2014 Bowl Projections

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:15 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
ghostwhitehorse wrote:Fuck Cowherd with a pogostick. http://espn.go.com/college-football/pow ... show/first
What a fucking joke. Utah at 21 but we're unranked? Did he miss the game yesterday?

It's an obvious mistake. If you look at Cowherd's rankings from the prior week, he had us at 12.

He has actually been very pro Pac-12 all year long.

cat77 · Post by **cat77** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:27 pm

Alieberman wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
ghostwhitehorse wrote:Fuck Cowherd with a pogostick. http://espn.go.com/college-football/pow ... show/first
What a fucking joke. Utah at 21 but we're unranked? Did he miss the game yesterday?
It's an obvious mistake. If you look at Cowherd's rankings from the prior week, he had us at 12.

He has actually been very pro Pac-12 all year long.

Ya I think he fixed it. He now has us tied with ASU at 13. I mean that's still a joke but whatever.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:57 pm

cat77 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
ghostwhitehorse wrote:Fuck Cowherd with a pogostick. http://espn.go.com/college-football/pow ... show/first
What a fucking joke. Utah at 21 but we're unranked? Did he miss the game yesterday?
It's an obvious mistake. If you look at Cowherd's rankings from the prior week, he had us at 12.

He has actually been very pro Pac-12 all year long.
Ya I think he fixed it. He now has us tied with ASU at 13. I mean that's still a joke but whatever.

Nope, he still doesn't have us in his top 23.

cpt · Post by **cpt** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:30 pm

Looking for something that shows the bowl options at this point. Haven't seen any. Anyone have any insight?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:37 pm

cpt wrote:Looking for something that shows the bowl options at this point. Haven't seen any. Anyone have any insight?

What do you mean by bowl options?

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:49 pm

cpt wrote:Looking for something that shows the bowl options at this point. Haven't seen any. Anyone have any insight?

There are a plethora of projections out there: Jerry Palm has us in the Fiesta Bowl

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... redictions

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:50 pm

cpt wrote:Looking for something that shows the bowl options at this point. Haven't seen any. Anyone have any insight?

Get in the top 4 of CFP rankings, Sugar or Rose.

Between 5-11 in the CFP rankings (from CFP Wiki):

In years when the bowls are not part of the playoff bracket, the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the following conferences or groups will be selected as follows:[53]

Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Additional selection criteria
The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" mid-major conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff.[53]
The remaining five at-large bids will be determined by committee rankings.[53]
If the Big Ten or SEC champion is available for a non-playoff bowl in a year when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting semifinals, that team will appear in either the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl, but not the Orange Bowl.[53]
In the Orange Bowl, the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed at least three appearances during the eight non-playoff years, while Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice.[54]
In non-playoff years, if the Orange Bowl matchup creates a regular-season rematch for the ACC representative, the bowl may choose to "skip over" the prescribed opponent from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame group and select the next highest-ranked team from the group. The team that was rejected would be placed in one of the three at-large bowls, if it meets ranking standards.[55]
In years when the Orange Bowl is a national semifinal, the ACC champion will play in the Fiesta or Peach bowls if it is not selected for the playoff.[56]
In choosing the pairings for the four non-playoff bowls, the committee will try to create "the most compelling matchups possible", while taking into account geography and team rematches from both the regular season and recent bowls.[57]

Outside of the CFP Bowls, PAC-12 selection order:

Pac-12

If No. 1 isn’t in College Football Playoff
Note: The Rose is No. 1 in years when it’s no part of the playoff

1. Rose Bowl (in years when it’s not the playoff)
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12 No. 2
3. National University Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten No. 6
4. San Francisco Bowl vs. Big Ten No. 7
5. Hyundai Sun Bowl vs. ACC
6. Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West No. 1
7. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl vs. Big 12 No. 5

When the PAC-12 affiliated bowls pick, they pick the next team available in the overall CONFERENCE standings.
They are free to choose the next team or any team within one game of them in the CONFERENCE standings.

Current overall standings:

Oregon 7-1 (10-1)
UCLA 6-2 (9-2)
Arizona 6-2 (9-2)
ASU 6-2 (9-2)
USC 6-3 (7-4)
Utah 4-4 (7-4)
Stanford 4-4 (6-5)
UW 3-5 (7-5)
Cal 3-6 (5-6) Need to beat BYU to be bowl eligible
OSU 2-6 (5-6) Need to beat Oregon to be bowl eligible

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:18 pm

It seems to me that if UCLA beats Stanford and then loses to Oregon in the PAC-12 championship game, they probably stay in the Top 11.

I also think the winner of the ASU/UofA game will be in the Top 11.

That puts Oregon in the Rose or Sugar, with UCLA AND the ASU/UofA winner in one of the Fiesta/Cotton/Peach/Orange.

The Alamo Bowl, #2 in the PAC-12 pecking order, could actually end up with the fourth or fifth place team (ASU/UofA loser or U$C)

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:33 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:It seems to me that if UCLA beats Stanford and then loses to Oregon in the PAC-12 championship game, they probably stay in the Top 11.

I also think the winner of the ASU/UofA game will be in the Top 11.

That puts Oregon in the Rose or Sugar, with UCLA AND the ASU/UofA winner in one of the Fiesta/Cotton/Peach/Orange.

The Alamo Bowl, #2 in the PAC-12 pecking order, could actually end up with the fourth or fifth place team (ASU/UofA loser or U$C)

I think that's very optimistic.

Pac 12 Winner is in the playoff
Pac 12 champ game loser in Fiesta
2nd place Pac-12 South in Alamo

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:36 pm

Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:39 pm

Alieberman wrote:

I think that's very optimistic.

Pac 12 Winner is in the playoff
Pac 12 champ game loser in Fiesta
2nd place Pac-12 South in Alamo

We are probably Top 11 or damn close this week. If we beat ASU, we certainly will be. Maybe if ASU wins they don't make it, but I think we would after beating two straight ranked teams.

dc4azcats · Post by **dc4azcats** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:51 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo

Why? If we beat Assu and lose to Oregon the committee will put us in the Fiesta Bowl and why wouldn't they?

You had us winning what 6 games TY? Your brother had us getting manhandled by the Utes. You guys are killing it this season. Nice job.

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:03 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo
Why? If we beat Assu and lose to Oregon the committee will put us in the Fiesta Bowl and why wouldn't they?

You had us winning what 6 games TY? Your brother had us getting manhandled by the Utes. You guys are killing it this season. Nice job.

Depends on UCLA, no? If UCLA wins vs Stanford, I'm assuming they are Fiesta Bowl bound?

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:06 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo
Why? If we beat Assu and lose to Oregon the committee will put us in the Fiesta Bowl and why wouldn't they?

You had us winning what 6 games TY? Your brother had us getting manhandled by the Utes. You guys are killing it this season. Nice job.

Both your projections assume that we beat ASU, so it's hardly as if he's being a chicken little. Yours assumes that Stanford beats UCLA. That's unlikely... Not impossible, but not an outcome I'd wager on.

This has already been a very, very good season. Win Friday and it will be a great one, regardless of where we go bowling.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:09 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:

I think that's very optimistic.

Pac 12 Winner is in the playoff
Pac 12 champ game loser in Fiesta
2nd place Pac-12 South in Alamo
We are probably Top 11 or damn close this week. If we beat ASU, we certainly will be. Maybe if ASU wins they don't make it, but I think we would after beating two straight ranked teams.

I think if we beat ASU but don't go to Pac Championship game, we are top 10, but Fiesta/Cotton/Peach/Orange all just pick at large teams and I don't see them picking 2 Pac schools.

But upon further review:

Assuming playoff is: Oregon / Florida St / Alabama and 4th?.... lets just say TCU beats out Baylor / Ohio St and Miss. St.

So for 8 spots in the other "Big Bowls (Fiesta/Cotton/Peach/Orange) that leaves:

Locks:

Baylor
Ohio St
Miss St
UCLA
Georgia

Final 3 Spots:

Michigan St
Kansas St
Arizona
Auburn
Georgia Tech
Marshall?

We could be right on the bubble.... interesting

Beat ASU!!!!

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:16 pm

Well Marshall is going to go to one of those bowls if they win out. They are required to.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:17 pm

But if we're not in the playoffs I want the fiesta bowl

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:22 pm

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/overview

Participants in the New Year’s Bowls

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangement (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the displaced champion(s) will play in the other New Year’s bowls.

The Fiesta, Cotton and Peach Bowls will host displaced conference champions and the top-ranked champion from a non-contract conference. The highest-ranked available teams will fill any other berths. The Selection Committee will make the pairings.

Looks like the Orange bowl is out of the equation this year.

dc4azcats · Post by **dc4azcats** » Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:23 pm

MrBug708 wrote:
dc4azcats wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo
Why? If we beat Assu and lose to Oregon the committee will put us in the Fiesta Bowl and why wouldn't they?

You had us winning what 6 games TY? Your brother had us getting manhandled by the Utes. You guys are killing it this season. Nice job.
Depends on UCLA, no? If UCLA wins vs Stanford, I'm assuming they are Fiesta Bowl bound?

If. Big if in my mind.

As I said last night, everybody is and has been talking about how great ucla is and nobody will be giving Stanford a chance on Friday. Much like nobody (including a number of fans on this board) had us beating Utah and RR and Arizona kept quiet and let everybody else do the talking and we came out and kicked the crap out of Utah.

Stanford doesn't have a great offense but it can certainly play some D. Confidence and a will to win can trump a team that has more talent when that team thinks it's destined to win because everybody says they will. I, know you guys will be heavy with the black face paint this week and maybe that will be enough.

It will be interesting to see IF Arizona beats a ranked Assu, while ucla beats an unranked Stanford and then gets smoked by Oregon again. The same Oregon that Arizona beat at Autzen. So you have a team that is 10-2 in Arizona with a win at Oregon and at Utah vs a team - vs Ucla that is 10-3 (both losses to Oregon and Utah were at home) with losses to teams that Arizona beat. I don't think it's as cut and dry as you suggest.

If the above scenario plays out like that, I would say there's more than a good chance that Arizona will be ranked higher than Ucla by the committee thus getting the nod over Ucla for the Fiesta Bowl.

pokinmik · Post by **pokinmik** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:24 am

I'm with ya DC. Stanford will give the bruins a fight. But, if we beat the scum and UCLA loses to Oregon, we'd be riding high with wins over a ranked Utah on the road and a highly-ranked scum team, while UCLA is handed their third beating. It's not fair maybe but that's how rankings work, we'd still be ranked higher than UCLA in this scenario. If AZ beats the scum we're easily top10 at end of season.

CatsbyAZ · Post by **CatsbyAZ** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:53 am

I was going to ask if the scenarios are clear cut - the ASU/UA winner goes here, the loser goes there? But reading the last few comments it looks like there's still a lot outside the ASU/UA game that will influence the selection.

azpenguin · Post by **azpenguin** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:34 am

dc4azcats wrote:As I said last night, everybody is and has been talking about how great ucla is and nobody will be giving Stanford a chance on Friday.

Defense travels, and Stanford's offense is showing some signs of life lately. If I had to place money on the game I'd be putting it on UCLA, but I do think Stanford has a good shot at winning this game.

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:44 am

Ucla is -4.5 on friday.

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:53 am

Beat ASU and the rest will sort itself out.

Stanford is 0-5 against ranked opponents this season... and the Rose Bowl should be as rockin' as it has been in years for a Bruin home game. I really don't expect Stanford to win but there's always a chance.

From a bowl standpoint, we'd be better off having UCLA go to the P12 championship game and lose convincingly - than we would to make it and not win. A 2 loss Arizona team will be a more attractive selection than a 3 loss Arizona team - period. The best we can hope for, even if we win the conference, is the Fiesta Bowl... and we'll have a good shot of making it there anyway if UO meets and beats UCLA next weekend. The fact that the Fiesta Bowl is in AZ does not hurt, and (other than Oregon) we will have the highest ranking, the season's best road victory, and 2 solid wins to close out the season.

Worst case scenario is UCLA beats Stanford AND Oregon. Then we are most likely 3rd in line for Bowl selection with no P12 team in the F4 playoff.... and barring multiple miracles in the next 12 days, we're not making the playoff.

Whatever the case... there has not been a Territorial Cup with this much on the line for both teams in the P12 era, and probably not ever.

Thankfully we'll have the Maui Invitational and Thanksgiving to occupy ourselves until Friday. And I am not sure I've ever looked at basketball, in November, as a diversion until a FB game. The culture is changing

I can't wait...

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:33 am

azpenguin wrote:
Defense travels, and Stanford's offense is showing some signs of life lately.

Ty Montgomery might not play - that's not going to help their O.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:04 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
azpenguin wrote:
Defense travels, and Stanford's offense is showing some signs of life lately.
Ty Montgomery might not play - that's not going to help their O.

True, but on the other hand Wright's 4 TD and close to 100 yard rushing performance was a very positive sign.

Stanford's running game has sucked this year.

Catstatic · Post by **Catstatic** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:19 am

I don't think Oregon wants an Arizona victory and a UCLA loss.

Go Cats!!

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:20 am

Catstatic wrote:I don't think Oregon wants an Arizona victory and a UCLA loss.

Go Cats!!

I don't agree. I bet they would love a rematch. A chance to avenge their only loss.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:26 am

azgreg wrote:
Catstatic wrote:I don't think Oregon wants an Arizona victory and a UCLA loss.

Go Cats!!
I don't agree. I bet they would love a rematch. A chance to avenge their only loss.

Yeah thats what they said going into this years game!

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:36 am

azgreg wrote:
Catstatic wrote:I don't think Oregon wants an Arizona victory and a UCLA loss.

Go Cats!!
I don't agree. I bet they would love a rematch. A chance to avenge their only loss.

If Oregon is smart they only care about facing the team they feel they have the best chance of beating.

All they need to do to make the playoff is 2 more wins. They don't need a revenge win, and should be focused on the bigger picture.

If Iam Oregon, I want no part of an Arizona team that has beaten us 2 times in a row. It is the only team in the conference that KNOWS they can, and have beaten the Ducks. And while no coach will ever admit it, there is more doubt in the UO locker room in a game against UA than any other P12 team.

For once the P12 probably also wants Arizona in that game. An AZ-UO rematch on a neutral field probably draws more national interest than any other matchup.

That all means nothing as I don't think that game happens... UCLA has a history of not doing is favors in late season FB games, and I do not expect them to start now.

Catstatic · Post by **Catstatic** » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:40 am

Oregon has better players, but their coaching staff is overmatched. RR and his guys know more about this type of football than Helfrich and his guys could ever hope to know. They'll say the right things, but we crushed them at home, beat them on the road (it was no fluke), and would have more confidence going up against them than any other Pac 12 team. I would love to see the Cats go against the Ducks for the Pac 12 title.

Go Cats!! Go Cardinal!!

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:21 pm

With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:22 pm

Alieberman wrote:With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.

I still think if UCLA beats Stanford and loses to Oregon in a respectable game, UCLA and the UA/ASU winner are in a CFP bowl.

Maybe the Cotton takes one and Fiesta the other.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:26 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.
I still think if UCLA beats Stanford and loses to Oregon in a respectable game, UCLA and the UA/ASU winner are in a CFP bowl.

Maybe the Cotton takes one and Fiesta the other.

That's possible but I mainly think that we will jump UCLA in the rankings if they finish with a loss vs Oregon and we finish with a win vs. ASU

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:29 pm

Alieberman wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.
I still think if UCLA beats Stanford and loses to Oregon in a respectable game, UCLA and the UA/ASU winner are in a CFP bowl.

Maybe the Cotton takes one and Fiesta the other.
That's possible but I mainly think that we will jump UCLA in the rankings if they finish with a loss vs Oregon and we finish with a win vs. ASU

I agree, but I think they will stay in the top 11. Don't think they'll get punished for playing well enough down the stretch to earn the right to lose to Oregon again.
They were a missed field goal away from sweeping the PAC-12 South.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:32 pm

Phil Steele has us in the Fiesta.

http://www.philsteele.com/bowls/14-15/b ... tions.html

Sage&Silver · Post by **Sage&Silver** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:41 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.
I still think if UCLA beats Stanford and loses to Oregon in a respectable game, UCLA and the UA/ASU winner are in a CFP bowl.

Maybe the Cotton takes one and Fiesta the other.

To get a third PAC12 team in, need one of the SEC, B1G or BigXII teams to fall out of top ten. Doesn't have to just be UCLA.

I think we need an Arkansas win this week to put Georgia in the SEC champ game. They'll be coming off a game with GT and win or lose, that D-line will be beat up pretty badly going into the SEC champs game. They could look pretty ugly in that game.

Of course, lose the Territorial Cup, and all gifts could swing ASU's way.

RichardCranium · Post by **RichardCranium** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:41 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo

I sorta agree, unfortunately.

That fits with my vision from early October (hallucination) of us in a bowl game against Oklahoma.

Baylor and TCU are going to bigger bowls/playoffs and I figure OK for the Alamo as it stands at the moment.

Sage&Silver · Post by **Sage&Silver** » Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:32 pm

RichardCranium wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Yeah. At this point I think we are in the Alamo
I sorta agree, unfortunately.

That fits with my vision from early October (hallucination) of us in a bowl game against Oklahoma.

Baylor and TCU are going to bigger bowls/playoffs and I figure OK for the Alamo as it stands at the moment.

Should be K-State in the Alamo

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:43 am

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:39 pm

Alieberman wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:With new rankings out (UCLA #8, UofA #11)- We are now close enough to UCLA that I think it is entirely possible that if we beat ASU, we could be Fiesta bound regardless of what UCLA does vs Stanford... as long as UCLA loses to Oregon.
I still think if UCLA beats Stanford and loses to Oregon in a respectable game, UCLA and the UA/ASU winner are in a CFP bowl.

Maybe the Cotton takes one and Fiesta the other.
That's possible but I mainly think that we will jump UCLA in the rankings if they finish with a loss vs Oregon and we finish with a win vs. ASU

Wilner is also putting us into the Fiesta if we take down the scumdevils. Assumes UCLA will become a 3 loss team to Oregon which would put us above UCLA in the rankings.

Pac-12 football: Bowl projections: Arizona’s win changed everything

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespo ... more-38114

Sage&Silver · Post by **Sage&Silver** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:18 pm

As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.

dc4azcats · Post by **dc4azcats** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:43 pm

Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.

If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:58 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.
If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.

Your points are valid but you are excluding the most pertinent point.........UCLA beat the UA head to head and that little detail will be weighted more heavily than anything you cite in your argument.

Sage&Silver · Post by **Sage&Silver** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:01 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.
If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.

I didn't mean anything about UCLA's position relative to UA. I agree a win over ASU should pull us even. BUT, if it doesn't... I'm not counting on UCLA to take a big tumble after picking up a 3d loss like in the BCS days. If UA is behind UCLA at the end of the week, I'm not sure they'd jump any team from the same conference over UCLA.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:16 pm

dmjcat wrote:
dc4azcats wrote:
Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.
If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.
Your points are valid but you are excluding the most pertinent point.........UCLA beat the UA head to head and that little detail will be weighted more heavily than anything you cite in your argument.

And you know that how? Got an inside man on the CFP committee? I remember last year when you claimed you were the one who knew how bowl selections were done and you were wrong.

asudevil81 · Post by **asudevil81** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:36 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.
If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.

And they blew out a team that you guys lost to at home plus they beat you head to head. If they let Arizona pass UCLA then there is no reason to try to schedule a tough schedule. UCLA played on the road against Virgina, played a good Memphis team at home and played Texas in Texas while UA played at terrible UTSA, at home against terrible UNLV and an average Nevada team. UCLA also missed the two worst teams in the North while Arizona missed 2nd best Stanford and 5th ranked OSU and add on another game against the 2nd best team in the country. Those are the reasons why UCLA will stay above Arizona if they lose in the Pac-12 Championhip game unless Arizona blows out ASU and UCLA struggles with Stanford and then gets blown out by Oregon.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:50 pm

asudevil81 wrote:
dc4azcats wrote:
Sage&Silver wrote:As far as UCLA goes:

I get the feeling the playoff committee isn't going to punish teams for winning their division like the old polls did. At least not when they lose to a top-4 team.
If they had actually won the division with a better record then I could see your point, but they didn't have a better record.

Ucla lost at HOME to both Utah and Oregon which are 2 teams that Arizona beat on the ROAD. Two best road wins by any team in the country. Arizona with just 2 losses if in fact Ucla does beat Stanford and then loses to Oregon again, will not go ahead of Arizona to the Fiesta Bowl. How can they? Arizona will get another bump if it beats Assu this week so we will move up into the top 10. Ucla on the other hand will have beaten an unranked Stanford. If Ucla loses to Oregon you can't put them ahead of Arizona and the Committee won't for the reasons listed above.
And they blew out a team that you guys lost to at home plus they beat you head to head. If they let Arizona pass UCLA then there is no reason to try to schedule a tough schedule. UCLA played on the road against Virgina, played a good Memphis team at home and played Texas in Texas while UA played at terrible UTSA, at home against terrible UNLV and an average Nevada team. UCLA also missed the two worst teams in the North while Arizona missed 2nd best Stanford and 5th ranked OSU and add on another game against the 2nd best team in the country. Those are the reasons why UCLA will stay above Arizona if they lose in the Pac-12 Championhip game unless Arizona blows out ASU and UCLA struggles with Stanford and then gets blown out by Oregon.

I have not seen anything indicating that UCLA and the Arizona/Arizona St. winner can't both get into CFP bowls.
Arizona is already in the Top 11 and will only move up with a win. ASU is 13, with a win jumps Arizona and almost certainly makes the Top 11.

I don't think there is any reason why the Arizona/ASU winner couldn't go to the Fiesta Bowl and UCLA go to say the Cotton Bowl since it will most likely
stay in the Top 11 with a win vs. Stanford and a loss to Oregon.

I am looking for more information on how those bowls are selected - all I have found so far is "placed by CFP selection committee".
In the BCS system, there was an order every year and the bowls picked as their turn came up so the Fiesta could pick UofA/ASU winner over
UCLA if both were high enough in the rankings if they liked the matchup better.

asudevil81 · Post by **asudevil81** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:06 pm

No, I think there is a great chance that the ASU/UA winner makes a New Year's six game. But if the Pac-12 doesn't get a third team, I think UCLA has done enough to earn that second spot and shouldn't be penalized for having to play the 2nd best team in the country for a second time while we get to sit at home and do nothing.

Unless Florida State loses, either ASU or UA needs to finish in the Top 10 because two spots will be taken by the 2nd highest finishing ACC team (assuming Florida State wins out) and the highest non big 5 conference finisher.

Here is a good link on the selection process.
http://espn.go.com/i/ncf/bcs/CFP_One_Pager_Cities_1.pdf

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:18 pm

asudevil81 wrote:No, I think there is a great chance that the ASU/UA winner makes a New Year's six game. But if the Pac-12 doesn't get a third team, I think UCLA has done enough to earn that second spot and shouldn't be penalized for having to play the 2nd best team in the country for a second time while we get to sit at home and do nothing.

Unless Florida State loses, either ASU or UA needs to finish in the Top 10 because two spots will be taken by the 2nd highest finishing ACC team (assuming Florida State wins out) and the highest non big 5 conference finisher.

Here is a good link on the selection process.
http://espn.go.com/i/ncf/bcs/CFP_One_Pager_Cities_1.pdf

Thanks for the info. Didn't know that part about ACC runner up.

So the Orange Bowl would rather have Georgia Tech than a Top 10 team?

Login • Register