Bear Down Wildcats

After doing the recruiting analysis yesterday, I realized something I have probably known for a while. I have been following the U of A football team since 1999 and the best season they have ever had was this year going 10-4. I think overall we exceeded expectations and did better then many would have projected us to do winning the PAC 12 south. Let me take that back, no one literally no one would have predicted we would finish ahead of UCLA in the Pac-12 south this year.

Anyways while there are many positives, after doing the recruiting analysis i realize unfortunately there is still one major negative in our program that has not changed under rich rod and really has not changed ever. Recruiting

If you look at the teams who do well year in and year out in major conferences, its the teams that are well coached, have great fan support, and I think most importantly bring in top talent every year. Look at USC, they went through some terrible sanctions, almost program killing sanctions, but have been able to consistently beat us because they recruit well. I think Lane and Sark are not great coaches, but they have had the talent not to have any losing seasons and still have winning records. Its crazy. They also have great fan support.

This is why I never worry about Arizona Basketball especially now with our facility upgrades as we have everything in place to win. Great support, great tradition, great facilities and most importantly we consistently are able to recruit well.

When you take an unbiased view of the U of A football program I see the following

Good Coaches - Not Nick Saban or Urban Meyer amazing but I think Rich Rod and his staff are a top 25 staff. They have won BCS games, they have a system, they seem to work well together, but its not like they have all won a national championship together. For U of A they are very good given our recent history.

Facilities - Used to have the worst for any major conference team in the country but now we are on par. The new facility really helps but the vast majority of our stadium is still old and tired looking and our practice facility is an old baseball stadium. We also lack an indoor practice facility which as many of you know i think is a big problem. 5 months out of the year it is f*cking really hot in Tucson and especially in the summer when kids take the majority of visits right now it is a turn off. Also with Lowell Stevens, it just got us on Par because now basically every program in the Pac-12 has or will have in the next two years what we have. Every single one so no advantage there really. Don't mistake what i said for indifference towards it as we needed that facility but when a recruit tours ASU, UCLA, heck even Colorado, Washington State, CAL, etc they will see a nice locker room, nice meeting rooms, nice hot and cold tubs, nice team room, nice weight room etc. What they will see for us is practicing in a baseball stadium with a field and a half and and no indoor practice field to escape the heat from May through October. Problem but easily fixable with about $25M.

Fan Support - For big marquee games, its great and Arizona stadium presents a great atmosphere, for other games it is average at best. Look at the UW game this year, big game in November and the stadium looked 2/3 full. Why, because to many i dont think the game meant anything. In the grand schemes it did, but the casual fan saw it as a whatever game. We win, yeah we go to the alamo bowl, we lose boo we go to the New Mexico bowl. Big deal. Arizona basketball sells out against freaking Oakland university. Fan Support will not come until we consistently win. It came for Mike Stoops before we won and I think the casual fan still feels burned from that. Also for students, the vast majority did not grow up rooting for Arizona Football. They rooted for many other teams growing up so this is something new for them. So they really dont care as much which means for big games the students are there and loud and care but will leave at halftime, for games like UW they are sort of there but then will for sure leave. The Zona Zoo does a great job but remember for USC, a lot of those students have been cheering for USC for years, same for Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, etc. We need to win and be a relevant program to get those casual students too for those non-marquee games

Recruiting - The lifeblood of the program. As Mark Cuban would say, Sales cure all Ills for a company. Recruiting is the Sales for a college football program. Thats why I love college football because in theory any team can win a national championship. I think High School football and NFL football takes a lot more luck. In high school, either the local area produces good players or it doesnt. My high school has sucked at football forever because the area i live in just does not produce good football athletes. Amazing facilities but really nothing you can do about it. Now the private schools can "recruit" which they do but still if you are a high school football coach at a public school, you better pray your area gives you good players to work with because if not there is only so much you can do. For the NFL, you certaintely need a great system but there is a draft and a salary cap. So in theory everyone is on an equal playing field. Now of course not true but right now the Jacksonville Jaguars have every opportunity to become a dynasty with the right coaches and owner. They can draft whoever they want and waive money in front of free agents. Now for many factors they suck and the Patriots are great each year but still in theory they are on an equal playing field.

College Football is different. We could in theory sign all five star kids this year and dominate next year. We could immediately bring in top talent and that can make a big difference and nothing in theory is stopping us from doing so. My high School can not recruit players (well they can but its illegal) and the Patriots can not draft Marcus Marriota (I guess they could but the costs would be Massive). But U of A can sign that McKenzie kid, that big 5 star DT. We can, nothing is stopping us from doing so. Why has our basketball program not had a losing record since forever ago, because over time we consistently recruit great players. While some might not be ranked that way, we have recruited many great players for years. Those players allowed us to get through a bad coaching transition without having a losing record and really fly through it.

My whole point, our football program has had weak recruiting for many many years. Both in the rankings of the players who we recruit, to our ability to evaluate talent, to our ability to develop that talent. It has been bad. And currently our plan is to recruit the same ranked players but focus on evaluating them more (keep in mind that in our first three classes 1/3 of the signed players are not even on our team anymore) and developing them more. The definition of insanity is going the same things over and over again expecting different results. It has never worked for our program to recruit 2 & 3 star kids and win consistently. Never. To me it is the biggest missing ingredient for our program. I was very optimistic about our future recruiting based on the fact our first three classes got better and better and last year was basically a top 25 class. How could we go backwards because ASU is not, neither is UCLA or USC. It will take a lot of luck for us to lose to both USC and UCLA and ever win the Pac-12 south again. I think its insane to think that we can recruit #OKG and our program will become a football power. We have recruited #OKG since forever and it has never worked based on my analysis. A John Mackovic lower ranked three star recruit is no different in my opinion then a Rich Rod lower ranked three star recruit. Some would disagree and the proof will be in the pudding but in my opinion recruiting is the problem with our program. Its why we suck in big games, its why we havent made a rose bowl. We simply have not recruited enough great players. We have had great players but never enough of them together to become a consistent winner or get to the rose bowl.

So instead of trying to find a class full of #OKG's, I would hope Rich Rod and Greg Byrne have hourly conversations on how to improve the facilities or improve whatever needs to be improved to attract better recruits. Ask those top level recruits, what would it take for you to come to U of A.

Now why this post is negative is unfortunately maybe there is nothing we can do, maybe we can not consistently attract classes like last years with a good amount of 4 stars and high 3 star recruits and a sprinkling of some 2 stars. Maybe there is nothing we can do to attract the PHX area recruits consistently or the top level Socal kids. They is a TON of talent within an hour plane flight of Tucson but unfortuantely we have never been able to get it to U of A on a consistent basis. Maybe even with a practice facility or great coaches or great fan support we still will not be able to attract it. If that is true then we should all quit being fans because whats the point of spending so much time following a program that will not ever be successful.

But in my heart, i know that is not true. I know that a program like Oregon can come from even worse circumstances then ours to be at the pinnacle of college football. I know a program like our basketball program can also do the same. In 14 years, Lute took a program that was nothing and won a national championship. Recruiting was a major factor in making that happen. There is no reason why we shouldnt be able to attract top talent from Socal or PHX. Lets figure out the reasons why and work on that. Because once that changes, then everything else should fall into place. Maybe not but again recruiting all #OKG's has never worked.

Thats it, bored over the Holidays and wanted to put my full thoughts on U of A football on paper. Feel free to bash me or disagree and hopefully it leads to fruitful discussions. I am just very wary of believing the #OKG line of thinking, feels like the emperors new clothes to me

For an example of a school that finally had success after years in the doldrums, I would pick one that doesn't have Uncle Phil's Nike money. We are never going to have that.

Va Tech, Baylor, K-State, someone like that.
Not sure who is the best example of hope, but it ain't Nike U.

Coaches: IMO, best fit we might ever have. Great personalities, past success, already taken us to heights not previously achieved. Stubborn yes. IMO the 3-3-5 will always be the albatross

Facilities: Unless we raze the litterbox we got what we got. Maybe a practice field? To think just a few years ago we were dressing in McKale and practicing at a high school yet still being respectable. We are lightyears from where we have been, can't se the facility argument anymore IMO

Fan Support: one word, SUCKS. Always a reason someone can't go. 40K alumns in the Phoenix area and we have 772 wildcat club members, what a joke. I think IF the AD wants to make AZ stadium a fun place to be on Saturdays then we might see an increase in attendance. Winning helps but Stoops proved that wasn't the most important thing

Recruiting: Will always be behind the elite schools for LA talent (USC, UCLA, Oregon), will always be behind the academics of Furd and Cal and UDub, will never get in kids that ASSU and Utah allow in. That puts us with Wazzu and OSU. Unless our administration gives waivers for sports and our coaches use that on at risk kids we lose to schools that actually support there teams in recruiting then we are who we are. We don't need to improvemuch in this area but a little more consistency will help.

We just won 10 games in the regular season. We have been to 6 bowls in 7 seasons. We wonthe south, which has shown it was the toughest division in college football. We beat Oregon on the road.

The sky is no falling Newport

When you take an unbiased view of the U of A football program I see the following

Not sure I buy the unbiased view. Your well written manifesto looks to me like another chapter in the recruiting site rankings versus coaches evaluations debate.

I actually think Coach Rod is on your side. He thinks our level of recruiting needs an upgrade. He is just realistic and long term about his approach.

Coach has signed each year the class he could lock down based on position needs and their passion for football and the reputation of Arizona football. Now with our new facilities, success on the field and proven player development the reputation of Arizona football is increasing and the level of classes will slowly improve.

We only have a few spots left to fill this year and we may pick up a gem or 2 over the next month, but the real results will be seen in the out years. The coaches will always trust their own evaluations over the recruiting sites. The change will be that more top talent will be willing to visit Arizona and give us a look and some will end up committing. With that our recruit rankings will steadily improve and may eventually make some of the unbiased observers happy.

For me, I just focus on the results on the field. In Coach Rod's first 3 years he has won more games than any 3 year span in Arizona football history! In addition he has coached up the nation's top rusher for 2 years and the nation's top defensive player this past year (who was one of his non-4 star recruits). That along with sunshine, warmth, and girls in shorts all year should open a lot of doors for our staff.

Some good stuff...

Newportcat wrote:
Facilities - What they will see for us is practicing in a baseball stadium with a field and a half and and no indoor practice field to escape the heat from May through October. Problem but easily fixable with about $25M.

This needs to be the #1 investment priority. A facility akin to Oregon's that doubles as a game-day "fan zone" (yes, with beer with entry/exit to the stadium permitted) would also help sell tickets & keep butts in the seats in the 2nd half.

Newportcat wrote: Fan Support

I don't see this as a problem. Unless we do something stupid like jack the ticket prices too high, the fans will continue to come with wins - at least, as much as any other comparable program.

Newportcat wrote: Recruiting - Why has our basketball program not had a losing record since forever ago, because over time we consistently recruit great players.

Basketball is so different than football, especially in the age of 1-and-done, that I don't think it's helpful to bring hoops into the conversation. When schools like Butler, Gonzaga, and Creighton are more successful and relevant than all of our conference competition, I don't think there's any valuable parallels to be drawn between basketball success and football success.

Newportcat wrote: Maybe not but again recruiting all #OKG's has never worked.

Actually, to paraphrase Margaret Mead, it's the only thing that ever has.

We're never going to be able to out-talent UCLA and USC. It's just not realistic. I do agree that we need to figure out the magic sauce to get a larger number of top-tier recruits to come here - however, our bread and butter is always going to need to be getting OKG's.

My perception is that our style of play dictates a level of conditioning that isn't for everyone, which is why the staff often comments on finding guys that don't just like football, they LOVE football.
Collecting 4- and 5-stars that aren't on board with the system and don't buy in puts us where Stoops was, with a bunch of great classes on paper that didn't translate to the field.

Now, that doesn't mean that we scour the earth looking for the next Tedy Bruschi or Scooby Wright, those guys don't grow on trees and finding them is as much about luck than anything else. It means that we recognize our strengths & weaknesses and target the 4 & 5-stars that fit the system and that have that OKG-style love for the game in addition to the natural talent. Maybe there will only be one or two of those we can get in any given recruiting cycle...but as long as we're getting the guys we want, we'll be fine.

Newportcat wrote:
Good Coaches -they seem to work well together

I believe this is our secret sauce and how we will get to where we want to be.

Typically a coaching staff is constructed like Todd Graham's is - a bunch of guys that are looking to climb the coaching tree and get to their next job. RR's staff, with a few exceptions like Ragle, is overwhelmingly a family.

We don't have to worry about our OC or DC becoming the next hot head coaching commodity. As long as RR's here, the bulk of that staff is going to be here. That's pretty unique, and I think that's going to be the calling card that will differentiate us from our peers.

We have a true culture that the staff cultivates, and their loyalty to each other is deeper than the catch phrases. USC, UCLA, ASU will never have that - and while that won't appeal to every kid, it'l appeal to enough kids to keep our talent level on par.

UAEebs86 wrote:For an example of a school that finally had success after years in the doldrums, I would pick one that doesn't have Uncle Phil's Nike money. We are never going to have that.

Va Tech, Baylor, K-State, someone like that.
Not sure who is the best example of hope, but it ain't Nike U.

K-State is a good comparison, but I would pick Wisconsin. Contends for conference championships and is nationally relevant on a consistent basis despite having (generally) 2nd-tier talent and no real natural advantages in terms of recruiting base etc. It's hard to remember but 20 years ago, Wisconsin and Minnesota were pretty much identical. Alvarez instilled that culture, got them to that first Rose Bowl back in the early 90's, and then they've been able to keep it going, basically by sticking to their plan and not deviating from it. While RR's on-the-field style is as different than Wisconsin's as you can get, I think that the consistency of our culture can breed the same kind of success.

I think that RR & Co are going to get us to that level if they choose to stay here. We'll never be a dynasty, lording over USC and UCLA. However, I think this staff (supported by continued investments and growing fan support) can get us to where we're winning a South championship (or its future equivalent) once every 3-4 years and maybe have a chance at a magical playoff run once or twice in 10-15 years (if they stay that long) while staying competitive and relevant in the years that we aren't contending.

I think that sooner or later, we're getting to the promised land (a conference championship) with this staff. What I think was frustrating about this season is that we had several opportunities (USC as well as P12 champ & Fiesta Bowl) to catapult ourselves that much further ahead of schedule, and we missed them. However, that doesn't change the overall upward trajectory.

Good posts.

I caught a little of the 1986 Rose Bowl replay. UCLA over Iowa. The Hawkeye staff was Head Coach Hayden Fry, with assistants Barry Alvarez and Bill Snyder. What a staff! And when they went away, so did Iowa, for the most part. But K-State and Wisconsin rose up.

Coaching is so critical.

Re Recruiting: RR is clearly going about this by getting guys they like (not worrying about the stars) and then putting them through the S&C program and redshirting them. Once the level of players is up to where he can substitute as much as he wants, he believes he will get wins and then the better players will have heard of Arizona and be willing to visit and commit. I'm thinking that RR is looking to year 4 or 5 for that equilibrium.

This year might be an anomaly along the lines of Miller's DWill almost FF year in year 2. That year really helped accelerate Arizona's progress but remember they took a step back the next year after there were a few that left. Hopefully, this year will be a big step forward that stays (this year's team was pretty lucky if you think about the games).

Newportcat wrote: Fan Support

I don't see this as a problem. Unless we do something stupid like jack the ticket prices too high, the fans will continue to come with wins - at least, as much as any other comparable program.

Newportcat wrote: Maybe not but again recruiting all #OKG's has never worked.

Actually, to paraphrase Margaret Mead, it's the only thing that ever has.

We're never going to be able to out-talent UCLA and USC. It's just not realistic. I do agree that we need to figure out the magic sauce to get a larger number of top-tier recruits to come here - however, our bread and butter is always going to need to be getting OKG's.

My perception is that our style of play dictates a level of conditioning that isn't for everyone, which is why the staff often comments on finding guys that don't just like football, they LOVE football.
Collecting 4- and 5-stars that aren't on board with the system and don't buy in puts us where Stoops was, with a bunch of great classes on paper that didn't translate to the field.

Now, that doesn't mean that we scour the earth looking for the next Tedy Bruschi or Scooby Wright, those guys don't grow on trees and finding them is as much about luck than anything else. It means that we recognize our strengths & weaknesses and target the 4 & 5-stars that fit the system and that have that OKG-style love for the game in addition to the natural talent. Maybe there will only be one or two of those we can get in any given recruiting cycle...but as long as we're getting the guys we want, we'll be fine.

Disagree on two points:

1) Newport Cat is correct regarding fan support. We had games this year with 2 nationally ranked teams in AZ stadium and couldn't fill it......Fan Support is most DEFINITELY a problem. Our football fans sometimes resemble UCLA's basketball fans......they always find a reason not to attend the games

2) Newport Cat is also dead on regarding recruiting. Your statement "but as long as we're getting the guys we want, we'll be fine" couldn't be more wrong. We have NEVER been fine just getting the guys we want or the OKG guys, thats why some of us expect to die before the Cats ever play a postseason game in the Rose Bowl. I stated this in another thread but I don't expect RRod or any UA coach to compete with the boys from LA but we can certainly expect any UA coach to recruit at least as well as the Used-Car-Salesman in Tempe. Take a look at the scums current recruiting.......mainly 3 star talent with some 4 & 5 star talent sprinkled in. You don't see Cracker going head to head with Wyoming and San Jose State for 2 star players. Continuing to rationalize about every 2 star player being another Scooby isn't going to cut it. We need to upgrade our recruiting. For starters we shouldn't be passing out scholarships to low-level recruits in May & June....it almost seems as if RRod either wants to wrap up recruiting fast so he can head to Florida for some golf/fishing or he doesn't believe he can compete with the middle/lower level players in the PAC12 (asu/utah/Cal/OSU/CO/WSU) for the higher ranked recruits. Continuing to rationalize with the "OKG" mantra isn't going to cut it........Denial is not a river in Egypt. WSU now has 5 commitments from 4 star players......are we really saying we can't compete with WS Freaking U???????

Someone needs to provide a list of teams that have never won a conference championship that have markedly better attendance than we do.

i guess we can keep insulting and trying to shame Tucson into supporting the team, but that hasn't worked yet. Any better ideas?

Does anyone really think we are passing on 5 stars in favor of OKG's? What do you want to do to get them? start cheating?

I do hope to see further facility and stadium improvements. Hell, if we can't tear it down and build a new one, maybe we should look at retrofitting it with an air conditioned dome. I'm guessing that would be cost prohibitive.

We recruit the best we can get and try to coach up the rest. Hopefully, it gets a little better each year but kids today are f***ing punks and their parents are worse. We get someone who really wants to be here and they get talked into going somewhere else. Punks like Tabor and Hale. What was the name of that dual threat QB who went to UCLA a few years ago? What is he doing now?

i wish I knew the answer, but we are getting good publicity and every year the media talks about RR's success here. I'd say our window of opportunity is open til about 2017, if next year is the setback year I think it might be.

If we aren't rolling by 2017, then we will never be anything but a basketball school and I f***ing hate basketball.

jimson wrote:Someone needs to provide a list of teams that have never won a conference championship that have markedly better attendance than we do.

Yup, everyone's struggling with this, even Alabama of all places, and I don't begrudge anyone who'd rather watch on their big-screen HDTV rather than sit in the nosebleeds. Getting those last 5,000 people to show up won't significantly alter our home field advantage, our revenue, or our recruiting. (ASU knocking a f*cking hole in their stadium to reduce capacity and doing ticket deals on Groupon should be clues that it's not just us that have to work hard to get the stadium filled.) Byrne should be worried about it, that's his job. We need to stop wringing our hands over it.

jimson wrote: Does anyone really think we are passing on 5 stars in favor of OKG's? What do you want to do to get them? start cheating?

Exactly. There's only a handful of ways you suddenly turbocharge your recruiting:

• Get an Uncle Phil or T.Boone Pickens to write a blank check - if it was going to happen, would have happened by now.
• Lie to players, tell them they'll start right away, etc. - slimy and shortsighted, kills team chemistry
• Go nuclear with negative recruiting - might work in short term but again ends up hurting in the long run
• Take chances on players who are borderline academically or have character issues - chances are high these players never see the field unless you:
• Flat-out cheat

If the Pirate is pulling a bunch of 4-stars to that godforsaken place, I'm guessing that at least one of the above are happening, and I'll worry about it when he actually posts a winning record and acquires a whiff of relevancy.

Yes we missed some opportunities to have a truly magical season this year. Yes we looked like crap most of the last two games. Frustrating for sure. However.

• RRs' worst season (8-5) was unsurpassed in the prior 15 years and only a handful of times in the past 30 years.
• Each year under RR has seen a clear progression, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
• Despite implementing radically different systems on both sides of the ball, the team never "bottomed out" as most do due to talent mismatches and transfers. We had those talent mismatches and transfers (i.e. Garman and Savage leaving, leaving us w/ B.J.) and yet we still posted winning seasons.
• Our team has represented the school well off the field. The few incidents we've had have reflected on the individuals, not the program. That may not be important to everybody, but it's important to me.
• All of this has been done in the midst of a football arms race, with the TV money flowing into stud coaches and facilities upgrades. It's not as if the rest of the conference has decided to abdicate - even the bottom rung of WSU, OSU, and Rado are pumping money in.

So, with all that, and having just completed the most successful season we've had in 15 years with underclassmen leading our offense and defense.....apparently it's clear to the more enlightened among us here that RR & co have no idea what they are doing. /sarcasm

Call me a kool-aid drinker, but I have no reason to think that as long as Byrne and RR are here, we are going to continue to progress and ultimately win our fair share of championships. They haven't given us any reason to doubt so far.

Always has come down to what level of success is acceptable. Suppose it's a moving scale. 10 win season and winning Pac12 South exceeded any progression I expected.

Not sure if Arizona at the beginning, middle or end of a really good run. Relative speaking for Arizona football. Three consecutive winning years that is historical (for Arizona).

Agree with much of the manifesto but want to add some context that Rich Rod and Company achieving things rarely done, if ever at Arizona. Sets up a new standard. Put up a 7-8 win season next season and I'm sure there will be some disappointed.

So progress.

Looking at Arizona pac12 conference records, it's rare for Arizona to improve their conference wins by 3 games year over year. It's only happened twice before. Dick Tomey 1987-1988 and 1997 - 1998. Keep in mind this team went from 4-5 conference last year to 7-2 this year. In fact, it's pretty uncommon to improve by two conference wins for Arizona since Pac12. Tomey did once 1992-1993 and Stoops (going from 2 wins to 4) 2005-2006 and Rich Rod 2011-2012.

I do believe that Arizona needs to improve in the recruiting area to sustain this level and to push ahead to get into a Rose Bowl. Which for me is my hope. But that's personal to each fan on level of success.

I know the argument OKG and developmental etc. But again there are not any recent examples of Pac12 team going to Rose Bowl with the whole class ratings that Arizona is achieving. Can win lots of games and even win the South. But until Arizona goes all the way to put up that example there's nothing to hang my hat on (Rose Bowl). I was hoping Miss St. would achieve better because their recruiting class rating similar. But in the end, they couldn't hang for the top rung. to be an example of defying recruiting ratings.

The OKG thing... Yes, I do believe Arizona's staff excels at development. Especially since they seem to still include/target "tweeners" on the defensive side. I'm not sure this is a recruiting issue or not. Whether this is long-term deal and whether consistent number elite recruits don't come to Arizona because of scheme and belief hurts their chances for NFL exposure/development (QB/DL/LB). Over the FBS years, Rich Rod and Casteel have had very similar number of Offensive/Defensive players drafted in NFL. Not a lot, but some. Rich Rod's Offensive players drafted don't significantly outnumber defensive players drafted. Not sure a perception or reality thing.

Keep in mind Arizona staff does offer elite (4/5 star) recruits. So I assume they fit the OKG criteria. So I assume Arizona staff would love to get more of them to commit. Don't think they would turn them all away if they wanted to commit. OKG not just for the 2/3 stars. Speed, size, skill, depth and desire/ambition matter. Especially for the long grueling season.

Listening to Greg Byrne Fiesta Bowl interview circuit, he couple times dropped the facilities line. But he also added couple times a ever so brief/vague football specific "future plans they hope to have ready". I assume this includes indoor facility.

Assume that's critical to keep this coaching staff. One of its strengths is the core staff's time together and how well they get along. The stability but adding scheme evolution and innovation. So much more money now coming in with the new TV deal and with the new CFB deal. Eventually twice the $$ (or more) than what they've had last decade. Facilities stay IF/when coaches / ADs go.

Time to act.