USC teams is going to show up? The one that couldn't stop BC on the ground, or the one that shut down ASU's ground game? I think Arizona won't care - either way we will get our points, and USC won't be able to keep up.
Odds of a win: 65%

@WSU
A team that just broke the FBS record for passing, and Arizona's secondary is...not so good.
Odds of a win: 60%

@UCLA A more traditional, power team, and Arizona struggles against those. Winning at UCLA won't be easy, and they have a nicely balanced attack. Their defense isn't great though - but still, they are at their home.
Odds of a win: 45%

Colorado
Not a very good team, IMO. Should not have much trouble with them, but still, it is the Pac-12
Odds of a win: 75%

Washington
Again, should be a win, but they are better than their record, IMO
Odds of a win: 70%

@Utah has been playing extremely well, with an excellent defense.
Odds of a win: 50%

ASU at home. It is ASU. RR is 0-2 against them, and assuming we come into this game with the league title on the line, this would make their decade to knock Arizona out of the conference title game
Odds of a win: 60% (just because we are at home)

If I add all those up (.65+.6+.45.+.75+.7+.5+.6), we get 4.25 wins, so call it 4-3. Which seems kind of low to me, since we did just rattle off 5 wins. 5-2 seems very doable, 6-1 not likely but still possible.

3-4 is about as likely as 5-2, I think, but 2-5 is extremely unlikely.

Overall odds of finishing out:

7-0 (12-0): 5%
6-1 (11-1): 10%
5-2 (10-2): 15%
4-3 (9-3): 25%
3-4 (8-4): 20%
2-5 (7-5): 15%
1-6 (6-6): 8%
0-7 (6-7): 2%

[azcat49]

I haveno idea where we will finish but I believe. Why not Arizona. 3 reasons we end up being Cinderella at the ball

1) RR, he can flat out coach and he has been here before
2) Anu, all he does is win championships
3) our offensive line has two Sunday tackles and a centrr who is mean as hell. Loads of experience out there

Do we have Ore h onsnumber or are we really that good? Why not Arizona