Road to the Final Four

[UAEebs86]

I overheard something on the radio about a move to go to the 8-team playoff quickly and drop the conference championship games.
(The only reason we let Utah and Colorado in - thanks Larry Scott!) Didn't catch who was pushing it though.

Speaking of radio, I was out this afternoon and turned on the radio to 1290am, and the host guys on the radio show (Rich something calling in from florida and hosting...and luke something? or maybe that was just his twitter name or whatever) seem to have basically written off any possibility of getting to the Final Four. They were just repeating beat Oregon and get to the Fiesta bowl. meh.

Woodman is off this week. Mike Luke is having Rich Herrera who I guess used to be on the station like a decade ago co-hosting part of this week.
Not sure if anyone remembers him - I think it was during a time I was living in Phoenix and being subjected to Gambo, Ash, & Bickley.
(I like Mike Jurecki for his Cards coverage.)

After Rome I streamed 910 in Phoenix this afternoon to see if they were talking about the 'Cats or the TC game. ("The Freaks with Kenny & Crash")
It was literally the worst sports talk show I have ever listened to in my life. Made Gambo sound intelligent.

[PieceOfMeat]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/coll ... positions/

from that:

Michigan State and Arizona, No. 10 and No. 11 entering the weekend, are almost certain to move up in the rankings given the losses ahead of them. But only Arizona has realistic playoff hopes; the Wildcats will face Oregon for the Pac-12 championship after having beaten Arizona State. How far they move up on Tuesday should tell us something about how seriously the committee takes them.

Kinda what I've been thinking.

Woodman is off this week. Mike Luke is having Rich Herrera who I guess used to be on the station like a decade ago co-hosting part of this week.
Not sure if anyone remembers him - I think it was during a time I was living in Phoenix and being subjected to Gambo, Ash, & Bickley.
(I like Mike Jurecki for his Cards coverage.)

After Rome I streamed 910 in Phoenix this afternoon to see if they were talking about the 'Cats or the TC game. ("The Freaks with Kenny & Crash")
It was literally the worst sports talk show I have ever listened to in my life. Made Gambo sound intelligent.

Ah, yeah, that's who they were. Just annoyed me they were writing off any hope at all and had so succinctly moved on to the Fiesta bowl even with a win.

[azcat34]

Baylor knows they are in trouble, going after TCU:

[Chicat]

That email should remind everyone that the money involved in college athletics is truly staggering.

[azpenguin]

I wonder what the committee thinks about Baylor hiring a PR firm for this.

[Alieberman]

I wonder what the committee thinks about Baylor hiring a PR firm for this.

I'm pretty sure they think Baylor is just wasting a bunch of money. It will have zero impact.

[azcat34]

I wonder what the committee thinks about Baylor hiring a PR firm for this.

I'm pretty sure they think Baylor is just wasting a bunch of money. It will have zero impact.

It will have a negative impact, I am sure the committee thinks they are a bunch of morons.

I actually feel better about Arizona being 6th tomorrow ahead of Baylor and of course the committee darling Michigan State.

[PieceOfMeat]

Didn't see this SI article posted yet, apologies if it has been.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2014 ... bble-watch

Arizona Wildcats (10-2)

Strength of schedule: 35
Quality wins: at Oregon, vs. Arizona State, at Utah
Losses: at USC, at UCLA

Case for: As one Pac-12 South team falls out of the playoff hunt, another emerges in its place. Arizona is the best two-loss team because its collection of quality wins is better than every other team, no-loss and one-loss squads included. The Wildcats’ win at Oregon is the best result of the season, and they’ve proved it was no fluke after beating Arizona State and at Utah.

Case against: Arizona’s two losses still leave it needing a lot of help to make the playoff. The loss at UCLA is understandable. It’s the 28-26 loss to USC that will haunt Rich Rodriguez’s squad, specifically Casey Skowron’s missed 36-yard field goal on the game’s penultimate play. Arizona might be the No. 4 seed right now if it had won that game.

Verdict: Out. So far the committee has been unwilling to put a two-loss team above any of the one-loss playoff hopefuls.

Path to the playoff: If the Wildcats can take down Oregon, they’ll remove one of the teams in their path to the playoff. Arizona would then likely need two losses among Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor.

[azthrillhouse]

After Rome I streamed 910 in Phoenix this afternoon to see if they were talking about the 'Cats or the TC game. ("The Freaks with Kenny & Crash")
It was literally the worst sports talk show I have ever listened to in my life.

Seconded. They are unlistenable.

[catgrad97]

The head-to-head argument nullifies any of the Big-12's "co-champ" BS that shows a true desperation to stay relevant that conference--and, hell, Baylor in particular--always seems to fall into on a semiannual basis.

Beating Oregon will be a greater task than all of the convincing of all of the committees and pollsters in the world to slot Arizona in the Rose Bowl after a win Friday. Why?

The silence from Eugene is deafening. While we speculate and dream, they gameplan. This will be the most ready the Ducks will have been for a game in years. Respect and focus, because just beating Oregon is the hardest part of the mountain to climb.

[Catstatic]

The head-to-head argument nullifies any of the Big-12's "co-champ" BS that shows a true desperation to stay relevant that conference--and, hell, Baylor in particular--always seems to fall into on a semiannual basis.

Beating Oregon will be a greater task than all of the convincing of all of the committees and pollsters in the world to slot Arizona in the Rose Bowl after a win Friday. Why?

The silence from Eugene is deafening. While we speculate and dream, they gameplan. This will be the most ready the Ducks will have been for a game in years. Respect and focus, because just beating Oregon is the hardest part of the mountain to climb.

Agreed. Nice thing is while we may be speculating and dreaming, RR and staff are preparing. Helfrich and staff are very good coaches with incredible players. However, RR invented this type of football, as well as how to defend it, and he's got some excellent players as well. This will be a barn burner on Friday!

Go Cats!!

[azpenguin]

If there's one thing I don't worry about with this coaching staff, it's game planning. Oregon's going to be ready as they could ever be for this one but so will Arizona. RichRod is not intimidated by a big stage.

[catgrad97]

It's not the coaching staff's preparedness I'm concerned about.

This team could still lay an egg Friday. The players need to be confident without feeling they've "arrived," because they haven't yet.

Let your play on the field speak for your attitude and all good things will come. Until then, Bear Down, Arizona!

[UAtrue]

I never dreamed even if we were 9-3 or 10-2 that we could be in a position to end up playing for a national championship. Normally if you had told me we would win the south I woulda just said "sweet!" and it wouldn't really have mattered if we lost to Oregon. Now I'm greedy and want to get a shot at that National championship.

But Dont rag on this team if they don't beat the Ducks! These kids have earned our respect either way. I have said the players need to get greedy but the fans need to be happy either way!

i'd never rag on them for losing on Friday. This season has still been a tremendous success and the best season I have watched personally.

If we lose we will be going to the Cotton or Fiesta Bowl. We were picked pre-season to finish 4th in the South.

No one in their right mind would rag on this team for anything at this point.

Its sad but people will be posting the EVERY DAMN TIME thread and we both now that.

the "Every Damn Time" thread is based on our history of screwing the pooch after a big win or just when its looking like we really have a good team we go out and lose to WSU or ntOSU or someone like that. Or, in the case of this year, a weak USC

[azgreg]

Jerry Palm's prediction.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... -for-dec-2

1) Alabama (Nov. 25 CFP ranking -- 1): The Tide came back to beat Auburn and are heavy favorites in the SEC Championship Game against Missouri.

2) Oregon (2): Oregon had no problem with Oregon State. The Ducks can avenge their only loss in the Pac-12 title game against Arizona.

3) Florida State (3): The Seminoles held off Florida, which will bring up more stupid discussions about game control. They face Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.

4) TCU (5): TCU was impressive on Thanksgiving Day at Texas. It was the Horned Frogs' final chance to impress because they really can't do that against Iowa State.

5) Ohio State (6): The Buckeyes beat Michigan, but paid a heavy price with the loss of QB J.T. Barrett to a broken ankle. The committee should reserve judgment on how that injury will affect Ohio State until this week. The Buckeyes will be fully tested against Wisconsin.

6) Baylor (7): The Bears lost Bryce Petty to a concussion and then almost blew a 25-point lead to Texas Tech. They need Petty this week against Kansas State. A win should finally boost Baylor past TCU.

7) Arizona (12): Arizona beat Arizona State and got the help it needed to win the division and play for the Pac-12 title.

8) Mississippi State (4): The Bulldogs saw their playoff and Egg Bowl dreams broken in a loss at Ole Miss. They are a lock for a host bowl game, if not a spot in the Orange Bowl.

9) Michigan State (10): The Spartans had an easy time with Penn State. They are also a lock for a committee bowl game.

10) Kansas State (11): The Wildcats play at Baylor this week looking for a share of the Big 12 title.

[pokinmik]

I think Palm's prediction for tonight is pretty good.

Arizona isn't being talked about right now because non of the talking heads want to broach the possibility that AZ could defeat Oregon twice. This is what the media does, they freak out so soon about scenarios that will eventually prove to be meaningless when there is still plenty of football left. All the hype right now is controversy over OSU, TCU, or Baylor being the 4th seed. Meanwhile the Cats will be lurking, just waiting in the shadows at #7. A second win versus Oregon completely flips the narrative and catapults the Cats into the discussion at the 11th hour. I actually have faith in the committee if we are to beat Oregon, luckily it's not up to the polls or BCS anymore, because I wouldn't have any faith in them.

[azgreg]

Except when we want 2.

[PieceOfMeat]

another espn article that says the Cats are the worst of the bunch:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... contenders

puhlease

[ANGCatFan]

Except when we want 2.

Well, it is really more of a guideline than an actual rule.

[azgreg]

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id ... disruptors

[azgreg]

Probably more like 50/1.

[ghostwhitehorse]

Probably more like 50/1.

[PieceOfMeat]

::::

aaaaand GWH beats me to the punch. damnit!

[pokinmik]

Arizona is 40/1 on Sportsbook. Well behind Bama, Oregon, FSU, TCU, OSU, Baylor...even behind Wisconsin.

But, future bets are largely based on public perception...plus we have the hardest test in front of us, which is why we would stand a chance if we can overcome this obstacle that is Oregon in Santa Clara. If we get there it will be earned, no doubt about that.

[azgreg]

Cats are 7th.

[pokinmik]

Not that Texas is great but TCU throttled them. TCU getting bumped up bodes well for AZ IMO. The committee will respect the hell out of us if RR and co. can pull off another one versus Oregon. Our resume will be too strong to ignore.

[AZCatGirl]

So if things go as planned Saturday Alabama and TCU are locks and Baylor is out. How Ohio St. does will probably determine if we're in or not. I think Florida St. is in no matter what. If they lose and Ohio St. and Arizona win, I think Ohio St would take the 4th spot.

[BearDown89]

[azgreg]

nm

[BearDown89]

[EVCat]

Agree. Ohio State will be hard to keep up in the mix unless they win big because, well...this isn't a poll. This is about who is best now with body of work to support it, and Ohio State, sadly for them, are a broken team right now. When there are 64 slots, throwing in a team with a late season injury to "prove" they still deserve the seeding is fine. When there are only 4 slots, it is imperative for competitive TV viewing that they not throw in a clunker. And one of the Big XII 2 will be devalued...no way they get 2 teams, including a non-conference champ, in.

So OSU, Oregon (if we win), and TCU/Baylor get hopped. There's your #4. Getting ranked 7 instead of the 8 of the polls was HUUUGE.

FSU/TCU/OSU losing could be our path to the Rose Bowl, maybe in home colors.

I really think the hardest part of this "Arizona to the Final Four in Football" equation is beating Oregon. And that is very, very, very difficult. Having starters back DOES matter...we weren't the same without Nick Wilson and when Fabians was dinged. It is ludicrous to suggest that the Ducks being without starters on the O line didn't have any impact.

But we were playing them in Eugene. Early in the year with Freshmen still learning their roles. And we have done it twice.

So, yeah...Friday might just be the only solve to this equation. And it will take an A game. But we are capable of that....

Holy f**k...this is almost too much to consider.

[3goggles]

I say fuck let's have bama, Oregon, Tcu, fsu, osu, Baylor lose and let's be the number 1 seed!!!

[azcat49]

Why not Arizona, why not arizona, why not arizona. Keep chanting it

[ANGCatFan]

Here is Pete's prediction of Sunday's final four. He just made my Christmas list.

[3goggles]

I would love to play fsu and bama play tcu!

[prh]

Yeah #4 vs Bama is clearly worst scenario. Not in Rose Bowl, and I'd much rather play anyone besides Bama after 3+ weeks off. I'd love a FSU matchup but that seems pretty impossible now.

[PieceOfMeat]

I say fuck let's have bama, Oregon, Tcu, fsu, osu, Baylor lose and let's be the number 1 seed!!!

tcu isn't gonna lose against that cupcake they're playing.

but I'd take the rest of them losing and UA ending up as the #2 seed

[prh]

I say fuck let's have bama, Oregon, Tcu, fsu, osu, Baylor lose and let's be the number 1 seed!!!

tcu isn't gonna lose against that cupcake they're playing.

but I'd take the rest of them losing and UA ending up as the #2 seed

Oklahoma State says hi

But seriously, I'm with you. There's no way TCU is losing this after destroying UT last week and what they set themselves up for.

[3goggles]

I say fuck let's have bama, Oregon, Tcu, fsu, osu, Baylor lose and let's be the number 1 seed!!!

tcu isn't gonna lose against that cupcake they're playing.

but I'd take the rest of them losing and UA ending up as the #2 seed

Ok state would tell you different a few years ago!

[azgreg]