Arizona in the 2015 NBA Draft

TucsonClip · Post by **TucsonClip** » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:12 pm

SCCats wrote:Yes. And if he can't get as good as he needs in one year, he's got another left to keep working on it.

So someone who is ready to play in the NBA at nearly every other skill they have, should return to college to work on their jumper? Completely disagree and so would any scout in regards to RHJ.

I would say that's probably already how they see him.

If he is still around after 23 I would be shocked. He's likely to go in the middle third of the draft tomorrow. So I guess we will see, because I disagree again.

I see the difference between a four year 6 million, 4 year 5 million and 4 year 4 million contract as negligible. So for me the difference between potentially getting picked 22 this year and 26th next year would not be a worry.

How would it not be a worry? Its called net present value. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. I really don't see RHJ ever going top 10 in any of the next 2 drafts. So if he's a mid-teen or early-20s pick this year, why go back to school to work on you jumper in order to move up to the back of the lottery?

This is a mistake in mindset I think people make: the clock is largely unimportant. As far as your life goes, 5 years 50 million is going to feel very similar to 6 years 60 million. It's the getting of the second massive contract that's important. Everything should be put towards getting that second contract.

My point with this is that Rondae can see the cap rising substantially the next few seasons. He's literally ready to be a lock down defender in the NBA tomorrow, but he does need to work on his shot. Either way, I don't see him crashing out of the league. He has an elite skill and one that will be in high regard until his athleticism begins to decline.

I agree the goal should be to LAND that massive 2nd contract, but you also want him to stay in college and delay guaranteed money just to work on his jumper. I don't see the correlation between the two right now. He's going to work just as hard, if not more, on his jumper in the NBA with unlimited support of trainers and coaches. That will not be the case if he returns to Arizona.

He'll likely be in the league ten years. It's just hugely different to make 2 million a year in those last six years after your rookie contract versus 10 million+ a year in the six years after your rookie contract. Just being there isn't the important thing; you don't want to be eating the scraps, you want the full meal.

Again, I agree with what you are saying, I just don't agree with the reasoning.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:28 am

Are there a lot of examples out there of kids that have stayed around and improved their jump shots significantly? Derrick Williams did it, but to be fair, he simply didn't shoot from deep his first year, so it's hard to tell. Rondae's jump shot is bad. Really bad. And he supposedly put a ton of time in on it over the past summer, so I can see where he might think that doing the same over yet another summer wouldn't help much at all.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:47 am

Puerco wrote:Are there a lot of examples out there of kids that have stayed around and improved their jump shots significantly? Derrick Williams did it, but to be fair, he simply didn't shoot from deep his first year, so it's hard to tell. Rondae's jump shot is bad. Really bad. And he supposedly put a ton of time in on it over the past summer, so I can see where he might think that doing the same over yet another summer wouldn't help much at all.

There are examples like Solomon Hill. It is no given, but it isn't going to change without work.

Staying in college isn't what determines it, though.

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:57 am

Stanley's not shy under the lights..

Johnson downplays notion he's 'slipped'

NEW YORK – Even before he put on an Arizona Wildcats uniform last fall, Stanley Johnson was a projected top five pick in the 2015 NBA draft.

He was most of last season, too. But in the weeks that have led up to Thursday’s NBA draft, the mock boards say he’s “slipped” to a range now expected to be between eighth and 12th.

Or has he?

“Everybody needs a story,” Johnson said. “They have to make something happen. Have to get people to view their stories.”

While fellow first-round prospect Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
appears to be in the same 15-25 range he’s been in for months, the stories about Johnson suggest his offense “is kind of a mess” (Sports Illustrated, quoting an NBA official) among other things.

Johnson says otherwise.

“I expect great things. I hold myself to a high standard,” Johnson said. “I believe I’m the best player in the draft so I gotta play like that.”

http://tucson.com/sports/basketball/col ... ce9e7.html

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:43 am

HiCat wrote:Stanley's not shy under the lights..

Johnson downplays notion he's 'slipped'

NEW YORK – Even before he put on an Arizona Wildcats uniform last fall, Stanley Johnson was a projected top five pick in the 2015 NBA draft.

He was most of last season, too. But in the weeks that have led up to Thursday’s NBA draft, the mock boards say he’s “slipped” to a range now expected to be between eighth and 12th.

Or has he?

“Everybody needs a story,” Johnson said. “They have to make something happen. Have to get people to view their stories.”

While fellow first-round prospect Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
appears to be in the same 15-25 range he’s been in for months, the stories about Johnson suggest his offense “is kind of a mess” (Sports Illustrated, quoting an NBA official) among other things.

Johnson says otherwise.

“I expect great things. I hold myself to a high standard,” Johnson said. “I believe I’m the best player in the draft so I gotta play like that.”

http://tucson.com/sports/basketball/col ... ce9e7.html

Seems like college hurt his stock but helped his game!

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:10 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:Here's another one for ScCats, only six pages this time, that explicitly concludes that the younger the draftee, the better their chance of NBA success.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1869144

Next you're going to tell me "Recent analysis has shown that those drafted at the age of 19 are statistically the ones who make the most money in the NBA."

I didn't read either paper, but why don't you tell me why it's true that (and I agree the statement itself is almost certainly true), and I quote, "the (1) younger the (2) draftee, the (3) better the chance of NBA success."

I think we're getting a little into the weeds here, but my answer to that would be that would be that basketball is a sport where you can show your talent at a very young age. So already at 17, 18, 19 the NBA has a pretty good understanding of who is super talented. At a young age those super talented kids make themselves available for the draft, get drafted, and eventually make a lion's share of the wages in the NBA.

That can be understood. But what does that fact have to do with Rondae's jumper?

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:35 am

dcZONAfan wrote:You, sir, are making very little sense.

We'll see.

You simply sound like an incredibly sour and selfish fan.

Why?

Let me see if I can guess why you think that, but be sure to correct me if I'm wrong. In reading my posts, you think that I'm saying right now, at 9:16 am on June 25th, Rondae should make the decision to stay in school. That right now, that's the right choice to be made and that's the way he should go.

But of course we all know he has already irrevocably put his name into the NBA draft, a draft that in fact occurs TODAY.

The choice has been made. Is it the right choice? Hopefully his career will be so ridiculously successful that nobody in the future will even consider going back and considering what might have been.

In the alternative, if having a discussion about how to get Arizona players the absolute most money over their careers makes me "incredibly sour and selfish", then I am happy to accept the moniker.

Poo-pooing 5 million dollars like that's nothing when it will literally change the lives of Rondae's entire family immediately. GOOD FUCKING LORD

Ahh you were the one that interjected this idea before, when we had previously been discussing this some weeks back I assume.

Look, he has obligations he wants to take care of right now that's his business and a different discussion, by the way, then the one we are having right now which is "How do you maximize your earning potential over your career?"

Are you really trying to convince people here that Rondae has a better chance of improving his jump shot in college (when he is part-time athlete part-time student) than he does on an NBA roster with better shooting coaches and more time spent every day on his craft?

Now we're getting to the rub. I agree this is the important question.

I would ask you a question: can you see it as being possible that a better way to better his jump shot might be to go to Sean and tell him you need his help to work on this specific area, a thing Sean would probably love to do and would put the time and resources toward that endeavor even though it would mean having to (half heatedly) lug some books around for a while longer might be a better way to go than putting your name into a draft where you will 1) get picked by a random organization (could be a crappy one) who 2) you have no clue if their interests are exactly aligned with yours and who 3) you have no way of knowing if their resources measure up to what you need all while 4) traveling every third day for eight months grinding out an 82 game schedule?

And in the end, couldn't he have always stayed one more year and tried to work on his jumper, and if that didn't work out great then at that point avail himself of those NBA services?

People think the NBA is the end all be all, but players fall through the cracks all the time. Again I hope Rondae won't be one of them and that his career will be so wildly successful that a backward looking analysis will be pointless.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:38 am

Too much risk to stay for someone like Rondae a 3rd year, he did the right thing. Think he goes in the 15-17 range

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:28 am

SCCats wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:Here's another one for ScCats, only six pages this time, that explicitly concludes that the younger the draftee, the better their chance of NBA success.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1869144
Next you're going to tell me "Recent analysis has shown that those drafted at the age of 19 are statistically the ones who make the most money in the NBA."

I didn't read either paper, but why don't you tell me why it's true that (and I agree the statement itself is almost certainly true), and I quote, "the (1) younger the (2) draftee, the (3) better the chance of NBA success."

I think we're getting a little into the weeds here, but my answer to that would be that would be that basketball is a sport where you can show your talent at a very young age. So already at 17, 18, 19 the NBA has a pretty good understanding of who is super talented. At a young age those super talented kids make themselves available for the draft, get drafted, and eventually make a lion's share of the wages in the NBA.

That can be understood. But what does that fact have to do with Rondae's jumper?

It's true because statistically, younger draftees produce better (the studies measure by career PER amd win shares).

The part of your posts I have an issue with is the conclusion that more time in college = better prepared for the NBA. There is no historical correlation. Rondae can develop his J (or not) just as much in the pros as in college. My basic point is that whether he does or does not depends on Rondae, not another season at Arizona.

Are there players who develop in an extra college season? Of course. That does not mean the extra season in college was the reason for that development. Again, cycling back to stats, that is why it matters that there is no statistical correlation.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:31 am

Wouldnt be shocked if Stanley went before Justise. He should actually

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:04 pm

Jefe wrote:Wouldnt be shocked if Stanley went before Justise. He should actually

I'm not sure about that. Winslow is a better defender. Offensively, they are pretty comparable. SJ is a better shooter and stronger, but that's it.

whatisee · Post by **whatisee** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:25 pm

Iggy showed the importance of having a defender that can platy a variety of positions. RHJ would have ate Curry's lunch.

He might fall, or he could make a jump on his defensive prowess alone

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:35 pm

NBA players practice?

What does Allen Iverson say about that?

NBA season is 82 games, and a tremendous amount of travel.

And like Steve Nash said, a lot of it is spend napping.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:19 pm

Oh man.....

mofo · Post by **mofo** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:22 pm

"breathe" Haha! That would be nerve wracking.

Coop Cat · Post by **Coop Cat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:42 pm

That is one to regret.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:51 pm

Coop Cat wrote:That is one to regret.

Good Info I thought he was dude behind RHJ in the red suit. I thought he saved the famous haircut.

threenumberones · Post by **threenumberones** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:00 pm

I haven't been this interested in an NBA draft in years..

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:20 pm

Coop Cat wrote:That is one to regret.

If he accidentally exposed himself, he might truly be the next LeBron.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:35 pm

ESPN Radio is not playing the NBA Draft. I thought the Draft was strating at 7pm Est?

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:36 pm

7 pm Pacific. I don't know why there haven't been picks yet

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:37 pm

It has started.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:40 pm

Towns to the Wolves as expected.

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:31 pm

SJ to the Pistons

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:31 pm

SJ #8 pick to the pistons!

whatisee · Post by **whatisee** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:33 pm

Anything can happen from this point forward...lol

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:34 pm

Congratulations, Stanley!

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:34 pm

Jefe wrote:Wouldnt be shocked if Stanley went before Justise. He should actually

U called it

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:34 pm

Congrats to Stanimal

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:40 pm

Miller keeps building his first rounder/lottery resume too.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:42 pm

As a Piston fan, I'm ecstatic about this. There haven't been very many Arizona guys to come through Detroit. Stan can be their franchise player.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:47 pm

So fucking happy for Stanimal.

Hobbes · Post by **Hobbes** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:55 pm

Good luck to you Stanley!

psiclist23 · Post by **psiclist23** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:05 pm

Why does each team take so long? They must have game-planned every possible combo of picks ahead of them? If it's this, we do that. Right? I've never understood that.

And btw, I don't get the hoopla over Russel. Didn't TJ outplay him?

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:16 pm

psiclist23 wrote:Why does each team take so long? They must have game-planned every possible combo of picks ahead of them? If it's this, we do that. Right? I've never understood that.

And btw, I don't get the hoopla over Russel. Didn't TJ outplay him?

i imagine it's deciding between team needs vs. best available player remaining, yes, as well as making some phone calls and talking possible trades with the other teams before pulling the trigger

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:30 pm

Bilas hates RHJ apparently.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:43 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:Bilas hates RHJ apparently.

Does he even have him in the 1st round? What an idiot. I thought we found out in the NBA finals that defense is pretty important.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:08 pm

Thought for sure Bulls would take RHJ.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:10 pm

Portland takes him. Congrats!

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:11 pm

Are they going to flip him to another team now?

BBQ wildcat · Post by **BBQ wildcat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:13 pm

Congratulations, Stan and Rondae!! First round!

Hobbes · Post by **Hobbes** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:15 pm

RHJ!!! Good luck to one of my all time favorites in Porland!

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:18 pm

Chicat wrote:Are they going to flip him to another team now?

Rumors to Brooklyn already.

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:21 pm

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:15 pm

psiclist23 wrote:Why does each team take so long? They must have game-planned every possible combo of picks ahead of them? If it's this, we do that. Right? I've never understood that.

And btw, I don't get the hoopla over Russel. Didn't TJ outplay him?

You gauging a guy based off one game? An off night coupled with the fact he had elite defenders on him all night. Regardless, you could still see his tools that day. How much have you seen him otherwise? A lot of smart people think he will be the biggest superstar in this draft. May or may not happen, but i think its pretty obvious why people are so high on him

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:28 pm

Do we see TJ and Bash get called tonight?

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:28 pm

dirtbags wrote:

Any things else on this?

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:30 pm

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:38 pm

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:41 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:

East coast kid is going to be closer to his fam! Congrats RHJ!

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