Colorado @ Arizona discussion thread

[azgreg]

Colorado vs Arizona
11/2/18 7:30 PM MST
Tucson, AZ
Arizona Stadium
TV: FS1

[azgreg]

Cats off their biggest win while the Buffs are coming off their biggest loss. Who knows what's going to happen.

Line opens Cats -4

[ASUHATER!]

2 weeks ago Colorado looked really good

[azgreg]

2 weeks ago Colorado looked really good

While they didn't play anybody they did what you're supposed to do when you're not playing anybody. Beat them. They have one decent win and one terrible loss.

Here's their results so far:

Colorado State W 45-13
Nebraska W 33-28
New Hampshire W 45-14
UCLA W 38-16
Arizona State W 28-21
USC L 31-20
15 Washington L 27-13
Oregon State L 41-34 OT

[blackjacker]

The Oregon win is such an outlyer, i can't begin to get a feel for this game.

[azgreg]

[PieceOfMeat]

I've got another good feeling about this game.

Probably means we get crushed.

[Spaceman Spiff]

This is a battle of two bipolar teams.

If Shenault is out for the Buffs, that is huge. He's easily their most talented player and dependable playmaker. He singlehandedly won them a few games, particularly Nebraska.

Beyond that, which teams show up? We're trending up and they're trending down, but every time I feel like that, we drop a disappointing one like UCLA.

We literally just need to do what we did vs Oregon and things will be good. Can we produce that quality two games in a row, though? I can't overstate how much Shenault being out would help us. He makes their offense go.

[azcat49]

IF the team that showed for Oregon shows up Friday night we should be good. We are playing very physical at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. CU actually plays the run well on defense but the way we used our short passing game against Oregon should make this interesting as we will have to see of CU brings more players closer to the LOS. We might hit some big plays in the passing game

[Newportcat]

Having followed the program the least amount in forever, I did see we did pull out the traditional out of nowhere win against Oregon this past weekend where everything goes our way and we look great.

This to me was not shocking at all. From reading some of the posts here we had gotten to the traditional point in the Arizona football season where even the Die Hard fans had given up. That point where the people like myself who have a glass half empty view of the program start looking right. When it is hard to defend the team and that rose bowl looks so out of reach and everyone is giving up except for extreme die hards and then BOOM, Arizona football sucks you back in. Just like 2016 when we beat ASU or 2013 when we beat Oregon or 2012 when we beat USC/Oklahoma State or 2007 when we beat Oregon or 2005 when we beat UCLA, 2006 when we beat Cal, 2009 when we beat USC or 2004 when we beat ASU, etc

Then the half full people say "Told you so, you whiny bitch" and the half empty people are a bit dumbfounded

Whenever things feels like we have no chance of winning it always seem Arizona pulls out some miracle win where not only do we win, but we look good to.

So now comes the Colorado game where traditionally Arizona will lose. Like literally after all the games I mentioned above. And not only do we lose but we lose big or in heartbreaking fashion. Crushed, destroyed and you don't know what to think. Think Penn State in 1999, or Washington in 2005, Nebraska in 2009, etc

Right when you think maybe Arizona has turned some sort of corner....BOOM DITCH AHEAD!

Then the half empty people like me say "TOLD YOU SO, TYPICAL ARIZONA FOOTBALL!!!!" and then the Half full people say "SHUT UP ASU FAN" and presumably cry in the corner at the Arcadia Tavern.

The beauty of sports maybe this year is different and maybe Arizona football has changed. I sincerely doubt it and do miss calling the half full people out for their irrational exuberance surrounding our program. That is what I miss the most about Arizona football. Not the actual teams or games but all the good banter since Arizona football is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. It is never that bad or that good so its so fun to banter about. Half the time the Half empty's are right and the other half the half fulls are right. Except under Mackovic, that was all Half empty.

My prediction, Colorado beats us but hopefully I am wrong

[PHXCATS]

Lots of insight for someone who gave up football

[Newportcat]

You know who is not an enigma wrapped in a mystery.....Machina

He is always right on point

[azgreg]

A lot of depression over at AllBuffs.

https://www.allbuffs.com/threads/offici ... s1.135664/" target="_blank

Looks like they had the dreaded "Players Only Meeting."

[PieceOfMeat]

Game Thread is up

[ByJoveByJingle]

A lot of depression over at AllBuffs.

https://www.allbuffs.com/threads/offici ... s1.135664/" target="_blank

Looks like they had the dreaded "Players Only Meeting."

The advanced stats thing is interesting—gives us a 50/50 chance with CU and ASU and a low chance against WSU. Gotta win those two games.

[ramcat]

Take care of Buffs and I like our chances. Got two weeks to prepare for Cougs, who play at Boulder week before, and then they have Huskies 6 days later.

[Carcassdragger]

We're winning this one, guys. By about a touchdown. Go Cats!

[azgreg]

Looks like Rado is wearing surrender whites tomorrow night.

[azgreg]

Can somebody please show this to Khalil Tate.

[PieceOfMeat]

Can somebody please show this to Khalil Tate.

The only place Tate is running that fast is in highlights from last year.

[azgreg]

That's what I like about you POM, you're a glass half full kind of guy.

[EVCat]

Tate needed the rest and needed the perspective of watching someone else run the show. He came back rusty, but Oregon's defensive game plan didn't account for a 5'6" back taking 30+ touches, I am guessing. Their DBs were awful, their DL beat up, and our defense dialed up some new pressure looks and made Herbert feel like he was in a game. Oregon lacked a lot of options on offense, as they have one good WR and a trash line. We took advantage one week after nearly overcoming a slow start with a former walk on with an arm like a walk on and a willingness to run but no speed to actually turn the corner.

Keys, but aren't they for every game?

Pressure on the QB. Changes everything. We have pretty decent DBs if they don't have to hold coverage for 5 seconds
OL health. We are paper thin on the line.
Possession. Not traditional "grind it out" possession, but we need some drives to let our defense rest. There is no depth there.
Tate. Would like to see him drop the deep ball in a bit better, more like we have seen from him before. He has a bum leg and shouldn't run unless it is right there for him. But he needs to take those opportunities, even if he steps out or slides, because we need someone watching him.

I have no idea if we will be able to pressure Colorado...Oregon's OL was junk, but we did send pressure from some new spots. I don't think we can continue to ride JJ for 30+ touches, but if he can handle 18-20 carries and a couple of catches, that would be perfect. Tate needs to be more accurate on his deep ball...if only one time. There were TDs left on the field. Possession is something we can control, but when pushing tempo helps, we can't ignore it for possession.

And we are at home and catch Colorado reeling. That isn't a sideline that is used to success, and they probably feel like "here we go again." Great time to catch them. Their confidence has to be low, and I can only imagine the level of open and under-the-breath finger pointing that follows a loss to a team like OSU in the manner they lost. Hit them early.

33-27 Cats.

[Carcassdragger]

We need Mariscal to make the most of his opportunities and for the O line to give him those opportunities, since I expect Brightwell to be out.

[Merkin]

Pressure on the QB. Changes everything.

I'm not a football guy, but never understood Casteel and Yates rushing 3, and dropping back 8 into coverage on 3rd and long.

Automatic first down when you give a decent QB 5 or 6 seconds to throw the ball.

[EVCat]

Pressure on the QB. Changes everything.

I'm not a football guy, but never understood Casteel and Yates rushing 3, and dropping back 8 into coverage on 3rd and long.

Automatic first down when you give a decent QB 5 or 6 seconds to throw the ball.

The idea is if you can't get there with 4 or 5, better to drop into coverage. There have been times the last couple of years that I was begging to no one in particular to NOT blitz on 3rd and 5 or more because we simply couldn't get there and it was a sure 1st down, where with 3 rush/8 drop, the intermediate stuff clogs up and requires a deeper throw. More time, sure...maybe. But I have seen us over the years send "the house" and simply not alter the offensive play in the slightest. And that is the worst position to be in. Better to bend but not break and get a turnover chance or a smaller field to defend than to send people who won't get there. So I won't talk bad about the decision to send 3, though even in the Casteel 3-3-5, we would send a 4th.

What has changed this year? Well, some more push from our DL, most notably in the middle. It does zero good to get awesome edge rush if your middle DL is still at the line of scrimmage. Think Reed and Elmore, think Brock Osweiler running for 1000 yards against us....huge running lanes when the edges speed rush up field with no move to the middle and there is no middle pressure. Also, what I saw last week was some pressure from different spots, with quick roll coverage to cover the blitzer. Stuff that works in little bits and pieces, but show it too much and you are going to get beat deep. The key is, like a boxer, to keep moving...jab and defend, jab and defend. We changed the point of attack against Oregon a fair amount. But a blitzer has zero effectiveness if there is a free blocker because the DL is neutralized. You need either a clear path to the QB (rare), or enough push up front to keep blockers engaged to slip someone through on a overload.

I can remember a game early in the Stoops era at New Mexico where we let an otherwise overmatched team beat us with constant 3rd and long conversions against ineffective blitzing. That was a 4-3. In a perfect 3-3-5, you are mixing up the location of the 4th rusher without giving up anything in coverage, but we never really saw that happen a lot, or, at least, it was not effective.

We need some 3 man rushes with everyone in coverage or squeezing the field. We need some blitzes. But we HAVE to get there when we do bring pressure.

[PieceOfMeat]

Has there been any insider post abour Brightwell's injury?

[azgreg]

Has there been any insider post abour Brightwell's injury?

[azgreg]

I'm hearing that Laviska Shenault is out for Colorado.

[Carcassdragger]

We're winning this one, guys. By about a touchdown. Go Cats!

Yup.