Bear Down Wildcats

MountainCat wrote:Good read from Rolling Stone Magazine - Confirms a lot of the complaints for those of us outside the SEC looking in.

http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/fea ... f-20141028

Let’s examine the SEC and the Pac-12, for instance.

1. The top of the Pac-12 has two bad losses: USC-Boston College is a bad loss, and Utah-Washington State is a horrendous loss.

The top teams in the SEC West, meanwhile, have only lost to themselves.

2. The Pac-12 has one … count ‘em: ONE … top-shelf non-conference win, Oregon over No. 8 (committee rankings) Michigan State, and it came at home.

The SEC, meanwhile, has a neutral field win over No. 20 West Virginia (Alabama), a road win over No. 9 Kansas State (Auburn) and a home win over No. 21 Clemson (Georgia).

Even the second-tier SEC noncon wins, like Ole Miss over Boise State, LSU over Wisconsin and South Carolina over East Carolina, are better than anything the Pac-12 can offer outside of Oregon-Michigan State.

It’s not Utah’s fault that Michigan is down – same goes for UCLA as it relates to Texas – but it’s the reality.

In fact, when you take Oregon-Michigan State out of the equation, the collection of noncon wins by the best of the Pac-12 (Oregon, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, USC and UCLA) is utterly unimpressive:

UC Davis, Army, Weber State, South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho State, Virginia, New Mexico, Fresno State, Michigan, Nevada, UTSA, UNLV, Memphis and Texas.

Only two of the FBS teams in that group have winning records: Memphis and Nevada, and those would hardly be viewed as quality wins by the Pac-12.

UALoco wrote:SEC is the best conference until another conference steps up and proves otherwise. You have to "knock out" the champion. FSU's NC last year was a good punch in the face but not a knock out. Until another conference can show a better head to head record and start racking up some National Chamionships, they will still be king of the hill. Get over it, enjoy our deserved #12 ranking, and hope we win out.

azgreg wrote:Yes, an 8 game schedule. Then we can play Presbyterian in November, unless, you know, Alabama is playing them.

Alieberman wrote: Here are each teams remaining games vs current top 20

#1Miss St: at Alabama, at Ole Miss
#2 Florida St: None
#3 Auburn: At Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama
#4 Ole Miss: Auburn Miss St.
#5 Oregon: at Utah
#6 Alabama: at LSU, Miss St, Auburn
#7 TCU: Kansas St.
#8 Michigan St: Ohio St.
#9 Kansas St: at TCU, at Baylor
#10 Notre Dame: at ASU
#11 Georgia: Auburn
#12 Arizona: at Utah, ASU (plus this week at #22 UCLA)
#15 Nebraska: None

ANGCatFan wrote:

Alieberman wrote: Here are each teams remaining games vs current top 20

#1Miss St: at Alabama, at Ole Miss
#2 Florida St: None
#3 Auburn: At Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama
#4 Ole Miss: Auburn Miss St.
#5 Oregon: at Utah
#6 Alabama: at LSU, Miss St, Auburn
#7 TCU: Kansas St.
#8 Michigan St: Ohio St.
#9 Kansas St: at TCU, at Baylor
#10 Notre Dame: at ASU
#11 Georgia: Auburn
#12 Arizona: at Utah, ASU (plus this week at #22 UCLA)
#15 Nebraska: None

I've edited your list to pull out teams that already have a bad loss. A 1 loss team that already has a bad loss will probably be passed over for a 2 loss team that only had close losses to other top teams.

Removed from contention for bad losses:

Utah lost to Wash St
Ohio St lost to VA Tech
ASU crushed by UCLA 62-27
Baylor big loss to West Virginia 41-27

That leaves 13 teams with a chance for the final 4.

I bolded the teams who I think could still have 2 good losses and remain in the playoff picture. The rest of the teams realistically need to win out to get a spot in the finals (including Arizona).

Also, remember that everyone except TCU, K State, and ND will have to play an additional game against a top 20 team in their conference championship to stay alive for the playoffs.

It's great that we are one of the last 13 teams with a chance for the championship, but that all goes away with one loss. Beat Ucla! Beat ASSu! Bear Down!

Harvey Specter wrote:Nice post, but I think any one-loss P12 Conference champion is likely to get the nod.

And that's good for us, because come season's end, our home loss to USC could end up being viewed as a bad one. The Trojans run the table from here in (which I do not expect) and it's not an issue. If they stumble coming in, and finish with only 6-7 wins, it will not help our cause or argument.

ANGCatFan wrote:

Harvey Specter wrote:Nice post, but I think any one-loss P12 Conference champion is likely to get the nod.

And that's good for us, because come season's end, our home loss to USC could end up being viewed as a bad one. The Trojans run the table from here in (which I do not expect) and it's not an issue. If they stumble coming in, and finish with only 6-7 wins, it will not help our cause or argument.

I'm assuming 2 spots are pretty much locks, one for the SEC champ and one for FSU (easiest schedule left). That leaves 2 spots up for grabs and I believe a 1 loss ASSu or Utah would lose when compared to any of the teams I listed who are still one loss or any of the possible 2 loss teams I bolded. They would need everyone to lose and the remaining SEC teams all to have 3 losses (or a terrible second loss) to make the playoffs.

A 2 pt loss by Arizona with a chance to win on the last play against USC won't be considered bad even if Steve gets his traditional 7 wins. The big brains on the committee will all point out USC is one of the most talented teams in the country and played their best against us. Much harder to justify Utah's or ASSu's losses.

But for now I only care about 2 things. Beat Ucla and beat ASSu! Bear Down!

azpenguin wrote:The one thing these rankings tell us is that no matter what we think this team is or isn't capable of, they have a shot to play for this. And at this point that's all you can ask.

UALoco wrote:SEC is the best conference until another conference steps up and proves otherwise. You have to "knock out" the champion.

azgreg wrote:I just want to make sure I'm clear here. A SEC team or Florida St has to come from behind to beat an inferior opponent it shows grit and tenacity, but if a Pac-12 team has to do the same it shows how over-rated they were. Do I have that right?

azgreg wrote:I just want to make sure I'm clear here. A SEC team or Florida St has to come from behind to beat an inferior opponent it shows grit and tenacity, but if a Pac-12 team has to do the same it shows how over-rated they were. Do I have that right?

azgreg wrote:I just want to make sure I'm clear here. A SEC team or Florida St has to come from behind to beat an inferior opponent it shows grit and tenacity, but if a Pac-12 team has to do the same it shows how over-rated they were. Do I have that right?

BMalo wrote:

azgreg wrote:I just want to make sure I'm clear here. A SEC team or Florida St has to come from behind to beat an inferior opponent it shows grit and tenacity, but if a Pac-12 team has to do the same it shows how over-rated they were. Do I have that right?

This. Or if a Pac-12 team beats Oregon it's because of Oregon's deficiencies due to injury. However, if a team other than Oregon, Stanford, USC, UCLA loses due to deficiencies based off injuries, than it's because their "big win" was an anomaly.

Chicat wrote:Why do I get the sneaking suspicion that Bama jumps Oregon?

#17 Arizona
The Wildcats went from winning at Oregon to afterthought in the Pac-12. That's not going to change in the next three weeks.

Chicat wrote:Why do I get the sneaking suspicion that Bama jumps Oregon?

Alieberman wrote:PAC 12 bias

azgreg wrote:I like how they really seam to make a new one each time. Not just move teams up or down based on wins or loses.