Bear Down Wildcats

I just don't know.

I honestly could see this team beating every team left on the schedule except for Oregon, and I could honestly see them losing to every team left. I just don't know what this team is actually made of.

Maybe that's the nature of having a first year quarterback and a leaky defensive system, but I would feel a lot better about the direction of this team if they curb stomped Cal.

I think we can grind out wins vs the gimmies on our schedule. I just don't know what we're going to be when we come up against the big boys. Cal should be a win, so should 'Rado, WSU (even in Pullman), Washington too since we're at home and their D sucks. But how will we be against USC, UCLA, Oregon, and ASSU? I think we've got good chances to win USC and ASSU, I think we'll lose vs. Oregon, and if Hundley is out for our game we've got a great shot against UCLA, even if we're away.

I just know that we've got a really good young backfield with high ceilings and lots of room for improvement. I hope we improve enough each week to keep winning!

With our offense we have a chance against everyone if we stay consistent. Just not sure what we have defensively.

I do think teams that can run the ball in conference have the upper hand and with our line that is not a worry to me.stopping the run is much more troublesome without leaving our corners on an island

Chicat wrote:I just don't know.

I honestly could see this team beating every team left on the schedule except for Oregon, and I could honestly see them losing to every team left. I just don't know what this team is actually made of.

Maybe that's the nature of having a first year quarterback and a leaky defensive system, but I would feel a lot better about the direction of this team if they curb stomped Cal.

Generally agree except we should beat Colorado.

I expect we will also be favored against Cal (guessing 2 touchdowns). After that it gets dicey. We will be a slight favorite at WSU, underdog against Utah, tossup against Washington and underdogs against everyone else.
If we take care of business against Cal/Colorado that would get us to 5 wins. We have a reasonable chance to split WSU/Utah which gets us to 6...........maybe with one upset (Washington or asu without Kelly) we get to 7. I don't see much better than that.

We have questions but so does everyone else. USC just lost to a team we clobbered last year. ASSU defense is leakier then ours and they may have lost there QB for the rest of the year. UDub has been very unimpressive and UCLA has struggled.

I think the south is up for grabs.no one will roll us, not even Oregon. I would be very surprised if we didnt win 5 games in conference with our runninggame, OLine and overall offense

Need to go 5-4 in conference to make me content. 6-3 to be really really happy

Still see six wins in conference and a 9-3 finish overall.

Beat ASU as one of 5 conference wins and I'm satisfied.

If we lose to ASU I will need to have 7 conference wins to make up for it.

azcat49 wrote:We have questions but so does everyone else. USC just lost to a team we clobbered last year. ASSU defense is leakier then ours and they may have lost there QB for the rest of the year. UDub has been very unimpressive and UCLA has struggled.

I think the south is up for grabs.no one will roll us, not even Oregon. I would be very surprised if we didnt win 5 games in conference with our runninggame, OLine and overall offense

What has me baffled is at crunch time when we really needed a stop we get it but for some reason we can't do it consistently. As an example, we're up 28-21 and Nevada has the ball as we just scored to go up 7 late in the 3rd qtr. Nevada gets a 4 yard rush on first down then we tackle Fajardo for a 4 yard loss, then a sack on 3rd down. We get the ball and go down and score another TD to go up 14. I don't get how we can't do that on a regular basis?

The thing I'm encouraged by is that we could have very easily won the last 2 games by much more than what the final score indicated. Anu is getting better and he's learning from his mistakes and is only going to get better. You look at the Unlv game and how many passes that were sure fire TD's that he over threw? At least 3? Last night he threw 2 perfect passes that many didn't think he could make on a consistent basis. The kid is getting more and more comfortable in this offense.

I also think he's doing a great job picking his spots to run the ball. He slid short last night for the FD and I think we score at the very least a FG if he gets that FD. In a similar situation you know that he will probably dive for the first down instead of sliding.

On the play where he threw it to Austin Hill on the first drive of the 2nd half where it went for no gain and we needed 2 yards - I think he runs for it the next time or he makes sure that he throws it where the WR is ahead of the FD marker. Both of those drives change the complexion of the game imho. I think put in the same situation again, Anu gets the FD and we put another crooked number up on the score board.

I honestly have no idea if RR is going to run some of the stuff that he showed in Fall Camp but my guess is he will because of the effectiveness of said play(s), but either way we're in good shape offensively. This offense is going to average 40 plus a game and there were times last night that Nevada had no idea what was coming on the next play - run or pass it had no idea and it couldn't stop it either way. The biggest difference in what we do and say Wazzu is our ability to rush the ball at anytime and rush it effectively.

I don't think our D is ever going to be a shut down D - it's the nature of the beast that is our offense. But again, if we can hold teams to 24 points on average, we will win 9-10 games TY. The key to that is our offense has to get into a rhythm early and put points on the board early and get a lead. I don't know what the stat is buy my guess is we win the vast majority of our games if we score first and play with a lead. I could be wrong but I think the Stanford game might be the one game where we had a lead for a large portion of the game and didn't win. RR loves to get a lead at the half and get the ball to start the 2nd half and put another score on the board to really put pressure on the other team.

We're gonna be just fine

ESPN favors us going 5-4.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/tea ... &year=2014

Salty wrote:We're gonna be just fine

I guess that depends on your definition of "fine".

Said 9-3 and still believe it.

Watched the game yesterday. The defense was not as bad as everyone made it sound. I actually believe Reno's offense is better then many here were giving credit for.

Our offense is bad ass. Love what Anu is going to do for the program. Love that @LSU isn't on the schedule.

dc, I'd guess part of the reason the D gets stops in crunch time when they can't elsewhere is because of the emphasis RichRod puts on playing under pressure, the whole "comfortable being uncomfortable" bit. If it's late in the game and the other team absolutely has to score, Arizona isn't going to panic. UTSA did. Nevada did (Fajardo should have hit that throw, like he had all night.) Another example - After Nevada tied the game and Arizona was getting ready to get the offense on the field, Solomon was grinning. That's not the look of a freshman who's gripping under pressure.

CalStateTempe wrote:Said 9-3 and still believe it.

Watched the game yesterday. The defense was not as bad as everyone made it sound. I actually believe Reno's offense is better then many here were giving credit for.

Our offense is bad ass. Love what Anu is going to do for the program. Love that @LSU isn't on the schedule.

I agree w/ all this & I think the offense is just scratching the surface. I'm pretty sure there are wrinkles we haven't seen yet (for example, I don't think we've seen a fly sweep or a fake fly sweep to this point, even though we know they're in the playbook). Hopefully we don't have to pull out all the stops against Cal and can have something up our sleeve for Oregon.

As it was mentioned before, the Pac12 South is wide open this year. And that was before Hundley went out with an injury. Anu needs to keep developing chemistry with his receivers. It seems like Jones is his go to. And it seems like he and Hill need to get on the same page at times. But that will just get better as the season rolls around.

The one infuriating thing for me is we're giving up these 3rd and long plays that keep our D on the field. Even Nevada's final drive, the 4th and Long was almost caught for a 20 yard gain. It was happening against UTSA as well.

Chicat wrote:

Salty wrote:We're gonna be just fine

I guess that depends on your definition of "fine".

We're not gonna play for the national championship, but we'll have a winning record in the PAC-12 and probably win 8 or 9 games.

I wanted to look at how the team compares to last year's team going into PAC 12 play so I pulled up this year's Arizona game notes for Cal and last year's for Washington.





For this year, 2014


Not sure I learned anything new from the comparison, but I found it at least interesting.

Is there a SOS comparison for our non-conference schedules?

Because the disparity in points allowed, yardage and Red Zone percentage gives me pause.

catgrad97 wrote:Is there a SOS comparison for our non-conference schedules?

Because the disparity in points allowed, yardage and Red Zone percentage gives me pause.

This year #41 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... s-by-other
Last year #82 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... 2014-01-07

azgreg wrote:

catgrad97 wrote:Is there a SOS comparison for our non-conference schedules?

Because the disparity in points allowed, yardage and Red Zone percentage gives me pause.

This year #41 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... s-by-other
Last year #82 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... 2014-01-07

Schedule twice as hard, yet still scoring similar numbers WITHOUT Ka'Deem, and with a RS Frosh. That isn't too bad. Defense gives up similar amounts of yards, but needs to stiffen up int the RedZone. Not too bad.

I'll take it. Great find on SOS Azgreg.

But there have always been chicken littles around here...

qwertyus wrote:

azgreg wrote:

catgrad97 wrote:Is there a SOS comparison for our non-conference schedules?

Because the disparity in points allowed, yardage and Red Zone percentage gives me pause.

This year #41 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... s-by-other
Last year #82 http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foo ... 2014-01-07

Schedule twice as hard, yet still scoring similar numbers WITHOUT Ka'Deem, and with a RS Frosh. That isn't too bad. Defense gives up similar amounts of yards, but needs to stiffen up int the RedZone. Not too bad.

Defense needs to improve dramatically, IMO. Offense looks better - less one dimensional. Reminds me of 2012... Shudder.

UNLV and UTSA are both better than last year's versions, UTSA especially, and we got them on the road. Nevada is a much better team than NAU. We're starting a freshman QB, freshman RB, and we lost our best CB who has been replaced by a redshirt freshman. I'm not really too worried about anything; yeah, there'll be some L's on the record but I'm waiting to see just what we have once we're a few more games into the season.

Some good numbers to let us know how we compare to the rest of the conference at the beginning of PAC12 play. From Kyle Bonagura at the ESPN blog:

Cal ranks third in the Pac-12, converting on 51.5 percent of its third-down chances.

Arizona ranks No. 8 nationally and No. 1 in the Pac-12 on offense, averaging 582.7 yards per game.

Cal ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12 in rush defense (113 yards per game) and Arizona is No. 3 (116.0)

National individual leaders

Passing touchdowns
t1. Connor Halliday, WSU — 12
t13. Sefo Liufau, Colorado — 8
t13. Marcus Mariota, Oregon — 8
t13. Cody Kessler, USC — 8
t13. Anu Solomon, Arizona — 8

Rushing yards
3. D.J. Foster, Arizona State — 510
4. Nick Wilson, Arizona — 449

Receiving yards
4. Isiah Myers, WSU — 423
10. Nelson Spruce, Colorado — 346

Yards from scrimmage
1. Foster, ASU — 649
9. Wilson, Arizona — 470

Field goals
3. Casey Skowron, Arizona — 7

Pac-12 team stats

Offensive touchdown drive percentage
1. Oregon — 56.8
2. Utah — 50
3. Arizona State — 45.2
4. Cal — 40.7
5. Arizona — 36.8
6. Washington State — 35
7. Washington — 34.2
8. Stanford — 33.3
9. USC — 30
10. Colorado — 25
11. Oregon State — 23.3
12. UCLA — 23.1

Defensive touchdown drive percentage
1. Stanford — 2.8
2. Oregon — 15.8
3. Arizona — 17.9
4. Arizona State — 18.6
5. Cal — 19.2
6. Utah — 19.4
7. UCLA — 20
8. USC — 20.5
9. Oregon State — 20.7
10. Washington State — 24.4
11. Washington — 26.3
12. Colorado — 35

Offensive 3-and-out percentage
1. Arizona — 5.3
2. Stanford — 6.1
3. Colorado — 10
3. Washington State — 10
5. Cal — 14.8
6. UCLA — 15.4
7. Oregon — 16.2
8. Washington — 18.4
t9. Oregon State — 20
t9. USC — 20
t11. Arizona State — 21.4
t11. Utah — 21.4

Defensive 3-and-out percentage
1. Utah — 45.2
2. Stanford — 38.9
3. Arizona — 35.9
4. Washington State — 31.7
5. Oregon State — 27.6
6. Washington — 26.3
7. UCLA — 25
t8. USC — 23.1
t8. Cal — 23.1
10. Arizona State — 20.9
11. Colorado — 20
12. Oregon — 15.8

From PAC-12.com: