Arizona in the 2015 NBA Draft

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Jun 19, 2015 4:53 pm

Maybe this is the wrong forum, but here's a fivethirtyeight breakdown projecting player success in the NBA draft. Notice anything about how SJ, RHJ, Ash and TJ rate in a statistical prediction vs the holistic "experts?"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pro ... aft-class/

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Jun 20, 2015 6:38 am

Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.

It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Sat Jun 20, 2015 10:09 am

That analysis also includes a team performance metric into his model.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:18 am

luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.

It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.

I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:57 am

rgdeuce wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.

It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.
I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.

I'm less convinced about Russell, and I see Okafor as a potential star. People rip his D, but it isn't like he can't improve on D as he plays in the pros. Russell was pretty sieve-like on D, so I don't really getting slotting him as higher potential than Okafor based on that factor.

Mudiay and Porzingis have the superstar tools. I feel better about Mudiay getting there. Porzingis is a boom/bust if I've ever seen one.

Towns and Winslow has the highest floors in the draft. This is an intriguing one because there's a lot of depth.

I remain a fan of the 538 analysis above (homeristically because it rates Arizona players highly). Guys like RHJ and TJ will fall (or not get picked) but a tough guy who can be a good to elite defender has more NBA potential than the draft usually reflects. We tend to produce a few of those guys.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:11 pm

To clarify, those were in addition to Stanley and Okafor. Dont know much about any of the foreign players

Outside of the left-handed shot, size, and statistical similarities, Russell just screams James Harden 2 to me, so I am not really thinking much of him in terms of defense anyhow. I think he will be the best scorer in this class.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:20 pm

rgdeuce wrote:To clarify, those were in addition to Stanley and Okafor. Dont know much about any of the foreign players

Outside of the left-handed shot, size, and statistical similarities, Russell just screams James Harden 2 to me, so I am not really thinking much of him in terms of defense anyhow. I think he will be the best scorer in this class.

I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:04 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley Johnson is one of only a very slim few players in this draft who have SUPERSTAR potential.

It is a very deep draft but IMO you have Okafor, Johnson and the Latvian 7-footer (next Dirk?). Those are my top 3 in no particular order.
I see Towns, Russell, Mudiay, and Winslow as guys who are going to be stars or superstars. I would be surprised if at least two of those four aren't.
I'm less convinced about Russell, and I see Okafor as a potential star. People rip his D, but it isn't like he can't improve on D as he plays in the pros. Russell was pretty sieve-like on D, so I don't really getting slotting him as higher potential than Okafor based on that factor.

Mudiay and Porzingis have the superstar tools. I feel better about Mudiay getting there. Porzingis is a boom/bust if I've ever seen one.

Towns and Winslow has the highest floors in the draft. This is an intriguing one because there's a lot of depth.

I remain a fan of the 538 analysis above (homeristically because it rates Arizona players highly). Guys like RHJ and TJ will fall (or not get picked) but a tough guy who can be a good to elite defender has more NBA potential than the draft usually reflects. We tend to produce a few of those guys.

Agree w/ all this especially on Russell.I'm just not seeing it with him

EOCT · Post by **EOCT** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:46 pm

I see Towns, Winslow and Porzingus as the future superstars, Porzingus as a bit of a project while the strength experts are building his body.

Porzingus. Dude has been playing against men and has an excellent record except in rebounding and overall D . But 7/1 with 3-5 more inches from span and top skills? Shoots really well, and has range. Said to be great in the pick and roll, and can both hedge and return quickly. Quick and fast, excellent lateral quickness to build D potential on. Ha+s handles. I think he's going to be the surprise in this class.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:51 pm

In terms of Russell, I get the Harden comparisons. I just see some Delonte West too. I don't think NBA teams are as averse to combo guards as they were, but Russell has some of the bad qualities associated with combo guards, and he's just not good on D.

If teams are going to put up with subpar D, he'd better be Harden level on offense. I'm not sure he is. Harden is 225, Russell is 180. Neither is super quick, but Harden uses his body really well. Russell still has growing, but right now, he doesn't have a body to use.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:53 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:To clarify, those were in addition to Stanley and Okafor. Dont know much about any of the foreign players

Outside of the left-handed shot, size, and statistical similarities, Russell just screams James Harden 2 to me, so I am not really thinking much of him in terms of defense anyhow. I think he will be the best scorer in this class.
I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.

Offensively, they view him as the combo guard who can handle the ball. That type of player who can handle the ball and has good vision, like Russell, typically plays in a PG role.

Im still not certain how Russell develops, but if he proves he is able to attack off the dribble and actually draw some fouls, he is going to be difficult to defend.

Defense is a completely different story.

Hobbes · Post by **Hobbes** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:06 pm

I see Towns, Okafor, Winslow, SJ, Mudiay as being future stars with superstar potential. I don't know enough about the top 2 international guys to judge whether or not they have that same level of potential. I am just really excited to see where the 4 UA guys go... I see SJ top 10, RHJ 15-25, Bash 35-60/Undrafted and TJ 40-60/Undrafted...

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:32 pm

TucsonClip, I'd always seen Russell as a natural 2 who can pass and handle better than most 2's, not as a scoring PG. Maybe that's just my vision, but I think if he's slotted in that role, he needs to be paired with a 2 who is a good distributor, otherwise you get a backcourt that is really ball dominant. Defensively, he needs a good running mate.

I wouldn't be shocked if we had two guys drafted, and wouldn't be shocked if we had four drafted. Neither Ash or TJ is nailed down in terms of position. I hear a lot of SJ to the Heat buzz, which would be a decent landing spot. Rondae, I just hope he gets a team that is defense first.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:24 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote: I'm intrigued by how many scouts see Russell as a PG.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:In terms of Russell, I get the Harden comparisons. I just see some Delonte West too. I don't think NBA teams are as averse to combo guards as they were, but Russell has some of the bad qualities associated with combo guards, and he's just not good on D.

If teams are going to put up with subpar D, he'd better be Harden level on offense. I'm not sure he is. Harden is 225, Russell is 180. Neither is super quick, but Harden uses his body really well. Russell still has growing, but right now, he doesn't have a body to use.

I don't think anyone sees him as a pure point. I think he is a combo right now, who will become a slightly undersized 2 like Wade or Harden should he not be able to handle extensive point guard duties with several seasons experience or minimal minutes at point early on. I much rather have him playing off the ball myself.

I posted some numbers around the time of the tournament comparing Russell to Harden because somebody wasn't seeing the comparison. At the same age, the numbers were almost identical across the board, with Russell playing in a tougher league. Obviously being very young he will fill out. Both are crafty as hell and Russell has an unbelievable handle. As his shooting range extends out in the NBA game, I would be shocked if he doesn't turn into a 25-28 ppg guy, unless he is needed to be a distributor as well. I just think he is going to be a nightmare to guard once everything comes together.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:19 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:TucsonClip, I'd always seen Russell as a natural 2 who can pass and handle better than most 2's, not as a scoring PG. Maybe that's just my vision, but I think if he's slotted in that role, he needs to be paired with a 2 who is a good distributor, otherwise you get a backcourt that is really ball dominant. Defensively, he needs a good running mate.

I wouldn't be shocked if we had two guys drafted, and wouldn't be shocked if we had four drafted. Neither Ash or TJ is nailed down in terms of position. I hear a lot of SJ to the Heat buzz, which would be a decent landing spot. Rondae, I just hope he gets a team that is defense first.

I dont think you need another distributor next to him per se (that obviously helps the team overall). You need another guy who can attack the basket and defend PGs and SGs next to him. If that player cant shoot, then you need a SF/PF who can stretch the floor.

I dont see him as a high-scoring guard like Harden (doesnt get to the FT line enough and doesnt bully his way to the rim). However, he has some Harden qualities with his vision, shooting and creation ability.

My take on Ashley (since he declared) was that he would get drafted. I think he's draftable and believe he fills a role in as a skilled 4 with room to grow offensively. Obviously, his motor and defense hold him back. Not sure he is selected now and he hasnt done himself any favors, especially in the 5 on 5 at the combine.

Still dont think TJ is drafted, but he's a guy that will have plenty of training camp invites. I think thats a better opportunity for him than being drafted late in the 2nd.

Ive told everyone I know connected to the Heat organization that Stanley is the right fit and hes the guy they need to take. They havent given me any feedback, but thats where I want to see him land. No idea about his camp, but thats a perfect match for both parties.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:29 pm

Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay

Hobbes · Post by **Hobbes** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:44 pm

3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay

No way.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:54 pm

Hobbes wrote:
3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
No way.

I thought it seems unlikely.

JMarkJohns · Post by **JMarkJohns** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:55 pm

I don't think there's any way Stanley drops beyond 13. Gambo basically said as much. Suns don't expect him, but will take him if he slips.

But I'm not doing my homework this draft due to some medical issues simultaneous to moving. So we'll see.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:00 pm

3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay

I have a really hard time seeing Dekker and Hunter (among others) jump Stan. The big guy/little guy dynamic is always an unknown, because you don't know what teams are drafting for, but those guys are in direct comparison to Stan, and unless SJ is falling hard, I don't see how they overtake him.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:22 pm

3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay

If he slips to 15 someone is getting an amazing value.

Just from watching the five minute or so Porzingas tape that he put out a couple weeks ago, I thought he could eventually end up being considered a bust at the 8th pick in the draft. At potentially 2,3, or 4 in the draft he would seem to have a significant chance of being eventually considered a bust.

Oh and I love SI's talk about Delon Wright being a sleeper in the 25-30 area. Teams in that area are generally pretty talented so they might not necessarily be looking for an immediate starter at that pick, be Delon is 1) a very good player who 2) isn't some 19 year old punk and who 3) can probably give you minutes at the 1, 2 or 3 which can be very, very valuable considering they'd only be paying him about a million dollars a year for four years.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:02 pm

My guesses:

Stan 9th
Rondae 19th
Brandon 40th
TJ 44th

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:30 pm

Jefe wrote:My guesses:

Stan 9th
Rondae 19th
Brandon 40th
TJ 44th

WOW Wishful thinking! I hope you are correct!

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:53 pm

Latest Draftexpress as of yesterday:

SJ 8th to Detroit
RHJ 22nd to Chicago
TJ & BA undrafted

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:56 pm

84Cat wrote:Latest Draftexpress as of yesterday:

SJ 8th to Detroit
RHJ 22nd to Chicago
TJ & BA undrafted

I wouldnt be shocked if TJ goes over BASH. BASH def shouldve stayed on more year and to get the degree he is going to need.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:29 pm

Jefe wrote:My guesses:

Stan 9th
Rondae 19th
Brandon 40th
TJ 44th

I think this is about right.

All 4 are getting drafted.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:16 pm

SCCats wrote:
3goggles wrote:Stanley is dropping to 15 according to this Mock Draft.

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/23/nba-mo ... uel-mudiay
If he slips to 15 someone is getting an amazing value.

Just from watching the five minute or so Porzingas tape that he put out a couple weeks ago, I thought he could eventually end up being considered a bust at the 8th pick in the draft. At potentially 2,3, or 4 in the draft he would seem to have a significant chance of being eventually considered a bust.

Oh and I love SI's talk about Delon Wright being a sleeper in the 25-30 area. Teams in that area are generally pretty talented so they might not necessarily be looking for an immediate starter at that pick, be Delon is 1) a very good player who 2) isn't some 19 year old punk and who 3) can probably give you minutes at the 1, 2 or 3 which can be very, very valuable considering they'd only be paying him about a million dollars a year for four years.

Wright is a guy who will never be a star but could be a rotation guy for the next ten years. He seems like the kind of guy the Spurs would be all over. Super high efficiency and multiskilled. If he falls in that range, he is a steal.

SJ goes right around #10, Rondae 20-30. Ashley and TJ could go anywhere in the second round or not at all. Who knows with those two? UDFA is a good thing for TJ, though.

JMarkJohns · Post by **JMarkJohns** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:58 pm

Some very smart, very forward-thinking team will get a great rotation player in Wright. Bulls, Cavs, Spurs, maybe even the Warriors if he slips.

I figure:

Stanley: 7-13 (8-10) - Pistons, Heat, Pacers, Suns
Rondae: 12-24 (13-20) - Suns, Hawks, Celtics, Raptors
TJ: 45-UDFA (45, 55, or UDFA) - Celtics, Spurs, Warriors
Brandon: 45-UDFA (53, 56, 59, or UDFA) - Cavs, Pelicans, Hawks

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:46 am

Arizona basketball: Cats could make history at Thursday's draft
Having two players in first round, four overall would be a program first.

http://tucson.com/sports/#utm_source=tu ... erm=sports

I like it JM!

Hope that Brandon and TJ get there.

I figure:

Stanley: 7-13 (8-10) - Pistons, Heat, Pacers, Suns
Rondae: 12-24 (13-20) - Suns, Hawks, Celtics, Raptors
TJ: 45-UDFA (45, 55, or UDFA) - Celtics, Spurs, Warriors
Brandon: 45-UDFA (53, 56, 59, or UDFA) - Cavs, Pelicans, H

JMarkJohns · Post by **JMarkJohns** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:38 am

Ashley in Gentry's system alongside Anthony Davis in a few years is an ideal situation. He has the stroke to stretch the floor, good length for weak-side, rotation defense, and just enough off the dribble/post game to be a nice bail out in the lane when Davis gets doubled/tripled.

Pelicans select at 56. I'd think that's Ashley's best spot. The coach, the scheme, the fit, it's all ideal. Could be groomed into Ryan Anderson's replacement.

azcat34 · Post by **azcat34** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:30 am

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”

Brandon Ashley, 6’9” forward, Arizona: “I’m just not sold on him. He shows you flashes, but he’s been the same player since I first saw him four or five years ago. He’s a good enough shooter that you’ve got to honor it. He’s a tease. Somebody will take him in the second round off height and talent, but I don’t think he plays in the NBA right now.”

Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:09 am

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:11 am

azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”

Brandon Ashley, 6’9” forward, Arizona: “I’m just not sold on him. He shows you flashes, but he’s been the same player since I first saw him four or five years ago. He’s a good enough shooter that you’ve got to honor it. He’s a tease. Somebody will take him in the second round off height and talent, but I don’t think he plays in the NBA right now.”

Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”

I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.

The rest isn't particularly surprising.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:39 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
azcat34 wrote: Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”
I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.

The rest isn't particularly surprising.

His shot is flat and his release point is low. Thats an easy fix. He shot 74% from the line, hit a lot of pull up mid-range jumpers and proved that he can connect on the corner 3. I dont have much of an issue with his jumper at all as its something that will be tweaked over a few summers.

His mid-range game impressed me. He draws fouls and he has the ability to create off the dribble. That is the top skill in the NBA. Players who can create their own shot and draw fouls are as valuable as any. SJ can be that kind of guy down the road.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:51 am

TucsonClip wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
azcat34 wrote: Stanley Johnson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He has the tools to defend at an elite level. Offensively you saw some improvement. His work ethic and competitiveness lead me to believe he will develop a jumper eventually. The downside is there’s no upward mobility physically. He is who he is. As you move up a level, you can’t punk guys like you did in high school. He’s going to see Wesley Matthews, who is built like he is. He’s got a body like Ron Artest. He had a lot of shots blocked because he has stubby arms.”
I'm a tad surprised that is so negative about SJ's jumper. It isn't the best, but it isn't absent (like Rondae). There were a few games towards the end of the year where he really seemed to have hit a stride with his J. Unfortunately, a lot of that got lost in the Wiscy flameout.

The rest isn't particularly surprising.
His shot is flat and his release point is low. Thats an easy fix. He shot 74% from the line, hit a lot of pull up mid-range jumpers and proved that he can connect on the corner 3. I dont have much of an issue with his jumper at all as its something that will be tweaked over a few summers.

His mid-range game impressed me. He draws fouls and he has the ability to create off the dribble. That is the top skill in the NBA. Players who can create their own shot and draw fouls are as valuable as any. SJ can be that kind of guy down the road.

I agree. Rondae needs to develop a jumper. Stanley needs to refine his jumper.

WildHolcs · Post by **WildHolcs** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:54 am

My wish would be Rondae falling to the Spurs a 26 - but he'll prob go earlier. RHJ getting coached up by Pop and working on his shot with Chip would do wonders for his game. I doubt he would become the next Kawhi, but he has a lot of similar measurables/skills Kawhi did coming out of college.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:55 am

azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”

This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?

That to me just seems like a huge risk to take when you didn't need to take the risk at all and could instead have come back to Arizona for another year and continue to be developed and take your time to work on these things so you know you're ready, not just hope you're ready.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:00 pm

SCCats wrote:
azcat34 wrote:http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... uel-mudiay

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 6’7” forward, Arizona: “He’s the best defender in the draft, but he’s going to have to be Bruce Bowen because his shooting is completely broken. It needs surgery, not just a tweak. Look what happened to Tony Allen, and Rondae is 10 times worse than Tony Allen as a shooter. Highest motor in the draft. He can’t shoot, but to his credit he doesn’t take shots that hurt you.”
This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?

That to me just seems like a huge risk to take when you didn't need to take the risk at all and could instead have come back to Arizona for another year and continue to be developed and take your time to work on these things so you know you're ready, not just hope you're ready.

You don't develop a J during games. You do get a guaranteed contract if you go first round.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:34 pm

SCCats wrote:
This analysis is why I made the argument a while back the Rondae should probably come back; his jump shot is broken/non-existent. Some made the argument that everyone makes, that he will develop it later. But if he gets picked by a team in the mid 20s, a team that will make the playoffs and will thus be fighting for playoff position all year and needing players on the court who can help them win games right now, is that Rondae who basically can't shoot jumpers and who will thus create spacing problems, etc for his team? Will he get that floor time to develop, or will he be shunted aside to make way for someone who can better help their team win games right now and help their playoff position right now?

That to me just seems like a huge risk to take when you didn't need to take the risk at all and could instead have come back to Arizona for another year and continue to be developed and take your time to work on these things so you know you're ready, not just hope you're ready.

Yes, Rondae is exactly the type of guy you want on your team during a crucial playoff game. Now, if he cant shoot he isnt going to play more than 15 minutes, but you also put him in a lineup to succeed and where he can make an impact off the bench defensively.

You dont need another year in college to develop your jumper. If you're ready for the NBA, jumper or not, you go. He's ready.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:01 pm

Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.

People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?

Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?

If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.

So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:45 pm

SCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.

People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?

Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?

If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.

So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.

Let me ask you this...

Do you think Rondae can improve his jumper (and overall game) enough next season at Arizona that he climbs into the top 10? Now weigh the possibility that his jumper doesnt improve and teams just begin to see him as a back of the first round defender who plays really hard.

Is the risk of jumping 5-10 spots worth risking falling to the back of the 1st? Is not declaring so you can make a marginal amount more over the first 4-5 seasons worth it? Keep in mind the TV deal is ready to kick in, the salary cap is rising dramatically the next three seasons and the rookie scale is set to remain in tact until the players opt out of the new CBA.

Rondae declaring now starts the clock on his second contract, which means a large payday. I dont see him flopping out of the league because of his athleticism, length and defense.

So again, is it really worth the risk of an additional year for scouts to pick you apart, risk injury and push your big payday back a year just to move up 5-10 spots?

To me the answer is clearly no. If you are Brandon Ashley, the decision would be different (even though I understand he just wants to get paid by someone).

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:57 pm

SCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.

People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?

Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?

If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.

So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Bov7AIaGMw

That's a statistical analysis of early entry, earning potential and player production.

It's a nice confirmation of something I've pointed out for a while. There is no convincing correlation between more years in college and success as an NBA player or greater earnings. It is about the individual, not how many years in college they spend.

Too often, fans preach about staying as if it is a magic bullet. It isn't.

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:10 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
SCCats wrote:Time will tell. The statistics are probably out there as to the typical differences in career earnings between the typical player being picked 25th, 20th, 15th, 10th and so on and my guess is they're pretty stark. As I've mentioned before, it just seems like taking a significant risk right now that he doesn't need to take right now, and he's taking that risk so he can right now start a 4 year 5 million dollar contract.

People will say "He's ready" and "Take the guaranteed money" but it's a short sided view. And perhaps a very short sided view, particularly when that money (or better) will be there next year or any year he chooses to go. But people like to rush, rush, rush. The people around you say "You're ready, you're ready, you're ready." Ready for what? To get that 4 year 5 million dollar contract? Sure. But what else?

Is he ready to be a $10M a year player who gets endorsements? To create the type of wealth that's considered generational and not just aspirational?

If someone could say that, then he's really ready. But nobody possibly could. Not when he can't perform (at almost any level per scouts) the most important offensive skill there is.

So he takes the roll of his dice. I hope he rolls well. A decision matrix with expected values probably says it's the wrong choice. But it's not my wrong choice so /shrug.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Bov7AIaGMw

That's a statistical analysis of early entry, earning potential and player production.

It's a nice confirmation of something I've pointed out for a while. There is no convincing correlation between more years in college and success as an NBA player or greater earnings. It is about the individual, not how many years in college they spend.

Too often, fans preach about staying as if it is a magic bullet. It isn't.

Been saying that for a long time, my friend. Good find, I will have to give that a read.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:28 pm

Do you think Rondae can improve his jumper (and overall game) enough next season at Arizona that he climbs into the top 10?

Yes. And if he can't get as good as he needs in one year, he's got another left to keep working on it.

Now weigh the possibility that his jumper doesnt improve and teams just begin to see him as a back of the first round defender who plays really hard.

I would say that's probably already how they see him.

Is the risk of jumping 5-10 spots worth risking falling to the back of the 1st?

I see the difference between a four year 6 million, 4 year 5 million and 4 year 4 million contract as negligible. So for me the difference between potentially getting picked 22 this year and 26th next year would not be a worry.

Rondae declaring now starts the clock on his second contract, which means a large payday.

This is a mistake in mindset I think people make: the clock is largely unimportant. As far as your life goes, 5 years 50 million is going to feel very similar to 6 years 60 million. It's the getting of the second massive contract that's important. Everything should be put towards getting that second contract.

I dont see him flopping out of the league because of his athleticism, length and defense.

He'll likely be in the league ten years. It's just hugely different to make 2 million a year in those last six years after your rookie contract versus 10 million+ a year in the six years after your rookie contract. Just being there isn't the important thing; you don't want to be eating the scraps, you want the full meal.

So again, is it really worth the risk of an additional year for scouts to pick you apart, risk injury and push your big payday back a year just to move up 5-10 spots?

Again for me the exact placement is of much less importance. Being the best basketball player you can be and being just as ready as you can possibly be is what I think is important. I want the team that drafts me to see me come into our first day of practice and say "Your game is great. You're a starter. Already we can't wait to give you a huge extension."

As opposed to "We think we need to start you off in the D league and you need to work on your shot like crazy. Hopefully it can come around."

To me the answer is clearly no.

Different people look at the same situation and see different risks and rewards. It happens all the time.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:47 pm

The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:53 pm

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... Bov7AIaGMw

52 pages? Did you read all that??

There is no convincing correlation between more years in college and success as an NBA player or greater earnings. It is about the individual, not how many years in college they spend.

I'm not even sure I can understand what those two sentences, written back to back, mean in relation to one another.

What I have no problem saying is I have seen players who have stayed in school and gone on to have fabulous NBA careers. These same players, who generally stayed three or four years in university, in my opinion and thinking back to how some of these guys played as freshman, would have had significant chances of being absolutely crushed in the league if they have gone to the NBA straight out of high school or after just one year and if they hadn't been "crushed" would have had a significant chances of having a much lessor career.

But believe me, I know the mantra because everyone sings it: "He'll develop it later. I mean really, what can he learn in one more year of school? He can get that clock ticking..."

'Seriously, that's the way to get it done. One year or two years of school and then go pro. I mean what are you really going to learn in year three and four? And you can't get rich honing your skills in college for four years. Get the clock ticking!'

Sincerely,

Tim Duncan

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:57 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.

I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.

The risk reward looks fubar. You're risking dollars in an attempt to grab a couple extra pennies.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:08 pm

Here's another one for ScCats, only six pages this time, that explicitly concludes that the younger the draftee, the better their chance of NBA success.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1869144

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:12 pm

SCCats wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.
I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.

The risk reward looks fubar. You're risking dollars in an attempt to grab a couple extra pennies.

Seriously, read my links. I read both in full, and really ALL statistical data either shows no correlation or that the earlier a player enters the draft, the better he does.

It's a myth that college prepares someone better.

dcZONAfan · Post by **dcZONAfan** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:47 pm

SCCats wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:The $ difference is accelerating Contract #2, not worrying about where you fall in the rookie scale. You can make up basically your entire rookie contract in a single year or less under the new cap.
I don't mean this as an attack on you, but when I see this I see: Short sided attempted money grab where you're potentially putting the best, most lucrative part of your career in jeopardy in an attempt to grab a couple hundred thousand or perhaps a million more dollars.

The risk reward looks fubar. You're risking dollars in an attempt to grab a couple extra pennies.

Are you really trying to convince people here that Rondae has a better chance of improving his jump shot in college (when he is part-time athlete part-time student) than he does on an NBA roster with better shooting coaches and more time spent every day on his craft?

You, sir, are making very little sense. You simply sound like an incredibly sour and selfish fan. Poo-pooing 5 million dollars like that's nothing when it will literally change the lives of Rondae's entire family immediately. GOOD FUCKING LORD

Login • Register