Bear Down Wildcats

So I went back and from 2002 through 2015 (assuming the 2015 class is done recruiting) and the U of A recruited the following number of 2 star, 3 star, and 4 star players based on Rivals.com.

2 star - 84 recruits
3 Star - 214 Recruits
4 Star - 49 Recruits

From my simple analysis, we have averaged a star ranking of 2.90 since 2002. Our best classes were 2005, 2006, 2010, and 2014 as they were the only classes to provide us with average star rankings above 3.00.

I then wanted to analyze how our 2 star recruits have done compared to our 4 star recruits. So I looked at every player and gave them a grade between 0-5

0 - Never stepped foot on campus aka BUM
1 - Stepped foot on campus and barely did anything aka Pledge who joins then quits or never does anything for the house
2 - Was a contributor to the team - aka Mr. I am good enough, smart enough and people like me
3 - Was a starter - aka People on this board know my name, respect me, but average fans forgets about me 1-2 years later
4 - Multi-Year starter/all pac-12 honoree - aka Stud
5 - NFL player - Aka Gronkowski (that's Boston for BEAST)

The results were interesting

On average our 2 stars averaged 1.57 points and our 4 stars only averaged 1.90 points. This does not include members of the 2014 or 2015 classes as too early to analyze them.

I did not analyze the 3 stars because I am too lazy too.

What i think it says is how recruiting is an inexact science for sure. However 4 stars on average will perform better then 2 stars but not be a ton for our program.

I think what it really shows is we have not done a great job at keeping and developing talent. I was shocked at how many guys I remember who we got to sign with Arizona and then they did nothing at Arizona. Both 2 stars and 4 stars. When you look at programs like Boise State, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, etc (Programs that don't finish with top 25 classes but typically finish with Top 25 programs year in and year out) they do a great job at developing talent. They get guys in their program and keep them there and let them eventually flourish.

So many of those Boise state players would not have gotten an offer from U of A but clearly were U of A worthy.

Even after this analysis, I think it is critical going forward we continue to recruit better players as they do have a greater chance at success. However, its critical that Rich Rod and Co develop players better then Mackovic or Stoops did for us to have long-term success.

Keep in mind though out of the 77 recruits Rich Rod signed in 2012, 2013, and 2014, 25 of those guys are no longer with the program. 13 are gone from the first class, 9 from the second, and 3 from last years class. That's a lot of misses IMHO. Maybe its because they bring guys in and if they don't feel they fit they let them walk easily to find OKG's. The first class is typically a pass but his next class had a lot of misses too. Lets hope the 3rd class reverses the trend.

Who know's and yes i am a nerd for doing this but always wanted to do this. I guess what I found for every Scobby Wright there are a ton of Cedric Cofers and Kenny Barnes type players and for every Kadeem Carey there are Solomon Koehller and Apaiata Tuihalamaka who never amount to anything for one reason or another. Trick is getting good recruits, then keeping them in the program and developing their talents. Lets hope Rich Rod does that well over the next couple of seasons

Interesting analysis Newportcat.

I think there is a perception by many on the boards that we have more players leave than other schools but I bet if anyone did the analysis we are in line with other schools. Concussions, injuries, grades, tired of football, happens to every school.

We have even less success with five stars.
I think Golden was the only one who ever did anything.

The only 5 star rivals had for us was Louis Holmes. Golden was a high 4 star but believe 5 star on Scout.

It would be interesting to see how well other schools do at keeping and developing players. I have actually followed Boise State football through the years and I always have felt they have done a great job of it and one critical reason for their success. Given how hard the sport of football is you are always going to lose guys each year regardless of the program you are in, the trick is to make sure you have the depth to make sure there is a lot of people waiting in the wings. Even this week our D Coordinator was talking about the lack of depth on our defense still. It is hard and losing guys only makes it harder.

We have a lot of guys leave our basketball program but typically we replace them with better players, not true for football

Wasn't Gabe Long 5 stars? Never showed up if I recall. He, Holmes, and Golden were the three I was thinking of.

He was a five star one year then four star another. I lumped 4 and 5 stars together

Wonder when our next 5 star will be for football?

Newportcat wrote:He was a five star one year then four star another. I lumped 4 and 5 stars together

Wonder when our next 5 star will be for football?

We had Tabor for a week or two.

Remember, you automatically lose a star when you commit to Arizona.

Maybe there is a reason we get those 4 star kids? I like the info but of the 3 coaches it covers doesn't cover much success (Wacko n Stoops). Hoping after RR re works his roster we get more efficiency

Unfortunately I can't find recruiting stars and rankings earlier then 2002 but knowing dick tomey and Larry smith both of them also focused on 2 and 3 star kids mostly but did a much better job of evaluating talent and developing it then mackovic or stoops.

Those four coaches though had some tough facilities to sell which is a big leg up for rich rod. I would say Smith and Tomey too didn't have to live with the stigma of being a basketball school like mackovic and stoops did. Tomey maybe near the end.

I think rich rods system like Oregons doesn't require all four and five star recruits but you definitely need some. You need a stud QB and stud RB's. You can get by with good quick WRs ala grant but you need a lot of them, think about Oregon has one of the WR done anything in the NFL. You need the right type of lineman who are athletic but don't have to be space eaters and on defense you need guys who can put pressure on the QB and guys in the secondary who can create turnovers. What you can't have is a 6'0 250lbs walk on DT. I love zellers but man can he get pushed around. Tries his butt off but way too small.

UAEebs86 wrote:Interesting analysis Newportcat.

I think there is a perception by many on the boards that we have more players leave than other schools but I bet if anyone did the analysis we are in line with other schools. Concussions, injuries, grades, tired of football, happens to every school.

It does happen to every school, but I think our ratio of complete misses was greater. I remember Scheer tweeting out a list of all the flame-outs we had during the Stoops era. Not every 4 or 5 star is going to turn out to be a pro, but a majority of our top recruits during that time frame never even contributed, a bunch of 0's and 1's using NC's scale. Whether that's just a string of bad luck during a particular timeframe or whether it's indicative of something that Mack and/or Stoops was doing, I have no idea - but I think our flame-out rate was well above average.