2014 Bear Down Wildcats survival Pool week 8

[azgreg]

Ladies and gentleman. Welcome to week 8 of the 2014 Bear Down Wildcats Survival Pool.

Rules:

1) Pick 1 FBS team per week.
2) Select teams from games that week (per NCAA schedule).
3) That team must be UNDEFEATED.
4) Once you pick a team, you can't pick them again.
5) You must post your pick before your selection kicks off.
6) Miss a pick either by your pick losing, picking a team not playing, or failing to post a pick you're out.
7) The pick must be in the thread for that week.
8) Use a hottie picture to make your pick. (optional)

Any disputes will be solved by a vote of the posters still alive.

Post your week 8 picks in this thread.

First game this week is Tuesday 10/4.

The following posters have survived and move on:

OSUCat - (Old Dominion, California, Florida, Arizona, TCU, Ole Miss, Florida St) Baylor
CatnapTom - (Purdue, Arizona St, Oregon, N Carolina St, TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame) Ole Miss
Merkin - (N Carolina St, Arizona St, Baylor, Penn St, TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame) Ole Miss
carcassdragger - (Arizona, Arizona St, Ole Miss, Washington, TCU, Marshall, Florida St) Baylor
NYCat - (Akron, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, N Carolina St, TCU, Baylor, Notre Dame) Ole Miss
dc4azcats - (Utah, California, Mississippi St, Washington, TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame) Florida St

The following posters have been eliminated:

Chicat - pick lost week 2
azthrillhouse - pick lost week 2
Irish27 - pick lost week 4
wilbur1997 - pick lost week 4
PieceOfMeat - pick lost week 4
Puerco - pick lost week 4
catinfl - failed to post pick week 4
qwertyus - pick lost week 4
scumdevils86 - failed to post pick week 5
Wcjoker - pick lost week 5
btfd16 - pick lost week 6
azcat49 - pick lost week 6
Sage&Silver - pick lost week 6
AZCatGirl - pick lost week 6
The Butcher - pick lost week 6
Angcatfan - pick lost week 6
Deadlygas - pick lost week 6
Lofty - pick lost week 6
azgreg - pick lost week 6
CalStateTempe - pick lost week 6
Machina - pick lost week 6
Abrahamarvel - pick lost week 6
UALoco - pick lost week 6
prh - pick lost week 6
Reydituto - pick lost week 6
Blue&RedHeart - pick lost week 6
threenumberones - pick lost week 6
Daveracity - pick lost week 6
UAEebs86 - pick lost week 7

[Reydituto]

The following posters have survived and move on:

OSUCat - (Old Dominion, California, Florida, Arizona, TCU, Ole Miss, Florida St))
CatnapTom - (Purdue, Arizona St, Oregon, N Carolina St, TCU, Notre Dame)
Merkin - (N Carolina St, Arizona St, Baylor, Penn St, TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame)
carcassdragger - (Arizona, Arizona St, Ole Miss, Washington, TCU, Marshall, Florida St)
NYCat - (Akron, Louisiana-Monroe, Marshall, N Carolina St, TCU, Baylor, Notre Dame)
dc4azcats - (Utah, California, Mississippi St, Washington, TCU, Marshall, Notre Dame)

Intriguing. With only 6 teams left undefeated, as I suggested last week this contest will probably end on November 1. Let's handicap the race shall we?

OSUCat - Up to 4 weeks left, already used 2/6 remaining undefeated teams.
CatnapTom - 5 weeks left, used 1/6 remaining.
Merkin - 3 weeks left, used 3/6 remaining.
carcassdragger - 3 weeks left, used 3/6 remaining.
NYCat - 3 weeks left, used 3/6 remaining.
dc4azcats - 3 weeks left, used 3/6 remaining.

CatnapTom appears to have the edge here, especially as one of three (Merkin and NYCat) with both Mississippi teams still available to him. Miss St on a bye looms huge, as that leaves Merkin, carcassdragger and NYCat with only two choices available this week. FSU-Notre Dame complicates matters further, as does the fact that both teams (and Baylor too) will be on a bye the following week, as everyone has already used one or the other. That game will not only eliminate an undefeated team, it may take away an additional remaining choice for the surviving posters, or even possibly end their run if they pick the loser of that game (which IMO will be Notre Dame, who is a consensus 12-pt underdog right now).

Based on the above, here's how I see it unfolding, in order of most likely to least likely to win 2014 Survivor:

1. CatnapTom - Most choices available to him, and especially if FSU wins and he doesn't use FSU this week.
2. OSUCat - Leaps into pole position with a ND win.
3. dc4azcats - Ahead of the other 3/6 teams-used posters because MSU on a bye doesn't hurt him this week, but having used MSU hurts him beyond this week. Also, 2 of his 3 choice are on byes next week, so has to pick accordingly.
4. (tie) Merkin & NYCat - Both have the same choices left, and their best gambit may be to ride with FSU this week. A Notre Dame win hurts them both equally (unless only one of them uses Florida St, then one will be hurt even worse). FSU winning however leaves them with only one actual choice the next week should they survive.
5. carcassdragger - Only two choices this week, and unless Notre Dame wins, likely one choice next week.

Good luck to all of you though. I look forward to pictures of scantily clad coeds the next few weeks.

[azgreg]

if there is a tie with no picks remaining the tie will be broken with the conference championships challenge.

[Carcassdragger]

I'll jump in with my pick.

Baylor

[NYCat]

Just like in real life the cheerleaders get boring, no pic.

Ole Miss.

[Merkin]

Gut says FSU, but got to go with the odds.

[dc4azcats]

Florida State as it's the only move I have.

[OSUCat]

I will toss my hat in for Baylor.

[CatnapTom]

Ole Miss

[CatnapTom]

Not that it affects anything but handicapping, I used Marshall (missing on your remaining survivors list breakdown) as a week 6 pick so I think I'm tied with OSUCat.

[azgreg]

All picks are in, good luck everybody.

[Reydituto]

Not that it affects anything but handicapping, I used Marshall (missing on your remaining survivors list breakdown) as a week 6 pick so I think I'm tied with OSUCat.

Ah. Wasn't listed in the OP as one of your choices, and looking back, you are one short compared to the others. I still have you the favorite b/c you have favored FSU available as opposed to underdog ND, but the edge is not as large to be sure.

Good luck everyone!

[azgreg]

fixed

[Merkin]

Final Four time!

[Carcassdragger]

AzGreg, thanks for running this again this year buddy. Had fun. Thank you.